Slow Compounding

A Story of a Transaction

I did bulk buying in smallcap mutual funds in Sep 2022. Level: Nifty Smallcap 100 at 9500. PE: 18.5.

With that, my overall mutual fund holding skewed heavily towards the smallcap. Almost 60%.

I had a plan to sit on it for some time. Within 1.5 years, the Nifty smallcap 100 touched 27 PE with 17000 level. The weightage of my portfolio on Smallcap rose higher with 1.8x jump. I was not feeling comfortable. I sold until my mutual fund portfolio weightage on smallcap reduced to 20%.

Afterthat, the market moved sideways and then kept going high. Nifty Smallcap 100 touched almost 19500 level with PE 34 on Dec 2024.

Did I sell too early?
Not sure.


After a minor correction in the market today, Nifty smallcap 100 is at 15400 level with PE26.5.

Am I happy to see that ? Not sure.

Well, after I sold my Smallcap holding, I didn't sit in cash. I bought the Nifty Bank index. I was feeling comfortable with the transaction. Since then, it is marginally up by 7%.

Was it a good move? Not sure.


But one thing I am sure, I felt comfortable with all these transactions and slept well at night. I typically don't like to check Market movement everyday. Just weekly once is good enough for me. With my temperament, I felt it was comfortable and I did that.

We get too hooked up with return. And there is no higher limit of it.

So, My Transaction was... Giving up the return, in exchange, Embracing my mental peace.

Maximizing "N"

I will share some interesting facts that I explored recently.

I am in my mid-thirties. I came to know that only 7% of the population of my age meet five criteria that ensures that your lifestyle is in right track.

1. Waist size 32' (male)
2. Blood pressure: systolic <120, diastolic < 80
3. Triglycerides <100
4. HDL cholesterol > 40
5. HBA1C <5.2

Unfortunately, I do not meet the last pointer and not part of 7% elite class. These are some simple checks that show if one needs change of course for maximizing physical health.So, this work remains in progress.

Health is just one aspect. There are many other areas we can work on to maximize the runway of compounding.

PS: this post may appear irrelevant to this group. The idea is to compound. Many things that we value, come through compounding. Wealth, health, happiness, reputation and the list goes on...

Work in progress

Investing is not about chasing excitement; it’s about embracing patience. Like crafting a ten-year-old whisky, it requires discipline, care, and time to mature. The true reward lies not just in the returns but in the wisdom gained through the journey of learning and growth.

More specifically, a novice will try to get high "r". When you understand, the holy grail is in "n", you are in the game. Now, I have been exploring different ways to maximize "n".

News and Data

You will find news flashing where FII are selling billions of dollars in India.

Here is the data. Spend 3-5 min. It will save your time from reading junks news.

Perspective: Our market capitalization today is around ~$5.3 to 5.5 trillion (or ~$5,300 to 5,500 billion), and FIIs hold approximately ~18%, which amounts to about ~$950 to 1,000 billion. Therefore, an outflow of $10 billion represents just ~1% of FIIs’ holdings.

https://youtu.be/jN_TMSgaaLw

Underperformance


True that my portfolio has underperformed, I have not sold anything like them. Professional individuals need to sell something or other. Because that's how they earn money and make a living. I never blame them.

https://x.com/Health_z_wlth/status/1828424990582284534

Another proof that part time investors are better.

Part time Investing

Have you observed that the Nifty 50 remaining almost flat over one month. At the same time, have you observed how much news fired up the media and our sentiments?

Media speculation will always be restless. Prediction games will go on without any break. Every YouTube video will make you think that you are better informed about the future. They will sometimes convince you to buy their recommendations also.

Everyday, you are flooded with news. It is really difficult not to react.


If you are not a full time investor, and busy with your day job, consider yourself lucky!

Excitements

In the past, when the US economy was in recession, one journalist was dining with Warren Buffett. The journalist was hopeless how the economy would come out of recession, he blamed policy and decisions taken by the administration. And he expressed many other things that frustrated him terribly. He went on and on...


Warren, who was having food and listening to him patiently, asked him a question.

What is the best selling chocolate before recession?

Journalist replied, Snickers

Warren asked again.

What is the best selling chocolate now?

The journalist replied, Snickers.

The conversation ended.

We try to predict and worry what is not in our control. We do it because it brings excitement.

Investing is not a sport of excitement. Those who are playing for excitement, will eventually pay the cost.

P.S. The fact stated here was from the book, Same as Ever by Morgan Housel. It is a must-read book. Not once. Many many times. (Well, again, reading is boring. Watching news or videos on multi-bager on youtube is exciting).

Buy in Dips - Can we do?

If the price of tomatoes rises to 200 per kg and then drops to 190, would you buy in bulk?

This situation is similar to the stock market now. The PE ratio of Nifty is still above 23, even after a decline. Historically, investing at this valuation has yielded high single-digit returns (in five years).

Newcomers tend to buy on dips because it has worked for the past four years.

However, in a true bear market, the market may crash by 50-60%.

At that time, ask yourself how long you can continue buying with each 5% dip.

In my view, a better approach is to monitor the market's PE ratio and strategize accordingly.

P.S. An anonymous quote shapes my perspective: Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Those who are investing before Covid... please share your lessons for everyone's interests.

Those who have been investing for decades now, please post. Because all of us are trying to learn.

Good Corrections

Stock market corrections are a vital part of the investment journey. Without this, people will make unreasonable expectations from the market.

If a 2-5% drop makes you uneasy, take a step back and look at the returns over 3 to 6 months. Keeping a broader perspective can help you stay calm and focused on long-term goals.

If you have been investigating for the last 2-3 years, you have made money. Probably, this is the time to take a look and think allocations based on valuation matrices.

P.S. More than activities, rational thinking works better in the stock market.

The Steady Winners

Think about a tree growing in your backyard. Every day, it looks almost the same, and you might not even notice its growth. But over the years, it becomes a mighty tree, offering shade, fruits, and a home for birds.

Similarly, some companies grow slowly and steadily. They don’t have sudden upgrades or earnings surprises, which might seem boring and predictable. However, this predictability means stability. Here’s why they’re powerful:

Reliable growth: Steadily increase their profits, giving you dependable returns.

Less Drama: There’s no roller-coaster of sudden highs and lows, reducing your investment risk.

Better Health: Less chance of getting addicted to check news frequently and help maintain your BP in check.


Long-Term Strength: Over time, their consistent performance leads to significant growth.

Imagine companies like PI Industries, HDFC Bank or Hindustan Unilever. They might not be in the news for explosive gains, but their consistent, reliable performance makes them powerful. (Not any recommendations or advice).

We often get lured by higher return and take risks unnecessary. Understand that you have to survive all the risks to reach the finishing line. Once you miss to tackle risk, you may be blown out of the game. The game is all about surviving here. If you have a longer time, lower Return is also fine. You will create wealth.

P.S. The first rule of Investing - Don't lose money. (Buffet)

Timing

"Time in the market beats timing the market." - Ken Fisher

Regret

Equity investing is full of regret. In all cases, equity will offer you the space for regret.

If the stock goes down, the regret cloud forms easily.

If the stock goes up but doesn't go up as per your expectations, regret will overcast you.

If the stock runs up, you will regret why you have not bought more.

The best way to deal with it, is to accept all these feelings. These are the tolls for wealth creation journey.

And ignore one or two stock performances. Portfolio counts. Over the long term.

Relaxo is still struggling to keep up its profitability

Election Results & Market

If daily ups & downs are bothering you, just check one month's data of Nifty 50.


Nifty 50 is hardly down by 2.5%. Most of your portfolio has not changed much over the last one month.

Volatility is the daily saga. Relax and ignore it like the advertisement on your online streaming.

Paint companies Asian Paints and Berger Paints start slashing prices | Company News - Business Standard
https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/paint-companies-asian-paints-and-berger-paints-start-slashing-prices-124051701296_1.html

https://youtu.be/INztpkzUaDw

The moment at the end of 38 min, it just touched me!

RBI cracks down on Kotak Mahindra Bank; bars onboarding new customers through online, mobile banking and issuing new credit cards
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rbi-bars-kotak-mahindra-bank-from-onboarding-new-customers-through-online-mobile-banking-issue-new-credit-cards-12707215.html

Those who will be cursing this PMS, appreciate that performance also moves with the cycle.

More underperforming will trigger investors to withdraw more. When the underperformance will hit the rock bottom, value will again emerge.

Nothing in this galaxy escapes this cyclic nature.

Price War