Paradigm's Week In Review (Jan 20 - Jan 24)
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Paradigm Edge
23 Jan, 22:22
Paradigm Session Recap – January 23
Spot is flat, with BTC at $103,700 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. President Trump signed the "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology" executive order, establishing a Working Group chaired by Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, David Sacks. The group will propose a Federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins, and evaluate the potential creation of a national digital asset stockpile, potentially sourced from seized cryptocurrencies.
Frontend vols are up, while longer tenors are down slightly. Call skew remains firm, and BTC basis sits around 11% annualized. Flows were again concentrated in January, featuring outrights and call spreads lifted.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $103,700 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. President Trump signed the "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology" executive order, establishing a Working Group chaired by Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, David Sacks. The group will propose a Federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins, and evaluate the potential creation of a national digital asset stockpile, potentially sourced from seized cryptocurrencies.
Frontend vols are up, while longer tenors are down slightly. Call skew remains firm, and BTC basis sits around 11% annualized. Flows were again concentrated in January, featuring outrights and call spreads lifted.
Paradigm Edge
22 Jan, 23:26
Paradigm Session Recap – January 22
Spot is down, with BTC at $103,700 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. Enthusiasm surrounding the Stargate AI Project propelled the Nasdaq Composite higher and the S&P 500 to a new intraday all-time high. Speculation is growing that CME may soon launch SOL and XRP futures.
The BTC term structure has reverted to contango as fronts retrace. Flows were concentrated in January expiries, featuring calls bought and put spreads sold. SOL upside continues to be lifted.
Spot is down, with BTC at $103,700 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. Enthusiasm surrounding the Stargate AI Project propelled the Nasdaq Composite higher and the S&P 500 to a new intraday all-time high. Speculation is growing that CME may soon launch SOL and XRP futures.
The BTC term structure has reverted to contango as fronts retrace. Flows were concentrated in January expiries, featuring calls bought and put spreads sold. SOL upside continues to be lifted.
Paradigm Edge
21 Jan, 22:57
Paradigm Session Recap – January 21
Spot is up, with BTC at $106,000 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Recently appointed SEC acting chair Mark Uyeda announced a crypto task force, to be led by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. MicroStrategy added 11k BTC to its reserves, raising its total holdings to 461,000 bitcoin.
Fronts are now around 65v, while backs sit at 60v. Frontend call skew is easing. Today's flows featured 1,500x 70k and 75k 28 Feb puts sold at 75v and 68v, hedged.
Spot is up, with BTC at $106,000 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Recently appointed SEC acting chair Mark Uyeda announced a crypto task force, to be led by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. MicroStrategy added 11k BTC to its reserves, raising its total holdings to 461,000 bitcoin.
Fronts are now around 65v, while backs sit at 60v. Frontend call skew is easing. Today's flows featured 1,500x 70k and 75k 28 Feb puts sold at 75v and 68v, hedged.
Paradigm Edge
20 Jan, 22:33
Paradigm Session Recap - January 20, 2025
BTC renewed its all-time high earlier today but has since retraced, with BTC at $102,800 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Index futures are slightly up, as US stock and bond markets were closed in observance of MLK Day. The industry now awaits signed executive orders on crypto. Trump appointed CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham—a proponent of "regulatory sandboxes" for digital assets—to lead the agency. Later this week, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike.
Fronts are down since yesterday, but the BTC term structure remains in backwardation, with fronts at 80v/70v and backs around 62v. Call skew holds firm. Flows featured flies, call spreads, and outrights lifted in January, alongside noteworthy SOL trades.
BTC renewed its all-time high earlier today but has since retraced, with BTC at $102,800 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Index futures are slightly up, as US stock and bond markets were closed in observance of MLK Day. The industry now awaits signed executive orders on crypto. Trump appointed CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham—a proponent of "regulatory sandboxes" for digital assets—to lead the agency. Later this week, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike.
Fronts are down since yesterday, but the BTC term structure remains in backwardation, with fronts at 80v/70v and backs around 62v. Call skew holds firm. Flows featured flies, call spreads, and outrights lifted in January, alongside noteworthy SOL trades.
Paradigm Edge
16 Jan, 21:39
Paradigm Session Recap - January 16, 2025
Spot is flat, with BTC at $99,900 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. XRP and SOL are outperforming amid reports that Trump is receptive to the idea of an America-first strategic reserve. BTC ETFs returned to inflows yesterday after a streak of outflows.
Call skew continues to rise, while BTC Mar/Jun basis hovers around 13%. Flows featured Jan/Feb 110k and 120k calls lifted, alongside ETH OTM call spreads.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $99,900 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. XRP and SOL are outperforming amid reports that Trump is receptive to the idea of an America-first strategic reserve. BTC ETFs returned to inflows yesterday after a streak of outflows.
Call skew continues to rise, while BTC Mar/Jun basis hovers around 13%. Flows featured Jan/Feb 110k and 120k calls lifted, alongside ETH OTM call spreads.
Paradigm Edge
15 Jan, 21:04
Paradigm Session Recap - January 15, 2025
Spot is up, with BTC at $99,700 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. XRP is outperforming, pushing its market cap to $170 billion. Speculation is growing around SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda potentially rekindling crypto policy as early as next week.
Fronts dipped slightly, while mids and backs held steady. Call skew is increasing. Flows featured the 24 Jan 102k/110k call spread and 28 Feb 3400/3000 risk reversal bought.
Spot is up, with BTC at $99,700 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. XRP is outperforming, pushing its market cap to $170 billion. Speculation is growing around SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda potentially rekindling crypto policy as early as next week.
Fronts dipped slightly, while mids and backs held steady. Call skew is increasing. Flows featured the 24 Jan 102k/110k call spread and 28 Feb 3400/3000 risk reversal bought.
Paradigm Edge
14 Jan, 21:29
Paradigm Session Recap - January 14, 2025
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,500 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. The market is focused on tomorrow’s CPI release following today’s softer PPI report. Fed Funds Futures now price 20% odds of a 25 bps cut in March. IBIT options open interest has grown to $11 billion notional, nearly half of Deribit’s BTC open interest.
Vols and skew remain steady. Flows included the Dec 80k/180k risk reversal bought at 62v/65v and the Mar 130k call sold at 64v. ETH OTM call spreads were lifted.
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,500 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. The market is focused on tomorrow’s CPI release following today’s softer PPI report. Fed Funds Futures now price 20% odds of a 25 bps cut in March. IBIT options open interest has grown to $11 billion notional, nearly half of Deribit’s BTC open interest.
Vols and skew remain steady. Flows included the Dec 80k/180k risk reversal bought at 62v/65v and the Mar 130k call sold at 64v. ETH OTM call spreads were lifted.
Paradigm Edge
13 Jan, 22:47
Paradigm Session Recap - January 13, 2025
Spot is flat, with BTC at $94,400 and ETH at $3,100 as of this writing. While some suggest the post-US election honeymoon is over, attention is shifting toward the upcoming inauguration. There is speculation that Trump could issue executive orders addressing crypto debanking and SAB 121. December CPI is due on Wednesday, with consensus at 2.9% headline and 3.3% core, alongside bank earnings.
Implieds and realizeds edged higher. Basis now sits around 12% annualized. Flows featured BTC put spreads and ETH puts sold.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $94,400 and ETH at $3,100 as of this writing. While some suggest the post-US election honeymoon is over, attention is shifting toward the upcoming inauguration. There is speculation that Trump could issue executive orders addressing crypto debanking and SAB 121. December CPI is due on Wednesday, with consensus at 2.9% headline and 3.3% core, alongside bank earnings.
Implieds and realizeds edged higher. Basis now sits around 12% annualized. Flows featured BTC put spreads and ETH puts sold.
Paradigm Edge
09 Jan, 21:47
Paradigm Session Recap - January 9, 2025
Spot is down, with BTC at $92,000 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. Wisconsin Republican Bryan Steil has been appointed to lead the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence under the House Financial Services Committee.
BTC fronts continue to climb, with put skew increasing. Notable trades included the 27-Jun-25 55k put sold at 66v, and the 17-Jan-25 90k and 92k puts lifted at 56v and 54v, respectively.
Spot is down, with BTC at $92,000 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. Wisconsin Republican Bryan Steil has been appointed to lead the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence under the House Financial Services Committee.
BTC fronts continue to climb, with put skew increasing. Notable trades included the 27-Jun-25 55k put sold at 66v, and the 17-Jan-25 90k and 92k puts lifted at 56v and 54v, respectively.
Paradigm Edge
08 Jan, 20:43
Paradigm Session Recap - January 8, 2025
Spot is down, with BTC at $94,100 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.70%. Fed minutes reiterated a hawkish stance, noting that "almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased." Tomorrow, equities will be closed in memory of Jimmy Carter.
BTC fronts continue to climb, while frontend skew flipped to puts. Notably, the 28 Mar 25 55k Put was sold at 76v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $94,100 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.70%. Fed minutes reiterated a hawkish stance, noting that "almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased." Tomorrow, equities will be closed in memory of Jimmy Carter.
BTC fronts continue to climb, while frontend skew flipped to puts. Notably, the 28 Mar 25 55k Put was sold at 76v.
Paradigm Edge
07 Jan, 22:18
Paradigm Session Recap - January 7, 2025
Spot is down, with BTC at $96,800 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Equities declined as Treasury yields continued to climb. US CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam announced he will step down on January 20, with a16z’s head of policy Brian Quintenz reportedly the leading candidate to replace him. The last two trading days saw over $900 million in inflows into spot BTC ETFs, spread across BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale products.
BTC fronts are slightly up, now sitting in the high 40s, while backs remain in the low 60s. Spot-Vol and Spot-Skew correlations remain muted. BTC flows were mixed featuring calendars. In ETH we saw some downside protection buying.
Spot is down, with BTC at $96,800 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Equities declined as Treasury yields continued to climb. US CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam announced he will step down on January 20, with a16z’s head of policy Brian Quintenz reportedly the leading candidate to replace him. The last two trading days saw over $900 million in inflows into spot BTC ETFs, spread across BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale products.
BTC fronts are slightly up, now sitting in the high 40s, while backs remain in the low 60s. Spot-Vol and Spot-Skew correlations remain muted. BTC flows were mixed featuring calendars. In ETH we saw some downside protection buying.
Paradigm Edge
06 Jan, 22:20
Paradigm Session Recap - January 6, 2025
Spot is up, with BTC at $101,800 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. Fed minutes are set for release on Wednesday, followed by December payrolls data on Friday. The consensus is 155,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Market participants are pondering whether the Jan 20 inauguration could serve as a catalyst.
Implieds are down slightly as the term structure steepens. Basis spiked and now hovers around 10% annualized. Flows were mixed, with some rolling activity observed.
Spot is up, with BTC at $101,800 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. Fed minutes are set for release on Wednesday, followed by December payrolls data on Friday. The consensus is 155,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Market participants are pondering whether the Jan 20 inauguration could serve as a catalyst.
Implieds are down slightly as the term structure steepens. Basis spiked and now hovers around 10% annualized. Flows were mixed, with some rolling activity observed.
Paradigm Edge
02 Jan, 21:03
Paradigm Session Recap - January 2, 2025
Both BTC and ETH term structures remain in contango. BTC fronts are around 52v and backs near 62v, while ETH fronts sit at 62v and backs at 72v. BTC basis now hovers around 15% annualized. BTC flows were mixed, with ITM calls sold. ETH upside was lifted through OTM call spreads.
Both BTC and ETH term structures remain in contango. BTC fronts are around 52v and backs near 62v, while ETH fronts sit at 62v and backs at 72v. BTC basis now hovers around 15% annualized. BTC flows were mixed, with ITM calls sold. ETH upside was lifted through OTM call spreads.
Paradigm Edge
30 Dec, 20:24
Paradigm Session Recap - December 30, 2024
A slow session saw upside lifted through OTM call spreads. We want to thank everyone for 2024's milestones. Wishing y'all a prosperous and rewarding New Year.
A slow session saw upside lifted through OTM call spreads. We want to thank everyone for 2024's milestones. Wishing y'all a prosperous and rewarding New Year.
Paradigm Edge
26 Dec, 20:20
Paradigm Session Recap - December 26, 2024
Spot is trading lower, with BTC at $95,500 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Enthusiasm is mounting on regulation after Trump's inauguration. Industry participants are monitoring whether the SEC will move forward with Regulation ATS and if the agency will proactively evaluate new products such as staking ETFs. Rep. French Hill, elected Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, designated FIT21 and stablecoin regulation as top priorities for Congress.
Fronts are down slightly while backs are steady. The 28 Mar 25 140k Call was lifted at 68v.
Spot is trading lower, with BTC at $95,500 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Enthusiasm is mounting on regulation after Trump's inauguration. Industry participants are monitoring whether the SEC will move forward with Regulation ATS and if the agency will proactively evaluate new products such as staking ETFs. Rep. French Hill, elected Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, designated FIT21 and stablecoin regulation as top priorities for Congress.
Fronts are down slightly while backs are steady. The 28 Mar 25 140k Call was lifted at 68v.
Paradigm Edge
23 Dec, 21:38
Paradigm Session Recap - December 23, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $94,000 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. This Friday, December 27, $13.8 billion in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of $84k, alongside $3.8 billion in ETH options with a max pain price of $3k. Despite diminished liquidity, some rolling activity could take place this week.
Implieds are down. The BTC term structure is in contango, with fronts around 50v and backs near 60v, while ETH is flat-ish around 72v. Skew flipped calls. Flows featured OTM calls bought and puts sold.
Spot is down, with BTC at $94,000 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. This Friday, December 27, $13.8 billion in BTC options are set to expire with a max pain price of $84k, alongside $3.8 billion in ETH options with a max pain price of $3k. Despite diminished liquidity, some rolling activity could take place this week.
Implieds are down. The BTC term structure is in contango, with fronts around 50v and backs near 60v, while ETH is flat-ish around 72v. Skew flipped calls. Flows featured OTM calls bought and puts sold.
Paradigm Edge
19 Dec, 22:04
Paradigm Session Recap - December 19, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $97,500 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Tomorrow’s PCE release gained increased relevance as the Fed revised their 2025 PCE projection from 2.1% to 2.5%. Miners such as MARA, Hut 8 and Riot Platforms are taking a page from MicroStrategy's convertible note offering playbook to acquire BTC for their reserves.
Realizeds and implieds edged higher. Tails are being rerated since mid-November as observed in the 25 delta Butterfly. Flows leaned bullish, featuring puts sold and call spreads bought.
Spot is down, with BTC at $97,500 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Tomorrow’s PCE release gained increased relevance as the Fed revised their 2025 PCE projection from 2.1% to 2.5%. Miners such as MARA, Hut 8 and Riot Platforms are taking a page from MicroStrategy's convertible note offering playbook to acquire BTC for their reserves.
Realizeds and implieds edged higher. Tails are being rerated since mid-November as observed in the 25 delta Butterfly. Flows leaned bullish, featuring puts sold and call spreads bought.
Paradigm Edge
18 Dec, 22:08
Paradigm Session Recap - December 18, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $100,700 and ETH at $3,700 as of this writing. Risk assets were hit broadly following the Fed’s non-unanimous decision to lower rates by 25 bps. Projections indicate two cuts in 2025 as Chair Powell reiterates a cautious stance.
Fronts moved higher as spot retraced, while backs remained unchanged. Skew flipped puts. Flows featured puts bought and call spreads sold. The 27 Dec 24 97k Put was lifted at 54v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $100,700 and ETH at $3,700 as of this writing. Risk assets were hit broadly following the Fed’s non-unanimous decision to lower rates by 25 bps. Projections indicate two cuts in 2025 as Chair Powell reiterates a cautious stance.
Fronts moved higher as spot retraced, while backs remained unchanged. Skew flipped puts. Flows featured puts bought and call spreads sold. The 27 Dec 24 97k Put was lifted at 54v.
Paradigm Edge
17 Dec, 21:36
Paradigm Session Recap - December 17, 2024
Spot is flat, with BTC at $106,400 and ETH at $3,900 as of this writing. Focus now shifts to the Fed policy path, with projections expected to signal just a couple of cuts in 2025. Beyond the known balance of risks, the incoming Trump administration's proposals on trade, immigration, and regulation could significantly influence the outlook for growth and inflation.
Realizeds and implieds are down slightly. The ETH volatility premium remains wide. Flows leaned bearish, with puts bought and calls sold. The 3 Jan 25 100k Put was lifted at 54v.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $106,400 and ETH at $3,900 as of this writing. Focus now shifts to the Fed policy path, with projections expected to signal just a couple of cuts in 2025. Beyond the known balance of risks, the incoming Trump administration's proposals on trade, immigration, and regulation could significantly influence the outlook for growth and inflation.
Realizeds and implieds are down slightly. The ETH volatility premium remains wide. Flows leaned bearish, with puts bought and calls sold. The 3 Jan 25 100k Put was lifted at 54v.
Paradigm Edge
16 Dec, 21:16
Paradigm Session Recap - December 16, 2024
Spot rallied to fresh highs, with BTC at $106,000 and ETH at $4,000 as of this writing. Key events this week include the Fed decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET, along with the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell's Q&A. Thursday will bring policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, while Friday features the US PCE release. MicroStrategy is set to enter the Nasdaq 100 Index on Monday, December 23.
The BTC term structure steepened slightly, though vol and skew did not follow spot. Flows featured OTM call spreads lifted, including the 31 Jan 25 115k/125k, 28 Feb 25 5.2k/6k, and 28 Mar 25 7.5k/10k.
Spot rallied to fresh highs, with BTC at $106,000 and ETH at $4,000 as of this writing. Key events this week include the Fed decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET, along with the Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Powell's Q&A. Thursday will bring policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, while Friday features the US PCE release. MicroStrategy is set to enter the Nasdaq 100 Index on Monday, December 23.
The BTC term structure steepened slightly, though vol and skew did not follow spot. Flows featured OTM call spreads lifted, including the 31 Jan 25 115k/125k, 28 Feb 25 5.2k/6k, and 28 Mar 25 7.5k/10k.
Paradigm Edge
04 Dec, 22:57
Paradigm Session Recap - December 4, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $98,400 and ETH at $3,800 as of this writing. Paul Atkins has been confirmed as the nominee for SEC Chair. President-elect Trump stated: "Paul is a proven leader for common-sense regulations. He believes in the promise of robust, innovative capital markets that are responsive to the needs of investors and that provide capital to make our economy the best in the world. He also recognizes that digital assets and other innovations are crucial to making America greater than ever before.".
Implieds and realizeds are both up slightly. The ETH volatility premium is widening significantly. Flows leaned bullish, with puts sold and calls bought. The 27 Jun 25 180k call was lifted at 67v.
Spot is up, with BTC at $98,400 and ETH at $3,800 as of this writing. Paul Atkins has been confirmed as the nominee for SEC Chair. President-elect Trump stated: "Paul is a proven leader for common-sense regulations. He believes in the promise of robust, innovative capital markets that are responsive to the needs of investors and that provide capital to make our economy the best in the world. He also recognizes that digital assets and other innovations are crucial to making America greater than ever before.".
Implieds and realizeds are both up slightly. The ETH volatility premium is widening significantly. Flows leaned bullish, with puts sold and calls bought. The 27 Jun 25 180k call was lifted at 67v.
Paradigm Edge
03 Dec, 22:23
Paradigm Session Recap - December 3, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,100 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. US government wallets moved $1.9 billion worth of seized Silk Road BTC. Reports suggest Paul Atkins, former SEC Commissioner (2002–2008), is a leading contender for SEC Chair. His pro-innovation stance would be a positive for the industry.
The term structure steepened slightly, with fronts down a notch. Flows were mixed, with calendars bought and sold. The 31 Jan 25 115k call was lifted at 60v. ETH flows were muted featuring some call selling.
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,100 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. US government wallets moved $1.9 billion worth of seized Silk Road BTC. Reports suggest Paul Atkins, former SEC Commissioner (2002–2008), is a leading contender for SEC Chair. His pro-innovation stance would be a positive for the industry.
The term structure steepened slightly, with fronts down a notch. Flows were mixed, with calendars bought and sold. The 31 Jan 25 115k call was lifted at 60v. ETH flows were muted featuring some call selling.
Paradigm Edge
02 Dec, 22:25
Paradigm Session Recap - December 2, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $95,400 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. XRP is the notable exception, rallying 26%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed to new records. Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he is leaning toward cut in the December FOMC, with Fed Funds Futures now pricing 74% odds of -25 bps. Chair Powell is set for a moderated discussion on Wednesday, and November payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 am ET.
Vols are down a notch. BTC term structure is in contango, with fronts around 50v and backs around 60v, while ETH is in slight backwardation, with fronts at 71v and backs at 68v. Flows were mixed, featuring put spreads bought and OTM outrights both bought and sold. The BTC 27 Dec 24 180k call was bought at 100v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $95,400 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. XRP is the notable exception, rallying 26%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed to new records. Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he is leaning toward cut in the December FOMC, with Fed Funds Futures now pricing 74% odds of -25 bps. Chair Powell is set for a moderated discussion on Wednesday, and November payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 am ET.
Vols are down a notch. BTC term structure is in contango, with fronts around 50v and backs around 60v, while ETH is in slight backwardation, with fronts at 71v and backs at 68v. Flows were mixed, featuring put spreads bought and OTM outrights both bought and sold. The BTC 27 Dec 24 180k call was bought at 100v.
Paradigm Edge
27 Nov, 22:31
Paradigm Session Recap - November 27, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,400 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. Lower correlation works both ways, as crypto climbs amid equities weakness. Regulatory developments made headlines: the United States Court of Appeals Fifth Circuit ruled that OFAC exceeded its authority in sanctioning Tornado Cash, and reports suggest the Trump administration eyes CFTC to lead digital asset regulation. Expect muted volumes during US hours tomorrow due to Thanksgiving.
The term structure steepened, with fronts down and backs slightly up. Put skew is softening. Flows were mixed, including Dec 97k calls sold and Mar OTM call spreads bought. The ETH Dec 3.8k/4.1k call spread was lifted at 75v/76v.
Spot is up, with BTC at $96,400 and ETH at $3,600 as of this writing. Lower correlation works both ways, as crypto climbs amid equities weakness. Regulatory developments made headlines: the United States Court of Appeals Fifth Circuit ruled that OFAC exceeded its authority in sanctioning Tornado Cash, and reports suggest the Trump administration eyes CFTC to lead digital asset regulation. Expect muted volumes during US hours tomorrow due to Thanksgiving.
The term structure steepened, with fronts down and backs slightly up. Put skew is softening. Flows were mixed, including Dec 97k calls sold and Mar OTM call spreads bought. The ETH Dec 3.8k/4.1k call spread was lifted at 75v/76v.
Paradigm Edge
26 Nov, 23:36
Paradigm Session Recap - November 26, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $91,700 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The equities-crypto rolling correlation is declining as the S&P 500 hit fresh highs while BTC retraces. Fed minutes emphasized caution, leaving upcoming data likely to sway sentiment.
BTC Weeklies are slightly up, while the rest of the curve is down a notch. Skew increasingly favors puts. Realizeds edged higher but remain stable, with BTC VRP at 10 and ETH VRP at -2. Flows leaned bullish, with outrights and calendars lifted. The Dec 92k Straddle was bought and sold around 56/57v, and the ETH 28-Mar-25 4k/5k Call Spread was bought at 72v/75v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $91,700 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The equities-crypto rolling correlation is declining as the S&P 500 hit fresh highs while BTC retraces. Fed minutes emphasized caution, leaving upcoming data likely to sway sentiment.
BTC Weeklies are slightly up, while the rest of the curve is down a notch. Skew increasingly favors puts. Realizeds edged higher but remain stable, with BTC VRP at 10 and ETH VRP at -2. Flows leaned bullish, with outrights and calendars lifted. The Dec 92k Straddle was bought and sold around 56/57v, and the ETH 28-Mar-25 4k/5k Call Spread was bought at 72v/75v.
Paradigm Edge
25 Nov, 23:47
Paradigm Session Recap - November 25, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $93,100 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Tomorrow, the Nov 6-7 FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET - the Fed Funds Futures market is split between a hold or cut decision in December. On Wednesday, PCE data is due at 10am, followed by Thanksgiving on Thursday. Microstrategy announced its largest BTC purchase ever, acquiring 55,500 BTC for $5.4 billion.
The BTC term structure is flat around 60v, while ETH remains in backwardation with fronts at 80v and backs at 70v. BTC front-end skew flipped to puts. Flows leaned bearish, with call spreads sold and puts bought. A 44,000x Dec ETH custom trade printed.
Spot is down, with BTC at $93,100 and ETH at $3,400 as of this writing. Tomorrow, the Nov 6-7 FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET - the Fed Funds Futures market is split between a hold or cut decision in December. On Wednesday, PCE data is due at 10am, followed by Thanksgiving on Thursday. Microstrategy announced its largest BTC purchase ever, acquiring 55,500 BTC for $5.4 billion.
The BTC term structure is flat around 60v, while ETH remains in backwardation with fronts at 80v and backs at 70v. BTC front-end skew flipped to puts. Flows leaned bearish, with call spreads sold and puts bought. A 44,000x Dec ETH custom trade printed.
Paradigm Edge
22 Nov, 00:04
Paradigm Session Recap - November 21, 2024
Bitcoin broke another high today, trading at $98,500 at the time of writing. Citron Research tweets “…MSTR is overheated”. MSTR closed the session down 16%.
BTC flow leans bearish (risk reversals + put buying), while ETH sees mixed sentiment, with aggressive Dec call buying vs straddle sales.
ETH with some spotlight for once. On the back of its 10% rally, ETH’s implied vol outperforming BTC across maturities. The ETHBTC implied volatility spread for Dec 27, 2024, has widened to 13.4 points (ETH at 70.8V vs BTC at 57.4V).
Bitcoin broke another high today, trading at $98,500 at the time of writing. Citron Research tweets “…MSTR is overheated”. MSTR closed the session down 16%.
BTC flow leans bearish (risk reversals + put buying), while ETH sees mixed sentiment, with aggressive Dec call buying vs straddle sales.
ETH with some spotlight for once. On the back of its 10% rally, ETH’s implied vol outperforming BTC across maturities. The ETHBTC implied volatility spread for Dec 27, 2024, has widened to 13.4 points (ETH at 70.8V vs BTC at 57.4V).
Paradigm Edge
20 Nov, 23:32
Paradigm Session Recap - November 20, 2024
Bitcoin broke another high today, trading at $94,300 at the time of writing. Nvidia reported Q3 earnings. Despite surpassing expectations, it is down -1% afterhours.
Option flows observed rolling to higher strikes and later maturities. The largest activity involved closing sales of ITM March 85K calls to open positions at higher 120K and 130K strikes. June activity also picked up, with notable outright purchases of June 130K calls and rolls from December 85K calls into June 130Ks. The term structure is softening in the front-end and reverting to contango, driven by these notable rolls and outright call buying.
Bitcoin broke another high today, trading at $94,300 at the time of writing. Nvidia reported Q3 earnings. Despite surpassing expectations, it is down -1% afterhours.
Option flows observed rolling to higher strikes and later maturities. The largest activity involved closing sales of ITM March 85K calls to open positions at higher 120K and 130K strikes. June activity also picked up, with notable outright purchases of June 130K calls and rolls from December 85K calls into June 130Ks. The term structure is softening in the front-end and reverting to contango, driven by these notable rolls and outright call buying.
Paradigm Edge
20 Nov, 00:15
Paradigm Session Recap - November 19, 2024
BTC new ATH of $93,800 earlier in the session and ETH trading slightly lower at $3,100. iBIT options went live today. "Final tally of $IBIT's 1st day of options is just shy of $1.9 billion in notional exposure traded via 354k contracts. 289k were Calls & 65k were Puts. That's a ratio of 4.4:1. These options were almost certainly part of the move to the new #Bitcoin all time highs today" (Source)
Notable options flows were 1,000-lot BTC 95,000/105,000/110,000/115,000 Call Condor purchase and profit taking on ITM nov/dec calls.
BTC new ATH of $93,800 earlier in the session and ETH trading slightly lower at $3,100. iBIT options went live today. "Final tally of $IBIT's 1st day of options is just shy of $1.9 billion in notional exposure traded via 354k contracts. 289k were Calls & 65k were Puts. That's a ratio of 4.4:1. These options were almost certainly part of the move to the new #Bitcoin all time highs today" (Source)
Notable options flows were 1,000-lot BTC 95,000/105,000/110,000/115,000 Call Condor purchase and profit taking on ITM nov/dec calls.
Paradigm Edge
14 Nov, 21:31
Paradigm Session Recap - November 14, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $88,100 and ETH at $3,100 as of this writing. Chair Powell emphasized caution in his speech today. Stocks edged lower, and Fed Funds Futures now imply a 59% chance of a 25 bps cut in December. ETH ETFs are seeing increased inflows, exceeding $500 million this week.
Fronts are down, with term structures relatively flat from 29 Nov onward - BTC ATMs around 57v and ETH ATMs around 61v. Realizeds continue to trend upward. Flows leaned bullish, with 80k puts sold and OTM call spreads bought. The ETH 28 Mar 25 3300/4400 call spread was bought at 61v/63v, 22125x.
Spot is down, with BTC at $88,100 and ETH at $3,100 as of this writing. Chair Powell emphasized caution in his speech today. Stocks edged lower, and Fed Funds Futures now imply a 59% chance of a 25 bps cut in December. ETH ETFs are seeing increased inflows, exceeding $500 million this week.
Fronts are down, with term structures relatively flat from 29 Nov onward - BTC ATMs around 57v and ETH ATMs around 61v. Realizeds continue to trend upward. Flows leaned bullish, with 80k puts sold and OTM call spreads bought. The ETH 28 Mar 25 3300/4400 call spread was bought at 61v/63v, 22125x.
Paradigm Edge
13 Nov, 21:40
Paradigm Session Recap - November 13, 2024
Spot is flat, with BTC at $89,400 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. CPI headline and core matched expectations at 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Fed Funds Futures now imply 82% odds of a 25 bps cut in December. Coinbase and miner stocks are down today after a streak of strong sessions.
Implieds were largely unchanged, while realizeds continue to climb. BTC VRP sits at -10, and ETH VRP at -25. Flows leaned bullish, with OTM calls lifted - the Dec 100k call was bought at 60v.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $89,400 and ETH at $3,200 as of this writing. CPI headline and core matched expectations at 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Fed Funds Futures now imply 82% odds of a 25 bps cut in December. Coinbase and miner stocks are down today after a streak of strong sessions.
Implieds were largely unchanged, while realizeds continue to climb. BTC VRP sits at -10, and ETH VRP at -25. Flows leaned bullish, with OTM calls lifted - the Dec 100k call was bought at 60v.
Paradigm Edge
12 Nov, 22:24
Paradigm Session Recap - November 12, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $88,200 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The Washington Post reports that Trump is considering pro-crypto appointments to key federal agencies, including the SEC and CFTC. Treasury yields continue climbing, with the 10y now at 4.43%.
Vols are down slightly, and term structures remain in backwardation. BTC 27 Dec basis now sits at 15% annualized. Flows were mixed today. The ETH 27 Dec 3800 call was lifted at 68v. There was also some ITM SOL call selling.
Spot is up, with BTC at $88,200 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. The Washington Post reports that Trump is considering pro-crypto appointments to key federal agencies, including the SEC and CFTC. Treasury yields continue climbing, with the 10y now at 4.43%.
Vols are down slightly, and term structures remain in backwardation. BTC 27 Dec basis now sits at 15% annualized. Flows were mixed today. The ETH 27 Dec 3800 call was lifted at 68v. There was also some ITM SOL call selling.
Paradigm Edge
11 Nov, 22:53
Paradigm Session Recap - November 11, 2024
Spot is rallying, with BTC at $87,600 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted that the "Bitcoin Industrial Complex" (ETFs, MSTR, COIN) saw $38 billion in volume today, shattering previous records. This week, we have CPI on Wednesday, along with PPI and a Chair Powell speech on Thursday.
Vols are up, with fronts at 70v and backs at 55v. Call skew increased slightly, though both vol and skew are muted if we look at Spot-Vol and Spot-Skew correlations. Flows were bullish, with Nov/Dec calls lifted and more than $500k in vega bought. It was another huge day, with $2.4 billion traded.
Spot is rallying, with BTC at $87,600 and ETH at $3,300 as of this writing. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted that the "Bitcoin Industrial Complex" (ETFs, MSTR, COIN) saw $38 billion in volume today, shattering previous records. This week, we have CPI on Wednesday, along with PPI and a Chair Powell speech on Thursday.
Vols are up, with fronts at 70v and backs at 55v. Call skew increased slightly, though both vol and skew are muted if we look at Spot-Vol and Spot-Skew correlations. Flows were bullish, with Nov/Dec calls lifted and more than $500k in vega bought. It was another huge day, with $2.4 billion traded.
Paradigm Edge
07 Nov, 22:13
Paradigm Session Recap - November 7, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $75,800 and ETH at $2,900 as of this writing. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached new all-time highs. The Fed followed through with the expected 25 bps cut in a unanimous decision, and Fed Funds Futures now imply a 71% chance of another 25 bps cut in December.
Fronts continue to retrace. ETH 27 Dec basis now sits at 12% annualized. BTC flows leaned bullish, with OTM call spreads bought. The 28 Mar 25 ETH 2800/3800 Call Spread was sold at 63v/64v, 42375x.
Spot is up, with BTC at $75,800 and ETH at $2,900 as of this writing. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached new all-time highs. The Fed followed through with the expected 25 bps cut in a unanimous decision, and Fed Funds Futures now imply a 71% chance of another 25 bps cut in December.
Fronts continue to retrace. ETH 27 Dec basis now sits at 12% annualized. BTC flows leaned bullish, with OTM call spreads bought. The 28 Mar 25 ETH 2800/3800 Call Spread was sold at 63v/64v, 42375x.
Paradigm Edge
06 Nov, 22:32
Paradigm Session Recap - November 6, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $75,700 and ETH at $2,700 as of this writing. Alongside the resounding presidential election results, several Senate outcomes bode well for the industry. In Ohio, crypto-friendly Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, crypto skeptic and chair of the US Senate Banking Committee. IBIT had its largest volume day ever, with $4.1 billion traded. Tomorrow we have the FOMC decision at 2pm ET.
The BTC term structure is now flat around 55v. BTC 27 Dec basis sits at 12% annualized. BTC flows were mixed, with some participants adding 29 Nov calls, while another bought the Mar 60k/120k bear risk reversal. ETH flows leaned bullish, with calls lifted in Dec/Mar.
Spot is up, with BTC at $75,700 and ETH at $2,700 as of this writing. Alongside the resounding presidential election results, several Senate outcomes bode well for the industry. In Ohio, crypto-friendly Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, crypto skeptic and chair of the US Senate Banking Committee. IBIT had its largest volume day ever, with $4.1 billion traded. Tomorrow we have the FOMC decision at 2pm ET.
The BTC term structure is now flat around 55v. BTC 27 Dec basis sits at 12% annualized. BTC flows were mixed, with some participants adding 29 Nov calls, while another bought the Mar 60k/120k bear risk reversal. ETH flows leaned bullish, with calls lifted in Dec/Mar.
Paradigm Edge
05 Nov, 23:19
Paradigm Session Recap - November 5, 2024
Spot is slightly up, with BTC at $69,600 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. BTC spot ETFs saw outflows totaling $541 million. Markets await the US election results, especially in the seven swing states. Polls close at 7pm ET in Georgia, 7:30pm in North Carolina, 8pm in Pennsylvania, 9pm in Arizona/Michigan/Wisconsin, and 10pm in Nevada.
8 Nov ATM now sits at 108v. Longer tenors remain flat, with BTC 27 Dec at 59v and BTC 28 Mar 25 at 56v. Flows were mixed with 8 Nov puts and calls across the Nov and Dec tenors lifted.
Spot is slightly up, with BTC at $69,600 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. BTC spot ETFs saw outflows totaling $541 million. Markets await the US election results, especially in the seven swing states. Polls close at 7pm ET in Georgia, 7:30pm in North Carolina, 8pm in Pennsylvania, 9pm in Arizona/Michigan/Wisconsin, and 10pm in Nevada.
8 Nov ATM now sits at 108v. Longer tenors remain flat, with BTC 27 Dec at 59v and BTC 28 Mar 25 at 56v. Flows were mixed with 8 Nov puts and calls across the Nov and Dec tenors lifted.
Paradigm Edge
05 Nov, 00:04
Paradigm Session Recap - November 4, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $67,800 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. All eyes are on the US election tomorrow, November 5. Initial results are expected after the first polls close at 7pm ET. Pennsylvania, a key swing state, does not permit mail ballots to be processed before Election Day. The FOMC decision on Thursday at 2pm ET is anticipated to deliver a 25 bps cut. While this meeting will not feature a Summary of Economic Projections, market participants will be watching closely for any clues on the policy path ahead.
Fronts continue to climb, with this week’s expiries now exceeding 90v. BTC 27 Dec basis is at 10% annualized. Flows were mixed, with both calls and puts bought. Another market participant bought 60k puts financed by 80k calls, both at 65v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $67,800 and ETH at $2,400 as of this writing. All eyes are on the US election tomorrow, November 5. Initial results are expected after the first polls close at 7pm ET. Pennsylvania, a key swing state, does not permit mail ballots to be processed before Election Day. The FOMC decision on Thursday at 2pm ET is anticipated to deliver a 25 bps cut. While this meeting will not feature a Summary of Economic Projections, market participants will be watching closely for any clues on the policy path ahead.
Fronts continue to climb, with this week’s expiries now exceeding 90v. BTC 27 Dec basis is at 10% annualized. Flows were mixed, with both calls and puts bought. Another market participant bought 60k puts financed by 80k calls, both at 65v.
Paradigm Edge
31 Oct, 21:52
Paradigm Session Recap - October 31, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $70,300 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. Spot ETFs continued their impressive streak, recording $893.3 million in inflows yesterday. According to Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, IBIT attracted more cash than any other ETF globally over the past week, surpassing even the behemoths IVV and VOO. The Nasdaq fell 2.8% as Microsoft and Meta sold off following earnings and guidance releases.
8 Nov is slightly up, while other tenors are slightly down. Flows leaned bullish, with calls lifted across different tenors. The BTC 28 Mar 25 85k Call was bought at 56v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $70,300 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. Spot ETFs continued their impressive streak, recording $893.3 million in inflows yesterday. According to Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, IBIT attracted more cash than any other ETF globally over the past week, surpassing even the behemoths IVV and VOO. The Nasdaq fell 2.8% as Microsoft and Meta sold off following earnings and guidance releases.
8 Nov is slightly up, while other tenors are slightly down. Flows leaned bullish, with calls lifted across different tenors. The BTC 28 Mar 25 85k Call was bought at 56v.
Paradigm Edge
30 Oct, 23:11
Paradigm Session Recap - October 30, 2024
Spot is flat, with BTC at $72,400 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Spot ETFs saw $870.1 million in inflows yesterday, marking the third-largest print on record. Microstrategy announced plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years, evenly split between equity and fixed income securities.
Vols are slightly down, and front-end skew flipped to puts. Basis remains elevated, and the 25 delta butterfly is unchanged. Flows leaned bearish, with calls sold and put spreads bought.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $72,400 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Spot ETFs saw $870.1 million in inflows yesterday, marking the third-largest print on record. Microstrategy announced plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years, evenly split between equity and fixed income securities.
Vols are slightly down, and front-end skew flipped to puts. Basis remains elevated, and the 25 delta butterfly is unchanged. Flows leaned bearish, with calls sold and put spreads bought.
Paradigm Edge
29 Oct, 22:32
Paradigm Session Recap - October 29, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $72,400 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. The Nasdaq Composite reached new highs today, propelled by a tech stocks rally. Spot ETFs continued their momentum with $479.4 million in net inflows yesterday. Market participants are closely tracking the Senate races in Ohio (Brown vs. Moreno) and Montana (Tester vs. Sheehy), which could influence the future of US crypto policy.
Vols are up across the board, with BTC 8 Nov now at 68v. Call skew retraced slightly. Flows were mixed. The SOL 8 Nov 24 220 Call was sold at 94v.
Spot is up, with BTC at $72,400 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. The Nasdaq Composite reached new highs today, propelled by a tech stocks rally. Spot ETFs continued their momentum with $479.4 million in net inflows yesterday. Market participants are closely tracking the Senate races in Ohio (Brown vs. Moreno) and Montana (Tester vs. Sheehy), which could influence the future of US crypto policy.
Vols are up across the board, with BTC 8 Nov now at 68v. Call skew retraced slightly. Flows were mixed. The SOL 8 Nov 24 220 Call was sold at 94v.
Paradigm Edge
28 Oct, 23:07
Paradigm Session Recap - October 28, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $70,000 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. This week, earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft are due. We will also have the Bank of Japan policy decision on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Market participants continue tracking election developments as we near November 5th.
Implieds keep climbing, with BTC 8 Nov now at 65v, still the term structure peak. Realizeds remain largely unchanged. Basis is also rising, with BTC 27 Dec 24 at 12.7% annualized. Flows were muted, featuring some call buying and put spread selling.
Spot is up, with BTC at $70,000 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. This week, earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft are due. We will also have the Bank of Japan policy decision on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Market participants continue tracking election developments as we near November 5th.
Implieds keep climbing, with BTC 8 Nov now at 65v, still the term structure peak. Realizeds remain largely unchanged. Basis is also rising, with BTC 27 Dec 24 at 12.7% annualized. Flows were muted, featuring some call buying and put spread selling.
Paradigm Edge
24 Oct, 22:30
Paradigm Session Recap - October 24, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $68,400 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. Market participants continue adjusting exposure ahead of the US election. In addition to the presidency, the House and Senate results could have implications of paramount importance for the industry. SOL is outperforming, hitting all-time highs both against ETH and dominance-wise.
BTC 8 Nov continues to trend upward, now at 59v, the peak of the term structure. 7-day realizeds remain below implieds. The BTC 28 Mar 25 55k/110k bear risk reversal was bought at 55v/60v. There were also a few small SOL prints.
Spot is up, with BTC at $68,400 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. Market participants continue adjusting exposure ahead of the US election. In addition to the presidency, the House and Senate results could have implications of paramount importance for the industry. SOL is outperforming, hitting all-time highs both against ETH and dominance-wise.
BTC 8 Nov continues to trend upward, now at 59v, the peak of the term structure. 7-day realizeds remain below implieds. The BTC 28 Mar 25 55k/110k bear risk reversal was bought at 55v/60v. There were also a few small SOL prints.
Paradigm Edge
23 Oct, 22:22
Paradigm Session Recap - October 23, 2024
Spot is down, with BTC at $66,400 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, with all members of the 'Magnificent Seven' closing lower. Tesla is up in after-hours trading following its Q3 earnings report. Spot ETFs saw modest outflows of $79.1 million yesterday, ending an impressive seven-day streak that totaled $2.6 billion in inflows.
November ATMs are slightly up, while longer expiries remain unchanged. BTC 8 Nov is trading at 57v, the same level of BTC 26 Sep 25. The BTC 27 Dec 24 45k/100k Strangle was sold at 61v/61v.
Spot is down, with BTC at $66,400 and ETH at $2,500 as of this writing. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, with all members of the 'Magnificent Seven' closing lower. Tesla is up in after-hours trading following its Q3 earnings report. Spot ETFs saw modest outflows of $79.1 million yesterday, ending an impressive seven-day streak that totaled $2.6 billion in inflows.
November ATMs are slightly up, while longer expiries remain unchanged. BTC 8 Nov is trading at 57v, the same level of BTC 26 Sep 25. The BTC 27 Dec 24 45k/100k Strangle was sold at 61v/61v.
Paradigm Edge
22 Oct, 22:15
Paradigm Session Recap - October 22, 2024
Spot is flat, with BTC at $67,600 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Market participants are debating the impact of options on spot bitcoin ETFs. Some expect US retail, who currently lack access to perpetual swaps, to use IBIT options to speculate and bid volatility, while others anticipate vol selling by institutionals to dominate.
October ATMs continue to trend down. Flows were mixed, with the largest print being the 27 Jun 25 55k/120k bear risk reversal, bought at 57v/61v - taking advantage of the call skew.
Spot is flat, with BTC at $67,600 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Market participants are debating the impact of options on spot bitcoin ETFs. Some expect US retail, who currently lack access to perpetual swaps, to use IBIT options to speculate and bid volatility, while others anticipate vol selling by institutionals to dominate.
October ATMs continue to trend down. Flows were mixed, with the largest print being the 27 Jun 25 55k/120k bear risk reversal, bought at 57v/61v - taking advantage of the call skew.
Paradigm Edge
21 Oct, 21:43
Paradigm Session Recap - October 21, 2024
Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $67,700 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. This Friday, 25 Oct, $4.2 billion in BTC options are set to expire, with a max pain price of 64k, along with $1 billion in ETH options, with a max pain price of 2.6k. BTC spot ETFs saw $273 million in inflows last Friday.
October ATMs are down, while 8 Nov remains flat as market participants position for the US election. Skew is steepening toward calls. Flows leaned bullish, with calls bought and puts sold. The SOL 29 Nov 24 200 Call was lifted at 79v.
Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $67,700 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. This Friday, 25 Oct, $4.2 billion in BTC options are set to expire, with a max pain price of 64k, along with $1 billion in ETH options, with a max pain price of 2.6k. BTC spot ETFs saw $273 million in inflows last Friday.
October ATMs are down, while 8 Nov remains flat as market participants position for the US election. Skew is steepening toward calls. Flows leaned bullish, with calls bought and puts sold. The SOL 29 Nov 24 200 Call was lifted at 79v.
Paradigm Edge
17 Oct, 22:29
Paradigm Session Recap - October 17, 2024
Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $67,300 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Chip stocks gained following TSMC's strong results and guidance. BTC spot ETFs continued their streak with $458 million in inflows to surpass $20 billion in total cumulative flow — a milestone that, as Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted, took gold ETFs five years to achieve.
Fronts are down, while mids and backs remain unchanged, with 7-day implieds now sitting below realizeds. Flows were mixed, with the ETH 27 Dec 24 2300 Put lifted at 61v.
Spot is down slightly, with BTC at $67,300 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Chip stocks gained following TSMC's strong results and guidance. BTC spot ETFs continued their streak with $458 million in inflows to surpass $20 billion in total cumulative flow — a milestone that, as Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noted, took gold ETFs five years to achieve.
Fronts are down, while mids and backs remain unchanged, with 7-day implieds now sitting below realizeds. Flows were mixed, with the ETH 27 Dec 24 2300 Put lifted at 61v.
Paradigm Edge
16 Oct, 22:13
Paradigm Session Recap - October 16, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $67,600 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. As the US presidential election draws closer, the market is closely tracking surveys in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. BTC spot ETFs saw another strong day of inflows totaling $371 million.
ATMs were largely unchanged as Spot-Vol correlation is muted. Flows were mixed, featuring the Mar 25 120k call lifted at 64v (600x, $1,120,892 premium).
Spot is up, with BTC at $67,600 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. As the US presidential election draws closer, the market is closely tracking surveys in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. BTC spot ETFs saw another strong day of inflows totaling $371 million.
ATMs were largely unchanged as Spot-Vol correlation is muted. Flows were mixed, featuring the Mar 25 120k call lifted at 64v (600x, $1,120,892 premium).
Paradigm Edge
15 Oct, 22:06
Paradigm Session Recap - October 15, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $66,500 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Despite strong bank earnings, equities closed lower as a selloff in chip stocks weighed on the Nasdaq. Oil prices dropped after reports indicated that the Israeli counterstrike would not target Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure. US spot BTC ETFs saw $555.9 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the largest print since June.
Fronts and mids are slightly up again. Basis retraced, with BTC 27 Dec 24 now at 6.6% annualized. Flows were mixed, with the 28 Mar 25 50k/100k risk reversal bought at 58v/60v.
Spot is up, with BTC at $66,500 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. Despite strong bank earnings, equities closed lower as a selloff in chip stocks weighed on the Nasdaq. Oil prices dropped after reports indicated that the Israeli counterstrike would not target Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure. US spot BTC ETFs saw $555.9 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the largest print since June.
Fronts and mids are slightly up again. Basis retraced, with BTC 27 Dec 24 now at 6.6% annualized. Flows were mixed, with the 28 Mar 25 50k/100k risk reversal bought at 58v/60v.
Paradigm Edge
14 Oct, 23:41
Paradigm Session Recap - October 14, 2024
Spot is up, with BTC at $66,000 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. The S&P 500 hit fresh highs today, following an announcement by the Chinese Finance Minister over the weekend about additional stimulus. Tomorrow, earnings from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are due before the bell. On Thursday, retail sales and industrial production data will be released, along with the ECB decision. Crypto sentiment was lifted by the Mt. Gox Trustee’s decision to extend the repayment deadline by one year to October 31, 2025.
ATMs from fronts to mids are up, but Spot-Vol correlation remains largely apathetic. The session saw mixed flows, with calls bought and sold. The 28 Mar 25 45k/110k Strangle was sold, with vols at 62% and 59%.
Spot is up, with BTC at $66,000 and ETH at $2,600 as of this writing. The S&P 500 hit fresh highs today, following an announcement by the Chinese Finance Minister over the weekend about additional stimulus. Tomorrow, earnings from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs are due before the bell. On Thursday, retail sales and industrial production data will be released, along with the ECB decision. Crypto sentiment was lifted by the Mt. Gox Trustee’s decision to extend the repayment deadline by one year to October 31, 2025.
ATMs from fronts to mids are up, but Spot-Vol correlation remains largely apathetic. The session saw mixed flows, with calls bought and sold. The 28 Mar 25 45k/110k Strangle was sold, with vols at 62% and 59%.
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