The Nifty50 shed the previous week's gains and closed lower in the week ending November 8 amid consolidation due to subdued corporate earnings, selling by FIIs, and stretched valuations. Further, China's $839 billion refinancing of local government debt was below expectations and could not enthuse the global markets. However, volatility reduced after Republican Party nominee Donald Trump won the US elections and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
In the coming truncated week, the market is expected to consolidate further with stock-specific action due to the last lot of the September quarter results, US inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, India's CPI inflation, and FII activity.
The Sensex slipped 0.3 percent during the week to close at 79,486, and the Nifty50 dropped 0.64 percent to close at 24,148, while the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices fell 0.25 and 1.86 percent, respectively. Strong buying of tech stocks limited losses for the week even as other key sectoral indices were down.
"Indian equities are expected to move sideways on the back of global factors and subdued quarterly results," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Here are 10 key factors to watch next week
Corporate earnings
In the last week of the earnings season, more than 2,500 companies will declare their September quarter results, including Nifty 50 firms like ONGC, Britannia Industries, Hindalco, Shree Cement, Eicher Motors, Grasim Industries, Hero MotoCorp, etc.
Apart from that, Hyundai Motor, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Brainbees Solutions (Firstcry), Honasa Consumer (Mamaearth), Vodafone Idea, Zydus Lifesciences, Bank of India, Bharat Forge, Bajaj Consumer Care, Balrampur Chini Mills, Hindustan Copper, Jubilant FoodWorks, NMDC, UPL, Ashoka Buildcon, Bosch, CESC, EMS, Finolex Cables, General Insurance Corporation, Marksans Pharma, Samvardhana Motherson, Natco Pharma, P N Gadgil Jewellers, Sula Vineyards, Alkem Laboratories, Apollo Tyres, Astrazeneca Pharma, Dilip Buildcon, Exicom Tele-Systems, Garden Reach Shipbuilders, Happiest Minds Technologies, Kalyan Jewellers, NBCC, PI Industries, Senco Gold, Thermax, Torrent Power, Wockhardt, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Bharat Dynamics, Delhivery, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Hindustan Aeronautics, Ipca Laboratories, Medi Assist Healthcare, and Muthoot Finance, will also be announcing their quarterly numbers.
After a subdued first half, experts expect the second half of FY25 to see improved corporate earnings, with hope of revival in the consumption sector.
CPI inflation
Apart from earnings, there will be focus on the CPI and WPI inflation for October, which will be announced on November 12 and 14, respectively. Most economists expect the September inflation figures of 5.49 and 1.84 percent to increase slightly, but they also believe that with the kharif harvest, these may reverse November onwards.
The September industrial output data to be released on November 12 is also expected to improve, compared to the 0.14 percent contraction in August. Passenger vehicles sales figures for October will be released on November 13.
On November 15, the spotlight will be on the October fiscal deficit data, forex reserves for the week ending November 8, and growth in bank loans and deposits for the fortnight ending November 1.
US inflation
Investors globally will keep an eye on US inflation and retail sales in October, which will influence the Fed's interest rate decision at its next meeting in December. According to experts, consumer inflation may increase a bit from the 2.4 percent reported in September, while core inflation is likely to remain steady at 3.3 percent.
Furthermore, global markets will monitor speeches by several Fed officials during the week, including Powell's on November 15. While he said, after the November policy meeting, that he did not rule out a rate cut in December, economic indicators will play a key role in shaping the Fedโs next moves.
