CaucasusWarReport

The rebels are making significant efforts to consolidate control over Homs, a central city that connects to both the coastal region and the border with northern Lebanon. If the rebel groups succeed in establishing dominance over Homs and securing the Syrian-Lebanese border, they could effectively block the primary routes through which Russia’s military logistics and personnel move between the coastal bases and other strategic points in Syria.

This development would create a precarious situation where the Russian military’s only viable avenues for escape would be through air and sea routes.

Additionally, the rebels could open a second front by pushing directly from Hama to the Latakia mountains, challenging Russian and Syrian government positions The rugged terrain of the Latakia mountains would make defense more difficult, forcing Russia to commit more assets to protect this critical area, and potentially limiting their capacity to defend other strategic locations.

As the rebels push west from northern Hama, they could aim to cross the Ghab Plain and penetrate the mountainous terrain, which would grant them a strategically advantageous position. This could allow them to target Russian aviation assets stationed at Hmeimim Airbase.

The mountain range between the rebels and the base offers a natural tactical advantage. From these elevated positions, the rebels could set up observation posts and easily target Russian aircraft on the ground. In addition to MANPADS, the rebels could deploy kamikaze drones, artillery, mortars, or ATGMs to strike Russian jets, helicopters, or ground infrastructure such as runways, fuel storage, and maintenance facilities.

A significant reduction in the base's operational capacity would be a major blow to the Russian military. It would severely hamper their ability to project power, conduct airstrikes, and support Syrian government forces, particularly in the critical western regions of Syria where rebel fortifications are concentrated.

The fourth footage showing an Iranian headquarters of Liwa Fatemiyoun, captured by Syrian rebels at the Scientific Research Center in Aleppo.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Iran and Hezbollah have invested billions to support the Assad regime, with estimates ranging from $20 billion to $30 billion.

Aleppo was one of the most important of these strategic hubs. Iran used the city as both a military stronghold and a logistical center, ensuring supply lines for its forces and allied militias while helping to secure the Assad regime’s hold on the north. Control of Aleppo was vital for projecting Iranian power in the region, especially in maintaining a corridor between Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

However, in a stunning turn of events, the city’s capture by opposition forces in just four days has effectively nullified years of Iranian investment. What had taken Iran and Hezbollah years to build was undone in a matter of days, highlighting the fragile and unpredictable nature of the conflict.

The underground base of the Iranian-backed Liwa Fatemiyoun proxy militia has been captured by rebels in Khan Shaykhun, southern Idlib.

For those who discuss foreign groups in Syria, the Iranians are the primary contributors.

1/3 Iran’s Weapon Smuggling Hub Disrupted:

The capture of Aleppo has significantly disrupted the Iran-Aleppo-Latakia-Lebanon smuggling route, a major supply line for weapons to armed groups in Syria and Lebanon. This route has long been crucial for the flow of arms from Iran, playing a central role in the region’s conflict.

Furthermore, with the rebels making significant advances toward Hama and Homs, the capture of these cities could effectively shut down the second major weapon smuggling hub in the region.

This would leave only the southern smuggling route from Damascus to be dealt with.

The fall of these key areas would further isolate Hezbollah and Lebanon from Iran's weapons supply.

Iranian ballistic missile malfunction:

Some of the ballistic missiles fired from Iran exploded mid-air yesterday over Shiraz, as captured in footage taken from a plane.

Furthermore, new footage has emerged showing two large fires in the outskirts of Shiraz, where an Iranian civilian claims that missiles fired by the IRGC, intended for Israel, landed in Fars Province, just 5 kilometers from the launch site.

Wow. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed in a CNN Turk report that the Iranian Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the leader of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.

This unit was reportedly responsible for stealing nuclear documents and for the assassinations of several Iranian nuclear scientists, before allegedly fleeing to Israel.

New body-cam footages from September 2023 showcases Azerbaijani SOF and commando units in action, highlighting trench, mountain, and forest warfare.

The footage shows multiple captured Armenian NKR trenches and a barrack, along with a command vehicle.

9 lives: New body cam footage from September 2023 shows an Azerbaijani commando firing at an Armenian NKR soldier less than 100 meters away in the open during a trench position takeover, yet somehow missing all the shots.

Now that’s one lucky soldier…

Trench-warfare: New body-cam footage shows an Azerbaijani commando narrowly escaping a bullet during a takeover of an Armenian NKR trench in September 2023.

End of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a declaration recognizing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity at a meeting with Western leaders held in Granada, Spain.

The declaration reportedly includes Armenia recognizing the territory of Azerbaijan as 86.6 thousand km², including Karabakh region and three enclaves: Barxudarlı, Yuxarı Eskipara and Karki

Unseen military equipment captured of former Armenian NKR forces in Karabakh region by Azerbaijani forces which includes quadcopters, multiple D-20 howitzers, BMPs, tanks, a UAV command vehicle, multiple military trucks, heavy mortar launcher, svd snipers, rpgs, heavy machine guns and more.

https://youtu.be/He6yDtKmMo8?si=LR9qKOgkFxYxIIYP

Captured Armenian NKR military trucks, artillery, bmps, tanks and more by Azerbaijan. Some have already been seen in previous videos a few days ago.

Footage from Sep. 19 of an Azerbaijani Ural military truck cooking off during the 24-hour operation. Peep the “F” symbol appearing on a nearby truck as this is the same symbol we had spotted painted on Azerbaijani military convoy on Sep.9

Former Armenian NKR General Karen Jalavyan (right side of picture) who had refused to lay down weapons a few days ago has appeared to be in Goris town, Armenia. It is reported that Azerbaijan gave him and his unit amnesty in exchange for surrendering their weapons.

Former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic State Minister Ruben Vardanyan was arrested at the Lachin checkpoint and is being taken to Baku.

It is reported that Vardanyan tried to cross the Azerbaijani checkpoint with a shaggy car but was recognized by border guards.

The latter was one of Kremlin’s main asset in Karabakh region and we could see Russia trying to negotiate his freedom.