OCBC Research Insights

FX and Rates EP108 (21 Nov 2024): Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics

💵 USD hovers near 2024 highs as markets continue to price in less dovish fedspeaks, a possible return to US exceptionalism and policy uncertainties associated with Trump presidency.

💰Threat of tariff is one major concerns. But it remains uncertain in terms of timing and severity of implementation.

🗓 There are differences between now and 2018-19 (Trump 1.0) and one of it includes Fed was then in rate hike cycle while Fed is in rate cut cycle today. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine deserves closer monitoring

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #ChristopherWong

China Week in Review EP91 (18 Nov 2024): October Economic Data

📊 The October economic data suggests that China's recent easing measures are gaining traction.

🎙 In this podcast, we will unpack the current economic data.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP127 (15 Nov 2024): Impact of Trump 2.0

🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share the key takeaways from our OCBC Webinar about the impact of Trump 2.0 held on 12 November.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

Credit Research Insights EP70 (14 Nov 2024): Development on SIA, CapitaLand, and Hong Kong Land

In this episode, we delved into the latest updates on these three companies:

✈️ Singapore Airlines: Navigating post-pandemic changes and investing in the future.

🏙 Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust: Office asset sale and a new acquisition of ION Orchard.

🏬 Hong Kong Land: Shifting focus to recurring income and exiting development properties.

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #EzienHoo

Weekly Macro Views (Week Starting 11 November 2024)

🌏 Global: Election aftermath; Economic implications; FOMC outlook post elections; ISM manufacturing PMI down, services ticks up; South Korea inflation continues to ease in October

🇸🇬 Singapore: Retail sales higher, lifted by auto sales

🇨🇳 China: Trump 2.0: trade policy is the key for the global economy; What does this mean for China?; Path to resolving the CNY12trn hidden debt

🇮🇩 Indonesia: Weaker growth in 3Q24

🇲🇾 Malaysia: Bank Negara Malaysia holds the line; Industrial production eased in September

🇵🇭 Philippines: Dip in 3Q24 growth likely temporary; Uptick in inflation; CREATE MORE act

🇹🇭 Thailand: Low inflation persists

🛢️ Commodities: Higher crude oil prices

💱 FX & Rates: Adjustments

♻️ ESG: Trump's re-election and impact on global climate action

Read the full report from here!

#OCBCResearchInsights
#WeeklyMacroViews

China Week in Review EP90 (11 Nov 2024): Trump 2.0 and China

🗳 Last week brought resolution to two major uncertainties for the Chinese market: the outcome of US election and the scale of the fiscal stimulus.

🎙 For today's podcast, we will discuss what Trump 2.0 means for China.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

Market Movers with Selena Ling EP126 (8 Nov 2024): Trump's Presidency

🗳 With all the excitement surrounding the US election this week, it's easy to overlook the recent FOMC meeting where the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut.

🎙 In today's podcast, Selena will share her takeaways as well as whether Trump's presidency will reshape her expectations on future trajectory Fed rate cut and US neutral rate.

#OCBCResearchInsights #MarketMovers #SelenaLing

ASEAN - Assessing the Impact of Potential Tariffs

• The US elections on 5 November 2024 is set for a nailing biting finish. This has raised investor anxiety around the prospects of additional tariffs under second potential Trump presidency.

• In this piece, we outline three scenarios for tariff implementation and look at their impact on GDP growth.

• We estimate that ASEAN-6 GDP growth could fall by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 1.3pp depending on the scenario.

Please read the full report here!

#OCBCResearchInsights

US Election Updates

• Donald Trump has been declared the President of the United States and his victory will have clear implications for the economy and financial markets.

• The potential policy implications include higher fiscal spending and increased tariffs on key trading partners.

• From here, market attention will gradually shift to the 7 November FOMC meeting, where we are expecting a 25bp rate cut.

Please read the full report here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #USElections

FX and Rates EP107 (7 Nov 2024): Rates Market Reaction to US Elections

🗳️ Some early signs of stabilisation but market is still digesting the US election outcome and potential implications.

💵 Recent pass-through from higher USD rates onto SGD rates has been on the low side.

🇨🇳 In China, investors are waiting for more details of fiscal support measures. Policy backdrop shall underline our steepening bias on the CGB curve.

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #FrancesCheung

ESG Matters EP67 (5 Nov 2024): New Initiatives to enable Singapore's Energy Transition

📢 At the Singapore International Energy Week 2024 (SIEW2024), there were new announcements made related to enabling Singapore’s energy transition.

🔌 This includes developments in cross-border low-carbon electricity imports, carbon capture and storage feasibility studies, as well as grid resilience and reliability enhancements.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ESG #OngShuYi

China Week in Review EP89 (28 Oct 2024): China's Stimulus Measures

🇨🇳 China's stimulus measures have been making waves in international headlines. But there's some skepticism out there.

🎙 In today's podcast, we will share the latest concerns from international investors.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ChinaWeekinReview #TommyXie

ASEAN Focus EP34 (24 Oct 2024): Busy Policy Week

We round-up the week for the ASEAN region - 3 central bank meetings, Malaysia 2025 Budget and 3Q24 advance GDP print and Indonesia’s smooth political transition. On the country specifics:

🇮🇩 Indonesia: BI maintained its policy rate at 6%, prioritising IDR stability. Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as President on 20 October, marking a smooth political transition. His cabinet appointments were a positive surprise.

🇵🇭 Philippines: BSP cut its policy rate by 25bps rate cut, as expected, supported by the continued disinflation trajectory.

🇹🇭 Thailand: BoT delivered a 25bps rate cut. The surprise was the cut coming at the 16 Oct meeting vs our baseline of Dec. The rate cutting cycle will be shallow and we expect another 25bps cut in 2025.

🇲🇾 Malaysia: Budget 2025 balanced economic considerations with political realities. Our baseline remains for BNM to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3% in 2024 and 2025.

#OCBCResearchInsights #ASEANFocus #Lavanya

Hear from Her EP5 (25 Oct 2024): Ms Marie Soon, Mastercard

Join us for an insightful discussion with Ms Marie Soon, Vice President of Inclusive and Sustainable Solutions, Asia Pacific at Mastercard where she shares Mastercard's commitment to ESG and how they are driving positive change through sustainable initiatives.

Key Topics:
- Mastercard's ESG goals and net-zero ambitions
- Innovative sustainable products and solutions
- Empowering women entrepreneurs through financial inclusion
- The role of technology in driving sustainable change

Listen to the full podcast here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #HearFromHer

FX and Rates EP106 (24 Oct 2024): Watching Election Risks

🇺🇸 Traditional polls and decentralised prediction markets are seeing a growing divergence even as we are less than 2weeks away from US elections. Defensive positioning/ Trump hedges (long gold, long usd, short cnh) may still find demand on dips in the near term, given the election uncertainty

🇯🇵 Snap elections this Sunday a focus as outcome may have inpact of BoJ policy stance and USDJPY. We also watch Tokyo CPI (Fri) and BOJ MPC (31 Oct)

#OCBCResearchInsights #FXRates #ChristopherWong

Credit Research Insights (24 Oct 2024): CGIF Part 4 - Perspective of an Investor

In this next episode, our Credit Analyst, Ms Ezien Hoo, discussed with Mr Anuj Awasthi, in the perspective of an investor:

1. There has been a number of bonds across the region that are issued guaranteed by the CGIF. Why do investors buy a bond that is credit guaranteed?

2. What kind of investors in the region buy a CGIF credit wrap bond?

3. What is the difference between full guarantees and partial guarantees? Does the CGIF also wrap bonds on a partial guaranteed basis? What is actually guaranteed?
However, are there any type of defaults which the CGIF guarantee would not cover? What is the difference between non-payment and these other types of defaults?

4. As an investor, I am likely buying on both the standalone strength of the underlying issuer but also the strength of the CGIF. Can you share with us what is CGIF’s credit underwriting process?

Watch the full video here!

#OCBCResearchInsights #CreditInsights #CGIF