OCBC Research Insights

@ocbcresearchinsights

Build your edge with insights from the team of economists and analysts from OCBC Global Markets Research & Strategy. Stay ahead of trends and developments on the economies and asset classes including FX, rates, fixed income/bonds, commodities

Build Your Edge with OCBC Research Insights (English)

Are you looking to stay ahead of trends and developments in the world of economics and asset classes? Look no further than OCBC Research Insights, the Telegram channel that provides you with valuable insights from the team of economists and analysts from OCBC Global Markets Research & Strategy. With a focus on FX, rates, fixed income/bonds, and commodities, this channel is your go-to source for staying informed and building your edge in the market. By joining OCBC Research Insights, you will have access to exclusive research, analysis, and recommendations that can help you make informed decisions and seize opportunities before others do. Stay ahead of the curve and take your investment strategy to the next level with the expert insights provided by OCBC Research Insights. Join now and start building your edge today!

OCBC Research Insights

28 Jan, 02:31

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 27 January 2025)

🌏 Global: Central Banks

🇯🇵 Japan: BoJ raises interest rate by 25bp

🇰🇷 South Korea: 4Q24 GDP grew by 1.2% YoY

🇸🇬 Singapore: Lower December core inflation, MAS reduces S$NEER slope, Stronger December industrial production, Moderating Labour Market

🇨🇳 China: Cost efficiency

🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Labour Market still tight, Price pressure stayed modes, Housing prices reverted to downtrend

🇮🇩 Indonesia: Further changes to the natural export proceeds rule

🇲🇾 Malaysia: BNM on Hold

🇹🇭Thailand: Solid December customs trade data

🛢 Commodities: Oil price rally fizzles, CPO moderating prices

💱 FX & Rates: 2-Way Trade Amid Holiday-Thin Liquidity

Read the full report from here

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

OCBC Research Insights

24 Jan, 13:05

Credit Research Insights EP74 (24 Jan 2024): Singapore Property Market - Our take on 2024's Price Surge and 2025 Outlook

The podcast shares the factors driving prices higher, highlights potential risks and our 2025 outlook, which include:

📈 Strong Demand: Driven by rising aspirations, household formation, and limited supply for now while households remain resilient

❗️ Potential Risks:
= Increased land supply could impact prices.
= Potential for policy changes following upcoming elections.

🔮 Outlook in 2025: Prices are expected to increase, however our expectations have moderated relative to 2024.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #WongHongWei

OCBC Research Insights

24 Jan, 10:06

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP132 (24 Jan 2025): Monetary Authority of Singapore

🏦 Monetary Authority of Singapore eased its monetary policy for the first time since March 2020. Market reaction seems to be muted for now.

🎙In today's podcast, Selena will share her key takeaways from this change of monetary policy stance in Singapore.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

22 Jan, 00:30

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 20 January 2025)

🌏 Global: Central Banks, Soft December CPI

🇰🇷 South Korea: BoK mantains its policy rate

🇸🇬 Singapore: December NODX accelerated to 9.0% YoY

🇨🇳 China: A V-shape recovery in the last quarter of 2024, Can China escape the middle income trap, Property market is the key for 2025

🇮🇩 Indonesia: BI cuts by 25bp and signals more to come, Slowing exports growth in December 2024, High approval rating for the President

🇲🇾 Malaysia: Solid growth in 2024, Solid December trade data

🇹🇭Thailand: Improved consumer confidence

🛢 Commodities: Oil prices closed higher

💱 FX & Rates

♻️ ESG: TNFD deepens engagement in China with Bank of China's participation

Read the full report from here

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

OCBC Research Insights

21 Jan, 00:32

ESG Matters EP69 (21 Jan 2025): NDCs 3.0 - Enhancing Climate Action

🌡️ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) encompass national climate action plans by each country under the Paris Agreement, with the aim of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

🗓 The next round of NDCs is due in February 2025, presenting an opportunity for countries to adopt more ambitious sectoral targets and accelerate implementation. They are expected to detail stronger sectoral targets and robust climate adaptation measures, among other priorities.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ESG #OngShuYi

OCBC Research Insights

17 Jan, 13:02

FX and Rates EP109 (17 Jan 2025): Brace for Volatile Week Ahead

🌏 Trump inauguration (20 Jan) in focus. There are expectations for tariff announcement but we acknowledge developments remain fluid and highly uncertain in terms of timing, magnitude and scope. Temporary delay or watered down version may provide a breather for risk proxies.

🇯🇵 Reiterate our house view for BOJ hike at upcoming MPC. Broader direction of travel for USDJPY is skewed lower. That said, any slowdown in pace of Fed-BOJ policy normalisation may imply a bumpy path for USDJPY.

🇸🇬 MAS policy decision is due 24 Jan. Given progress on disinflation, we see reasonable roll for MAS to ease policy by reducing policy slope slightly while still maintaining a mild appreciation stance.

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #ChristopherWong

OCBC Research Insights

17 Jan, 10:04

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP131 (17 Jan 2025): A Brake in Global Bond Selloff

🏛 The global market took a breathe this week after the rebound of China’s equity market and weaker than expected US inflation data put a brake in the global bond selloff.

🎙In this podcast, we will discuss how long the breathe will last and what investors should watch for in the coming weeks.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

17 Jan, 00:30

🎥 Exclusive Videos on Market Outlook 1H2025 🎥

📊 Thailand Outlook
Thailand's economy faces a complex landscape in 2025, with potential headwinds from global trade tensions and domestic challenges. However, the government has introduced proactive measures to stimulate growth and maintain stability.

Click here to watch!

📊 Credit Outlook
According to our SGD credit tracker, the SGD credit market returned +6.6% in 2024. In general, stronger performance was delivered by subordinated papers, long-term papers and higher yielding credits. At the same time, it was a buoyant year for the SGD primary credit market with 2024 issuance surpassing full-year issuances in recent years with factors favouring issuances and the strong credit market performance including tight credit spreads, higher demand for SGD credit, and relative interest rate stability. This created a favourable environment for issuers to issue SGD credit even with interest rates remaining high relative to pre-pandemic and pandemic years.

Click here to watch!

OCBC Research Insights

15 Jan, 00:32

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 13 January 2025)

🌏 Global: Central Banks, Expansion in services sector, Stronger then expected labour data

🇪🇺 Eurozone: Inflation uptick in December 2024

🇸🇬 Singapore: Expecting higher NODX growth in December 2024

🇨🇳 China: RMB stability remains a priority, Reflation path remains bumpy

🇮🇩 Indonesia: Extending retention period ; BI preview

🇲🇾 Malaysia: JS-SEZ signing

🇵🇭 Philippines Higher inflation in December 2024

🛢 Commodities: Oil prices surged following sanctions on Russia

💱 FX & Rates

♻️ ESG: : Cooperation on carbon credits and CCS between SG and
MY

Read the full report from here

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

OCBC Research Insights

13 Jan, 10:33

China Week in Review EP92 (13 Jan 2025): RMB Stability

💰 RMB stability remains a priority within China's monetary policy framework. China has rolled out more measures to defend the currency.

🏦 In the medium term, RMB will depend on economic fundamentals. A clear reflationary trend and improved growth prospect is important.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

OCBC Research Insights

10 Jan, 10:03

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP130 (10 Jan 2025): Rise of US Treasury Yields

🏛 US Treasury yields have reached levels that are now arguably one of the most important drivers of global asset classes. After months of apparent decoupling, the equity market has finally reacted to these higher yields.

🎙In this podcast, we try to explain the recent rise in US yields and whether the US Treasuries are approaching levels that could be considered fundamentally attractive.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

10 Jan, 00:35

🎥 Exclusive Videos on Market Outlook 1H2025 🎥

📊 FX Outlook
2024 has been a rather eventful year as we transition from an environment of high for longer to monetary policy easing.

The year of 2025 could potentially be a highly volatile year, characterized by the three Ps, namely Policy normalisation (in terms of monetary policy) ; Politics or geoPolitics, and Protectionism. Trump's threat on tariff is clearly one of the biggest risks that markets are focusing on as it can undermine global trade, growth, market sentiments and pose risks of inflation (for US).

Click here to watch!

📊 China
China's economy faces a complex landscape in 2025, with potential headwinds from global trade tensions and domestic challenges. However, the government has introduced proactive measures to stimulate growth and maintain stability.

Click here to watch!

#OCBCResearchInsights #Videos

OCBC Research Insights

09 Jan, 10:06

Credit Research Insights EP73 (9 Jan 2024): Singapore REITs - Navigating 2025 & Beyond

In this podcast, we discuss the outlook for Singapore REITs in 2025 with the following key takeaways:

💰 Funding Market Dynamics:
- REITs issued more credit instruments, driven by factors like spread compression.
- Equity market for REITs was active in 2H 2024, primarily for acquisitions.

📄 Perpetuals in Focus: A significant number of REIT Perpetuals face potential resets, which may lead to refinancing activities.

🏦 Regulatory Updates: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has introduced new regulations for REITs, including a minimum interest coverage ratio and an aggregate leverage limit.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #EzienHoo

OCBC Research Insights

07 Jan, 10:03

🎆 Happy New Year to all our subscribers!

🗓 A quick recap of 2024 and outlook of 2025

OCBC Research Insights

20 Dec, 10:02

🙇‍♀️ Thank you to all our subscribers for your support!

📆 We will be taking a short break for the holiday season and resume posting on 6 Jan 2025.

OCBC Research Insights

20 Dec, 00:31

🎥 Exclusive Videos on Market Outlook 1H2025 🎥

📊 Malaysia Outlook 1H2025 - Further strides in the right direction
In 2025, Malaysia is projected to maintain a growth rate of 4.5%, driven by continued strong domestic demand and a diversified export base. However, there are risks on the horizon, including potential global trade tensions and rising inflation.

Click here to watch!

📊 Interest Rate Outlook 1H2025
Join us as our Head of FX and Rates Strategy, Frances Cheung, explores the interest rate outlook for 2025, covering topics like US interest rate trajectory, global interest rate dynamics, regional perspectives and key risks.

Click here to watch!

#OCBCResearchInsights #Videos

OCBC Research Insights

17 Dec, 00:31

ESG Matters EP68 (17 Dec 2024): COP29: Tripling Climate Finance

🌏 COP29, dubbed the “Finance COP”, closed with a new climate finance goal to support developing countries in managing the impacts of climate change.

💰 The agreement will triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of US$100bn annually, to US$300bn annually by 2035. However, developing countries criticised the deal for being insufficient.

📄 As the quality of finance is important, COP29 acknowledged the need for public and grant-based resources, as well as highly concessional finance for developing countries.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ESG #OngShuYi

OCBC Research Insights

13 Dec, 00:30

🎥 Exclusive Videos on Market Outlook 1H2025 🎥

📊 Macroeconomics
In this video, our Chief Economist, Selena Ling, will explore the potential policy impact under U.S. President-elect Trump, who is set to take office on January 20, 2025. Financial markets have started to pre-empt Trump’s threats of significantly higher tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, on concerns about the potential impact on inflation and economic stability.

Click here to watch!

📊 Indonesia
Indonesia's 2024 political transition has been smooth, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and fostering growth. While the new government aims for ambitious growth targets, it's crucial to balance fiscal prudence with economic stimulus.

Click here to watch!

#OCBCResearchInsights #Videos

OCBC Research Insights

12 Dec, 10:02

Credit Research Insights EP72 (12 Dec 2024): SGD Credit Outlook 1H2025

In this episode, we delve into the outlook for SGD Credit market in 2025, covering the following:

💪 Strong Performance in YTD 2024: A recap of the positive performance driven by lower interest rates and spread compression. SGD Credit market outperformed Asia-dollar IG bonds considerably on local currency basis.

🔮 Outlook for 2025: A cautiously optimism for the year ahead, with potential challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and rate hikes.

🏙️ Sectoral Deep Dive: Insights into the performance and outlook for various sectors, including S-REITs, Singapore Property market and financial institutions.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #ChinMengTee

OCBC Research Insights

06 Dec, 10:03

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP129 (6 Dec 2024): Fed's Policy Normalisation Path

🏛 In light of recent statements from Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a more cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy toward a neutral stance due to the current economic strength.

🎙In today's podcast, we will discuss how this has influenced the projections for the Fed's policy normalisation path.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

04 Dec, 01:55

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 2 December 2024)

🌏 Global: Central Bank; US 3Q24 GDP remains robust; US headline and core PCE rise in October; Euro Area November uptick in inflation; Still tight labour market, rising Tokyo CPI

🇸🇬 Singapore: Industrial production eases in October; MOM 2024 Labour force report

🇨🇳 China: Further decline of government bond yields; Sentiment improved further

🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Housing prices rebounded for the first time in five months; Resuming “multiple-entry” visa scheme; Exports slowed further amid high base

🇲🇴 Macau: Easing travel restrictions to Macau

ASEAN: BRICS+ and potential implications

🇮🇳 India: 3Q24 GDP growth shocker likely to set rate cuts in motion

🇮🇩 Indonesia: Lower November CPI may not be enough for BI

🇹🇭 Thailand: Uneven improvements continue in October

🛢️ Commodities: Crude oil prices closed lower; Elevated CPO prices unlikely to sustain

💱 FX & Rates: Heavy data week

♻️ ESG

Read the full report from here!

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

OCBC Research Insights

02 Dec, 10:02

📑 Exclusive Global Outlook 1H 2025 Report: After 2024 tailwinds, growing headwinds for 2025

We are pleased to release the Global Outlook 1H 2025 report, containing our analysts' views on the economic outlook of -

🇦🇺 Australia: No hurry to cut
🇯🇵 Japan: Gradual policy normalisation
🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Budget driven growth
🇺🇸 United States: Soft-landing clouded by political uncertainty
🇨🇳 China: Whatever it takes
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Interplay of headwinds and tailwinds
🇮🇳 India: Signs of slowing growth amid sticky inflation.
🇮🇩 Indonesia: Stable but watching risks
🇲🇴 Macau: Hitting a speed bump
🇲🇾 Malaysia: Further strides in the right direction
🇵🇭 Philippines: Stabilisation
🇸🇬 Singapore: SG60 will be an important year
🇰🇷 South Korea: More room for easing
🇹🇼 Taiwan: Riding the AI tailwinds
🇹🇭 Thailand: Weaker than regional peers
🇻🇳 Vietnam: Dealing with uncertainties

♻️ There are also other thematic reports where we discuss the global politics and sustainability topics.

Read the full report here!

OCBC Research Insights

02 Dec, 00:14

OCBC Research Insights pinned «Any content posted on this Telegram channel is solely for information purposes and general circulation only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities/instruments mentioned. No warranty…»

OCBC Research Insights

02 Dec, 00:01

Any content posted on this Telegram channel is solely for information purposes and general circulation only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities/instruments mentioned. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient or any class of persons acting on such information, opinion or estimate. You may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the securities/instruments mentioned herein, taking into consideration your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in the securities.

OCBC Research Insights

29 Nov, 10:02

Credit Research Insights EP71 (29 Nov 2024): Updates on Singapore Property Sector

Despite rising interest rates and a global economic slowdown, Singapore's residential property market continues to defy expectations.

Key Takeaways:

💸 Price Surge: Prices have risen by 1.6% in the first nine months of 2024, and are projected to increase by an additional 3-5% by the end of the year.

🏙️ HDB Dominance: HDB resale flats have significantly outperformed private residential properties, especially those outside the core Central Region.

🚊 Decentralisation Trend: The government's push for decentralization is boosting demand in non-core regions like Jurong, Woodlands, and Punggol.

💰Affordability Concerns: While Singapore households remain financially resilient, a significant portion of the population finds private housing unaffordable.

📉 Supply-Side Constraints: Government land sales and developer launches may limit future price growth.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #WongHongWei

OCBC Research Insights

22 Nov, 10:01

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP128 (22 Nov 2024): Singapore’s Economic Trajectory in 2025?

🇸🇬 In today's podcast, we will shift our focus back to Singapore, the economy has continued to surprise on the upside this year.

📈 What has driven this outperformance? And looking ahead, how might a Trump 2.0 influence Singapore’s economic trajectory in 2025?

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

21 Nov, 01:00

FX and Rates EP108 (21 Nov 2024): Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics

💵 USD hovers near 2024 highs as markets continue to price in less dovish fedspeaks, a possible return to US exceptionalism and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency.

💰Threat of tariff is one major concerns. But it remains uncertain in terms of timing and severity of implementation.

🗓 There are differences between now and 2018-19 (Trump 1.0) and one of it includes Fed was then in rate hike cycle while Fed is in rate cut cycle today. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine deserves closer monitoring

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #ChristopherWong

OCBC Research Insights

18 Nov, 10:30

China Week in Review EP91 (18 Nov 2024): October Economic Data

📊 The October economic data suggests that China's recent easing measures are gaining traction.

🎙 In this podcast, we will unpack the current economic data.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

OCBC Research Insights

15 Nov, 10:03

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP127 (15 Nov 2024): Impact of Trump 2.0

🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share the key takeaways from our OCBC Webinar about the impact of Trump 2.0 held on 12 November.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

14 Nov, 10:46

Credit Research Insights EP70 (14 Nov 2024): Development on SIA, CapitaLand, and Hong Kong Land

In this episode, we delved into the latest updates on these three companies:

✈️ Singapore Airlines: Navigating post-pandemic changes and investing in the future.

🏙 Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust: Office asset sale and a new acquisition of ION Orchard.

🏬 Hong Kong Land: Shifting focus to recurring income and exiting development properties.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #EzienHoo

OCBC Research Insights

13 Nov, 02:22

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 11 November 2024)

🌏 Global: Election aftermath; Economic implications; FOMC outlook post elections; ISM manufacturing PMI down, services ticks up; South Korea inflation continues to ease in October

🇸🇬 Singapore: Retail sales higher, lifted by auto sales

🇨🇳 China: Trump 2.0: trade policy is the key for the global economy; What does this mean for China?; Path to resolving the CNY12trn hidden debt

🇮🇩 Indonesia: Weaker growth in 3Q24

🇲🇾 Malaysia: Bank Negara Malaysia holds the line; Industrial production eased in September

🇵🇭 Philippines: Dip in 3Q24 growth likely temporary; Uptick in inflation; CREATE MORE act

🇹🇭 Thailand: Low inflation persists

🛢️ Commodities: Higher crude oil prices

💱 FX & Rates: Adjustments

♻️ ESG: Trump's re-election and impact on global climate action

Read the full report from here!

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

OCBC Research Insights

11 Nov, 10:16

China Week in Review EP90 (11 Nov 2024): Trump 2.0 and China

🗳 Last week brought resolution to two major uncertainties for the Chinese market: the outcome of US election and the scale of the fiscal stimulus.

🎙 For today's podcast, we will discuss what Trump 2.0 means for China.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

OCBC Research Insights

08 Nov, 11:03

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP126 (8 Nov 2024): Trump's Presidency

🗳 With all the excitement surrounding the US election this week, it's easy to overlook the recent FOMC meeting where the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut.

🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share her takeaways as well as whether Trump's presidency will reshape her expectations on future trajectory Fed rate cut and US neutral rate.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

OCBC Research Insights

08 Nov, 09:03

ASEAN - Assessing the Impact of Potential Tariffs

• The US elections on 5 November 2024 is set for a nailing biting finish. This has raised investor anxiety around the prospects of additional tariffs under second potential Trump presidency.

• In this piece, we outline three scenarios for tariff implementation and look at their impact on GDP growth.

• We estimate that ASEAN-6 GDP growth could fall by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 1.3pp depending on the scenario.

Please read the full report here!

#OCBCResearchInsights

OCBC Research Insights

08 Nov, 06:31

US Election Updates

• Donald Trump has been declared the President of the United States and his victory will have clear implications for the economy and financial markets.

• The potential policy implications include higher fiscal spending and increased tariffs on key trading partners.

• From here, market attention will gradually shift to the 7 November FOMC meeting, where we are expecting a 25bp rate cut.

Please read the full report here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #USElections

OCBC Research Insights

07 Nov, 07:00

FX and Rates EP107 (7 Nov 2024): Rates Market Reaction to US Elections

🗳️ Some early signs of stabilisation but market is still digesting the US election outcome and potential implications.

💵 Recent pass-through from higher USD rates onto SGD rates has been on the low side.

🇨🇳 In China, investors are waiting for more details of fiscal support measures. Policy backdrop shall underline our steepening bias on the CGB curve.

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #FrancesCheung

OCBC Research Insights

05 Nov, 00:30

ESG Matters EP67 (5 Nov 2024): New Initiatives to enable Singapore's Energy Transition

📢 At the Singapore International Energy Week 2024 (SIEW2024), there were new announcements made related to enabling Singapore’s energy transition.

🔌 This includes developments in cross-border low-carbon electricity imports, carbon capture and storage feasibility studies, as well as grid resilience and reliability enhancements.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ESG #OngShuYi

OCBC Research Insights

28 Oct, 10:03

China Week in Review EP89 (28 Oct 2024): China's Stimulus Measures

🇨🇳 China's stimulus measures have been making waves in international headlines. But there's some skepticism out there.

🎙 In today's podcast, we will share the latest concerns from international investors.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

OCBC Research Insights

25 Oct, 04:01

ASEAN Focus EP34 (24 Oct 2024): Busy Policy Week

We round-up the week for the ASEAN region - 3 central bank meetings, Malaysia 2025 Budget and 3Q24 advance GDP print and Indonesia’s smooth political transition. On the country specifics:

🇮🇩 Indonesia: BI maintained its policy rate at 6%, prioritising IDR stability. Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as President on 20 October, marking a smooth political transition. His cabinet appointments were a positive surprise.

🇵🇭 Philippines: BSP cut its policy rate by 25bps rate cut, as expected, supported by the continued disinflation trajectory.

🇹🇭 Thailand: BoT delivered a 25bps rate cut. The surprise was the cut coming at the 16 Oct meeting vs our baseline of Dec. The rate cutting cycle will be shallow and we expect another 25bps cut in 2025.

🇲🇾 Malaysia: Budget 2025 balanced economic considerations with political realities. Our baseline remains for BNM to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3% in 2024 and 2025.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ASEANFocus #Lavanya

OCBC Research Insights

25 Oct, 00:30

Hear from Her EP5 (25 Oct 2024): Ms Marie Soon, Mastercard

Join us for an insightful discussion with Ms Marie Soon, Vice President of Inclusive and Sustainable Solutions, Asia Pacific at Mastercard where she shares Mastercard's commitment to ESG and how they are driving positive change through sustainable initiatives.

Key Topics:
- Mastercard's ESG goals and net-zero ambitions
- Innovative sustainable products and solutions
- Empowering women entrepreneurs through financial inclusion
- The role of technology in driving sustainable change

Listen to the full podcast here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #HearFromHer

OCBC Research Insights

24 Oct, 13:01

FX and Rates EP106 (24 Oct 2024): Watching Election Risks

🇺🇸 Traditional polls and decentralised prediction markets are seeing a growing divergence even as we are less than 2weeks away from US elections. Defensive positioning/ Trump hedges (long gold, long usd, short cnh) may still find demand on dips in the near term, given the election uncertainty

🇯🇵 Snap elections this Sunday a focus as outcome may have inpact of BoJ policy stance and USDJPY. We also watch Tokyo CPI (Fri) and BOJ MPC (31 Oct)

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #ChristopherWong

OCBC Research Insights

24 Oct, 09:59

Credit Research Insights (24 Oct 2024): CGIF Part 4 - Perspective of an Investor

In this next episode, our Credit Analyst, Ms Ezien Hoo, discussed with Mr Anuj Awasthi, in the perspective of an investor:

1. There has been a number of bonds across the region that are issued guaranteed by the CGIF. Why do investors buy a bond that is credit guaranteed?

2. What kind of investors in the region buy a CGIF credit wrap bond?

3. What is the difference between full guarantees and partial guarantees? Does the CGIF also wrap bonds on a partial guaranteed basis? What is actually guaranteed?
However, are there any type of defaults which the CGIF guarantee would not cover? What is the difference between non-payment and these other types of defaults?

4. As an investor, I am likely buying on both the standalone strength of the underlying issuer but also the strength of the CGIF. Can you share with us what is CGIF’s credit underwriting process?

Watch the full video here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #CGIF

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