Market Watch مارکت واچ

کالاهایی که از اعمال تعرفه های ترامپ تاثیر می پذیرند
یعنی احتمالا این کالاها در آمریکا گران‌تر می شوند و کشورهای تولید کننده هم سخت تر می توانند بفروشند
خودرو، نفت خام، گوشی موبایل، کامپیوتر و قطعات خودرو

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️President Trump kept most Canadians glued to their TVs/socials this week, announcing tariffs to take effect February 1st, before quickly delaying them for 30 days following a big market selloff and further measures at the border from Canada.
✔️Canadian trade data came in quite positive in December as firms appear to be frontrunning potential tariffs. Exports for the fourth quarter of 2024 are now tracking double digit growth.
✔️The job market continues to hum along, with a gain of 76k net new jobs in January. That marks three straight months of above-trend job growth.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been put on hold for one month, but a 10% tariff was imposed on imports from China.
✔️Companies have ramped up inventories ahead of tariffs, leading to a sharp increase in the trade deficit in December. Activity has eased off in the services sector, but continued to reaccelerate in manufacturing.
✔️Hiring has slowed in January, however, the labor market remains solid overall. Significant upward revisions to the fourth quarter figures suggest that job growth was stronger at the end of last year than previously thought.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

نیمی از شرکت‌های S&P500 در گزارش‌های مالی اخیر خود به هوش مصنوعی اشاره کرده اند

بانک مرکزی کانادا پیش بینی می کند که اعمال تعرفه های ترامپ بر کانادا می تواند نرخ رشد اقتصادی کانادا را امسال ٢/۵ درصد و سال دیگر ١/۵ درصد کاهش دهد

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️President Trump continues to threaten Canada with a 25% tariff on its U.S. exports as early as Saturday. A prolonged U.S.-Canada trade skirmish could dampen growth significantly and lift inflation.
✔️The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, bringing it to 3.0%. A trade battle would likely warrant more rate cuts than we built into our December baseline.
✔️The November GDP report suggests that Canada’s economy performed well in Q4, indicating solid momentum heading into the potential trade shock.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. economy ended 2024 on solid footing, expanding at a 2.3% annualized pace. The consumer did the heavy lifting, with spending accelerating in the fourth quarter.
✔️The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, continued to hover somewhat above target in December, growing at 2.8% year-on-year. But trends over the past few months suggest further cooling ahead.
✔️Major action may come on the trade policy front as early as this weekend, with President Trump reiterating his intentions to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico – America’s largest trading partners.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The inaugural week of Trump’s presidency reminded markets how quickly sentiment can shift. The looming threat of tariffs could raise costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.
✔️For now, inflation is easing. December inflation data moved closer to the Bank of Canada’s target, with consumer inflation expectations anchoring around historical norms.
✔️Retail sales were weak in November, but December’s rebound in the flash estimate suggest stronger year-end activity, supporting a more gradual 25-basis-point cut next week.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️President Donald Trump was sworn in as 47th President on Monday and wasted no time signing a barrage of executive orders.
✔️While President Trump did not impose any tariffs in Week 1, he threatened Canada and Mexico with a 25% tariff (and later China with a 10% tariff) as early as February 1st.
✔️But without any immediate action, financial markets breathed a sigh of relief, though this could be short lived as the February 1st deadline quickly approaches.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

ثروتمندان کره زمین

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday, and Canadians are bracing for the economic threats in recent weeks to turn into action through a flurry of executive orders.
✔️Canada is economically tied to the U.S., with $1.9 billion in daily goods and services exported to its southern neighbour. That amounts to over 20% of GDP.
✔️While we aren’t expecting the worst-case scenario on tariffs, even a tapered down set of tariffs could be enough to send temporary shockwaves through the economy and financial markets.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️December’s CPI report brought some modestly positive news on inflation. The headline CPI came in as expected and even better core inflation had a softer month after a string of hot readings.
✔️Retail sales also saw a solid gain in December. While consumers reduced spending at restaurants and bars, it’s likely they were just busy shopping.
✔️Fed officials continued to emphasize that the economy remains solid and that the central bank can afford to be patient with further interest rate cuts.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

ریسکهایی که جهان در سال پیش رو با آنها مواجه است کدامند و اولویت آنها نسبت به ١٠ سال قبل چه تغییری پیدا کرده است

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s job market ended 2024 on a high note. The economy added the most jobs in almost two years, while a decrease in the unemployment rate and robust gains in hours worked support economic strength into 2025.
✔️Trade data is moving into focus as Trump leans on the U.S. trade deficit with Canada as a motivation for implementing his tariff plan.
✔️The Bank of Canada is still expected to deliver a 25 bps cut on January 29th, but the likelihood is falling on the back of economic and political developments.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️U.S. Treasury yields have jumped yet again, after another payrolls report topped expectations.
✔️If the economy can manage this level of interest rates without losing much momentum, the need for additional rate cuts becomes an open question.
✔️The Trump administration is set to take over on January 20th, with tariffs top-of-mind.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s economy gained momentum in the latter half of 2024, providing a decent hand-off into the current year. Real GDP growth is expected to move closer to a trend-like pace in 2025.
✔️The Bank of Canada has more rate cuts in the tank. Lower borrowing costs should continue to support household consumption and the housing market, though rate spreads to the U.S. will likely pressure the Loonie lower.
✔️The Canadian federal election comes into focus this year, but Canadian financial markets will likely continue to be heavily influenced by stateside political developments.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The 119th session of Congress commenced this week, with the House of Representatives beginning the process of electing a Speaker of the House.
✔️The debt ceiling suspension that had been in place since June 2023 expired this week, with the U.S. Treasury expected to begin implementing extraordinary measures in the coming weeks to avert a potential default.
✔️Pending home sales improved in November, but elevated mortgage rates continue to restrain the housing sector.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

بزرگترین شرکت‌های بالای هزار میلیارد دلاری جهان

بزرگترین دارندگان رمز ارزهای جهان کدامند؟

ضعیف ترین پاسپورتهای جهان کدامند؟!

دلار دقیقا طی محدوده زمانی مذکور به محدوده قیمتی ٨٠ هزار تومن رسید، شاید رشدی اینچنینی طی مدت کوتاه به نظر خیلی بعید به نظر می رسید

متوسط بدهی کارت‌های اعتباری در ایالتهای مختلف آمریکا

صنعت خودروی جهان در دستان کدام تولید کنندگان و چه کشورهایی قرار دارد

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The Fall Economic Statement (FES) was delivered amid a chaotic week for the federal government. Larger deficits and modest stimulus were features, although the FES is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy.
✔️Data on the real economy was mixed, with gains in home sales and starts in November, but flat retail volumes in October and (potentially) November.
✔️Core inflation was sticky in November, strengthening the case for a patient approach to rate cuts next year.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.5%, as expected. But, updated forecasts showed that FOMC members now expect inflation to be a bit hotter next year, and as a result expect to make only 50 basis points in cuts next year, down from 100 bps in September.
✔️Economic growth was revised upwards in the third quarter. Real GDP rose 3.1%, up from 2.8% previously.
✔️There was also good news on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The Core PCE Deflator held steady at 2.8% in year-on-year terms in November, but cooled noticeably on a month-to-month basis.

💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch

کشورهای عضو ناتو چقدر هزینه دفاعی! دارند و چرا ترامپ به اینکه آمریکا دو سوم هزینه های ناتو را برعهده گرفته معترض است

Some of the best performing commodities in 2024
✔️Cocoa (+185%) — The best performing commodity of 2024, driven up by adverse weather conditions in key West African producing nations, particularly strong Harmattan winds leading to drier climates, reduced cocoa yields. This region accounts for approximately 75% of global cocoa bean production
✔️Eggs US (+107%) — Mass outbreaks of avian influenza led to substantial reductions in the population of egg-laying hens, decreasing egg production and creating a supply shortage
✔️Coffee (+72%) — Climate change-induced weather anomalies, including droughts and unseasonal frosts in key coffee-producing regions like Brazil, disrupted coffee bean production through 2024. Additionally, coffee is seeing increased global demand from emerging markets
✔️Orange Juice (+65%) — Multiple hurricanes alongside persistent citrus greening disease has led to a significant decline in orange production, reaching the lowest levels in over 80 years.
✔️Germanium (+89%) — Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from China has created supply uncertainties for germanium, a rare earth element used in electronics and renewable energy technologies.
✔️Gold (+28%) — General economic uncertainty and relatively elevated inflation has seen investors seek safe-haven assets over 2024, increasing demand for gold. Central banks have also continued to buy the precious metal at a near record pace

Some of the worst performing commodities in 2024
✔️Iron Ore (-23%) — A slowdown in China's construction and manufacturing sectors has led to reduced demand for steel, significantly decreasing iron ore demand. Worse, increased production from major mining companies has contributed to an oversupply, and new large mines are expected to start producing next year
✔️Soybeans (-24%) — Favourable weather conditions in major producing regions saw bumper soybean harvests in 2024, leading to an oversupply in the market. At the same time, reduced demand from key importers and increased competition from alternative oilseeds created am effective market glut
✔️Cotton (-15%) — Shifts in consumer spending patterns led to decreased demand for textiles and apparel last year, while high inventory levels from previous years’ harvests led to oversupply and falling prices

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%. This is the second straight upsized cut to interest rates, and marks a cumulative 175 bps of easing since the Bank first lowered rates in June.
✔️There are more cuts to come in 2025, but the Bank’s forward-looking comments signaled greater uncertainty over the path for interest rates.
✔️Canadian household wealth continues to rise, bolstering our view that consumer spending will firm up over the coming quarters.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️November CPI inflation provided further evidence that progress on the inflation front has stalled.
✔️The FOMC is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25 bps next week and simultaneously hint towards a potential ‘pause’ in January to better assess recent inflation dynamics.
✔️The FOMC will also release a revised set of economic projections, which will shed some light on how Committee members’ views have shifted post-election.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

تبار ساکنان فعلی آمریکا به تفکیک ایالات

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut rose to 80% as the unemployment rate ticked up to its highest level since January 2017 (excluding the pandemic).
✔️There are notable positives in the jobs report. Employment rose by more than twice the consensus forecast, and the employment rate held steady in October, breaking the recent trend of declines.
✔️With looming tariffs, fiscal spending is poised to rise in 2025. Together with the rebound in consumer spending and real estate, this argues for a more measured 25-basis point rate cut next week. The Bank may still opt for larger cuts if it prioritizes higher unemployment rate and broader economic weakness.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The embattled ISM Manufacturing Index showed improvement in November, but continued to point to contraction. In contrast to manufacturing, the services sector continued to expand in November, although the pace of growth slowed.
✔️As was widely expected, hiring rebounded in November, with payrolls adding 227,000 new jobs, as impact of the Boeing strike and hurricanes reversed. However, an uptick in the unemployment rate increased market confidence that a Fed rate cut is in the offing.
✔️Vehicle sales also posted a sizeable gain in November, reaching the highest level in over three years. It is possible that some of this strength in sales came from replacement demand related to hurricane activity.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods by President-elect Trump earlier this week impacted financial markets – pressuring the loonie lower by about 1.5%. It currently sits at 71 cents U.S.
✔️If implemented, the tariffs would result in a significant drag on the Canadian economy.
✔️GDP growth was soft in the third quarter, but the details were much stronger, supporting our call for a small rate cut as opposed to another 50-bps move.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, accelerated to a six-month high in October.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its November meeting showed members broadly favored a gradual return to a more neutral policy stance.
✔️President-elect Trump announced that he would implement a 25% tariff against Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff against China on inauguration day.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian inflation made headlines this week, with both overall and core inflation pushing higher in October.
✔️The Canadian consumer was also in the spotlight as retail sales surged and the Federal government announced big stimulus measures to further support spending.
✔️Rising inflation and stronger consumer spending have raised odds that the BoC will revert to a 25 bp cut when it meets in December.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️A quiet week for data with the housing market showing healthy sales activity and Fed speakers recommitting to a data-dependent approach to policy.
✔️The focus will be on housing inflation in next week’s Personal Income and Outlays report for October.
✔️Productivity growth has allowed inflation to cool without sacrificing much growth. Whether that continues through the end of 2024 and into 2025 will be material for Fed policy.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada continues to digest the implications of last week’s U.S. election result, as interest and exchange rates adjust to expectations for policy changes south of the border.
✔️Existing home sales came in strong for a second consecutive month, a sign that interest rate cuts are starting to support the housing market.
✔️Next week, we will see more hard data that should shed light on how inflation and spending fared in October, which will also help inform the Bank of Canada’s December rate decision.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Progress on the inflation front appears to have stalled. Core CPI inflation held steady in October, while the trend over the past three months has accelerated.
✔️October retail sales were also solid, putting consumer spending in the fourth quarter on a very solid footing.
✔️Chair Powell moved markets on Thursday by saying that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates. This sent Treasury yields and the dollar moderately higher, while weighing on equities.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

خلاصه ای از اقدامات کلیدی مدنظر ترامپ

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Donald Trump’s election victory means heightened macroeconomic uncertainty north of the border.
✔️Canada’s labour market put in a decent showing in October as the unemployment rate steadied, while job creation continues.
✔️A hefty increase in preliminary housing sales data for October may be proof that interest rate cuts are beginning to boost housing market activity.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️President-elect Donald Trump will serve as the 47th president of the United States, securing 295 of the 538 Electoral College votes.
✔️Republicans also gained control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives is still up for grabs. Odds favor the Republicans maintaining control of the House, though 25 seats have yet to be called.
✔️The Federal Reserve delivered on a quarter-point rate cut this week, and kept the door open to further cuts in the months ahead.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇨🇦Canada
✔️A call for a jumbo cut to head off mortgage reset rates must be assessed carefully. Surprisingly, roughly a quarter of mortgages will reset at a LOWER interest rate next year.
✔️For those renewing into higher rates, the shock might be milder than expected, given a 30% increase in home prices and wages. Years of debt repayments have also built equity room, which homeowners, including those with variable-rate-fixed-payments mortgages, can use to lower payments if needed.
✔️While rapid rate cuts can relieve mortgage pressures, they also stoke risks. Restoking housing demand, pulling forward consumer spending, weakening purchasing power and dampening investment through a softer loonie. Indeed, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing.

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. economy expanded by a robust 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (annualized) in the third quarter, only a touch slower than the 3% pace seen in Q2.
✔️Growth in both income and consumer spending picked up in September while core PCE inflation held steady at 2.7% y/y.
✔️Employment was essentially flat in October, with the economy adding a meager 12k jobs – well below the already-low 100k consensus estimate. The ongoing Boeing strike and disruptions related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton both weighed on the headline.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

ظاهراً هریس امروز با فاصله جلو افتاده

در سالهای مختلف انتخابات آمریکا، هر کمپین چقدر کمک مالی گرفته است

آخرین وضعیت دو جناح در انتخابات آمریکا

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise as the race for the White House tightened, leading to elevated uncertainty regarding the future path of fiscal policy.
✔️Federal Reserve speakers this week noted that further reductions in interest rates would be warranted, although incoming data supported a cautious approach.
✔️Existing home sales fell to a fourteen year low in September. Elevated interest rates, combined with expectations for lower rates moving forward, worked to keep demand subdued.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The Bank of Canada made a super-sized interest rate cut this week, taking the overnight rate to 3.75%. The Bank cited the significant decline in inflation as a key factor, but their inflation forecast was little changed from July.
✔️The Bank’s data dependence has made policy decisions backward looking. If they had focused on their inflation forecast rather than the data, they would have cut rates earlier in the year.
✔️This focus on the here and now, rather than the forecast may result in overdoing it and needing to recalibrate rates later. Resulting in a more stop-and-go path for interest rates.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

تحلیل تکنیکال دلار آمریکا (در مقابل تومن)
به نظر پتانسیل رشد تا 77-80 هزار تومان برای امسال و احتمالا طی 3 ماه آینده وجود دارد که قیمت در اینصورت به سقف کانال (بنفش رنگ) خواهد رسید. اهداف بعدی در ادامه مسیر بستگی به واکنش قیمت به این محدوده دارد. نمودار فوق محدوده ٢/۵ سال اخیر را نشان می دهد.
By Farshid U.

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The retail sales report once again reinforced the message that the U.S. consumer continues to brush off headwinds.
✔️Personal income growth, some remaining pandemic savings, and a healthy labor market should help to support trend-like growth in personal consumption expenditures into early 2025.
✔️A still healthy labor market, and a commitment to data dependency means a measured and deliberate approach to interest rate reductions.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian inflation made headlines this week with a big downwards move, pushing below the central bank’s 2% target.
✔️The housing market is starting to stir, with resale activity jumping in September. At the same time, listings have surged, as sellers test out the market following nearly two years of housing market uncertainty.
✔️The easing in inflation has raised odds that the BoC follows the Fed with an outsized 50 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Progress on the inflation front appears to have stalled at the end of the third quarter, as core CPI inflation ticked up, albeit modestly, by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% year-on-year in September.
✔️Initial jobless claims surged higher by last week, as states affected by Hurricane Helene (FL, NC) and the ongoing Boeing strike (WA) recorded outsized increases to their unadjusted initial jobless claims.
✔️Between stronger job growth, and slower progress on inflation, we expect the Fed to cut rates more gradually, with two quarter-point cuts in November and December.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s job market defied expectations in September, with the unemployment rate ticking down for the first time since January.
✔️The better-than-expected jobs data will temper expectations for a 50-basis point cut from the Bank of Canada this month. We expect a 25-basis point reduction in the overnight rate.
✔️The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey reaffirms that businesses are feeling the burden of high interest rates, but most are not planning to reduce headcounts and fewer are expecting a recession.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatc

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. labor market perked up in September as job gains beat expectations, the unemployment rate ticked down and annual wage gains edged up.
✔️The economic outlook, however, has been buffeted by significant disruptions, namely Hurricane Helene and a port worker strike.
✔️The production side of the economy continues to travel two very different paths with manufacturing contracting, while services expand.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian market conditions this week were dictated by U.S. and global developments amid a quiet domestic calendar.
✔️Markets are putting some odds on a larger 50 basis point cut at the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement on October 23rd. We expect they will stick to a quarter point cut.
✔️The next two weeks will feature critical data releases including inflation, labour market updates and Bank of Canada surveys which will weigh heavily in the final decision.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

باورتون میشه شهرهایی از چین با صدها ساختمان مسکونی شبیه این وجود داره!

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core PCE index, continued to cool in August with the 3- and 6-month annualized trends converging closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
✔️Federal Reserve officials who spoke this week noted that the slowing labor market was a key consideration in their monetary policy decision last week and that further rate cuts were expected moving forward.
✔️Congress managed to pass a continuing resolution this week to fund the federal government through December 20th, removing the risk of a government shutdown until after the upcoming election.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s jobs market loosened again in July, with the ratio of job vacancies-to-unemployed workers falling further below its 2019 average.
✔️Canada’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.2% month-on-month in July. Still, third quarter growth will likely come in well shy of the BoC’s 2.8% projection.
✔️Population growth eased through Q2, although at 7.3% the temporary resident share of Canada’s population is far away from the federal target of 5% by 2027.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The Federal Reserve started its easing cycle with a bang, reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), bringing the target range to 4.75%-5.0%.
✔️Futures markets are pricing an additional 75 bps of cuts by year-end, slightly more than the updated median FOMC forecast, which shows another 50 bps of cuts.
✔️Economic data out this week including retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production all came in stronger than expected.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Headline inflation clocked in at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) 2.0% year-on-year target in August. This marks a symbolic accomplishment for an economy that has been struggling to deal with high inflation for the last three years.
✔️Retail sales pointed to a strong summertime bounce back, while housing starts and house price growth continue to ebb in the face of still high interest rates.
✔️The stabilization in inflation has raised odds that the BoC follows the Fed with an outsized 50 basis point cut at either its October or December meeting.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Markets have been weighing the prospect that the Federal Reserve will opt for a 0.5 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate next week.
✔️Core consumer price index inflation surprised to the upside, lifted by a strong print from owners’ equivalent rent.
✔️The breadth of inflation continues to gradually narrow, but a still resilient economy supports the case for a standard 0.25 point cut at next week’s Fed meeting.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canadian household net worth rose further in the second quarter of 2024, with gains in U.S. equities and deposits offsetting declines in real estate and Canadian equities.
✔️Consumer spending remains muted. TD Spend data shows spending on services slowing down, now tracking closer to goods spending, as debt servicing costs continue to weigh on household budgets.
✔️The Bank of Canada is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75% by year-end. Stay tuned for our updated economic forecast that will be released next Tuesday.

💥t.me/BBMarketWatch

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in August, even as wage growth accelerated, and the unemployment rate edged down. Additionally, JOLTS data pointed to lower job openings, suggesting that the U.S. labor market continued to cool.
✔️Fed Governor Williams stated that the time had come for less restrictive monetary policy but remained mum on the possible size of any cut. Governor Waller, however, suggested he favored starting carefully.
✔️Manufacturing activity continued to contract in August, with demand easing. However, the services sector, continued to chug along as it has for much of this year.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada this week, as they proceeded with another rate cut this week. We expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.
✔️Employment data for August showed modest job gains, but the details of the report indicate cooling in the labour market.
✔️Canada recorded a trade surplus in July, leaving net trade tracking to add modestly to third quarter growth in Canada.

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سهم خانه های دارای سیستم تهویه مطبوع در کشورهای مختلف، به عنوان شاخصی از سطح رفاه
ژاپن، آمریکا و کره جنوبی در صدر

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The second estimate of Q2 GDP revealed that the U.S. economy grew at 3.0% annualized, a bit stronger than previously reported, thanks to an upward revision in consumer spending.
✔️Spending momentum continued into July, outstripping income growth for the sixth consecutive month and pushing the savings rate to a two-year low of 2.9%.
✔️Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the three-month annualized rate of change fell below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Second-quarter GDP came in ahead of expectations, driven by government expenditures and business spending. Other details were less encouraging, as household spending, residential investment and net exports fell short of expectations.
✔️In other news, June payrolls declined for the first time in six months while the job vacancy rate remained steady.
✔️The Bank of Canada is likely to interpret this week’s data as supportive of maintaining its easing bias, with two-three more quarter-point cuts expected by year-end.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting as well as Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole showed a clear commitment that the FOMC will start cutting rates in September.
✔️The Fed is likely to start slow, cutting by 25 basis points next month. But any signs of a more abrupt cooling in the labor market will result in a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.
✔️Adding to evidence of a cooler labor market, annual benchmark revisions showed non-farm employment ended Q1 with less momentum than previously thought.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Headline inflation continued to decelerate in July, coming in at a palatable 2.5% year-on-year - the lowest reading since early 2021.
✔️The CNR/CPKC work stoppage made news this week, and the government has sent the parties to final arbitration, which hopefully sees operations return in the coming days.
✔️Retail sales came in weak for June, reminding us that consumers’ spending power remains limited in the face of high rent and high interest rates.

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The biggest asset in the world is your mindset

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The July report for the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021.
✔️U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations in July, rising 1.0% month-on-month.
✔️Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium will headline the week.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Bad news for Canada’s international trade this week, as the U.S. hiked softwood lumber duties and Canada’s two major rail lines halted shipments of certain goods ahead of a potential lockout.
✔️Housing activity took a breather in July after a strong showing in June. Still, the soft patch will likely prove to be temporary amid falling interest rates and a resilient economy.
✔️The marquee event on next week’s data calendar is the July inflation report. We expect core inflation to have eased, leaving the door wide open for a September rate cut.

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فقط دو کشور چین و هند نزدیک به یک سوم جمعیت جهان را دارا هستند. قاره آسیا بیش از نیمی از جمعیت جهان را دارد، قاره ای که بیشترین رشد اقتصادی را به خود اختصاص داده است. آسیا تا چند سال آینده دو-سوم جمعیت جهان را به خود اختصاص خواهد داد!

Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️Inflation and the labor market are cooling off, but the economy has not yet hit a wall. Despite what markets may be fearing.
✔️The ISM services survey showed broad based improvements in July, while falling longer term interest rates are easing financial conditions.
✔️Next week’s inflation report and the Jackson Hole summit in a couple of weeks are two big events to keep an eye on.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Canada’s labour market continues to bend, but not break. A slight decline in both employment and labour force growth has kept the unemployment rate steady.
✔️We have shifted our expectations for the path of interest rates, where we expect Bank of Canada to deliver three quarter-point cuts over the remainder of 2024.
✔️Trade data released this week is firming up expectations that economic growth may overshoot the Bank of Canada’s estimates in the second quarter, while also providing a strong hand off into the third quarter.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter, growing by 2.8% (annualized), up from 1.4% in the first quarter.
✔️At the same time, inflation cooled to 2.5% year-on-year (y/y) in June, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure deflator. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core PCE, was unchanged relative to May.
✔️High interest rates continued to burden the housing market in June, as existing home sales fell 5.4% month-on-month.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by a second straight 25 basis points, taking the overnight rate to 4.50%.
✔️The Bank’s communications took a dovish turn, pushing forecasters to bump up their expectations for the pace of future rate cuts.
✔️Economic projections in the updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR) suggest that Canada’s economy will achieve a soft-landing.

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Weekly Economic Highlights

🇺🇸U.S.
✔️After an eerily calm few months, a fresh dose of volatility descended across global financial markets this week.
✔️Top Fed officials speaking this week noted that they are getting ‘closer’ to cutting interest rates. Financial markets have fully priced the first cut to come in September.
✔️Retail sales and industrial production data for June came in better than expected, while homebuilding remains under pressure.

🇨🇦Canada
✔️Economic data was under the microscope this week, ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on July 24th. An interest rate cut is universally expected, with both business sentiment and retail sales pointing to weak demand in Canada’s economy, which should help ease inflation pressures going forward.
✔️However, if Governor Macklem opts to surprise markets with a hold, he will likely cite a lack of progress on core inflation metrics in recent months, driven by services inflation moving in the wrong direction recently.

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