Demographics Now and Then @dem0graphics Channel on Telegram

Demographics Now and Then

@dem0graphics

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

Demographics Now and Then (English)

Are you interested in the ever-changing landscape of demographic trends and global developments? Look no further than the 'Demographics Now and Then' Telegram channel! With the username '@dem0graphics', this channel is dedicated to providing you with insights into the shifts in population dynamics and their impact on various aspects of society. Who is it? The 'Demographics Now and Then' channel is perfect for individuals who are curious about how changes in population size, structure, and distribution can influence political, economic, and social systems. Whether you are a student studying sociology, a researcher exploring urban planning, or simply someone interested in understanding the world around you, this channel has something for everyone. What is it? This channel serves as a hub for discussions, articles, and analyses on demographic trends and their implications for different regions around the globe. From the impact of aging populations on healthcare systems to the effects of migration patterns on cultural diversity, 'Demographics Now and Then' covers a wide range of topics that are relevant in today's interconnected world. Join us on this journey of exploration and discovery as we delve into the past, present, and future of demographics. Stay informed, stay engaged, and stay connected with the latest updates on demographic trends and related global developments. Don't miss out on this opportunity to gain valuable insights and broaden your understanding of the world we live in. Join the 'Demographics Now and Then' channel today by searching for '@dem0graphics' on Telegram. Let's explore the fascinating world of demographics together!

Demographics Now and Then

26 Jan, 13:43

Former Yugoslavia as a whole healthier TFR wise than most of Europe. Ukraine not 1.0. Many more women 18-45 have left Ukraine than this accounts for. Probably TFR closer to 1.2. Don’t see this Europe still being a major world player come 2050. Unlike US, no big Gen Z cohort.

The US, UK, & Australia have large Gen Z cohorts so there is still hope for a significant rebound in total births even if TFR only gets back to 1.7-1.8. Even if Europe were to also rise to this level the corresponding rise in births would be far less significant.
1,296
Demographics Now and Then

26 Jan, 01:05

According to the French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), in 2024 663,000 children were born. This is 2.2% fewer than in 2023 and 21.5% fewer than in 2010, the year of the last peak in births, lowest level since 1945.

https://t.co/s9M3wbH57j
1,221
Demographics Now and Then

24 Jan, 03:22

With a fertility rate of ~1.0 your people basically complete evaporate within four generations… South Korea likely an empty shell by 2100.
2,058
Demographics Now and Then

19 Jan, 11:34

🇹🇭In 2024 Thai households carried debt worth 92% of the country's GDP, a bit shy of the 99% ratio America reached in 2007. Don’t see how Thailand turns its demographic crisis around near or medium term. High social media saturation, debt, economic decline.

Thailand has a fertility rate below 1.0 & is in a far less developed economic state than most countries are at the stage their people begin carrying this level of debt. But I expect this to basically become the norm for more & more developing countries.

https://t.co/V20ozIyinD
2,181
Demographics Now and Then

19 Jan, 11:33

Great chart showing fix China is in demographically. Both young & working populations currently declining rapidly as elderly population(in need of health & social+financial support) grows massively. China falls below the 1 billion mark as early as the 2060s.
1,779
Demographics Now and Then

19 Jan, 11:31

Just as Russia reeled when it experienced the “death cross” (when deaths exceeded births in the country in the 1990s)the US is set to experience such a moment in 2033. This will likely be point of no return for America. Many of us warned about it for years,now it’s within sight.

TFR projected to be ~1.60 with foreign-born fertility considerably higher & native-born slightly lower. In fact, native-born TFR would easily go as low as sub 1.5 as the “dual income no kids” lifestyle becomes more popular amongst American youth 25-35.
1,613
Demographics Now and Then

14 Jan, 16:57

Would not be surprised if difference in religiosity between Korean Americans & South Koreans is a major factor in explaining the much higher Korean American than South Korean fertility rate. Less stressful work culture in the United States also a probable contributing factor.
2,338
Demographics Now and Then

12 Jan, 13:11

Smartphone proliferation drove social media proliferation which spread the antinatalist fuel of individualism, consumerism,& materialism. This in turn hurt relationship rates/formation in most countries which in turn hit the fertility rate almost everywhere. There is your story.
3,679
Demographics Now and Then

10 Jan, 12:19

Colombia currently has an estimated fertility rate of around 1.25. This puts them roughly on track with the lower 80% prediction interval(well a bit worse). If this trend continues, births will almost halve from 2021 levels before 2060. Colombia to be an aged country by 2050.
2,892
Demographics Now and Then

06 Jan, 15:18

🇹🇭👶 462,240. That’s the number of Thai births in 2024. To put this into perspective Thailand saw 1,221,228 births in 1971, so nearly three times last years number. Thailand demographically pulling a Taiwan or Korea when it is far less economically developed, this will become common for most developing countries from Sri Lanka to Costa Rica to the Philippines to Colombia.
2,651
Demographics Now and Then

04 Jan, 15:22

Cuba is demographically disintegrating. Very low TFR(close to lowest low at 1.3),with high emigration and rapid aging. Currently following the lower band of the 95% prediction internal. If this continues there will be less than 50K Cuban births by 2050 compared to 125K in 2015.

Simply incredible collapse. Cuba will have less than 5 million people before 2090 at this rate. A half empty island.
3,023
Demographics Now and Then

01 Jan, 14:50

The population of the entire African Continent will never break 3 billion. Even completely excluding the Sahara and other deserts it is much bigger than India, China, Japan, Germany, & the UK combined (total population of just those areas is more than 3 billion today).

Global population will eventually stabilize or decline almost everywhere (only around half dozen smaller countries are projected to have replacement TFR by 2050). Virtually all data is pointing in that direction.
3,622
Demographics Now and Then

31 Dec, 13:59

The Philippines are certainly following the lowest projection intervals on TFR if this decline bears out. If this path continues the Filipino births will fall below 1,000,000 by 2050 & 500,000 by 2080.
2,345
Demographics Now and Then

31 Dec, 13:59

In Australia East Asian TFR is almost as low as in sending countries (and in many cases even lower). Australian Koreans on 0.86 vs 0.73 in South Korea. Australian Taiwanese on 0.71 vs 0.85 in Taiwan. Australian Chinese on 0.85 vs 1.0 in the PRC.
2,208
Demographics Now and Then

24 Dec, 15:43

Child cohort has melted away in East Asia & Europe & will continue disappearing for decades to come. In both regions child populations will fall well over half from their heights as the elderly population explodes. By 2035 East Asia will have just 150M compared to 425M in 1977.
3,689
Demographics Now and Then

23 Dec, 12:24

The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.

The age 60 plus voting bloc will be a clear majority of the electorate in most of these countries. Will be hard to have natalism, a push for new infrastructure, a push for more defense spending, & pension & healthcare remain untouched all at the same time.

Unlike the U.S. and Australia Europe and East Asia do not have a large Generation Z. That is their downfall. They will put more and more of a tax burden on a smaller and smaller population. This is not sustainable. Lots for other countries to learn from this.
15,854
Demographics Now and Then

21 Dec, 13:57

Really like this map showing biggest 5 year generational cohorts in each country (even though it made some mistakes with China & a few other places). It shows what is economically in store for us in coming years. Europe burns out first, then East Asia, then Brazil, US+India.
2,734
Demographics Now and Then

21 Dec, 13:56

Thailand seems to be following the lower 80% prediction interval on births at present.  Births in 2024 on track to be sub 500,000.  If this track continues expect births to fall below 400,000 by 2040. Will have knock on effects on neighbors as many immigrate to Thailand from Burma/Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos etc.
2,651
Demographics Now and Then

16 Dec, 17:28

Jamaica is demographically doomed. Very very hard to see a rebound in time. Likely sub 2M before 2060. It is an emigration nation, has tanking TFR (like almost all of the Caribbean), crime a problem, & there is basically nothing being done to turn things around on the island.
2,799
Demographics Now and Then

12 Dec, 14:22

The profound drops in working age populations in China, Italy, Japan, Russia, Germany, & Spain may very well cause a global fiscal crisis. Unlikely a top heavy population will vote for cuts to their pensions & other benefits. Of developed world U.S. and Australia in best shape.

The fertility rate of the United States has never sunk below 1.6. That is higher than almost any fertility rate in Europe or East Asia besides France & much countries like Bulgaria & Montenegro.
4,903
Demographics Now and Then

08 Dec, 12:49

From 2030 Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czechia will age rapidly with all becoming very aged societies by 2040 & continuing to age quickly until ~2060 before leveling off presenting huge challenges to countries like Germany, that rely on their relatively affordable & skilled labor.
57,702
Demographics Now and Then

05 Dec, 12:19

🇨🇳 According to the United Nations in a BEST case scenario, China’s population falls 400,000,000+ by 2100. Worst case scenario it falls by 1 billion. Absolutely colossal economic changes inbound. Natural resource exporting countries need to diversify as quickly as they can.

Chinese energy, other natural resource, & import needs will fall sharply in the 2040s & 2050s. China’s population has already peaked & is in both natural & absolute decline. By 2030s natural decline will increase to up to 6 million annually. By 2040s up to 10 million annually.
11,866
Demographics Now and Then

01 Dec, 15:32

The Philippines is incredibly significant (with a population above 100 million & huge emigration). Government of the Philippines must create more conducive environment to get their people to stay immediately. With sub 1.5 TFR and high emigration population decline by 2050 certain.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1862887661897179600

With this latest information, it seems that the Philippines may follow just north of the lower 80% prediction interval track,with population peaking between 120-130 million by 2050 then falling well below 100 million by 2100. Filipino sailors may become a scarce labor commodity.
3,113
Demographics Now and Then

27 Nov, 17:54

Thailand is in real trouble. They’re heavily service sector oriented+have a TFR of~1.0. Most significant decrease in their workforce projected to take place during 2030s & 2040s. Main source countries for foreign labor are Myanmar & Cambodia,both likely sub replacement by 2030.
3,395
Demographics Now and Then

26 Nov, 11:25

Chile is an ultra-low fertility outlier (likely to be below 1.0 TFR in 2024). According to INE: 60% of the population identifies as Christian (45% Catholic+15% Protestant) & only ~20% of Chileans live in apartments with many others living in houses or other more spacious than apartment dwellings.

Like Hungary & Poland what is likely at play here is a huge generational gap in values & beliefs. Chileans aged 45 plus likely very religious while those 30 & below likely much less so. Also younger Chileans may be more likely to live in urban areas.

But what is surprising is that there appears to be no very high fertility Catholic or Protestant outliers amongst the young. One would think at least 10-20% of women age 40 and below would have high TFR.
4,263
Demographics Now and Then

25 Nov, 12:47

Venezuela is demographically becoming the Ukraine (or Syria) of Latin America. ~6 million people have left the country over the past decade. That’s more than 20% of the population. Hard to bounce back from that, especially when the fertility rate is falling at the same time.
2,337
Demographics Now and Then

13 Nov, 12:50

Brazil will probably experience natural decline from the 2040s onwards as the country has been consistently below replacement since the late 2000s.

The South of Brazil will doubtlessly continue to attract people from other parts of the country and the wider region as well. The other parts of Brazil will be at a disadvantage (particularly the Northeast).
566
Demographics Now and Then

13 Nov, 12:49

Brazil is going to struggle more than most countries with its low fertility rates. Pension costs already high,GDP Per Capita(PPP)lower than Mexico, Thailand,or Armenia,& is currently suffering from long term economic stagnation(average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022).
559
Demographics Now and Then

12 Nov, 18:22

The phenomena of developing countries having low & very low fertility rates is really something. It’s also a very new one. Some examples include Costa Rica (TFR ~1.2), Sri Lanka (sub 1.5), Thailand (sub 1.0), Colombia (sub 1.45), Cuba (~1.5), Ecuador (~1.6), & Brazil (~1.5).

While developed countries face many of the same challenges of low fertility rates (rising pension aged population with less young people to pay taxes and work being amongst the most notable)they also have the resources to deal with many of them. The developing world does not.
1,091
Demographics Now and Then

09 Nov, 13:36

Germany, Italy, Spain, (& probably France before too long) are all staring into the demographic abyss. All may see their best & brightest youth flee as the tax burden coupled with shrinking opportunities makes staying untenable. The best years for the EU are well behind it.

& no, AI will not save them. They will be far behind East Asia in terms of using AI to mitigate the effects of aging. Why? Because of their regulatory burden (which to be fair is also meant to protect jobs). EU’s Aging societies unlikely to be regulation cutting & innovative.

France has the strongest demographics of the bunch but it is still a TFR of just ~1.62. In any case even with one of the highest TFRs in the EU by 2030 25% of the French population will be drawing a pension and by 2040 30%. This compares to figures of 20% and 22.5% in the U.S.

France also has the highest level of general government spending in the EU. There is very little scope to increase such spending. Reforms are also protested violently.
1,796
Demographics Now and Then

07 Nov, 15:30

For their size Finland (Nokia, Wärtsilä engines), Sweden (Volvo, IKEA, Saab), & Estonia (Skype) have delivered a lot of innovation & products for the world. Finland at lowest low TFR, Sweden at 1.45, & Estonia close to returning at lowest low. Less youth=less innovation.

Many people tend to have the very mistaken view that less people somehow means more prosperity. They are in for a rude awakening in the 2030s & 2040s as most of the advanced world becomes extremely aged. But by then it will be largely too late in many places to right the ship.

When Scandinavia, South Korea, Germany, Japan, Italy, China etc enter the more extreme stage of agemaxxing in the 2030s (for Japan, Germany, Italy) and 2040s (for South Korea, Scandinavia, China) the consumer world will see some profound changes.
2,035
Demographics Now and Then

06 Nov, 17:17

🇹🇭👶Births in Thailand for the first 10 months of 2024 are in and they are down 10.7%! Looks like ~480,000 births for the year. Lowest ever recorded and less than half the 1 million plus births seen from 1963-1983. TFR to almost certainly be 0.98 or below for 2024.
9,489
Demographics Now and Then

06 Nov, 17:16

More targeted natalism that provides dramatically greater incentives for third & higher order children will yield greater benefits than most nations current policy of simply handing out money for all new births (which simply provides resources to parents having children anyway).
1,411
Demographics Now and Then

04 Nov, 01:00

Iceland(~1.6 total fertility rate), Ireland(~1.5), France(higher than the U.S. at~1.64), Slovenia(just above 1.5), Moldova(~1.6), Bulgaria (~1.7), Serbia (~1.6), Montenegro (~1.8), Kosovo (~1.8), last places in Europe without awful sub 1.5 fertility. Lots of caveats to unpack though.

First Bulgaria is buoyed by a Romani population with a likely TFR of ~2.5 that makes is ~10% of births. Iceland & Montenegro both have far less than 1 million people. The relatively decent TFRs in Moldova, Serbia, & Kosovo are undermined by high emigration. Slovenia TFR⬇️fast. For France immigrant TFR provides a substantial boost but falls dramatically by the very next generation.
2,136
Demographics Now and Then

01 Nov, 14:58

Between today & 2050 Poland will age incredibly rapidly. In 2024 ~20% of Poland’s population is aged 65 or better. By 2050 that will jump to well over 30% & keep increasing until at least 2060 when it hits 36-37%. By 2060 Poland’s population is also likely to be under 30M.

Also these estimates don’t account for Poland’s current sub 1.15 TFR. May be even worse. Even a 2060 Poland of 30 million where one third is over age 65 is economically and socially untenable. Especially as this will be at a time where most countries are under similar pressure.
2,510
Demographics Now and Then

01 Nov, 11:56

🇨🇳 China announces new demographic policies.

They include: a revamped maternity subsidy system, the expansion of childbirth and childcare services, expansion of maternal and paternal leave, incentives for flexible working hours and remote work arrangements, housing assistance, and the promotion of pro-marriage and family culture.

🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-announces-measures-boost-births-2024-10-28/
1,330
Demographics Now and Then

29 Oct, 23:45

Brazil in a sharply eroded demographic position by 2050. Its population will be in natural decline, it will have 60 million citizens over the age of 65 collecting a pension, and the country will have only 220 million inhabitants. An aged country with a rapidly shrinking labor force.
2,141
Demographics Now and Then

28 Oct, 16:00

Total European background/White births in England 66.8%, Indian subcontinent background at least 11.9%, Black (African and Caribbean) ~6.5%.
10,435
Demographics Now and Then

28 Oct, 16:00

Simply incredible. TFR in England & Wales (combined population 60 million) now just 1.44. This was a place where just a decade ago TFR was over 1.8.

Childlessness among youngest Millennials and Gen Z British women likely to be above 20%. TFR could fall as low as 1.2.
9,143
Demographics Now and Then

24 Oct, 00:36

🇬🇹👶 Guatemala potentially going significantly below replacement in 2024 is an incredible piece of news. Guatemala is poor, heavily indigenous (important as the Mayan community has traditionally been pro children), & has high emigration. Demographic disaster if emigration not curbed.
10,251
Demographics Now and Then

21 Oct, 15:17

China is aging incredibly rapidly. This is mainly due to disastrous past demographic policy combined with the wholesale adoption of consumerism and materialism. By 2050 they have a median age far higher than even the U.S. (the individualist, consumerist, materialist capital of the world).

Also think things will be a bit worse for the U.S. and UK in terms of aging than the table suggests. But it does illustrate the power of demographics (particularly bad demographics) well.
9,618
Demographics Now and Then

21 Oct, 15:12

This graphic shows the rapid aging of countries around the world and does an excellent job illustrating where we will be in 2050. Very few young populations will remain. India, Pakistan & Indonesia will be well into their demographic dividend. China+East Asia, as well as all of Europe+Canada aged.
8,785
Demographics Now and Then

19 Oct, 12:33

The Caribbean is underreported but is entering a demographic doom loop. Things will be far worse than UN projections. Populations will peak earlier & lower (well before 2050). Biggest countries (Cuba, Jamaica, the DR) all far below replacement TFR with huge emigration levels.

If high emigration and very low TFR trends continue (Jamaica, Cuba are on sub 1.4 & some nations in the region are even lower) we can expect the population of the Caribbean to fall by almost half by 2100 to ~25M people.
2,645
Demographics Now and Then

17 Oct, 11:16

🇸🇪👶If births from January to August are any guide (down ~1.6%)Swedish births will fall below 100,000 this year for the first time in more than two decades. TFR falling across all groups including immigrants. National TFR to stay below 1.45 (for comparison it was 1.85 in 2016).

TFR for ethnic Swedes could hit as low as sub 1.40 this year. Ethnic Swedish births will also make up less than 70% of births in 2024. More than two thirds of Swedish population growth now driven by immigration. Sweden will look profoundly different come 2050.
2,320
Demographics Now and Then

16 Oct, 11:39

The ethnic Dutch in the Netherlands have a worse looking population pyramid (top pyramid) than Thailand. Very very top heavy. Huge population aged 51-75. Much much smaller population aged 0-24. Compare it to the population pyramid of the entire population of the Netherlands below.
1,904
Demographics Now and Then

14 Oct, 12:18

While the UN estimates are roughly correct that the population of South America will top out at ~470 million by 2050, the drop after that point will be much more dramatic. Based on current plummeting TFR trends we’re seeing from Colombia to Chile it’s likely the total pop will be well below 325M by 2100.
2,336
Demographics Now and Then

11 Oct, 14:28

Currently in the United States around 2.6 million baby boomers die annually. This number will rise to 4 million annually by 2037. That generations passing will completely change the political, social, and religious landscape. One cannot underestimate the scale of this change.
12,061
Demographics Now and Then

10 Oct, 14:10

🇨🇳👶 Aggressive pronatalism is now Chinese policy & its enforcement is the purview of government family planning associations, the same bodies that once enforced the one-child policy. Now, however, they are working to promote the official “new fertility culture”.

The resources devoted to this effort have truly been significant. For example, in Miyun, a district of Beijing with ~500,000 residents, local family planning officials have set up a 500 person propaganda team to promote pro natalism & the three child ideal.

Now to be sure this Chinese pro natalist interventionism is far less than that during the one child policy & much of it consists of spreading the governments pronatalist message & informing women of many free pregnancy & child care resources now offered by the state.

However, I have many doubts as to the effectiveness of such an approach. Will it hurt? Unlikely. Will people start having 2-3 kids now that the government constantly messages that this is their social duty & provides lots of help to pregnant women+mothers? Almost certainly not.

https://t.co/gzYCBP7AWz
16,402
Demographics Now and Then

09 Oct, 13:06

The TFR of Hanoi in Vietnam (second largest city ~8.5M & Capital of the country) is still above replacement (~2.11 currently). That of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon & largest city ~9.5M) is much much lower at ~1.5. Hanoi is picture at top and HCMC/Saigon bottom.

Basically all of the other low fertility areas of Vietnam are in former Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) parts of the country like Bạc Liêu, Bình Dương, Bến Tre, Tây Ninh etc. All currently have TFRs below that of the United States (so sub 1.63). Source: Stats Office of VN.
2,189
Demographics Now and Then

08 Oct, 15:45

TFR for US Non Hispanic Whites (NHWs) stabilizing around 1.53. There is huge divergence within NHWs based on political affiliation. NHW conservatives likely ~1.7/8 while NHW liberals likely ~1.2/3.
2,355
Demographics Now and Then

04 Oct, 14:44

🇹🇭👶Thailand has now reported births for the first three quarters of 2024. Births are down ~11%. It’s basically a given Thailand will have sub 1.0 TFR now. The country is so large (66M people) that the demographic crisis will impact all its neighbors. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/mainpage
2,110
Demographics Now and Then

03 Oct, 17:48

In the United States the cumulative decline in births among women under age 35 is equivalent to 550 fewer lifetime births per 1,000 women,whereas the increase among women ages 35 & up is equivalent to 50 additional lifetime births per 1,000 women. That’s the crisis we face today.
3,329
Demographics Now and Then

02 Oct, 10:08

Due to its rapidly aging population and low fertility rate the European Union’s Economy has a good chance of being the same size in 2050 as it is today. Demographic decline has enormous consequences.

https://t.co/XBw6JgQZVY
2,517
Demographics Now and Then

02 Oct, 10:07

🇮🇹👶Italy sees significant June decline in births. # of births during the 1st half of 2024 is down 1.44% compared to the 1st half of 2023. For comparison births in the first 5 months of 2024 were only down 0.7%. TFR on track to = all time low of 1995 (1.19).
2,181
Demographics Now and Then

28 Sep, 13:59

Yep, TFR in Utah now lower than Non Hispanic White TFR in North Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, & Mississippi. End of Mormon magic. No US State with a population 3M+ has NHW TFR above 1.75. California’s NHW TFR is lower than that of Germany. Massachusetts’ is lower than that of Italy…

U.S. NHW TFR is becoming rapidly European (& reaching East Asian levels amongst liberal NHWs) in some places. The U.S., Australia, UK used to be demographic outliers in that regard a decade plus ago. No longer. Only solution is to make motherhood prestigious. This will help make three and four child families sought after.
2,710
Demographics Now and Then

26 Sep, 12:44

🇲🇽👶Mexico (with a fertility rate of~1.5) is now well below Brazilian TFR. For a country with more than 100M people (& the country with the second largest population in Latin America) the implications of this fertility collapse are huge. Births have plummeted far below 1.9M a year. In addition, emigration will continue to hollow out the country.
2,945
Demographics Now and Then

26 Sep, 02:31

This is what happens when your a country with the population of California & you let in 470,000 new permanent residents per year but don’t have nearly enough housing. Surprised it’s not even lower considering it is coupled with an antinatalist individualist/consumerist culture.

Canada is a demographic basket case. They keep making housing scarcer which makes family formation harder.
2,783

2025 All Right Reserved

Disclaimer: The content displayed on this website is solely provided by the respective Telegram channels. We hold no ownership or responsibility for the content shared by these channels.