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BANK NIFTY: SUPPORT OF INDUSIND
IndusInd Bank soothes nerves with decent NIMs
Market’s big fear was all banks will show poor NIMs
One leg of correction might be over in Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed at 100 DEMA yesterday
Bank Nifty also trading at 20 Week EMA
Logical target for Bank Nifty in next correction: 44,500
44,500 is the 200 day Simple moving average

MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
Focus on cos delivering good results
Market is rewarding good nos, yesterday Oracle surged 30%
Yesterday’s low is now sacrosanct for Nifty
Markets normally always test panic low to check strength
Over next few days, Nifty is likely to test 21,285 again

TRADE SETUP
FII Long Exposure in Index Futures
% Net Contracts
Series Start 70% +81650
Jan 16 66% +79600
Jan 17 54% +20650
Jan 18 49% -4650

GM

WHY WAS CAUTION GIVEN YESTERDAY?
Yesterday’s caution and sell call would work today
Now market is “sell on rally” till 22,124 is crossed
Many indicators of markets were in exuberance zone
600 stocks at new highs normally leads to correction
Forward P/E for midcaps is 27.2X , a 39% premium to average - MOSL
Put Call ratio, India VIX and FII long build-up indicated peak
I am not calling for a bear market but just a correction
It will be healthy for Nifty to correct 5% and Midcaps to fall 20%
Investors should use every 200 point dip on Nifty to add to ETFs

HDFC BANK AND BANK NIFTY: WHAT NEXT?
Start with HDFC Bank ADR
Show HDFC Bank 1 month and 3 month chart

Bernstein on HDFC BK
First YoY EPS decline in a decade, sums up a disappointing quarter
Reported a very weak set of numbers
NIMs stayed flat QoQ
Borrowings grew faster than deposits
Bank had use lower tax expense route to maintain 2% RoA
A 2% YoY decline in EPS for a bank famed for its consistent mid-teens EPS growth is a good summary of terrible quarter

Possible to see HDFC Bank revisit 200 DMA of 1533
Long-term investors will be buyers of HDFC Bank around 1550
Valuations would be very appealing at 1550
Unlikely that HDFC Bank will see a big rally for some time
Any investment in HDFC Bank even at 1550 is a faith decision
Bank Nifty at the risk of making a double top at 48,200

TRADE SETUP
Wipro ADR

Nifty IT 1 month chart

DII Net Sell 369 Cr in Cash (10,126.53 - 10,495.82 Cr)
FII Net Buy 657 Cr in Cash (12,212.14 - 11,555.57 Cr)

FII Net Sell 135 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1,166 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Longs -1136 66%
Shorts +960 34%

F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: NATIONALUM, ABFRL, ASHOK LEY
STILL IN BAN: BIOCON, CHAMBALFERT, METROPOLIS, , DELTACORP, POLYCAB, , INDIACEM, , PEL, BANDHANBNK, HINDCOPPER , INDUSTOWER, PVRINOX, ZEEL
OUT OF BAN: BHEL, ESCORTS, SAIL

INDIA VIX closed at 13.57 down 1.81%

Nifty PCR at 1.21 vs 1.52

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Those carrying shorts should exit half at open
For remaining half, keep first 15 min high as stop loss
Highest Put writing at 22,000, premium of Rs 77
Put writer would be in trouble below 21,913
Next support level: 10 DEMA of 21,781
Possible for Nifty to fall to at least 21,781
Buy only on stability above 21,800, stop: 21,750
Any Buy has to be strictly Intra-day with strict SL
January is a month to observe from sidelines
January is not a month for positional trades

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty can fall 1000 points at open today
Show 47,500 Put of today’s expiry
Today will be a lesson on why you should never write naked options
Today’s open will be below 20 DEMA of 47,554 and options base
Next support for Bank Nifty at 50 DEMA of 46,678
No thoughts of buying till any kind of stability emerges
Bank Nifty will be at mercy of fund managers today
If fund managers buy HDFC Bank at lows, recovery may happen

GM

MARKET: STAY NEAR EXIT DOOR
563 BSE stocks at new high, 16 stocks at new low
Markets top out when new high number is around 600
No harm in missing out the last 5% of the rally
From these levels, risk of capital loss is very high

MARKET: CUES FOR TODAY
The biggest cue today would be HDFC Bank results
HDFC Bank’s quarterly update was strong
Fin Nifty expiry today, Bank Nifty had strong close
Bank Nifty still 500 points away from all-time high

TRADE SETUP
FII in Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +10697 66%
Shorts -4379 34%

INDIA VIX closed at 13.79 up 5.22% , Nifty PCR at 1.52 vs 1.43

F&O BAN
16 stocks in F&O ban

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support zone: 21,950-22,000
Bigger support zone: 21,750-21,900
First resistance: 22,100-22,200
Bigger resistance: 22,250-22,325

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 48,250-48,350
Bigger resistance: 48,400-48,600
First support: 47,800-48,000
Bigger support: 47,500-47,700