Scorpi18 | Market Insights

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio returns (03 Jan. 2025):

- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: +1%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +677%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'

📊 Actual Portfolio (27 Dec. 2024):

- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: -0%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +674%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (20 Dec. 2024):

- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: +5%
- YEAR: +39%
- SINCE 2014: +671%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'

🌎#commodity #history
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low

#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)

#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopolitics—military conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.

#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)

🇺🇸#stocks #us #history
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.

🌎#commodity #cycles #macro
MUFG: commodity prices are still in the early stages of a bullish super-cycle — report

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bubble
TopDownCharts: the euphoria in the US stock market continues to grow.

FT: almost no one foresees an imminent pop. Virtually every Wall Street analyst predicts US stocks will continue outperforming the rest of the world in 2025. But all this enthusiasm only tends to confirm that the bubble is at a very advanced stage ... All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)

💥🌎#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the world’s leading investment banks and asset management firms:

🏠 Goldman Asset Management

🏠 Janus Henderson

🏠 Citi Wealth

🏠 Cambridge Associates

🏠 BlackRock

🏠 Economist Intelligence Unit

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.

💥🌎#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the world’s leading investment banks and asset management firms:

🏠 Barclays

🏠 J.P. Morgan

🏠 NatWest*

🏠 Goldman Sachs 🇪🇺

🏠 Amundi

🏠 Andbank

🏠 MetLife Investment Management

🏠 Moody's*

🏠 Robeco

🏠 UBS

🏠 MUFG*

🏠 Crédit Agricole

🏠 Goldman Sachs 🇺🇸

🏠 UniCredit

🏠 UBS 🇧🇷

🏠 Mizuho*

🏠 State Street

🏠 S&P Global

🏠 OECD

🏠 ING* 🇨🇳

🏠 Wells Fargo

🏠 ING

🏠 Deutsche Bank* 🌏

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #concentration #warning #history
Goldman: the proportion of the largest companies in the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market = ATH

... this high concentration raises concerns, as history links it to lower long-term returns. If the trend holds, we project S&P 500 annualized returns to average 3% over the next decade. #bubble

❗️🇺🇸#stocks #mining #crypto #datacenters
Bernstein: bitcoin mining stocks trade at a 90% discount to data center service company stocks, based on a comparison of the EV/Operating MW multiple — research*
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Miners are shifting from crypto mining to AI and data center services, attracted by the significantly higher profitability — CNBC

*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #tech #us #history #bubble
Big Tech's market cap relative to U.S. GDP is now 3X higher than it was during the dot-com bubble.

⚠️🇺🇸#debt #bonds #us #warning #markets #em
The rapid growth of the U.S. national debt risks undermining confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially leading to higher yields and increased volatility in global financial markets. For developing countries, these dynamics often result in capital outflows, currency depreciation, and rising borrowing costs, further complicating their economic development.
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US national debt - the biggest threat to the global economy:

- IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden.

- BBG: US #election will not stop the runaway growth in spending and debt. The rising debt burden in the U.S. poses a serious risk to the Treasury market, as the issuance of new Treasuries pushes up long-term bond yields.

- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes U.S. debt is the ‘most predictable crisis’ in history.

- Ray Dalio has warned that the US government’s rising debt levels could hit Treasury bonds.

- Goldman CEO said the US government should not be lulled into thinking that there’s insatiable appetite for its debt.

- ex-World Bank chief David Malpass: the large national debt and excessive spending policies of the US government could lead to a fiscal "train wreck" as soon as 2025.

- Nassim Taleb says US faces a ‘Death Spiral’ of swelling debt. It would take a miracle to reverse the damage. Political system makes it tougher to address.

- "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach sounded the alarm on the US debt.

- Penn Wharton: US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path.

- Musk: America is headed for de facto bankruptcy very fast

🌎#stocks #world #dividends #history
Global equity valuations are at historic highs, while dividend yields are at historic lows.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #election #seasonality
Trump's inauguration on January 20 could mark a local peak for the S&P 500. Historically, markets tend to slow down once an elected president takes office.

🇺🇸#stocks #us #forecast #history
The big banks keep predicting growth in the S&P 500 for 2025, but the problem is that they are often wrong. For example, in 2022, when strategists at the big banks predicted a similar 9.9% rise in equities, the S&P 500 actually fell by 15.3%.
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#bubble Experts compares the current situation to the dotcom bubble, when analysts who predicted a market downturn lost their jobs during a sustained rally. This summer, one of the last "bears" on Wall Street, Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan, was fired.

🤑 Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser — tips and tricks to help you build a long-term investment portfolio with regular monthly payouts, a moderate level of risk and above-market returns.

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On the Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser, you’ll find:

👉 Investment ideas.
👉 Trading signals.
👉 Stock watchlist.
👉 Equity research.
👉 Advices from portfolio manager.

❗️ You'll also find the latest macroeconomic, industry and market research from top investment banks and research firms.

🎁 Anyone who subscribes to the Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser will receive free access to The Economist, Barron's, WSJ, FT, Bloomberg BusinessWeek as a gift.

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (29 Nov. 2024):

- WEEK: +5%
- MONTH: +6%
- YEAR: +40%
- SINCE 2014: +675%

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*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #macro #funds #history
unlike Buffett, fund managers have reduced their cash holdings to historic lows, thereby depriving themselves of liquidity for future investments and a protective buffer in the event of a bull market.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #buffett
the rise in the proportion of cash on Berkshire's balance sheet to record levels is a worrying signal for the stock market ... Buffett doesn’t claim to be an expert at market timing, but he knows when stocks are expensive — read more

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning
A significant negative divergence is currently observed between the Heavy Truck Index and the S&P 500. In the past, divergences of this magnitude have preceded sharp declines in the S&P 500.

💥🌎#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the world’s leading investment banks and asset management firms:

🏠 Barclays

🏠 J.P. Morgan

🏠 NatWest (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)

🏠 Goldman Sachs 🇪🇺

🏠 Amundi

🏠 Andbank

🏠 MetLife Investment Management

🏠 Moody's (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)

🏠 Robeco

🏠 UBS

🏠 MUFG (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)

🏠 Crédit Agricole

🏠 Goldman Sachs 🇺🇸

🏠 UniCredit

🏠 UBS 🇧🇷

🏠 Mizuho (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)

🏠 State Street

🏠 S&P Global

🏠 OECD

Updating ⏳

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (08 Nov. 2024):

- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: -1%
- YEAR: +28%
- SINCE 2014: +618%

⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #history #monetarypolicy #warning #analogy
Nordea: dynamics of US consumer inflation: Today vs. the 1970s.

Many experts now expect Trump's policies, including tax cuts, to be more inflationary, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower interest rates.
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Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)

💥🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us
US corporate buybacks have reached record levels this year.
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Since 2011, buyback programmes have been the main catalyst for S&P 500 growth (chart)

Channel photo updated

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (08 Nov. 2024):

- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: -1%
- YEAR: +28%
- SINCE 2014: +628%

🇺🇸#stocks #us #election
TS Lombard: historically, the S&P 500 has performed better in the 12 months following a US presidential election under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.
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over the past 70 years, $1000 invested in the US stock market during Republican presidencies would yield $27,400 today, while it would yield $61,800 during Democratic presidencies. However, those who stayed invested regardless of political affiliation would see $1,680,000 today (chart)

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (01 Nov. 2024):

- WEEK: -2%
- MONTH: +0%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +633%

🇺🇸#stocks #tech #us #seasonality
seasonality in US tech stocks

✴️#BTC #mining #costprice
the average cost of mining bitcoin among the largest publicly traded mining companies has fallen to $49,500 — CoinShares
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#opinion Bitcoin is often regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, its price-to-mining-cost ratio should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5 (chart)

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #concentration #bubble #warning #macro #history
Goldman: the concentration of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 has reached levels comparable to US stock market bubble of the Great Depression in the United States.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bubble
Top Down: euphoria in the US stock market is at an all-time high

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bubble #macro
S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics — BofA

🇺🇸#realestate #office #us
Goldman: the cost of office real estate in US central business districts (CBDs) has plummeted to levels last seen during the 2008 mortgage crisis. Meanwhile, office real estate prices in suburban areas appear to have stabilised and are likely to have bottomed out.

WSJ: investors are showing renewed interest in office properties

❗️#ONL #EQC

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🇺🇸#stocks #us #seasonality #election
Goldman: US stock market is entering its strongest seasonal period of the year.

Goldman: ‘FOMO’ could help drive stocks higher after US election

@scorpi18

🌎#logistic #container #world
сontainer shipping costs continue to decline.

historically, the Shanghai rates have served as a leading indicator.

⚠️#DAC

⛽️🇺🇸#gas #us
US gas production is falling for the first time since 2000, as a sharp drop in prices makes extraction less profitable. This shift is prompting producers to reduce the number of active drilling rigs or halt production altogether — US Department of Energy.
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US gas prices could rise due to reduced production (chart)

🛢#oil
BBG: hedge funds and asset managers have cut their bullish bets on WTI oil to a 14-year low.

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (26 Oct. 2024):

- WEEK: +3%
- MONTH: +6%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +645%

⚠️🇺🇸#USD #fx #election
HSBC: uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election would be negative for the USD.

#history the last US election with an uncertain outcome was in 2000 between Gore and George W. Bush, and the dollar fell significantly then.

🌎#liquidity #markets #cycles #macro
Crossborder Capital believes that the cycle of liquidity growth will continue to rise in the global system, which will undoubtedly have a positive impact on risk assets.

🌎#liquidity #world #stcoks #macro
global M2 money supply continues to expand = bullish for SP500 and Bitcoin
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correlation between SP500 and global M2 money supply (chart)

correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 money supply (chart)

⛽️🇺🇸#gas #us #forecast
RBC Capital expects US natural gas prices to rise to $5 and beyond, driven by increasing LNG exports, higher electricity demand, and a lack of growth in gas production — report
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strong European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will push up US natural gas prices (chart)

📊 Scorpi18 portfolio performance (18 Oct. 2024):

- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: +9%
- YEAR: +31%
- SINCE 2014: +626%

⛽️🇺🇸#gas #us #forecast
The Economist Intelligence: strong European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will push up US natural gas prices.
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How to bet on rising US gas prices — read more

💥#SJT

🇺🇸#stocks #election #us #seasonality
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.

historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.

🌏#commodity #stocks #world
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance

🇺🇸#election #markets #us #etf
The Bear Traps Report: assets that could benefit from a Trump or Harris victory in the upcoming presidential election.
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purchase of ETFs via the Freedom24.

⚠️#inflation #us #macro
TS Lombard does not rule out the possibility of a second wave of inflation in the US, similar to that of the 1940s and 1970s

#monetarypolicy the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s

⚠️#stocks #us #cash
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.

#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)

🌍#population #africa #forecast
Morgan: Africa's population will surpass that of India and China by 2030.

🇺🇸#commodity #us #stocks
S&P 500 Energy sector is extremely oversold.

🇨🇳#stocks #china #impulse #economy
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in today’s terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didn’t even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode — report

@scorpi18IA

💥🇨🇳#economy #china #support #bonds
A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as $1.4 trillion in special debt = bullish for stocks in China

🇺🇸#election #stocks #us
Barclays: top-10 stocks that could benefit from a Trump or Harris victory in the upcoming presidential election.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).

⚠️🇩🇪#economy #germany #macro
German business model was based on:

- Cheap energy from Russia

- Cheap subcontractors in Eastern Europe

- Steadily growing exports to China

all three are gone by now.

— Macrobond

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #historty #warning
i3Invest: the last three times the S&P 500 crossed below its 52-week moving average after a significant uptrend, the S&P 500 experienced significant declines. This crossover is happening again.