Analysis on Israel, Iran, and Operation True Promise 3:
Recently information has been circulating about an alleged top secret intelligence leak in which Israel seeks to target Iranian nuclear sites via air-power and activate Mossad sleeper cells for sabotage potentially this month. However this is no solid established source for this leak, it is relatively safe to assume the information is fake.
However it is important to understand the situation in the coming months as they are unfolding now. Where is Iran’s promised third operation against the Zionist entity? What is the Israeli plan? How do Syria and other countries factor in?
Turning our focus to Syria, the recent establishment of the Suwaydiya Military Council and alleged Israeli protection for this entity seems like an attempt to keep Syria divided. However this isn’t because Israel fears al-Golani or HTS or the current takfiri leadership in Damascus. Al-Jolani and his gangs of thugs are loyal to their masters in Tel Aviv and Ankara, this recent move by Israel and the invasion of southern Syria and demands for demilitarization is a show of force by Israel to show the new regime in Damascus that they are to be completely subservient to Israel, they are not partners, rather it is the Zionist master and his takfiri slave. Syria is however unpredictable still.
While spontaneous pockets of resistance from several groups, it remains to be seen if a popular resistance will rise in Syria. Squads and groups of former SAA soldiers carry out raids and attacks on HTS terrorists, some of the former SAA fighters alongside Shia Muslims, and reportedly elements of SSNP militias, in Syria have formed the Islamic Resistance in Syria, which has concentrated on attacking the Zionist invasion in southern Syria.
With the SDF still engaged in combat with the SNA and Turkish forces in the north, and the US potentially seeking to pull its forces out of Syria altogether or at least reduce their presence, it remains to be seen how the situation across the country will evolve.
However as long as infighting in Syria persists, this will likely mean an easier time for Hezbollah and Lebanon. Many HTS elements have been attacking the Lebanese border and villages along the border which have left to skirmishes between militants and armed villagers, but if HTS is focused on fighting other factions, they won’t have the time or resources to harass Lebanon further.
Going back to Iran and Operation True Promise III (TP3), Iran can and will carry out this operation. The last two operations were just a taste of what Iran is capable of doing. Iran so far has been testing the waters and probing Israeli defenses. Now it has established it can very much overcome and overwhelm the Iron Dome system through it’s drone and missile capabilities, and can significantly damage Israeli military infrastructure even with limited ordnance in its missiles previously, Iran is calculating how best to deliver severe damage accurately and effectively across Israel. It may be they are waiting for an Israeli provocation so as to have another solid casus belli for its next operation. As mentioned before, in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran targeting nuclear sites or any other facilities, Iran can and should simultaneously target Israel while any Israeli attack is ongoing. If Israeli aircraft are focused on attacking Iran, they are not able to defend Israel, thus leaving the Iron Dome by itself to attempt to counter Iran’s missile and drone forces. Given the size of each country and the defenses they have implemented, Israel would suffer a much more devastating blow than they could ever deal to Iran simply given Iran’s capabilities, the vastness of the country, and the ingenuity in constructing it’s missile silos and underground hangers and storage facilities. Iran’s new air defense systems have also proven to be rather effective and countering Israeli aerial capabilities.
