WEEKLY OUTLOOK - Feb 2-7 #GOLD #EURO #GBP #JPY
Please take note that following United Stares official announcement of tariff imposition, I have updated my previous weekly article.
Trump formally agreed to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% additional tariff on China.
Import prices will rise as a result of the tariff, and consumers will pay the higher price.
There are advantages and disadvantages. If imported goods are manufactured locally, it should boost the domestic market, generate jobs, and raise revenue collection. But, it is too soon to predict how much cash flow will rise.
Canada has said that their counter plan is in progress. Canada is also going to impose 25% levies in response to the U.S. tariffs.on CAD 155 billion, or USD 106 billion, worth of imports from the United States. It is anticipated that CAD 30 billion will go into effect on Tuesday, and CAD 125 billion over the next 21 days.
Nearly 60% of Canada's crude oil exports, or 4 million barrels per day, go to the US, which will raise the price of diesel.
And we will have to wait and watch how Mexico reacts. The economy minister has already been asked by the President to respond back to protect their country's interest.
China's foreign spokesperson has said "China firmly deplores and opposes this move and will take necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests".
Importantly, both (Canada/Mexica) exports are estimated to contribute close to 20% of the US GDP. Therefore, it goes without saying that such countermeasures will cause inflation.
However, it will also keep Europe and other nations on edge until it is quickly resolved or postponed for negotiations.
The counterattacks from the other side, could impact the global financial landscape.
In the meantime, Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption E(PCE), which showed an increase in headline prices and core inflation that stayed high, does not suggest a rate decrease. Because of ongoing inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers may postpone lowering interest rates for a while. They will continue to rely on data because of the Fed's cautious viewpoint.
Following its January 24 rate hike of 0.25%, the BOJ may yet raise rates as a result of ongoing inflationary pressures. Japan's CPI has increased at the quickest rate in almost a year, which has kept demand for Japanese yen. Interest rates will probably be raised by the BOJ if inflation stays steady and wage growth continues to be strong. At this pace, the increase in interest rates and monetary support might be combined.
Even though the Federal Reserve's decision to pause on Wednesday, due to economic concerns, the European Central Bank had to cut its deposit rate by an additional 1/4 percentage point to 2.75% last week.
Meanwhile, recent data of weakness in the British economy suggest that interest rates may be lowered. The Bank of England may lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% on Thursday, which would put pressure on the value of the Pound Sterling.
However, the market will undoubtedly pay attention to the release of economic data in order to provide guidance. Early this week, the ADP employment, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will be made public.
In addition to the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and US weekly jobless claims data will be revealed later this week.
Potential Market Reaction To Tariff
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