- WEEK: +1%
- MONTH: +3%
- YEAR: +44%
- SINCE 2014: +701%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
@scorpi18
Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.
Note: This is not an investment advice.
Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi
Contact: @invoyager
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Scorpi18 | Market Insights (English)
Are you interested in gaining valuable insights and analysis of the global financial market? Look no further than Scorpi18! This Telegram channel, managed by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov, provides you with a wealth of information to help you navigate the complex world of finance.
Scorpi18 offers in-depth analysis, trends, and predictions to keep you informed about the latest developments in the financial market. From stock market updates to tips on investment strategies, this channel covers it all. However, it's essential to note that the content shared on Scorpi18 is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
If you're an investor looking to engage in meaningful conversations with like-minded individuals, Scorpi18 also hosts a chat group where you can discuss market trends, share insights, and connect with fellow investors. Join the conversation by clicking on this link: [https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi](https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi)
For any inquiries or to learn more about Scorpi18, you can contact Sergio Shalamov directly by reaching out to @invoyager on Telegram. Additionally, if you're interested in advertising opportunities on the channel, you can explore the options available by visiting [https://telega.io/c/scorpi18](https://telega.io/c/scorpi18).
Stay ahead of the game and make informed decisions in the financial market with Scorpi18. Join us today and take your investment journey to the next level!
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
08 Feb, 10:25
- WEEK: +1%
- MONTH: +3%
- YEAR: +44%
- SINCE 2014: +701%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
07 Feb, 07:14
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #tech #bubble #macro #warning
Ρomparison of "Enterprise Value as % of US GDP" for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks today and the ten largest stocks during the dotcom bubble.
"Magnificent Seven" stocks today = 62.5% of GDP
10 largest stocks during the dotcom bubble = 30% of GDP
More and moreβand more and moreβsignals are coming in that the U.S. stock market is overheated.
π Subscribe
Ρomparison of "Enterprise Value as % of US GDP" for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks today and the ten largest stocks during the dotcom bubble.
"Magnificent Seven" stocks today = 62.5% of GDP
10 largest stocks during the dotcom bubble = 30% of GDP
More and moreβand more and moreβsignals are coming in that the U.S. stock market is overheated.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
04 Feb, 16:56
π°π·#skorea #stocks #earningsseason #forecast
HSBC forecasts incredible earnings growth for South Korea's listed companies in 2025.
Corporate profits are expected to grow in all major Asian markets, but will begin to slow in the US. The situation will be worst in Europe, where corporate profits will decline. #us #europe
π Subscribe
HSBC forecasts incredible earnings growth for South Korea's listed companies in 2025.
Corporate profits are expected to grow in all major Asian markets, but will begin to slow in the US. The situation will be worst in Europe, where corporate profits will decline. #us #europe
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
01 Feb, 07:45
- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: +2%
- YEAR: +42%
- SINCE 2014: +692%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
31 Jan, 15:36
πΊπΈ#gaming #us #history
Epyllion: adjusted for inflation, US prices for packaged video games are at their lowest level in history.
Epyllion CEO: the gaming industry is in a slump.
Epyllion: adjusted for inflation, US prices for packaged video games are at their lowest level in history.
Epyllion CEO: the gaming industry is in a slump.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Jan, 19:43
πΊπΈ#stocks #us #strategy #history
TopDownCharts: if you invest in the S&P 500 and miss the 10 best and 10 worst days, you will still outperform the S&P 500 in terms of returns.
TopDownCharts: if you invest in the S&P 500 and miss the 10 best and 10 worst days, you will still outperform the S&P 500 in terms of returns.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
27 Jan, 16:18
βοΈπ#metals #forecast
BofA: by 2030, the world is expected to face a structural deficit in many industrial metals.
Increased dependence on critical minerals requires recycling and new capacity expansion to avoid projected structural deficits in several minerals #capex #recycling
BofA: by 2030, the world is expected to face a structural deficit in many industrial metals.
Increased dependence on critical minerals requires recycling and new capacity expansion to avoid projected structural deficits in several minerals #capex #recycling
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
24 Jan, 11:44
πͺ#silver #short #etf
Bloomberg: short interest in the largest silver ETF, #SLV, is once again approaching historic highs.
The last time it was at these levels, silver prices rallied.
βββββββββ
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace (chart)
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Bloomberg: short interest in the largest silver ETF, #SLV, is once again approaching historic highs.
The last time it was at these levels, silver prices rallied.
βββββββββ
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace (chart)
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
24 Jan, 11:27
πͺ#silver #macro
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace.
This can be driven by various market factors, such as supply constraints, higher demand for physical assets, or expectations of price volatility.
βββββββββ
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace.
This can be driven by various market factors, such as supply constraints, higher demand for physical assets, or expectations of price volatility.
βββββββββ
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
23 Jan, 17:23
πΊπΈ#monetarypolicy #us #inflation #macro
Ρorrelation between Fed interest rates and changes in employment and inflation.
Presently, the Fed's monetary policy is considered highly restrictive (indicated by a red dot), suggesting that a reduction of at least 250 basis points may be necessary before monetary policy becomes neutral.
Ρorrelation between Fed interest rates and changes in employment and inflation.
Presently, the Fed's monetary policy is considered highly restrictive (indicated by a red dot), suggesting that a reduction of at least 250 basis points may be necessary before monetary policy becomes neutral.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
23 Jan, 14:58
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #warning #macro #bubble
Crescat: the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the M2 money supply has reached the level seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
UBS: the stock market is not yet in a bubble β but itβs getting closer, and six out of seven conditions for one have already been met.
Stifel believes the U.S. stock market is at the peak of a bubble and that it will burst in 2025 (chart)
Crescat: the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the M2 money supply has reached the level seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
UBS: the stock market is not yet in a bubble β but itβs getting closer, and six out of seven conditions for one have already been met.
Stifel believes the U.S. stock market is at the peak of a bubble and that it will burst in 2025 (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
21 Jan, 11:14
πΊπΈ#USD #fx #analogy
the dynamics of the dollar after Trump's victory: today vs. 2016.
the dynamics of the dollar after Trump's victory: today vs. 2016.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
20 Jan, 08:55
- WEEK: +1%
- MONTH: +2%
- YEAR: +40%
- SINCE 2014: +686%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
16 Jan, 17:41
πͺ#silver #forecast
silver market deficit expected to persist, potentially driving metal prices higher β BofA report*
#opinion for many years, the world's central banks have not considered silver as a reserve metal, unlike gold, due to its high volatility and significant storage costs. However, if central banks were to allocate even 1% of their reserves to the purchase of silver, global silver consumption could increase fivefold, acting as a powerful driver of silver price growth.
βββββββββ
π *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.
silver market deficit expected to persist, potentially driving metal prices higher β BofA report*
#opinion for many years, the world's central banks have not considered silver as a reserve metal, unlike gold, due to its high volatility and significant storage costs. However, if central banks were to allocate even 1% of their reserves to the purchase of silver, global silver consumption could increase fivefold, acting as a powerful driver of silver price growth.
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
13 Jan, 18:32
πΊπΈ#debt #us #savings
US household debt is at historically low levels.
US household debt is at historically low levels.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
13 Jan, 16:37
πΊπΈ#vix #stocks #us #seasonality
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
13 Jan, 14:50
β οΈπΊπΈ#bonds #us #macro
US Treasuries entering 6-th year of 3-th great bond bear market of past 240 years β BofA
US Treasuries entering 6-th year of 3-th great bond bear market of past 240 years β BofA
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
11 Jan, 08:54
- WEEK: -0%
- MONTH: -0%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +676%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
06 Jan, 16:15
- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: +1%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +677%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
30 Dec, 14:42
- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: -0%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +674%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
21 Dec, 11:04
- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: +5%
- YEAR: +39%
- SINCE 2014: +671%
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
19 Dec, 16:02
π#commodity #history
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low
#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)
#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopoliticsβmilitary conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.
#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low
#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)
#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopoliticsβmilitary conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.
#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
19 Dec, 14:37
πΊπΈ#stocks #us #history
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
17 Dec, 15:20
π#commodity #cycles #macro
MUFG: commodity prices are still in the early stages of a bullish super-cycle β report
MUFG: commodity prices are still in the early stages of a bullish super-cycle β report
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
17 Dec, 14:12
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #bubble
TopDownCharts: the euphoria in the US stock market continues to grow.
FT: almost no one foresees an imminent pop. Virtually every Wall Street analyst predicts US stocks will continue outperforming the rest of the world in 2025. But all this enthusiasm only tends to confirm that the bubble is at a very advanced stage ... All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near.
βββββββββ
Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
TopDownCharts: the euphoria in the US stock market continues to grow.
FT: almost no one foresees an imminent pop. Virtually every Wall Street analyst predicts US stocks will continue outperforming the rest of the world in 2025. But all this enthusiasm only tends to confirm that the bubble is at a very advanced stage ... All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near.
βββββββββ
Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
16 Dec, 17:32
π₯π#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
π Goldman Asset Management
π Janus Henderson
π Citi Wealth
π Cambridge Associates
π BlackRock
π Economist Intelligence Unit
βββββββββ
π *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
13 Dec, 11:13
π₯π#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
π Barclays
π J.P. Morgan
π NatWest*
π Goldman Sachs πͺπΊ
π Amundi
π Andbank
π MetLife Investment Management
π Moody's*
π Robeco
π UBS
π MUFG*
π CrΓ©dit Agricole
π Goldman Sachs πΊπΈ
π UniCredit
π UBS π§π·
π Mizuho*
π State Street
π S&P Global
π OECD
π ING* π¨π³
π Wells Fargo
π ING
π Deutsche Bank* π
βββββββββ
π *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
βββββββββ
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
06 Dec, 14:47
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #concentration #warning #history
Goldman: the proportion of the largest companies in the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market = ATH
... this high concentration raises concerns, as history links it to lower long-term returns. If the trend holds, we project S&P 500 annualized returns to average 3% over the next decade. #bubble
Goldman: the proportion of the largest companies in the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market = ATH
... this high concentration raises concerns, as history links it to lower long-term returns. If the trend holds, we project S&P 500 annualized returns to average 3% over the next decade. #bubble
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
05 Dec, 16:34
βοΈπΊπΈ#stocks #mining #crypto #datacenters
Bernstein: bitcoin mining stocks trade at a 90% discount to data center service company stocks, based on a comparison of the EV/Operating MW multiple β research*
βββββββββ
Miners are shifting from crypto mining to AI and data center services, attracted by the significantly higher profitability β CNBC
*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser
Bernstein: bitcoin mining stocks trade at a 90% discount to data center service company stocks, based on a comparison of the EV/Operating MW multiple β research*
βββββββββ
Miners are shifting from crypto mining to AI and data center services, attracted by the significantly higher profitability β CNBC
*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
04 Dec, 16:21
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #tech #us #history #bubble
Big Tech's market cap relative to U.S. GDP is now 3X higher than it was during the dot-com bubble.
Big Tech's market cap relative to U.S. GDP is now 3X higher than it was during the dot-com bubble.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
04 Dec, 08:11
β οΈπΊπΈ#debt #bonds #us #warning #markets #em
The rapid growth of the U.S. national debt risks undermining confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially leading to higher yields and increased volatility in global financial markets. For developing countries, these dynamics often result in capital outflows, currency depreciation, and rising borrowing costs, further complicating their economic development.
βββββββββ
US national debt - the biggest threat to the global economy:
- IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden.
- BBG: US #election will not stop the runaway growth in spending and debt. The rising debt burden in the U.S. poses a serious risk to the Treasury market, as the issuance of new Treasuries pushes up long-term bond yields.
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes U.S. debt is the βmost predictable crisisβ in history.
- Ray Dalio has warned that the US governmentβs rising debt levels could hit Treasury bonds.
- Goldman CEO said the US government should not be lulled into thinking that thereβs insatiable appetite for its debt.
- ex-World Bank chief David Malpass: the large national debt and excessive spending policies of the US government could lead to a fiscal "train wreck" as soon as 2025.
- Nassim Taleb says US faces a βDeath Spiralβ of swelling debt. It would take a miracle to reverse the damage. Political system makes it tougher to address.
- "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach sounded the alarm on the US debt.
- Penn Wharton: US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path.
- Musk: America is headed for de facto bankruptcy very fast
The rapid growth of the U.S. national debt risks undermining confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially leading to higher yields and increased volatility in global financial markets. For developing countries, these dynamics often result in capital outflows, currency depreciation, and rising borrowing costs, further complicating their economic development.
βββββββββ
US national debt - the biggest threat to the global economy:
- IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden.
- BBG: US #election will not stop the runaway growth in spending and debt. The rising debt burden in the U.S. poses a serious risk to the Treasury market, as the issuance of new Treasuries pushes up long-term bond yields.
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes U.S. debt is the βmost predictable crisisβ in history.
- Ray Dalio has warned that the US governmentβs rising debt levels could hit Treasury bonds.
- Goldman CEO said the US government should not be lulled into thinking that thereβs insatiable appetite for its debt.
- ex-World Bank chief David Malpass: the large national debt and excessive spending policies of the US government could lead to a fiscal "train wreck" as soon as 2025.
- Nassim Taleb says US faces a βDeath Spiralβ of swelling debt. It would take a miracle to reverse the damage. Political system makes it tougher to address.
- "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach sounded the alarm on the US debt.
- Penn Wharton: US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path.
- Musk: America is headed for de facto bankruptcy very fast
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
03 Dec, 16:06
π#stocks #world #dividends #history
Global equity valuations are at historic highs, while dividend yields are at historic lows.
Global equity valuations are at historic highs, while dividend yields are at historic lows.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
03 Dec, 15:50
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #election #seasonality
Trump's inauguration on January 20 could mark a local peak for the S&P 500. Historically, markets tend to slow down once an elected president takes office.
Trump's inauguration on January 20 could mark a local peak for the S&P 500. Historically, markets tend to slow down once an elected president takes office.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
02 Dec, 18:13
πΊπΈ#stocks #us #forecast #history
The big banks keep predicting growth in the S&P 500 for 2025, but the problem is that they are often wrong. For example, in 2022, when strategists at the big banks predicted a similar 9.9% rise in equities, the S&P 500 actually fell by 15.3%.
ββββββββββββββ
#bubble Experts compares the current situation to the dotcom bubble, when analysts who predicted a market downturn lost their jobs during a sustained rally. This summer, one of the last "bears" on Wall Street, Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan, was fired.
The big banks keep predicting growth in the S&P 500 for 2025, but the problem is that they are often wrong. For example, in 2022, when strategists at the big banks predicted a similar 9.9% rise in equities, the S&P 500 actually fell by 15.3%.
ββββββββββββββ
#bubble Experts compares the current situation to the dotcom bubble, when analysts who predicted a market downturn lost their jobs during a sustained rally. This summer, one of the last "bears" on Wall Street, Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan, was fired.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
30 Nov, 15:08
On the Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser, youβll find:
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
30 Nov, 09:38
- WEEK: +5%
- MONTH: +6%
- YEAR: +40%
- SINCE 2014: +675%
βββββββββββββββ
*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Nov, 12:53
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #macro #funds #history
unlike Buffett, fund managers have reduced their cash holdings to historic lows, thereby depriving themselves of liquidity for future investments and a protective buffer in the event of a bull market.
unlike Buffett, fund managers have reduced their cash holdings to historic lows, thereby depriving themselves of liquidity for future investments and a protective buffer in the event of a bull market.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Nov, 12:23
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #warning #buffett
the rise in the proportion of cash on Berkshire's balance sheet to record levels is a worrying signal for the stock market ... Buffett doesnβt claim to be an expert at market timing, but he knows when stocks are expensive β read more
the rise in the proportion of cash on Berkshire's balance sheet to record levels is a worrying signal for the stock market ... Buffett doesnβt claim to be an expert at market timing, but he knows when stocks are expensive β read more
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
25 Nov, 17:05
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #warning
A significant negative divergence is currently observed between the Heavy Truck Index and the S&P 500. In the past, divergences of this magnitude have preceded sharp declines in the S&P 500.
A significant negative divergence is currently observed between the Heavy Truck Index and the S&P 500. In the past, divergences of this magnitude have preceded sharp declines in the S&P 500.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
25 Nov, 06:44
π₯π#economy #forecast #macro
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
π Barclays
π J.P. Morgan
π NatWest (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)
π Goldman Sachs πͺπΊ
π Amundi
π Andbank
π MetLife Investment Management
π Moody's (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)
π Robeco
π UBS
π MUFG (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)
π CrΓ©dit Agricole
π Goldman Sachs πΊπΈ
π UniCredit
π UBS π§π·
π Mizuho (only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser)
π State Street
π S&P Global
π OECD
Updatingβ³
Global macro outlook for 2025 from the worldβs leading investment banks and asset management firms:
Updating
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
18 Nov, 15:57
- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: -1%
- YEAR: +28%
- SINCE 2014: +618%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
15 Nov, 11:31
β οΈπΊπΈ#inflation #us #history #monetarypolicy #warning #analogy
Nordea: dynamics of US consumer inflation: Today vs. the 1970s.
Many experts now expect Trump's policies, including tax cuts, to be more inflationary, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower interest rates.
ββββββββββββ
Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
Nordea: dynamics of US consumer inflation: Today vs. the 1970s.
Many experts now expect Trump's policies, including tax cuts, to be more inflationary, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower interest rates.
ββββββββββββ
Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
14 Nov, 10:36
π₯πΊπΈ#buyback #stocks #us
US corporate buybacks have reached record levels this year.
ββββββββββββ
Since 2011, buyback programmes have been the main catalyst for S&P 500 growth (chart)
US corporate buybacks have reached record levels this year.
ββββββββββββ
Since 2011, buyback programmes have been the main catalyst for S&P 500 growth (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
09 Nov, 18:18
- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: -1%
- YEAR: +28%
- SINCE 2014: +628%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
05 Nov, 17:51
πΊπΈ#stocks #us #election
TS Lombard: historically, the S&P 500 has performed better in the 12 months following a US presidential election under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.
ββββββββββββ
over the past 70 years, $1000 invested in the US stock market during Republican presidencies would yield $27,400 today, while it would yield $61,800 during Democratic presidencies. However, those who stayed invested regardless of political affiliation would see $1,680,000 today (chart)
TS Lombard: historically, the S&P 500 has performed better in the 12 months following a US presidential election under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.
ββββββββββββ
over the past 70 years, $1000 invested in the US stock market during Republican presidencies would yield $27,400 today, while it would yield $61,800 during Democratic presidencies. However, those who stayed invested regardless of political affiliation would see $1,680,000 today (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
02 Nov, 14:04
π Scorpi18 portfolio performance (01 Nov. 2024):
- WEEK: -2%
- MONTH: +0%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +633%
- WEEK: -2%
- MONTH: +0%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +633%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
31 Oct, 10:05
πΊπΈ#stocks #tech #us #seasonality
seasonality in US tech stocks
seasonality in US tech stocks
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
31 Oct, 09:56
β΄οΈ#BTC #mining #costprice
the average cost of mining bitcoin among the largest publicly traded mining companies has fallen to $49,500 β CoinShares
ββββββββββββ
#opinion Bitcoin is often regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, its price-to-mining-cost ratio should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5 (chart)
the average cost of mining bitcoin among the largest publicly traded mining companies has fallen to $49,500 β CoinShares
ββββββββββββ
#opinion Bitcoin is often regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, its price-to-mining-cost ratio should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5 (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
31 Oct, 09:14
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #concentration #bubble #warning #macro #history
Goldman: the concentration of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 has reached levels comparable to US stock market bubble of the Great Depression in the United States.
Goldman: the concentration of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 has reached levels comparable to US stock market bubble of the Great Depression in the United States.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
30 Oct, 18:45
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #bubble
Top Down: euphoria in the US stock market is at an all-time high
Top Down: euphoria in the US stock market is at an all-time high
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Oct, 17:32
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #bubble #macro
S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics β BofA
S&P 500 statistically expensive on 19 of 20 metrics β BofA
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Oct, 17:15
πΊπΈ#realestate #office #us
Goldman: the cost of office real estate in US central business districts (CBDs) has plummeted to levels last seen during the 2008 mortgage crisis. Meanwhile, office real estate prices in suburban areas appear to have stabilised and are likely to have bottomed out.
WSJ: investors are showing renewed interest in office properties
βοΈ#ONL #EQC
Goldman: the cost of office real estate in US central business districts (CBDs) has plummeted to levels last seen during the 2008 mortgage crisis. Meanwhile, office real estate prices in suburban areas appear to have stabilised and are likely to have bottomed out.
WSJ: investors are showing renewed interest in office properties
βοΈ#ONL #EQC
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Oct, 13:38
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Scorpi18 | Market Insights
29 Oct, 09:44
πΊπΈ#stocks #us #seasonality #election
Goldman: US stock market is entering its strongest seasonal period of the year.
Goldman: βFOMOβ could help drive stocks higher after US election
@scorpi18
Goldman: US stock market is entering its strongest seasonal period of the year.
Goldman: βFOMOβ could help drive stocks higher after US election
@scorpi18
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
28 Oct, 16:27
π#logistic #container #world
Ρontainer shipping costs continue to decline.
historically, the Shanghai rates have served as a leading indicator.
β οΈ#DAC
Ρontainer shipping costs continue to decline.
historically, the Shanghai rates have served as a leading indicator.
β οΈ#DAC
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
28 Oct, 09:48
US gas production is falling for the first time since 2000, as a sharp drop in prices makes extraction less profitable. This shift is prompting producers to reduce the number of active drilling rigs or halt production altogether β US Department of Energy.
βββββββββββββ
US gas prices could rise due to reduced production (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
28 Oct, 05:31
π’#oil
BBG: hedge funds and asset managers have cut their bullish bets on WTI oil to a 14-year low.
BBG: hedge funds and asset managers have cut their bullish bets on WTI oil to a 14-year low.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
27 Oct, 08:47
π Scorpi18 portfolio performance (26 Oct. 2024):
- WEEK: +3%
- MONTH: +6%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +645%
- WEEK: +3%
- MONTH: +6%
- YEAR: +33%
- SINCE 2014: +645%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
23 Oct, 16:42
β οΈπΊπΈ#USD #fx #election
HSBC: uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election would be negative for the USD.
#history the last US election with an uncertain outcome was in 2000 between Gore and George W. Bush, and the dollar fell significantly then.
HSBC: uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election would be negative for the USD.
#history the last US election with an uncertain outcome was in 2000 between Gore and George W. Bush, and the dollar fell significantly then.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
22 Oct, 09:18
π#liquidity #markets #cycles #macro
Crossborder Capital believes that the cycle of liquidity growth will continue to rise in the global system, which will undoubtedly have a positive impact on risk assets.
Crossborder Capital believes that the cycle of liquidity growth will continue to rise in the global system, which will undoubtedly have a positive impact on risk assets.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
22 Oct, 08:58
π#liquidity #world #stcoks #macro
global M2 money supply continues to expand = bullish for SP500 and Bitcoin
ββββββββββββ
correlation between SP500 and global M2 money supply (chart)
correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 money supply (chart)
global M2 money supply continues to expand = bullish for SP500 and Bitcoin
ββββββββββββ
correlation between SP500 and global M2 money supply (chart)
correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 money supply (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
21 Oct, 15:38
RBC Capital expects US natural gas prices to rise to $5 and beyond, driven by increasing LNG exports, higher electricity demand, and a lack of growth in gas production β report
βββββββββββββ
strong European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will push up US natural gas prices (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
19 Oct, 12:19
- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: +9%
- YEAR: +31%
- SINCE 2014: +626%
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
18 Oct, 08:03
The Economist Intelligence: strong European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will push up US natural gas prices.
ββββββββββββ
How to bet on rising US gas prices β read more
π₯#SJT
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
17 Oct, 15:09
πΊπΈ#stocks #election #us #seasonality
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.
historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.
historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
16 Oct, 15:37
π#commodity #stocks #world
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
16 Oct, 14:48
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
15 Oct, 15:28
β οΈ#inflation #us #macro
TS Lombard does not rule out the possibility of a second wave of inflation in the US, similar to that of the 1940s and 1970s
#monetarypolicy the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s
TS Lombard does not rule out the possibility of a second wave of inflation in the US, similar to that of the 1940s and 1970s
#monetarypolicy the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
14 Oct, 15:36
β οΈ#stocks #us #cash
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.
#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
βββββββββββββ
Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.
#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
βββββββββββββ
Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
14 Oct, 15:13
π#population #africa #forecast
Morgan: Africa's population will surpass that of India and China by 2030.
Morgan: Africa's population will surpass that of India and China by 2030.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
11 Oct, 16:44
πΊπΈ#commodity #us #stocks
S&P 500 Energy sector is extremely oversold.
S&P 500 Energy sector is extremely oversold.
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
03 Oct, 15:48
π¨π³#stocks #china #impulse #economy
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in todayβs terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didnβt even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode β report
@scorpi18IA
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in todayβs terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didnβt even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode β report
@scorpi18IA
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
03 Oct, 06:36
π₯π¨π³#economy #china #support #bonds
A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as $1.4 trillion in special debt = bullish for stocks in China
A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as $1.4 trillion in special debt = bullish for stocks in China
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
02 Oct, 16:56
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
02 Oct, 16:42
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
βββββββββββββ
historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
βββββββββββββ
historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
09 Sep, 15:52
β οΈπ©πͺ#economy #germany #macro
German business model was based on:
- Cheap energy from Russia
- Cheap subcontractors in Eastern Europe
- Steadily growing exports to China
all three are gone by now.
β Macrobond
German business model was based on:
- Cheap energy from Russia
- Cheap subcontractors in Eastern Europe
- Steadily growing exports to China
all three are gone by now.
β Macrobond
Scorpi18 | Market Insights
09 Sep, 15:32
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #historty #warning
i3Invest: the last three times the S&P 500 crossed below its 52-week moving average after a significant uptrend, the S&P 500 experienced significant declines. This crossover is happening again.
i3Invest: the last three times the S&P 500 crossed below its 52-week moving average after a significant uptrend, the S&P 500 experienced significant declines. This crossover is happening again.
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