Market Watch مارکت واچ

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods by President-elect Trump earlier this week impacted financial markets – pressuring the loonie lower by about 1.5%. It currently sits at 71 cents U.S.
✔️If implemented, the tariffs would result in a significant drag on the Canadian economy.
✔️GDP growth was soft in the third quarter, but the details were much stronger, supporting our call for a small rate cut as opposed to another 50-bps move.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, accelerated to a six-month high in October.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its November meeting showed members broadly favored a gradual return to a more neutral policy stance.
✔️President-elect Trump announced that he would implement a 25% tariff against Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff against China on inauguration day.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian inflation made headlines this week, with both overall and core inflation pushing higher in October.
✔️The Canadian consumer was also in the spotlight as retail sales surged and the Federal government announced big stimulus measures to further support spending.
✔️Rising inflation and stronger consumer spending have raised odds that the BoC will revert to a 25 bp cut when it meets in December.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️A quiet week for data with the housing market showing healthy sales activity and Fed speakers recommitting to a data-dependent approach to policy.
✔️The focus will be on housing inflation in next week’s Personal Income and Outlays report for October.
✔️Productivity growth has allowed inflation to cool without sacrificing much growth. Whether that continues through the end of 2024 and into 2025 will be material for Fed policy.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada continues to digest the implications of last week’s U.S. election result, as interest and exchange rates adjust to expectations for policy changes south of the border.
✔️Existing home sales came in strong for a second consecutive month, a sign that interest rate cuts are starting to support the housing market.
✔️Next week, we will see more hard data that should shed light on how inflation and spending fared in October, which will also help inform the Bank of Canada’s December rate decision.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Progress on the inflation front appears to have stalled. Core CPI inflation held steady in October, while the trend over the past three months has accelerated.
✔️October retail sales were also solid, putting consumer spending in the fourth quarter on a very solid footing.
✔️Chair Powell moved markets on Thursday by saying that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates. This sent Treasury yields and the dollar moderately higher, while weighing on equities.

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خلاصه ای از اقدامات کلیدی مدنظر ترامپ

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Donald Trump’s election victory means heightened macroeconomic uncertainty north of the border.
✔️Canada’s labour market put in a decent showing in October as the unemployment rate steadied, while job creation continues.
✔️A hefty increase in preliminary housing sales data for October may be proof that interest rate cuts are beginning to boost housing market activity.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️President-elect Donald Trump will serve as the 47th president of the United States, securing 295 of the 538 Electoral College votes.
✔️Republicans also gained control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives is still up for grabs. Odds favor the Republicans maintaining control of the House, though 25 seats have yet to be called.
✔️The Federal Reserve delivered on a quarter-point rate cut this week, and kept the door open to further cuts in the months ahead.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️A call for a jumbo cut to head off mortgage reset rates must be assessed carefully. Surprisingly, roughly a quarter of mortgages will reset at a LOWER interest rate next year.
✔️For those renewing into higher rates, the shock might be milder than expected, given a 30% increase in home prices and wages. Years of debt repayments have also built equity room, which homeowners, including those with variable-rate-fixed-payments mortgages, can use to lower payments if needed.
✔️While rapid rate cuts can relieve mortgage pressures, they also stoke risks. Restoking housing demand, pulling forward consumer spending, weakening purchasing power and dampening investment through a softer loonie. Indeed, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. economy expanded by a robust 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (annualized) in the third quarter, only a touch slower than the 3% pace seen in Q2.
✔️Growth in both income and consumer spending picked up in September while core PCE inflation held steady at 2.7% y/y.
✔️Employment was essentially flat in October, with the economy adding a meager 12k jobs – well below the already-low 100k consensus estimate. The ongoing Boeing strike and disruptions related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton both weighed on the headline.

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در سالهای مختلف انتخابات آمریکا، هر کمپین چقدر کمک مالی گرفته است

آخرین وضعیت دو جناح در انتخابات آمریکا

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise as the race for the White House tightened, leading to elevated uncertainty regarding the future path of fiscal policy.
✔️Federal Reserve speakers this week noted that further reductions in interest rates would be warranted, although incoming data supported a cautious approach.
✔️Existing home sales fell to a fourteen year low in September. Elevated interest rates, combined with expectations for lower rates moving forward, worked to keep demand subdued.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The Bank of Canada made a super-sized interest rate cut this week, taking the overnight rate to 3.75%. The Bank cited the significant decline in inflation as a key factor, but their inflation forecast was little changed from July.
✔️The Bank’s data dependence has made policy decisions backward looking. If they had focused on their inflation forecast rather than the data, they would have cut rates earlier in the year.
✔️This focus on the here and now, rather than the forecast may result in overdoing it and needing to recalibrate rates later. Resulting in a more stop-and-go path for interest rates.

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تحلیل تکنیکال دلار آمریکا (در مقابل تومن)
به نظر پتانسیل رشد تا 77-80 هزار تومان برای امسال و احتمالا طی 3 ماه آینده وجود دارد که قیمت در اینصورت به سقف کانال (بنفش رنگ) خواهد رسید. اهداف بعدی در ادامه مسیر بستگی به واکنش قیمت به این محدوده دارد. نمودار فوق محدوده ٢/۵ سال اخیر را نشان می دهد.
By Farshid U.

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The retail sales report once again reinforced the message that the U.S. consumer continues to brush off headwinds.
✔️Personal income growth, some remaining pandemic savings, and a healthy labor market should help to support trend-like growth in personal consumption expenditures into early 2025.
✔️A still healthy labor market, and a commitment to data dependency means a measured and deliberate approach to interest rate reductions.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian inflation made headlines this week with a big downwards move, pushing below the central bank’s 2% target.
✔️The housing market is starting to stir, with resale activity jumping in September. At the same time, listings have surged, as sellers test out the market following nearly two years of housing market uncertainty.
✔️The easing in inflation has raised odds that the BoC follows the Fed with an outsized 50 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Progress on the inflation front appears to have stalled at the end of the third quarter, as core CPI inflation ticked up, albeit modestly, by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% year-on-year in September.
✔️Initial jobless claims surged higher by last week, as states affected by Hurricane Helene (FL, NC) and the ongoing Boeing strike (WA) recorded outsized increases to their unadjusted initial jobless claims.
✔️Between stronger job growth, and slower progress on inflation, we expect the Fed to cut rates more gradually, with two quarter-point cuts in November and December.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s job market defied expectations in September, with the unemployment rate ticking down for the first time since January.
✔️The better-than-expected jobs data will temper expectations for a 50-basis point cut from the Bank of Canada this month. We expect a 25-basis point reduction in the overnight rate.
✔️The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey reaffirms that businesses are feeling the burden of high interest rates, but most are not planning to reduce headcounts and fewer are expecting a recession.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. labor market perked up in September as job gains beat expectations, the unemployment rate ticked down and annual wage gains edged up.
✔️The economic outlook, however, has been buffeted by significant disruptions, namely Hurricane Helene and a port worker strike.
✔️The production side of the economy continues to travel two very different paths with manufacturing contracting, while services expand.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian market conditions this week were dictated by U.S. and global developments amid a quiet domestic calendar.
✔️Markets are putting some odds on a larger 50 basis point cut at the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement on October 23rd. We expect they will stick to a quarter point cut.
✔️The next two weeks will feature critical data releases including inflation, labour market updates and Bank of Canada surveys which will weigh heavily in the final decision.

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باورتون میشه شهرهایی از چین با صدها ساختمان مسکونی شبیه این وجود داره!

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core PCE index, continued to cool in August with the 3- and 6-month annualized trends converging closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
✔️Federal Reserve officials who spoke this week noted that the slowing labor market was a key consideration in their monetary policy decision last week and that further rate cuts were expected moving forward.
✔️Congress managed to pass a continuing resolution this week to fund the federal government through December 20th, removing the risk of a government shutdown until after the upcoming election.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s jobs market loosened again in July, with the ratio of job vacancies-to-unemployed workers falling further below its 2019 average.
✔️Canada’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.2% month-on-month in July. Still, third quarter growth will likely come in well shy of the BoC’s 2.8% projection.
✔️Population growth eased through Q2, although at 7.3% the temporary resident share of Canada’s population is far away from the federal target of 5% by 2027.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang, reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), bringing the target range to 4.75%-5.0%.
✔️Futures markets are pricing an additional 75 bps of cuts by year-end, slightly more than the updated median FOMC forecast, which shows another 50 bps of cuts.
✔️Economic data out this week including retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production all came in stronger than expected.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Headline inflation clocked in at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) 2.0% year-on-year target in August. This marks a symbolic accomplishment for an economy that has been struggling to deal with high inflation for the last three years.
✔️Retail sales pointed to a strong summertime bounce back, while housing starts and house price growth continue to ebb in the face of still high interest rates.
✔️The stabilization in inflation has raised odds that the BoC follows the Fed with an outsized 50 basis point cut at either its October or December meeting.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Markets have been weighing the prospect that the Federal Reserve will opt for a 0.5 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate next week.
✔️Core consumer price index inflation surprised to the upside, lifted by a strong print from owners’ equivalent rent.
✔️The breadth of inflation continues to gradually narrow, but a still resilient economy supports the case for a standard 0.25 point cut at next week’s Fed meeting.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian household net worth rose further in the second quarter of 2024, with gains in U.S. equities and deposits offsetting declines in real estate and Canadian equities.
✔️Consumer spending remains muted. TD Spend data shows spending on services slowing down, now tracking closer to goods spending, as debt servicing costs continue to weigh on household budgets.
✔️The Bank of Canada is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75% by year-end. Stay tuned for our updated economic forecast that will be released next Tuesday.

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🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in August, even as wage growth accelerated, and the unemployment rate edged down. Additionally, JOLTS data pointed to lower job openings, suggesting that the U.S. labor market continued to cool.
✔️Fed Governor Williams stated that the time had come for less restrictive monetary policy but remained mum on the possible size of any cut. Governor Waller, however, suggested he favored starting carefully.
✔️Manufacturing activity continued to contract in August, with demand easing. However, the services sector, continued to chug along as it has for much of this year.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada this week, as they proceeded with another rate cut this week. We expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.
✔️Employment data for August showed modest job gains, but the details of the report indicate cooling in the labour market.
✔️Canada recorded a trade surplus in July, leaving net trade tracking to add modestly to third quarter growth in Canada.

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سهم خانه های دارای سیستم تهویه مطبوع در کشورهای مختلف، به عنوان شاخصی از سطح رفاه
ژاپن، آمریکا و کره جنوبی در صدر