Institute for the Study of War

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have abandoned their positions in the dacha area on the east (left) bank of the #Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.
https://isw.pub/UkrWar071123

Here’s everything else you need to know from tonight’s campaign assessment: https://isw.pub/UkrWar071123

Germany and France pledged to provide Ukraine more weapons systems during the first day of the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11.

A coalition of 11 states signed a memorandum with Ukraine outlining the terms for training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 aircraft at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11.

The Kremlin’s and Russian milbloggers’ reactions to the first day of the NATO Summit were relatively muted.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attempted to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort against the backdrop of the NATO Summit.

A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for failing to defend against Ukrainian strikes on Russian headquarters.

Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly fired Commander of the 58th CAA Major General Ivan Popov after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives.

An unknown actor killed the Krasnodar City Deputy Head for Mobilization, Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky, on July 10.

Russian forces are conducting offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and made territorial gains.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s northern and southern outskirts.

Russian forces launched assaults on Ukrainian positions on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Kremlin continues measures to gradually mobilize Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) to meet Russian military demands in Ukraine without conducting a wider economic mobilization.

The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 11 that the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) is struggling to establish regional branches in occupied territories in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 11 and made gains in some areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Berdyansk directions (Zaporizhia Oblast-Donetsk Oblast border area), and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut.

Geolocated footage published on July 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Robotyne (15km south of Orikhiv).[18] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces established control over new positions northwest of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and advanced up to 1.5km near Rozdolivka (19km northeast of Bakhmut). https://isw.pub/UkrWar071123

NEW: Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal.

Russia’s drone strikes on port infrastructure also coincide with the first day of the NATO Summit in Vilnius and are likely intended to discourage NATO members from providing more military aid to Ukraine.

Russia may be threatening the Black Sea grain deal to message the deal's original broker, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that his recent statement of support for Ukraine’s NATO membership and the return of the five Ukrainian Azovstal commanders on July 7 has not gone unnoticed and is not appreciated by the Kremlin.

Latest assessment https://isw.pub/UkrWar071123

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around the city.

In five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months. https://ISW.pub/UkrWar071023

NEW: Five hundred days ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine.

The Russian military intended to take Kyiv within three days but failed to accomplish any of its intended objectives in Ukraine.

Determined and skillful Ukrainian resistance has forced the culmination of multiple Russian offensives including the one aimed at Kyiv and has liberated Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, as well as the parts of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts that Russian forces had temporarily seized.

Ukrainian forces have secured and retained the initiative and are conducting counteroffensive operations along most of the frontline with Russian forces focused almost entirely on trying to hold on to the Ukrainian lands they still occupy.

With Western assistance, Ukraine has ensured its independence but faces the critical task of liberating the strategically vital territory still under Russian control.

Full report: https://isw.pub/UkrWar079823