InvestorLabs

Geng pro crypto semua sceptic.
kata 100k -120k ja. berapa upside tu?

although we all know bitcoin can go anywhere but I prefer to stick with professional consensus and discount it with 40% margin of safety. Why 40%? Coz it’s ultra risky instrument.

And that is 120k, 50% upside. Worth the hype?

If it takes 2-3 years to realize, baik go for multibagger stocks with lesser risk profile.

This is my bias opinion. 👌🏻

Just went back from Iceland.
I ponder a lot about life.

1. S&P 500 has been doubling since then and had went up 11% since my last disposal in June 2024. I have secure my profits with Wahed dengan realized CAGR 4 year of 23.09%. Untuk yang kurang faham, ia bermaksud saya berjaya kembangkan modal saya 23% setiap tahun sepanjang 4 tahun. As retailer cabuk, this is impressive achievement. (**exclude my stocks portfolio which also >25% CAGR)

This is also a living proof by staying invested in the market despite all the noises truly rewarding over long run. I have done it and so many before me.

Stay put is harder than selling stocks. Buying stock is the easiest mental process.

2. We know by historical trend market US memang jarang bull setahun and almost never bear on 2nd year of bull especially waktu presidential election year. Jadi bull pada tahun ini adalah suatu yang ramai dah jangka dan anticipate. I remain cautiously optimistic with market since 2022.

3. We also know inflation has been steadily stabilized and economy has reopened. Both are good for stocks. But i am still concern with current stage we are in especially after Trump winning the election. Here's why

4. Berdasarkan pengamatan cetek saya terhadap Trump 1.0, apa saya nampak, pada jangka masa panjang kesan kempen politik Trumpism adalah paradoxical dengan misi yang beliau bawa. Kalau pada Trump 1.0 kita nampak Trump lebih bersederhana berkaitan perang, I can hardly tell Trump 2.0 will 'behave' well. Dan as expected, semalam kecoh Trump menggugat dasar imigran Amerika. Berjuta hilang tempat tinggal. This can shake economy and make unemployment rate skyrocket seterusnya depress stock market valuation.

5. Unlike Biden, Trump yang sebelum ni skeptikal dengan crypto tidak semena menjadi seorang yang tengah 'ghairah' nak ketengahkan crypto in his reign. We saw crypto hits all time high $80,000. He proof to us again that he's hardly predictable.

6. I still remember US government beli 1 juta bitcoin and tubuhkan reserve bitcoin nasional sendiri. Since this movement, ramailah HOLDers yang berkompang. Dalam setiap bubble, it force US govt to print more money and this further makes US Dollar value down.

Over long run, dedolarisation memang akan terkabul.
Banyak usaha yang push ke arah ni termasuklah BRICS. Kita akan saksikan cryto memang berjaya menggantikan US dollar tapi crypto juga akan 'mati' bersama-sama dollar. Crypto will win, but the victory is short lived.

Orang yang forever long with crypto or people who kept dollars forever will completely wiped out. Saya hanya quote bacaan dari telahan Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist. Interesting to ponder and think best strategy for actions.

7. We also still remember, the anatomy of bull market tu sendiri
ada 4 fasa. Kalau relate to BTC chart, we can see

Fasa 1 : Jan 2023 - Jan 2024
Fasa 2: Feb 2024 - first week Nov 2024.
Fasa 3: This is euphoria stage. It starts 5.11.24 waktu Trump menang
Don't be suprised if you see waktu ni VC, hedge fund hatta private mandate berpusu-pusu ligan crypto and promote this asset. The next 12 month will be complete madness. I still think dollar cost averaging untuk crypto strategi yang selamat.

Fasa 4 adalah fasa yang sangat menggerunkan. Let's hope we have ample cash reserve by that time.

Menarik bila fahami crypto cycle. It's exactly different with stocks market. Punyalah unik market crypto ni sampai ada cryptoexpert gelar crypto ni aset cendawan sebab cycle turun naik ibarat kulat yang sedang reproduksi.

I have many more thoughts to share.
I am curious with where market is teaching me.

ANTARA BULL, BUBBLE dan CRYPTO

Sebelum saya proceed any further, saya nak letak disclaimer terlebih dahulu. I am not a certified stock market analyst, VC, fund manager, apatah lagi sophisticated investor. I'll be embarking side journey as certified unit trust consultant sebagai ikthiar saya empower bumiputera terhadap equiti, sukuk & pelaburan. Please take my sharing and thoughts as tiny bits of salts and pepper during breakfast. I am human too. I am delightful to share I have clear all positions in all asset class and I am now in journey to clear all my debts with snowball method. Sejak mula belajar investing in stocks 8 years ago, it truly mengajar saya kenal diri lebih dari sebelum ini. Bak kata Li Lu, investing is a game of discovery.

To begin, 2024 is truly an interesting year. I still remember purchasing Wahed HLAL 16 april 2020 waktu housemanship di HKL, waktu itu saya sedang berehat menunggu untuk ambil darah pesakit denggi di wad denggi jam 3 pagi dengan berbekalkan modal RM500. Despite lockdown tahun tu and crisis 2022, i remain invested sebab saya terinspirasi sesuatu dari mendiang John Bogle. I still remember waktu tu tak ramai sembang pasal wahed invest. Term indexing pun sangat asing dalam masyarakat kita. Thanks to technology, learning is now rampant and also confusing.

Pentingnya memahami manhaj pelaburan part 2

Pentingnya memahami manhaj pelaburan part 1

Kat Bursa ni ada few OSV players;

Sealink, Dayang, TAS Offshore Bhd , Icon Offshore, Marine & General, Barakah, Perdana

Stay away from Barakah, Alam and Icon. (Pn 17)

That’s all for today. Happy digging! 🤓📚

Mereka survive pandemic, it’s tough.
Now their cash in hand also growing. 😍
their debt standing @ gearing is reducing

Apa yang caught my attention. CEO turut outline strategi mereka untuk turnaround beberapa tahun lalu. Mereka berjaya capai turnaround 2023. and kini tengah in profitability setakat 2H 2024

Jadi saya pun gali OSV player global. I see similar trend. Jadi benda ni bukan hanya berlaku setempat. Eureka!💡

Petronas secara spesifik menyebut OSV akan terima tempias untung malah peluang baik 2024-2026. Saya tertarik bila baca management discussion analysis company ni. Siap bagitahu moving forward if this scenario continue
(high oil price) vessel charter owner akan lebih “tersenyum”

Ada satu syarikat yang saya nampak sangat menarik. TIADA analyst cover this stock ni sehingga hari ini. I will not mention the name here. Sorry

EIA juga memberi panduan dan terus menyokong thesis bahawa harga minyak akan didagangkan sekitar $78-80/barrel. This is strong and consistent with 2023.
This is latest as of report released today.

Saya masih dalam fasa deep dive beberapa stocks utk saya hold 2025-2027. Saya cuma nak kongsi buah fikiran jauh sekali dari memberi buy call.

Kita sedia maklum krisis di middle East nampak semakin tegang.

Bila dunia makin uncertain dek kerana krisis. Harga minyak dijangka naik & potentially aktiviti transport minyak juga sibuk. Berdasarkan Petronas Activity Outlook (PAO) 2024-2026, sektor o&g dilihat positif. Petronas pun melaburkan capex yang tinggi utk masa depan.

📝RISIKO DALAM HIDUP

Ada ternampak seorang ni tweet pasal beli kereta terpakai kemudian sewakan pada student. Sifirnya mudah dan tampak effortlessly genius boleh capai sehingga RM 10,000 dan balik modal membeli kereta tu tadi.

Risk in life is not linear my friend.
Risk is unseen.
Risk is probabilistic.
You have no idea how creative people can use your car for.

Kereta dalam rumah pun orang boleh curi inikan kereta sewa. You might be thinking your total capital loss is RM 8,500.

☣️Apa yang you tak nampak?
You potentially even can land up as criminal/suspect coz your name is on it.

💫Charlie Munger pernah ditanya macam mana nak jadi genius?

He simply say don’t do stupid things.

Landing yourself into miseries is not a sign of genius. It’s merely signs of boredom and attention seeking.

It’s the same in stock market. People find no joy in stay put to small sets of stocks in their portfolio. First because it’s harder to do. 2nd because they take plenty stocks exercise so at least they have something to show to the world if they win big. I have stopped this habit many years ago.

I find it counter productive to treat stocks as fund manager.

You tak ada sesiapa pun yang pressure you apa nak beli, nak jual. So why make it mandate to disturb your compounding?

I still remember Warren Buffet punya rule.
“20 Slot Rule”

Siapa tahu apa rule tu? 🤓

Hari-hari guna UpToDate. Only if the doctors aware about this company. Multibagger + dividend growth. Stock picking sebenarnya bermula dengan aware with your surroundings.

Geng finance tak familiar with this company. This is why Peter Lynch cakap setiap orang ada unfair advantage.

#notaFA

Dah 2024, still ada Melayu Islam:
-Trade saham terangan tak syariah
-Proudly share profit with forex trading siap create community

Ingat. Allah isytihar perang ya dengan orang yang mengambil riba apatah lagi yang terangan haram. Careful what you put on table. May Allah ease us

https://x.com/balajis/status/1837718299301286019?s=46

World are now talking and looking into cloud communities and network state. Boleh join dengar bila-bila free

@investorlab
@investorlab
@investorlab

Ada sesuatu yang kita boleh belajar dari negara China.

Kita semua igt Apple pilih China utk manufacturing kerana kos buruh yang murah. Tim Cook sanggah benda tu.

China bermula sebagai negara yang famous as cheap labor, then they became highly skilled and invested in manufacturing infrastructure, meanwhile we forgot how to build at scale and became reliant on them to do anything. (Made In China remember?)

Then they raised the costs of labor and now we have no other option but to hire their people even their English sucks.

Moral of the story: Do cheap jobs first, get your hands dirty.
Then you can bargain your values to the world

I strongly disagree with anwar’s and zafrul’s decision to join BRICS

1. We knew Russia is the one who shot our MH17. We are embracing the same war criminals that shot down MH17 and oppressed oils to Europeans countries at the same time make plenty ukrainians refugees today. What’s the different with what Israel did to Palestine?

2. Be in BRICS at the same time supporting China’s oppression to Taiwan (leader in semiconductor) even Anwar kata dia tak sapot this oppression.

What you do matters most than what you say. Ibarat cakap sayang bini tapi curang, how is that?

3. I tetap berpendapat Malaysia harus kekal sebagai ZOPFAN country

4. Ada tiga tujuan anwar join BRICS
-Dedolarisation
-Economy alliance (mcm G7)
-Protection from US

5. Dedolarisation mmg dah bertahun kita push dah.
Even without BRICS, our market still move upside & can see our bonds sgt laku last year

6. We are truly not ready to cater plenty data centers of our own. One level of thinking we see and feel the hype of nvidia, google semua tu came to our country. Truly, from energy point of view we are still dependant on coal. even Kulai tu sendiri not ready for this. Dahlah CEO nvidia tu sapot lantang dgn Israel.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1334315

7. Anwar is so desperate utk make Malaysia great again and decision in desperation is arguably right.

Belajar la from mistakes Khazanah. Semua tu sbb half level thinking and it came from our in house economist decision jugak.

To muslim investors. Tolong jaga purity of your income.Ya, betul kita tak boleh lari dari FB, nvidia dsb. But purposefully deploy your capital in their stocks is nothing but to fund the company growth and agree with their mission. Ada beratus ribu syarikat u can make profits

ceo mmg loud support Israel.. sbb duk nampak remiser,sifu saham duk promo nvidia. 🤷‍♂️

https://allisrael.com/nvidia-ceo-says-tech-giant-will-continue-investing-heavily-in-israel-despite-war-in-gaza

I’ll be migrating abroad next week.
I am letting go off my beloved books to help ease my living there.
Grab while it’s last!

Whatsapp: +60199993017