Crypto Narratives

@cryptonarratives1

Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/

Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain

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Crypto Narratives (English)

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Crypto Narratives

14 Jan, 12:10

Almost all the top performers of the day outside of the top 100 are AI agent/infra coins.

The market has shown its hand repeatedly. There will be rotations inside of this narrative but I am not going to fade it or try to ‘call a top and move on to the next thing’.

Crypto Narratives

14 Jan, 11:00

We definitely did not have an extinction event similar to Aug 5 but that sub $90k wick looks like a good bottom

But we already bounced so hard that it's kinda useless to reach this conclusion now if you did not position quickly around the $90k-$92k region yesterday

I would not get too bulled up with leverage longs at this current price ($96.7k) but you're probably fine if you're in from much lower

Crypto Narratives

14 Jan, 10:45

Good strategy to maximize profits + minimize drawdowns from ptf ATH + fight FOMO :

- Hold a sizable spot position in $BTC

- The remaining in stables. Buy on-chain low caps with 10x-100x potential

- Position aggressively on the strongest alts when a large market dip happens

Crypto Narratives

14 Jan, 00:38

Hilarious daily candles on BTC

Talk about an uncertain market

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 18:34

Everyone becomes a BTC maxi in the end

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 18:09

Whenever you want to short $BTC, short $ETH instead

It tends to work well

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 14:23

Be careful though because the last time this happened, it did not end well

(Pigeon bought it during the market dip which impacted its moves, it was very strong on the bounce but then completely died)

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 14:16

FARTCOIN acting as Schelling point for the altcoin to punt when dip buying

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 10:52

The good thing about that is that at least you get a proper signal that the dump is close to being over with the giga liquidation candle

Crypto Narratives

13 Jan, 10:34

It feels like pre-Aug 5 all over again

Crypto Narratives

12 Jan, 19:38

There are currently $100bn worth of $XRP tokens still to be unlocked lmao

The fact that this number is so monstrous mostly proves that it's irrelevant though (in the sense that this supply won't hit the market)

Crypto Narratives

12 Jan, 12:20

$VIRTUAL and $AI16Z became blue-chips and then immediately went down -50%

Crypto Narratives

12 Jan, 12:01

This $WOULD memecoin went from $1M to $400M mcap and I don't know a single soul that holds it

Crypto Narratives

11 Jan, 11:22

While CEX trading is aids right now, some on-chain AI opportunities still exist :

$PIPPIN : $30M -> $300M in 2 days
$AVB : $14M -> $70M

The coins that have had a first run, dumped, but then found a footing on the chart, while having a legit team building, are the best bets rn

Crypto Narratives

10 Jan, 18:10

So one thing that I've learned over the past months is that you should not short $SUI or $XRP when the market is dipping and you're looking for shorts

These two could feel safe because of their large valuations, but they just keep being strong over and over again

Crypto Narratives

10 Jan, 17:12

The $SPX making lower lows without $BTC doing the same is quite remarkable

Crypto Narratives

10 Jan, 01:16

The Four Horsemen of Manipulation

$AGLD
$UXLINK
$MOCA
$STMX

These scam moves happen exactly after daily open

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 23:01

I think the best r/r trades you can take right now is finding the sub $50M mcap AI coins that have a legit shot at going up 10x or more

Lev trading CEX coins is orders of magnitude harder than this

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 21:59

The current price action reminds me of the early September bottom :

1 - vertical move up
2 - price is flat and immediately rejected on breakout attempt
3 - drifts down before immediately rugging
4 - bleeds down
5 - final liquidation candle to mark the bottom ?

Obviously that's just me fractaling two different situations, but this would make sense

A lot of people seem ready to buy a sub 90k dip though

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 18:19

The problem we face right now is that the market is clearly weak and this situation could end in a nasty wick to mark the bottom.

If you are a bull for Q1 (I am), your job is to make sure that you definitely could not be wiped out if this happens.

So far we've mostly seen bleeding but not a real cascade that would be a clear signal to step in for the people in cash.

Of course this could obviously not happen too, but my message is more about making sure that you can't die if we flush.

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 17:35

$PEPE / $WIF pair

PEPE took the spot for best candidate (by far) as 2nd largest meme (ie flip SHIB)

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 17:27

The $MOG / $POPCAT pair is up +200% in two months

Coinbase listing effect or stronger hands on Ethereum ?

I think the lower dilution in Eth memes is a strong advantage over Solana memes

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 13:25

How to find conviction in $WIF now that captain blockgraze left the ship ?

At least there's a line not too far

Crypto Narratives

09 Jan, 09:42

Today's top performers are such a random list of shit

Crypto Narratives

08 Jan, 14:32

Most coins are showing the same behaviour :

Been trading almost flat from December 20 to NYE, then pumped for a few days and are now back in the same range.

If you were bullish a week ago, you should ask yourself if there is a dramatic change that justifies switching your bias.

My personal answer is that there was no significant change. (But I tend to have a perpetual bulltard bias)

Crypto Narratives

08 Jan, 12:18

If we're 8 days into 2025 and alt season has not begun... then it means that the cycle topped.

There is NO other option than these two.

(According to CT)

Crypto Narratives

07 Jan, 17:55

This weakness comes purely from tradfi, it is not crypto specific

Crypto Narratives

07 Jan, 11:00

Top performing category since mid-December (if we exclude AI agents ofc) is ... dino coins

And that is starting from way after their late Nov/early Dec giga pump

Crypto Narratives

07 Jan, 11:00

You can buy the AstroFolio index on perps on Ox.fun

It's down roughly -80% and I think it's a good punt here

The capital efficiency offered by OXfun is very useful, you don't have to lock your spot reserves and you can ape a ton of small cap memes

Crypto Narratives

06 Jan, 18:27

Alt season, but only for $BTC

Crypto Narratives

06 Jan, 15:06

You love to see it

Crypto Narratives

06 Jan, 14:48

Everyone is back at his desk now

... and buying $BTC ?

Monday NYO price action can be scammy, I am waiting to see how the CB premium/discount develops

So far it's looking good with a compression of the discount to zero

Crypto Narratives

06 Jan, 13:10

Saylor BTC purchases :

12/09 : 21550
12/16 : 15350
12/23 : 5262
12/30 : 2138
01/06 : 1070

Crypto Narratives

05 Jan, 23:28

$3bn FDV, listed on Bybit spot, up 7x in December and yet you have never heard about it :

$SUPRA

Crypto Narratives

05 Jan, 22:23

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/december-recap-narratives-best-performers-ba0

Crypto Narratives

05 Jan, 10:32

The main AI agent related coins have been underperforming since their top 3 days ago

If you believe this narrative remains hot, then you can accumulate them during their dip right now, especially if you've been sidelined so far

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 23:52

The destination for almost all coins, whether shitcoins or 'tech/utility' coins, is the same : trending towards zero.

Most people on CT know it, and that's why we've embraced memecoins so much in 2024. There was no need to hide behind some BS 'future of France' story.

But it turns out people still really like to have a grand vision for what they are investing in, which resulted in the AI agent narrative having so much success. It was something new and very differentiated from another DeFi protocol or another alt L1, and it enabled people to dream big. Massive hit.

Play the game, make profit, just don't fool yourself into thinking that these coins are special, they are once again memecoins with some tech narrative on top. Most will go to zero, and you are playing a game of musical chair. Hopefully, the music keeps playing for several months.

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 22:05

Each cycle $BTC reaches much higher valuations than the previous one, but the 'ceiling' for most coins from one cycle to the other will always be around $100bn FDV

This target does not really increase with BTC price

$ETH got rid of that ceiling too but is in limbo valuation-wise, because it rapidly gets hard to justify trading above $100bn if you are not a SoV and don't have significant enough cash flows

I think $SOL has also reached the status of being a 'major' during this cycle and this is why it still has room to grow despite its size

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 19:04

Anyone still interested in $TRUMP ?

Down -90% from its top, sold the election news very hard but looks bottomed and ready for a breakout

Maybe a long until the inauguration ?

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 13:55

Ethena and Usual stablecoin growth is pretty impressive when you know how Aave has been struggling

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 13:51

Aave is a $20bn TVL blue-chip DeFi protocol on Ethereum but its $GHO stablecoin is still stalling at $150M market cap after 1 year and a half from launch lol

This shows how hard it is to get a stablecoin to scale

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 11:43

$XION got the memo

Crypto Narratives

04 Jan, 11:41

$SUI flipped $ADA in FDV and is now the 7th largest crypto in terms of fully diluted valuation

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 17:38

You can currently get 26% APR on Angle Protocol by simply depositing $USDa in the savings product in one-click

No lock-up, same liquidity as USDC, and you can do it on L2s (Base, Arbitrum, etc) as well as on mainnet.

Incredibly overlooked stablecoin yield opportunity while Ethena $USDe currently yields 10%

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 17:21

Time and time again, I've been amazed by the fact that the largest coins in a narrative are able to outperform smaller similar coins despite needing 'more money to be pumped'.

Few examples that come to my mind :

$PEPE - was close to WIF / FLOKI / BONK in market cap at some point, now way ahed

$XRP - a gigantic dino coin in valuation, but also one of the best performers during the dino run in late November

#VIRTUAL - it remained one of the best coins to buy in the AI agent narrative even at $1bn mcap, and went to $5bn

$SUI - Massively outperformed most alt L1s since August despite being much larger now

Pareto principle

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 17:08

Refraining myself from top blasting new coins because I am allocated enough

Crazy how everything becomes suddenly an attractive buy after a few green candles activated some neurons

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 13:53

Recap of the last 10 days in crypto :

- $BTC mostly chopped and made local bottom at $91.5k. Typical holiday price action

- AI agent meta completely dominated mindshare : $VIRTUAL 2X'd to $5bn MC in 10 days. $AI16Z : $1bn -> $2.5bn. Other top coins include $ZEREBRO ($800M top), $AIXBT ($600M), $GRIFFAIN ($470M), $ARC ($400M).

- $FARTCOIN just reached $1.5bn.

- Memecoins have been consolidating for 10 days after capitulation. Time to shine again ? Murad memecoins are the hottest ones right now : $SPX flipped $1bn and $GIGA is at ATH too. $PEPE got strength from the Kekius Maximus story too.

- Dino coins are among the best-performing categories YTD again : $XRP $XLM $ADA $HBAR

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 13:25

Two new coins that look bottomed :

$VANA
$XION

Good r/r

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 13:20

$SPX literally went down in November during the raging bull period, and is now in price discovery while $BTC is chopping below $100k

Pristine uncorrelated asset 🙏

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 11:24

Memes in price discovery :

$SPX
$GIGA
#FARTCOIN

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 01:38

Study Bonk guy.

Study the insanity required to make millions in uPnL and roundtrip 5 times in a row.

Crypto Narratives

03 Jan, 01:38

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-january-2

Crypto Narratives

02 Jan, 17:57

Nice

$ATA

Crypto Narratives

02 Jan, 15:41

I had to check back in the group chat history, it's absolutely hilarious. Some people are actually god-tier at doing exactly the wrong thing every time.

January 10, 2024 : he did not have crypto anymore because he had lost too much in last cycle (despite him being told to buy between 20k and 30k during most of 2023)

Jan 11, 2024 : he asked if it was still the time to buy BTC

Feb 29, 2024 : he planned to switch some of his trad investments into crypto, was wondering if he should buy mostly ETH because BTC was already too high

March 7, 2024 : he said he would be fully allocated in 2 weeks, but few hours later he said that he actually changed his strategy, bought everything and put more than he planned initially but with the goal of 'selling earlier than most'

March 11, 2024 : he asked what people in the groupchat were thinking about the 5x leverage feature on Binance, so that you could get in ETH at $4k and sell at $6k-7k but with 5x leverage...

One day later was $ETH pico-top for the year 😭

Crypto Narratives

02 Jan, 14:54

Discount still trending down

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 22:48

$GOAT went from 0 to almost $1bn mcap in less than 2 weeks

This was a great signal that the market was extremely horny to buy coins in that new 'AI agent' category

But it did not mean that GOAT was necessarily the play - VIRTUAL was trading at $250M mcap when GOAT reached its first $900M top, and AI16Z was not launched yet.

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 18:32

The market has elected $MORPHO as a winner

It tends to retrace a lot of its pumps brutally though

Looking to buy dips on it

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 13:31

$ATA looks strong

It seems to benefit from the AI narrative, and does have negative funding

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 13:27

The hottest on-chain coins with large volume usually exhibit a sharp V-shape recovery after their first big drawdown

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 12:35

$KEKIUS will obviously be a great short WHEN he switches his pfp again if you are reacting fast enough (shorting before that would be a useless headache). One of the only places where you can short it is on Ox.fun

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 12:23

$KEKIUS is a much better meme than $DMAGA was, but be careful at $400m mcap and with Elon likely to change PFP soon again

(Spoiler : he does not give a single f about your memecoin and him going back to his usual pfp is guaranteed)

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 12:09

Great support zone on $FWOG for a bounce here

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 11:36

$GOAT had a final capitulation after this tweet but seems to have clearly bottomed and has found strength again now.

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 11:25

Haters will be very happy to mock MSTR and the moment they will be the most vocal about it will be a great time to buy MSTR

(I don't trade stocks so I won't buy tho, and buying BTC is obviously way less risky)

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 11:06

MSTR premium to NAV is now down to 1.7x, the lowest it's been since May 2024.

It will be interesting to see how low this settles at.

The lower the premium, the more interesting it gets to buy $MSTR instead of $BTC if you think the cycle has not topped

Crypto Narratives

01 Jan, 01:39

Happy new year, frens !

Crypto Narratives

31 Dec, 19:11

Disrespect spotted in the daily chart of a $1.5bn FDV asset listed on Coinbase

Crypto Narratives

31 Dec, 12:24

I am buying $FUEL now that it's listed on Bybit perps

I think it's a very overlooked L2 play

Adding on any dip

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 22:24

Lol

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 22:23

It's an AI agent world

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 21:57

Fully deployed right now

I will lever up if we get sub $90k but I'd prefer not to see it

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 15:58

Memes relative strength noticeable on the spaghetti chart

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 15:06

Coinbase discount above $250 wow

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 13:06

$200M announced 😬

Not surprising given the CB discount all week, but it also looks like we've not been in the blACkOut pEriOD yet

https://x.com/saylor/status/1873716433919803868

Crypto Narratives

30 Dec, 12:53

Hopefully Saylor announces that they bought dust like $300M worth of $BTC

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 19:12

You're laughing. XRP just flipped SOL and you're laughing.

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 13:49

November in crypto :

- Trump victory, new $BTC ATH above $74k during the election night
- $DOGE pumps from $25bn to $70bn mcap
- Onchain D.O.G.E. goes from $40M to $500M MC
- $SUI new ATH at almost $40bn FDV
- Strength on SOL mid caps in the week following the election : $DRIFT $RAY $KMNO $CLOUD
- Meme trifecta $GOAT $NEIRO #MOODENG had huge strength in the first half of November and then weakness
- $PNUT listed on Binance goes from $100M to $400M to $2.4bn MC after an Elon tweet
- $ACT is listed on Binance and goes from $20M to $800M MC
- $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI get listed on Coinbase, $PEPE reaches a new market cap ATH of almost $11bn
- $BTC to $99.7k in 2 weeks
- $BONK pumps by +170%, reaches new ATH
- Dino coins had a gigantic run : $XRP $ADA $XLM $HBAR $ALGO aggregate market cap went from $45bn to $170bn (+280%). Best performers of the month by far
- Consistent CEX memes weakness during the 2nd half of November
- On-chain AI agents/memes pumped hard : $AI16Z $ZEREBRO $FARTCOIN $VVAIFU $BULLY
- $VIRTUAL pumped 6x over the month, becoming the leader of the AI agent narrative
- DeSci narrative : RIF URO RSC VITA GENOME
- $THE pumps 20x after its Binance listing
- $HYPE gets airdropped, goes linearly from $3bn to $10bn FDV and becomes one of the largest airdrops ever.

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 12:55

Very important :

Consolidation is a form of pullback in a bull market.

You don't want to buy coins that give you perfect retests, you want to focus on coins that are so strong that they look flat even when the market dumps

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 12:36

This behaviour happens a lot on LTF

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 12:35

Dino coins are exactly that

Not only do they pump massively but they also don't allow other coins to move up at the same time.

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 10:45

$HBAR market cap made a new ATH at almost $8bn. Wtf

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 10:28

If you consider that $HYPE should be valued as a perp DEX, it seems overvalued, but if you consider that it should be valued as an alt L1, it seems undervalued.

Pick your side.

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 00:50

Let's hope this is the signal to rotate into $DOGE

We are seeing early signs of that rn

Crypto Narratives

01 Dec, 00:05

The $XRP trendline is respected to the T

Crypto Narratives

30 Nov, 14:56

$SOL is getting destroyed vs the altcoin market

What other chart is looking exactly like that ?

-> $BTC / OTHERS

SOL might act as some form of levered BTC

Crypto Narratives

30 Nov, 13:09

7-day performance, a week after this tweet :

$XRP : +23%
$XLM : +21%
$HBAR : +10%
$ALGO : +50%

$PEPE : -6%
$WIF : -7%
$DOGE : -10%
$POPCAT : -15%

Crypto Narratives

30 Nov, 12:40

$FTM again ?

Crypto Narratives

30 Nov, 12:37

Last week, we pumped 2021 alt L1s after dinos

Crypto Narratives

30 Nov, 00:05

Fun fact, the dino outperformance begins each week on Thursday at the same time, like clockwork.

Black magic in play ?

Crypto Narratives

29 Nov, 23:42

Who would have predicted in early November :

1/ That dino coins would be the top performers ?

2/ And by such a large margin ?

We're talking about coins that had gigantic valuations even before that.

That's legit one of the most unbelievable sectoral outperformance I've ever witnessed in crypto 💀

Crypto Narratives

29 Nov, 19:11

In March 2021, $CHZ pumped literally 30X in one month, going from a $130M to a $4bn market cap.

(And GCR shorted the top.)

Crypto Narratives

29 Nov, 13:43

This chart shows something you can notice on low timeframes :

The dino coins (XRP ADA XLM) are taking a lot of liquidity away from the other altcoins.

When the dinos pump, the other altcoins dump, and when the dinos dump, the other altcoins can pump.

Crypto Narratives

29 Nov, 11:31

CEX memes have been incredibly painful to hold since mid-November because they have underperformed massively, but that seems to be stabilizing now

The chart is (DOGE*WIF*BONK*PEPE*GOAT*MOODENG*NEIRO)^(1/7)/OTHERS

Crypto Narratives

28 Nov, 17:34

Loss aversion is a bitch and can destroy your performance.

Here's an advice to avoid it :

Try to be HAPPY about cutting a trade in losses at your invalidation because it means you are following the process that will make you profitable.

Crypto Narratives

27 Nov, 23:57

$OX went up 3x since that day, and still feels quite cheap.

"Picks and shovels" utility play for memecoins.

Crypto Narratives

24 Nov, 10:43

$XLM reached a new market cap ATH at $19bn.

What the absolute f-ing f is this sorcery ?

Crypto Narratives

24 Nov, 01:18

First, we pumped 2017 coins : $XRP $ADA $XLM

Then we've seen some strength rotating into 2021 coins : $DOT $AVAX $FTM

What's next ?

Class of 2023-2024 coins, get ready.

Crypto Narratives

22 Nov, 18:53

7-day performance :

$XRP : +66%
$ADA : +46%
$HBAR : +104%
$XLM : +146%

$PEPE : -8%
$WIF : -17%
$POPCAT : -13%

In which alternative reality did I end up ?

Crypto Narratives

22 Nov, 13:42

$OP and $ARB pump and then the market immediately retraces

Crypto Narratives

22 Nov, 11:00

It's crazy how many new memecoins have been pumped to more than $300M mcap recently :

$PNUT - $2.4bn MC at the top
$GOAT - $1.3bn
$ACT - $900M
#MOODENG - $700M
$GIGA - $700M
$FWOG - $700M
#ZEREBRO - $600M
#CHILLGUY - $600M
#AI16Z - $550M
$DOGE - $480M
#FARTCOIN - $450M
$BAN - $350M
$BARSIK - $350M
$LUCE - $320M
$FRED - $300M

Crypto Narratives

21 Nov, 11:24

Too much competition for attention, too large mcap, giga-pumped

Crypto Narratives

21 Nov, 10:20

Since 2020, the behaviour of $XRP has always been the same :

Vertical pumps followed by distribution and months of bleeding

In November 2020, when $BTC was getting close to its previous ATH of $20k, XRPBTC had one of these squeezes which was followed by a large dump.

In terms of cyclicality, we are in a very similar situation 4 years later.

With $110bn FDV, $XRP is one of my main hedge shorts, despite the fact that most large dino coins have been by far the best performers of the past 10 days.

The bull case for XRP is that with Trump victory, the SEC overhang has disappeared, and on top of that, Ripple has been one of the largest crypto donators to Trump. This means that we could have an XRP ETF, or that the team might be comfortable resorting to shady shenanigans to pump the price again.

But at this valuation and given the usual price action of XRP, I tend to think that the bull case has largely materialized already in price, and it won't be able to push much higher.

Crypto Narratives

20 Nov, 18:08

High beta on the downside too…

Crypto Narratives

20 Nov, 17:23

Last few days :

- $BTC UP
- CEX memecoins DOWN
- Dino coin UP

Crypto Narratives

20 Nov, 16:22

$NEIRO CTO

Crypto Narratives

20 Nov, 12:50

Lose this level...

$PNUT

Crypto Narratives

20 Nov, 10:27

During last cycle, $AXS market cap went from $200M to $10bn in 5 months.

Its FDV was $43bn at the top.

Crypto Narratives

19 Nov, 17:05

Yup, this definitely reminds me of the November 2023 price action on $BTC

Choppy but with higher lows after a large move up

Crypto Narratives

19 Nov, 16:22

$LTC was the 3rd largest coin on Jan 3, 2021.

Crazy. Now it's ranked 22nd.

$XRP, $ADA, $BNB, were in the top 10 back then and are still standing there now.

Crypto Narratives

18 Nov, 17:58

$XRP $ADA -> $XLM $HBAR -> $XTZ $IOTA $ZRX $ENJ

We are digging deeper and deeper

Crypto Narratives

18 Nov, 16:33

HBAR is 30% away from its market cap ATH

Crypto Narratives

18 Nov, 16:29

$HBAR trading like it's gonna be the 3rd crypto ETF approved after $BTC and $ETH lmao

Crypto Narratives

17 Nov, 17:08

Among all mid cap memecoins, $RETARDIO is the best r/r to me at $170M

This looks like a guaranteed 3X to 5X from here, if not way more.

Crypto Narratives

17 Nov, 14:48

Do you know about a coin called Telcoin (ticker $TEL) ? Maybe not. And yet, its market cap went from $10M to $3bn (300x) in 5 months during previous cycle.

Crypto Narratives

16 Nov, 20:41

Alex Becker has never been interested in memecoins until now.

He's been mostly focusing on gaming coins since late 2021, and then started talking about AI coins in 2023.

Now he's getting into memes.

Memecoins will absolutely dominate this cycle.

https://x.com/ZssBecker/status/1857867485527035929

Crypto Narratives

16 Nov, 13:20

Seeing $XRP $ADA and $DOGE add about $75bn of market cap in aggregate in two weeks is absolutely great

This is confirmation that we are going to see insanity in the crypto market again

That's how generational wealth gets build (and lost)

Time to lock in

Crypto Narratives

16 Nov, 11:39

Long $SEI / short $SUI should go up

(But most people are much better off taking naked longs in a bull run)

Crypto Narratives

16 Nov, 10:22

CT tried to frontrun retail buying $WIF but it turns out they still want the same overvalued crap as in previous cycles, like $XRP and $ADA 🤣

Crypto Narratives

16 Nov, 00:04

Crypto narratives since Trump victory :

- $BTC broke ATH on election night, then reached $93K in a week. Bull run.

- $DOGE has been the main election trade. Up $30bn mcap in a week, up almost 4x in October.

- On CEX, outside memes, the retail dino coins have been the top performers : $XRP (+70%) and $ADA (2x) especially

- $PEPE $WIF and $FLOKI got listed on Binance. Large cap memes are among the best performers. $PEPE up 3x, $BONK +150%.

- The memecoin trifecta has been extremely strong since the elections too : $GOAT $NEIRO #Moodeng

- $PNUT went from $100M to $2.4bn at the top after Binance listing + Elon tweet about Peanut

- $SUI reached a new ATH at $36bn FDV

- $GRASS is the shiny new coin on CEX that pumped from $0.7 to $4 at its top

- AI coins are moving with Nvidia earnings as catalyst : $NEAR $RNDR

- Solana mid caps have had a very strong window of outperformance : $RAY $DRIFT $PRCL $ORCA $KMNO

- All the on-chain AI memes have been repriced higher after $ACT listing on Binance

- Base season coming ? $DEGEN up 3x in a week. #VIRTUALS $BRETT #MIGGLES $KEYCAT running too.

Crypto Narratives

15 Nov, 20:13

Recap of all the crypto narratives since Trump victory :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-november-15

Crypto Narratives

15 Nov, 20:12

$PEPE daily volume on Coinbase : $200M

$WIF daily volume on Coinbase : $20M

Crypto Narratives

14 Nov, 20:32

I can understand why people are longing $XRP, but it's still among my favorite hedge shorts.

At $80bn FDV, this is heavy as fuck

Crypto Narratives

14 Nov, 10:16

1. $ACT pumps
2. $ACT flips $GOAT for a few minutes
3. $GOAT pumps

This played out exactly as expected

Crypto Narratives

14 Nov, 10:06

This is what I see when I rank my watchlist of all cat coins by launch date to check which ones were launched close to $POPCAT

ELGATO is probably the one I like the most

Crypto Narratives

14 Nov, 01:35

Given the strength in some of the new memes as well as the market caps they are able to reach in a few days, some old ETH memes now feel extremely cheap

$JOE - $55M Mcap
$LMEOW - $55M Mcap
$KEKEC - $35M Mcap

Crypto Narratives

13 Nov, 23:55

If your altcoin looks like this vs $BTC, you should probably consider pivoting to something else

Crypto Narratives

13 Nov, 23:40

Read this, now

Learn how to dream again.

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/a-compilation-of-insane-pumps-that

Crypto Narratives

13 Nov, 17:36

It's still very hard to find interest in anything else than majors and memecoins right now

Crypto Narratives

13 Nov, 12:56

Long $ACT until the ACT/GOAT ratio is worth 1, then rotate into $GOAT ?

Or long both.

I like GOAT more and think the r/r is much better on GOAT.

ACT is just the Binance cartel play that also benefitted from PNUT pumping as they were listed simultaneously... so far it has worked well if you did just blindly long after the listing.

Crypto Narratives

13 Nov, 00:18

$CAT is due for a repricing imo

The chart is showing CAT/altcoins

What I like about this coin is that it's only $250M mcap so the r/r is good in terms of upside (=>$1bn) vs downside.

Which means you can get a similar PnL in $ terms than on a larger memecoin but with lower size.

CAT is also a bag of Bonk Guy who is in a hot streak again with BONK moving...

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 21:20

Be very careful when you want to crank up the risk only because you've seen that someone on CT has an insane PnL with a leverage trade.

Most likely you will get rekt trying to do the same, especially if you don't have evidence that you have such a similar edge

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 13:36

$EIGEN, maybe the most hyped project of 2024, just keeps underperforming the altcoin market

Blacklisted coin for me on perps

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 13:33

The strength of $SAGA was a psyop imo, but the mean reversion trade was very hard to take because of how overextended this move up was

(Anyway, it's not the time for that kind of pair trading anymore when some coins are up +20% in a day)

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 12:00

Bull market mascot, still under $200M Mcap, still undervalued

I am long $MUMU

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 11:48

Notice how that good old DOGE is able to compete with the best rookies

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 11:21

It's especially useful during the dips because they have what it takes to pump the strongest => Schelling points (new hot coins) + high beta

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 11:18

If in doubt, just blindly long all the hot memecoins during the flushes

$NEIRO
$GOAT
#MOODENG
$ACT
$PNUT

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 09:53

This is the best thing that could have happened for the memecoin sector

$DOGE up 4X in a month

The rotation into other memecoins will be BIBLICAL

Crypto Narratives

12 Nov, 00:51

$WLD market cap is +5% away from its ATH

$WLD price is +344% from its ATH

Lol

Crypto Narratives

11 Nov, 23:21

Sorry, what's going on ??

Crypto Narratives

11 Nov, 13:21

Binance randomly decides to list a $20M mcap shitter and suddenly the trifecta is the weakest category

Criminal listings tbh

Crypto Narratives

10 Nov, 23:28

The memecoin trifecta has the strongest bounce after this dump

#MOODENG
$GOAT
$NEIRO

Crypto Narratives

10 Nov, 19:31

Make sure you don't die because you're over-levered, liquidation cascades always happen in bull runs

It especially happens when you just kept opening new positions or adding because it keeps working even if deep down you know that you are taking too much risk

Crypto Narratives

10 Nov, 15:44

It's 'long more coins than you can manage' season

Crypto Narratives

10 Nov, 12:03

$ADA over altcoins since 2023

It's one of my favorite targets for hedge shorts

Crypto Narratives

10 Nov, 10:54

$SUI FDV is around $30bn right now

The FDV ceiling for the hottest L1s of a cycle is usually around $100bn

Your upside in the best case scenario on $SUI is currently about 3x

You can momentum trade it, but I would find it very hard to "invest" in it right now

Crypto Narratives

09 Nov, 20:13

And here they are, ranked by FDVs :

Crypto Narratives

04 Nov, 19:05

The key focus if you want to be profitable on perps is to minimize your losses :

- Don't take trades without an invalidation
- Don't move your invalidation 3 times because of loss aversion
- Don't short coins that are too small without a very clear SL
- Size down on low conviction trades (or avoid them outright)
- Don't size up on a trade you're taking on an impulse because you got emotional by looking at the 1m chart too long
- Don't size up after a loss with a 'make it all back' mindset

These rules are extremely important and most of your losses will be related to one of these.

Crypto Narratives

04 Nov, 12:33

Here's an example I used in my recent article to illustrate how buying old memecoins can offer a great r/r compared to competing on new launches

$BONGO is an outlier of course, but it went up literally 200X

Crypto Narratives

04 Nov, 00:56

Recap of the past 10 days in crypto :

- $BTC followed Trump odds moves and topped at $73.5k on October 29 before pulling back. All eyes on the upcoming elections now

- BTC.D reached new cycle highs at 60.5%. $ETH and altcoins are getting crushed vs BTC

- $GOAT topped at $900M mcap after Binance and Bybit perp listings. Down -45% from top now, and the whole AI meme narrative cooled down.

- The most noticeable moves were in memecoins : $POPCAT, $GIGA, and $FWOG all reached new ATH prices.

- Some flavor-of-the-week memecoins went to $100M MC : $PNUT and $LUCE

- ETH ecosystem struggling : ETHBTC down, $EIGEN new lows, $SCR down only

- $GRASS is a newly launched coin in depin/AI, pumped 3x right after its listing

Crypto Narratives

03 Nov, 23:41

New recap :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-november-3

Crypto Narratives

03 Nov, 13:51

There is a chart that is going up only

Crypto Narratives

02 Nov, 18:02

Great podcast episode with Galois Capital as a guest, I recommend it.

He’s a sharp trader, I would love to see him appear on more podcasts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pFhS1Mkvk0

Crypto Narratives

02 Nov, 16:46

This has been working very well for a month, almost to a T

Long $POPCAT in dips is usually rewarded

Crypto Narratives

02 Nov, 13:31

Bullish ? Bearish ? Chop-ish ?

Just long BTC.D

Crypto Narratives

02 Nov, 00:04

I wrote a new article on Substack about my favorite strategy for on-chain trading.

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/my-favorite-strategy-to-maximize

Crypto Narratives

31 Oct, 19:52

ETHBTC pump was a good signal once again

Crypto Narratives

31 Oct, 19:25

One of the most consistent trend of the last few months has been the downward repricing of L2 tokens

$ARB
$OP
$POL
$STRK
$ZK
$BLAST
$TAIKO
$SCR

Crypto Narratives

31 Oct, 13:53

Not too bad

$APE is down -35% from there

Crypto Narratives

31 Oct, 12:12

$MUMU looks good

It's the type of memecoin where you can safely buy dips on, and expect good upside wrt risk too

Crypto Narratives

31 Oct, 09:22

I usually run several longs and shorts simultaneously, but most of my recent PnL on perps comes from an overall synthetic exposure to BTC.D

- Long $BTC (largest position of the book by far)
- Long select altcoins you like
- Short a large basket of altcoins primed for underperformance

This has worked very well lately

It probably continues to work well, because I don't think a great rotation to altcoins happens before BTC breaks out properly and finds a new ATH

Crypto Narratives

30 Oct, 18:40

One of the worst things (for holders) about that $ETH underperformance is that it has been absolutely relentless over more than 2 years

And you can't even find a fractal that matches late 2020 because ETHBTC is at the lows right now, while last cycle it bottomed in September 2019 and then only made higher lows

Crypto Narratives

30 Oct, 10:12

$SNX / altcoins

Not looking good

Crypto Narratives

29 Oct, 10:13

7-day top performers among large caps :

$POPCAT : +23%
$RUNE : +17%
$DOGE : +15%
$JUP : +10%
$PYTH : +10%
$SOL : +10%
$BTC : +6%

Crypto Narratives

28 Oct, 15:45

Goblinarinos have the potential to become one of the cults CT talks about so much, and you can now mint them for 0.02 ETH.

Bull case : 100X
Bear case : you lose 0.02 ETH for each funny Gob you mint

Minting a Gob looks like a good r/r to me

(Link to the thread)

Crypto Narratives

28 Oct, 12:51

Price up : This might become huge, next big thing, true cult vibes

Price down : Man that was a such a stupid idea we believed in

Crypto Narratives

28 Oct, 11:25

Ouch

$MATIC has been nothing but pain for holders over the last 2 years

Crypto Narratives

28 Oct, 10:53

The lottery ticket analogy makes a lot of sense to get the gist of memecoin trading, but in the end, EV is obviously dependent on your strategy and picks, you can't apply the exact same framework to all memecoins at all stages of their lifetime

Crypto Narratives

28 Oct, 10:51

You can dramatically improve your R/R in memecoins if you compete in the right field ie buying the ones that are few months old, bottoming, while still having mindshare

Buying one of the 20k new daily pumpfun tokens right after they were launched is much more risky

Not all memecoins are equal, understanding that is very important for maximizing EV

Crypto Narratives

27 Oct, 12:32

Less than a month of 'on-chain mindshare history', ranked chronologically :

NEIROCTO SPX APU SIGMA MINI USA BITCOIN GOAT MARIE MEDUSA KLAUS D.O.G.E. FLOYDAI LUNA FARTCOIN GNON ACT EREBUS CLAUDIUS SHOGGOTH SLOP KIRI FUN WMM EACC SHAR FLAVIA ZENO XVI FARTCOIN GOAT MEMESAI FOREST MOODENG DEGENAI AI16Z BAN

Crypto Narratives

26 Oct, 13:42

Very dangerous to short a news-based God candle on a $150M memecoin, especially when the news is a Binance listing

$MOODENG

Crypto Narratives

25 Oct, 15:35

List of the largest recent AI memecoins with their drawdown and market cap top (2nd list) :

$GOAT : -27%
#FARTCOIN : -36%
$LUNA : -20%
$GNON : -80%
$FOREST : -20%
$ACT : -66%
#SHOGGOTH : -60%
#MEMESAI : -63%
$CATGF : -55%
$SHEGEN : -65%
#PROJECT89 : -60%
$E/ACC : -62%
$FLAVIA : -90%
$MEDUSA : -80%
$SLOP : -82%
$OMEGA : -77%
$OPUS : -55%
$XVI : -76%
$JANET : -82%
$YOUSIM : -75%
$KIRI : -95%
$HORNY : -80%
#CLAUDIUS : -90%
$WOTF : -96%

$GOAT : $900M
#FARTCOIN : $80M
$LUNA : $85M
$GNON : $190M
$FOREST : $32M
$ACT : $75M
#SHOGGOTH : $45M
#MEMESAI : $30M
$CATGF : $20M
$SHEGEN : $26M
#PROJECT89 : $22M
$E/ACC : $22M
$FLAVIA : $70M
$MEDUSA : $30M
$SLOP : $50M
$OMEGA : $23M
$OPUS : $9M
$XVI : $9M
$JANET : $18M
$YOUSIM : $11M
$KIRI : $20M
$HORNY : $6M
#CLAUDIUS : $13M
$WOTF : $14M

Crypto Narratives

25 Oct, 14:44

Whether you were positioned in the recent AI meta or not, and whether you made money off of it or not, what is relevant is that the market has shown its hands :

There is HUGE appetite in buying coins from that meta, which is in some way just a confirmation that memes and AI are the 2 strongest narratives of this cycle.

Animal coins won't die, Murad type cult coins won't die, but now you also know that AI memecoins will be part of the picture.

Crypto Narratives

24 Oct, 10:34

Did anyone else notice this ?

The exact same thing happens everyday at 8:30 CET on $BTC

Crypto Narratives

24 Oct, 09:33

Be careful each time ETHBTC pumps

Depending on the context, it can suggest that an uptrend is getting exhausted

Crypto Narratives

23 Oct, 13:38

I am not expecting huge moves on $BTC and the CEX altcoins before the elections

I don't see a good r/r in either long or short in the very short-term

Don't get lost in ze chop on perps

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 20:59

They are literally talking about undoing that rebranding now 😆

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 13:42

Recap of the past 10 days in crypto :

- $BTC went pretty much up only from its $59k bottom to almost $70k, but currently stands at $67k. Trump odds have gone up a lot on Polymarket too, and ETFs bought large quantities of BTC.

- $DOGE has been the main hot thing on CEXes (+30% in a week), it has become a Trump trade because of Elon shilling the Department Of Government Efficacy (D.O.G.E.).

- The main crypto narrative has been on-chain with the rise of $GOAT from 0 to $500M mcap in a week. This sparked a strong trend of AI memecoins such as $GNON #FARTCOIN $ACT $SLOP

- Cat coins have been hot : new ATH for $POPCAT and $MEW, $MOG is close too.

- $SUI topped at at new ATH around $23bn FDV, and since then the previous leading altcoins have been weak : $SUI $SAGA $TAO $SEI

- Murad memecoins have cooled off but remain strong : $SPX topped at $900M mcap, $GIGA at $600M, $APU up 6x from its lows.

- $ENA has been among the strongest VC coins since Eugene/0xENAS shilled it (+42%)

- ApeChain launched 3 days ago and it lead to a massive pump on $APE (+120%)

- Worldcoin hosted a conference, which acted as a catalyst and lead to a strong pump before the event and moderate news selling

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 12:58

The leading altcoins since early September have finally been showing weakness since the $SUI top about a week ago

$SUI
$SAGA
$TAO
$SEI

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 10:24

New memes = Potential to go 100X QUICKLY but high downside risk because they are not Lindy at all so they don't have any floor

Old memes = They will take TIME to pump but the downside risk is much more controlled because they have proven that they won't die and the holder base is much stronger

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 10:24

Are $GOAT and $GNON cults? no - cults are formed and shaped by hodling through terrible PA....what have flocked into $GOAT and $GNON is just mercenary capital. which is fine. number can still go up. just dont delude yourself.

Crypto Narratives

22 Oct, 00:32

Recap of the last 10 days in crypto

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-22

Crypto Narratives

21 Oct, 22:40

Don't get me wrong, I am bullish on the AI meme sector as a whole

But these 2 things are very different things imo :

1/ An AI agent deploys its own token, is able to trade without any human intervention and becomes the first 'millionaire AI'

2/ An AI shitposts on Twitter, some anon creates a pumpfun shitter based on the shitpost, then a human creates a Phantom wallet that 'belongs to the AI' (wut?) and get sent a portion of the supply of that token

How many people are still thinking that 1/ is what happened when it's actually 2/ that happened ?

$GOAT is the first iteration of a whole new AI agent trend, but don't act like there is some philosophical superiority in that token compared to any pumpfun dog/cat coin

Crypto Narratives

21 Oct, 13:47

The trendline has been respected on OTHERS/BTC

Crypto Narratives

21 Oct, 11:50

Short $APE is a mid-curve trade but probably safe if you don't oversize and get ready to add if it goes higher

Crypto Narratives

19 Oct, 23:32

I am seeing a head and shoulders pattern on $POPCAT for the second time

Crypto Narratives

19 Oct, 22:50

Right now, I just don't see a good r/r in buying $GOAT that can maybe 10X in the absolute best case scenario but that has no 'floor' to cap the do.wnside

And then all the other AI coins are derivatives (which is usually less attractive) and none of them seem too compelling to me

As I've written a few times, I am more comfortable buying old memecoins that have gone through several ups and downs and where my downside is much more controlled.

It is less stressful and requires less time.

This does not mean that everybody should do that. The very best onchain shitcoiners print a lot of money by being early on everything, especially when they catch the leaders of the new flavour-of-the-month meta.

Crypto Narratives

19 Oct, 19:42

Other examples :

$PEPE first run
$BONK first run
$SLERF
$SC
$MOTHER
$MOODENG
$MEW
$MANEKI
$WOLF
$BILLY
$NUB

Crypto Narratives

19 Oct, 18:49

Wherever it tops, $GOAT top will probably be its ATH for 6 months+

I can't think of a single memecoin that ran from $1M to $300M+ in its first days of existence without putting in a permatop for awhile

Textbook examples are $BOME and $BODEN

Crypto Narratives

17 Oct, 17:21

Bullish rebranding for $MKR

DegenSpartan_world

Crypto Narratives

17 Oct, 10:46

Largest FDVs ever reached by altcoins in crypto history :

- $FIL and $ICP were extremely low float which explains their insane FDV top

- $XRP was the future of France in 2017 (flipped ETH) and reached $300bn+

- Most L1s have a ceiling around $100bn - $SOL $ADA $BNB $LUNA and they are the most represented category $BCH $DOT $AVAX $TON

- Leaders of categories are visible : $DOGE (memecoins) $UNI (DeFi) $AXS $GALA (gaming) $FLOW (NFTs) $OHM (2021 Ponzi)

- Other very low float coins in the graph include $SRM $WLD $BLOK $OXY

Crypto Narratives

16 Oct, 20:48

Alts are finally showing life against the king $BTC after 2 days of HEAVY underperformance

Crypto Narratives

16 Oct, 14:50

Damn, $BLAST does not stop underperforming

Crypto Narratives

15 Oct, 09:11

"Thanks for playing kiddo"

$REEF

Crypto Narratives

14 Oct, 23:32

Textbook example : $DOLAN

- Several months old
- Down -90% from its top
- Clearly bottoming around $1M mcap

Pocket a 40X

Crypto Narratives

14 Oct, 13:14

Where did the first pump of each large memecoins top ?

$PEPE - topped at $1.6bn mcap during its initial run
$BONK - topped at $1.6bn in December 23
$BOME - topped at $1.8bn
$BRETT - topped at $2bn
$WIF - is the only coin that went up in a straight line to $4.8bn
( $POPCAT and $MOG did not have a proper blow-off top, so it's quite hard to say where they topped)

I don't think $SPX will be able to pull a WIF-like move so I'd expect it to top between here and $1.5bn mcap ?

Crypto Narratives

14 Oct, 11:03

Hopefully $POPCAT frontran $MOG and we can play the same move a 2nd time on it

Crypto Narratives

14 Oct, 10:49

Market cap of the largest cat coins

$POPCAT - $1.37bn
$MOG - $830M
$MEW - $650M
$CAT - $200M
$MICHI - $150M

Crypto Narratives

13 Oct, 23:47

Just a reminder that if you hold "life-changing money" in memecoin uPnL, you should probably cash out half of that to make it *really* life-changing.

Don't be silly

Crypto Narratives

13 Oct, 20:27

Ideally you get another -25% dip on $OX and buy at this time to really minimize downside

Crypto Narratives

13 Oct, 20:18

A coin with fundamentals that is memecoin adjacent and that I think presents a great r/r is $OX from @OXFUNHQ

It feels very very cheap at $25M mcap with a capped downside too (that's important)

Crypto Narratives

12 Oct, 18:39

Few examples of bottom to top multiples you could have found deep in the microcap trenches recently :

$CHRIST : $100k -> $3M (Market Cap)
$BONGO : $100k -> $20M
$QUBY : $200k -> $3M
$ANSOM : $30k -> $600k
$RIZZ : $150k -> $3M
$CHINA : $80k -> $1M
$EGG : $300k -> $4M
$USDCAT : $250k -> $5M
$ELGATO : $300k -> $7M

Of course there is a lot of hindsight bias but these were 10x-20x opportunities that in my opinion were not 'so hard' to catch.
Take each of these examples individually, and you can easily find a decent one-line thesis for each. I could have listed 20 more btw.

Look for all the memes that are several months olds, sort of unique, and seem to be 'bottoming' after a large dump from the ATH => the sweet spot is usually between $100k and $300k market cap, and you will notice that they often stop going down around there, even if some of them might be flat for months.

That's when you have a 10x upside trade below your eyes. Of course, now that all of on-chain memes pump, this 'capped downside risk' opportunity is gone for some time and will only re-appear when they settle down again.

Crypto Narratives

12 Oct, 13:16

Altcoins are doing well vs $BTC these past few days

Trump victory frontrunning by crypto bullievers ?

Crypto Narratives

12 Oct, 10:09

Some characteristics that $SPX had before its giga pump :

- Leading coin in the ETH on-chain game during Q3/Q4 2023
- Never died, it remained in a very wide range for months
- Clear bottom followed by higher lows over several months
- Community and bullievers never disappeared
- Large mindshare despite low MC
- Very unique meme, truly one of its kind
- Cult potential
- Low enough MC to have a credible 10x
- 1 year of distribution of coins, all jeets out

There are an infinite number of memecoins, but very few that have these characteristics.

It is not necessary to have them all but it's the kind of things I am looking at when I am searching high r/r memecoins.

(Instead of buying the n-th derivative of XYZ flavour of the month meme, that has high probability of being worth zero in a few days)

Crypto Narratives

11 Oct, 22:49

Narratives of the past 10 days :

- Choppy price action on $BTC, LTF bottom in at $59k yesterday ?

- Strong CEX coins have remained strong : $SUI is the clear leader. Also $TAO $SAGA $FTM $SUPER outperforming.

- Murad effect in full force on-chain : $SPX did $10M -> $600M mcap, $GIGA pumped to $500M, and $POPCAT made new ATH at $1.45bn. Many on-chain memes on Eth and Sol are up multiples this week.

- $NEIRO CTO pumped 2x to $800M mcap, now $NEIRO ETH wakes up again with a +50M move too.

- $EIGEN token launched, printed the usual airdrop dump pattern

- Trump related coins are up 2x-3x from their bottom : election trade

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