Ukraine Journal

How is everyone today, on this, the first Saturday of the year?
Dianna 🦋🌷

DON'T PANIC! There is absolutely no reason to do so. And don't feed the sensationalism either.

I am here to ease your fears.

There’s been a lot of disinformation recently that has inflated the scale of Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine. The Kremlin seems to be hoping people don’t pay attention to the numbers, so it’s important to break things down and understand the math behind it all. The next time you hear someone talk about Russia’s daily gains, you can calmly explain just how unimpressed you are by the reality of the situation.

The biggest misconception people need to understand is that Russia actually controls a much smaller area of Ukraine than they did in 2022. Back in March 2022, Russia controlled 27% of the country. As of now, that control has dropped to just above 20%. How is this possible? The initial invasion saw Russia make rapid territorial gains, which is typical for them—large troop formations pushing forward in massive assaults. The problem, however, is that they completely overlooked logistics. Their advances stalled, and in some cases, entire convoys literally ran out of fuel. At the very start of the war, Ukraine managed to capture large amounts of Russian equipment that had either run out of gas or, in some cases, was abandoned due to flat tires with no spare parts to fix them. This even happened with one of Russia’s prized satellite and electronic warfare complexes.

Fast forward to November 2022, when Ukraine launched a surprise counteroffensive. That action forced Russia's control of Ukraine to fall from the peak of 27% back down to only 18%. Despite the passage of time, Russia’s territorial gains have been slow, and they haven’t come close to reclaiming that 27% control. With the rate at which they’ve been advancing, they won’t be reaching that level of control anytime soon.

Now, let's look at the math.

In October and November 2024, Russia gained 610 km² and 725 km², respectively. In December, this slowed to just 465 km². For simplicity, let’s assume an average gain of 600 km² per month, although in reality, the chances of maintaining this rate are slim.

-To get back to 27% control (163,000 km² from the current 119,000 km²):

-Difference in territory: 163,000 km² - 119,000 km² = 44,000 km²

-Months to gain 44,000 km²: 44,000 km² ÷ 600 km²/month = 73.3 months

-This means, to regain what they controlled in March 2022, Russia would need approximately 6.1 years, assuming they can continue at their best pace.

But let’s say Russia wants to go for broke and capture the entire country:

-Months to gain 484,500 km²: 484,500 km² ÷ 600 km²/month = 807.5 months

-This translates to 67.3 years to capture all of Ukraine.

So, yes—if Russia decided to push for full control, it would take them 67.3 years to take the rest of Ukraine. And all this for a "superpower" invading a country that’s 96.5% smaller than Russia itself.

Kelly Hudson
@ukrainejournal

In 2024, the russians occupied 4,168 square kilometers of territory at the cost of 420,000 soldiers, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

By December 2024, the russian advance slowed down.

Geolocation data shows that russian forces gained only 593 square kilometers, which amounts to 18.1 square kilometers per day. At the same time, daily russian casualties remained high, with an average of 1,585 soldiers lost per day, marking the fourth highest historical casualty rate for russia.

@ukrainejournal

Operational information of the General Staff as of 08.00 04.01.2025 regarding the Russian invasion

Glory to Ukraine!

The 146th day of large-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has begun.

In total, 148 clashes were recorded over the past 24 hours.

According to updated information, yesterday the enemy launched four missile and 64 air strikes on the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, using 11 missiles and dropping 95 rocket launchers, and deployed 2,257 kamikaze drones. In addition, it carried out almost five thousand shellings, 230 of them with MLRS.

The aggressor carried out airstrikes, in particular in the areas of the settlements of Gremyachka, Khotiivka, Semenivka, Popivka, Oleksandrivka, Zhuravka, Mykolaivka, Sloviansk, Zelene Pole, Grodivka, Myrnograd, Kotlyne, Pokrovsk, Novoandreivka, Novopil, Kostiantynopol, Vilne Pole, Pyatikhatky, Shcherbaki, Lobkove, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirsk.

Over the past day, the Defense Forces' aviation, missile troops, and artillery have struck four areas of concentration of personnel and equipment, a command and observation post, and an air defense system of the invaders.

In the Kharkiv direction, our troops repelled two enemy attacks in the Vovchansk area.

Seven attacks by the invaders took place in the Kupyansk direction over the past day. Defense forces repelled enemy assault actions near Kucherivka, Synkivka, and Zagryzove.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 11 times. He tried to advance near Nadiya, Makiivka, Hryhorivka, Tverdokhlibovye, Yampolivka and in the direction of Cherneshchyna and Zelena Dolyna.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy twice attacked the positions of our defenders in the area of ​​the settlement of Bilogorivka.

In the Kramatorsk direction, 10 clashes were recorded in the areas of Chasovy Yar, Bila Hora, in the direction of Predtechyny and Stupochy.

In the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out seven attacks near the settlements of Diliivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.

In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 40 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor in the areas of the settlements of Vodyane Druge, Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Novoolenivka, Novovasylivka, Ukrainka, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirovo, Solone, Kotlyne, and Pokrovsk.

In the Kurakhiv direction, the Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks on the positions of our troops near Petropavlivka, Sribny, Kurakhiv, and Shevchenko.

In the Vremiv direction, the enemy carried out 11 offensive actions against the positions of Ukrainian units in areas near Yantarne and in the direction of Konstantinopol and Novoselka.

In the Orikhiv direction, our troops repelled one enemy attack near the settlement of Novoandreyevka. Enemy aviation was actively operating in the direction.

In the Dnieper direction, the invaders twice stormed the positions of our units without success.

In the operational zone in Kursk, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine have repelled 41 attacks by the invaders over the past 24 hours. In addition, the enemy launched three missile and 10 air strikes, using three missiles and 15 guided bombs, as well as carried out 357 artillery attacks on the positions of our troops and settlements.

The enemy did not conduct any assault operations in the Hulyaipil direction over the past day.

No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were detected in the Volyn and Polissya directions.

On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the enemy from the territory of the Russian Federation is actively using artillery and aviation in the areas of Ukrainian settlements.

Our soldiers inflict significant losses on the occupation forces in manpower and equipment, and actively undermine the enemy's offensive potential in the rear.

Together we will win! Glory to Ukraine!

@ukrainejournal

Germans support sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, but not theirs

54% of surveyed Germans support the deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine in principle if a ceasefire occurs.

This is according to Deutsche Welle, which cites a YouGov poll commissioned by the DPA news agency, conducted online between 20 and 23 December, with 2,194 participants.

As per the survey, 19% of respondents are fundamentally opposed to the idea, while 25% remain undecided.

When asked if they support Germnay’s direct participation in the peacekeeping, the sentiment differs among the respondents. Just 23% want the country to put boots on the ground, while 33% reject the idea altogether.

The deployment of peacekeepers is one of the key elements of a potential peace push floated by President-elect Donald Trump. The goal would be to ensure that russia doesn’t continue its territorial conquest in the war-torn country.

@ukrainejournal

The estimated total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 04.01.25

personnel ‒ about 794760 (+1510) persons,
tanks ‒ 9679 (+2),
troop-carrying AFVs ‒ 20093 (+23),
artillery systems – 21578 (+23),
MLRS – 1257 (+0),
anti-aircraft systems ‒ 1032 (+0),
aircraft – 369 (+0),
helicopters – 331 (+1),
UAV operational-tactical level – 21356 (+107),
cruise missiles ‒ 3006 (+3),
warships / boats ‒ 28 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
vehicles and fuel tanks – 32843 (+73),
special equipment ‒ 3675 (+0)

Data is being updated.
Fight the invader! Together we will win! 🇺🇦
- ⚔️ UA Land Forces

@ukrainejournal

As of 06:00 04.01.2025
 
▪️in the Black Sea, 1 enemy ship, which is a carrier of "Caliber" cruise missiles, but there are no missiles;
▪️ in the Sea of ​​Azov, there are no enemy ships;
▪️ in the Mediterranean Sea, 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are carriers of "Caliber" cruise missiles, with a total salvo of up to 22 missiles.
 
During the day, the following vessels passed through the Kerch Strait in the interests of the russian federation:
- to the Black Sea - 7 vessels, of which 7 continued their movement towards the Bosphorus Strait;
- to the Sea of ​​Azov - 1 vessel, which did not leave the Bosphorus Strait.

- UA Navy

@ukrainejournal

⚡️ 34 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 47 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
On the night to January 4, 2025 (from 19:00 on January 3), the enemy attacked with 81 strike UAV of the “Shahed” type and simulator drones of various types from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - russia.

The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.

💥 As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 34 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Mykolaiv regions.

Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 47 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences). However, the downed UAVs caused damage in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions - private houses were damaged. Assistance is being provided to the injured.

✊ Let's hold the sky!
🇺🇦 Together – to victory!

- UA Air Force

@ukrainejournal

Coffee time! ☕️

And be glad those of you in the Northern Hemisphere that soon dark mornings will be a thing of the past 😌
@ukrainejournal

⚡️US looking into restricting or banning drones made by 'foreign adversaries,' including China, russia.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced on Jan. 2 that it would explore how to secure the technology and supply chain of drones from foreign adversaries, including China and russia.

The Bureau of Industry and Security said that the involvement of foreign adversaries in "supply chains, including acute threats from China and russia – may offer our adversaries the ability to remotely access and manipulate these devices, exposing sensitive U.S. data."

@ukrainejournal

Ukrainian partisans report on reinforced military posts in russian-occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, and panic among russians due to the rise in protests and the leak of information damaging their military objectives.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44776

@ukrainejournal

After a trip to Putin, Slovakia didn't know where Fico was for two weeks.

Fico only recorded videos on social media, from which it was unclear in which country the Slovak Prime Minister was. Meanwhile, his office refused to inform the media about the Prime Minister's whereabouts.

Only in his latest video, in which he criticized Zelensky, did Fico reveal his location. He is not in Slovakia, but in Vietnam. @ukrainejournal

Some grim reality of Kyiv in 2024:

Kyiv heard 500 air raid alerts. Russia carried out almost 200 air strikes on the city - Kyiv Military Administration.

During this time, the russian army used:
◾️ over 1300 drones;
◾️ over 200 cruise missiles (Kh-101/Kh-59/Kh-69/Iskander-K/Kalibr)
◾️ 24 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23);
◾️ 22 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles;
◾️ 7 Zircon hypersonic missiles.

Kyiv survived 6 massive and 14 combined air strikes. Almost 550 residential buildings were damaged, and nearly 120 people were left homeless. For almost 100 days last year, Kyiv residents lived with power outages.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, russia has killed 1,300 civilians in Kyiv who died as a result of air attacks - deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration. 11 of them are children. More than 1,750 residents of Kyiv were injured, 106 of them children.

@ukrainejournal

🇺🇦🇲🇩Ukraine will supply electricity to Moldova tonight.

Moldovan state-owned company Energocom reported that it had purchased the electricity needed to cover the deficit on January 2.

"We will additionally purchase electricity from the Ukrainian Energoatom - at night, when our colleagues have a surplus of energy and can export it," Energocom noted.

@ukrainejournal

🇲🇩⚡MOLDOVA – Unrecognized pro-Russian "Republic of Transnistria": The central heating was turned off after the russian gas supplies were stopped, — rosZMI

The streets are completely empty,
there are no people.
@ukrainejournal

🔥🚁 According to preliminary information, the enemy shot down its own Mi-28NM attack helicopter. The entire crew died! We'll post more information as it comes in.

Friendly, friendly fire 😄
@ukrainejournal

russian Prisoners are deprived of payments.

The government has " changed " the procedure for lump sum payments for citizens who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense to be sent to war in Ukraine.

Now such payments are not due to persons who signed a contract while in prison or a colony.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the corresponding resolution on December 28. The document was published on the legal acts portal on December 30 and will enter into force on January 1, 2025.

The opportunity to be released from criminal prosecution with the help of a military contract became available to convicted persons in 2023. In March 2024, the State Duma adopted a law that allows suspects, accused and convicted persons for minor and moderate crimes to be released from liability.

Moscow Times.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/31/zaklyuchennih-lishili-viplat-pri-podpisanii-kontrakta-s-minoboroni-a151733

🇺🇦@ukrainejournal

Clip of a ukraine missile striking the pylon of the destroyed Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnieper, in the Kherson Oblast a Railway line ran over the bridge. The bridge was destroyed after the retreat of Russian troops in November 2022. @ukrainejournal

UPD: The number of people killed in the Russian attack on Kyiv last night has risen to two. Another 7 people were wounded.

Among the dead is also a 23-year-old volunteer in Kherson. The region has suffered many destructions due to Russian strikes. @ukrainejournal

Nine countries, including one African, join the BRICS as partners from January 1

These countries span almost all continents, with some representing the Global South:

🇧🇾 Belarus
🇧🇴 Bolivia
🇮🇩 Indonesia
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
🇨🇺 Cuba
🇲🇾 Malaysia
🇹🇭 Thailand
🇺🇬 Uganda
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan. 👻 @ukrainejournal

Ukrainian Humvee has been fully encased in a protective cage, not to prevent escape but to enhance defense against FPV drones, including fiber-optic drones that now attack from both above and ground level. @ukrainejournal

An update..👍Two tanks with gasoline and diesel fuel caught fire as a result of a drone attack on an oil depot in the Smolensk region

ASTRA has found out the details of yesterday's UAV attack on the Rosneft Smolensknefteprodukt oil depot in Yartsevo, Smolensk Region. According to sources in the region's emergency services, as a result of the attack, 11 drones damaged two 700-cubic-meter oil product tanks. One of them contained gasoline, the other diesel fuel. The tanks, according to sources, were not completely filled. They caught fire.

The attack on the oil depot was previously confirmed by the governor of the Smolensk region.

There were no casualties. Residents of nearby houses were evacuated.
@ukrainejournal

Back in March 2024 Moldova was making alternative arrangements for energy supplies.

Support for Moldova’s energy security with €30.8 million loan for electricity network development.

EBRD lends €30.8 million to Moldova to link to European electricity grid via Romania.

Project costing €77 million to be co-financed by European Investment Bank, EU

Moldova implements EU Third Energy Package.

The EBRD is lending €30.8 million to Moldova and its state-owned electricity company Moldelectrica to link the country’s network to that of its European Union neighbour, Romania, by constructing a high-voltage transmission line between the Moldovan city of Balti and the Romanian border.

Moldelectrica, which is implementing the European Union’s Third Energy Package, will also use the loan to rehabilitate its internal electricity transmission network and build a 400 kV (kilovolt) substation at Balti.

The Balti-Suceava project, costing a total of €77 million, is co-funded by the European Investment Bank (EIB), which is also lending €30.8 million. The European Union’s Neighbourhood Investment Platform (NIP) will provide a €15.4 million grant.

The project’s aim is to increase Moldova’s energy security by accelerating the country’s integration with the European grid, ENTSO-E, as well as to strengthen the country’s integration with its European neighbours.

The loan agreement was signed in Chisinau by the EBRD’s Head of Moldova, Catarina Bjorlin Hansen, and Moldova’s Energy Minister, Victor Parlicov.

More than 80 per cent of electricity consumed domestically in Moldova came historically from the unrecognised breakaway region of Transnistria, along with imports from Ukraine via a grid connecting several former Soviet republics.

Moldova has been working since 2015 to diversify sources through closer links with Romania and has one interconnection line to Romania (the Vulcanesti-Issaccea line).

This avoids converting Russian gas into electricity, by having direct supplies of electricity from the other direction. @ukrainejournal

Read this orc bullShyt 👻👻👎👎🖕🖕🖕🖕🔍Ukraine violates constitutional right to conscientious objection to draft – OHCHR

Ukraine's actions during the ongoing conflict have drawn criticism from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) for violating key constitutional rights.

Among the key concerns raised:

📍Mobilization:
The right to conscientious objection to military service has continued to be subjected to undu resrictions in law and practice

📍Freedom of religion or belief:
In territory controled by the government of ukraine new legal provisions regarding religious organizations entered into force; these prohibit the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian religious organizations found to be affiliated with counterparts in the russian federation The law introducing these provisions established disproportionate restrictions on the freedom to manifest one’s religion or belief.🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕🖕

@ukrainejournal

📹Combat operations of mobile fire groups in the eastern direction at night 31.12.2024 / 01.01.2025. - UA Air Force

@ukrainejournal

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/31/7491485/

Don't those guys look great?! 😄

@ukrainejournal

The British government has announced GBP 4.5 million to aid Ukraine's efforts in seeking justice for war crimes committed during russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

@ukrainejournal