$ROSE Trader @oasisrosetrader Channel on Telegram

$ROSE Trader

11 Feb, 07:06

BTC facing mid range and daily 50EMA here (aligning with 4h 50EMA too on ltf), watching for another tag of the 100k level, then see if we can consolidate around that mid-range level above EMAs

326

$ROSE Trader

11 Feb, 06:45

So far nothing but green days since retrace buy zone, this is where we were looking to long — roughly 15-20% up 👍️️️️

329

$ROSE Trader

10 Feb, 01:17

Behaviourally, we have seen on-chain capitulation peak and drop-off now, here at the 4c range. The market doesn’t move because of ROSE, but this gives us a snap shot into behaviour and sentiment across alts, over time: retail capitulating while we are observing some larger holders now re-accumulate

390

$ROSE Trader

10 Feb, 00:54

Looking forward: My honest outlook is that mid-term we are not done with sub 4c prices, my indicators still have some targets they want filled around the ~0.038 level and below, but rn I suspect we are leaving those targets for later. Near-term, I am liking what I am seeing with this continued CB buying, these regular paced out market buys are normally indicative of accumulation before our next significant move.

487

$ROSE Trader

10 Feb, 00:46

A little recap:
👍️️ Green circle: flash crash buy call, ..wait for BTC to hit range lows target (91.8k)
👍️️ Blue circle: retest of ROSE range +40%
👍️️ Red bar: retrace target, into long, ~16% retrace
— all still tracking well.

365

$ROSE Trader

09 Feb, 01:10

After a week of distribution on Coinbase, starting to see a sequence of large market buys, this is where the arbitrage skew starts turning blue again — as you probably know by now, I like seeing this 👍️️️️️️

380

$ROSE Trader

07 Feb, 23:23

regarding risk — When we were at 14c I was talking about how those levels were an exception, the right arrow marks where we were in the distribution. At 14c only 2% of days had ever traded beyond that extension from the mean. The left arrow is where we are now, at the other tail of the distribution, only 7% of our days have ever traded lower than this extension. This is part of the way I manage and gauge macro risk and allocation. chart is available here: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_mean_multiple.html

449

$ROSE Trader

07 Feb, 23:02

On-chain we continue to see the mid-tier retail cohort 200k-500k capitulate, locking in new losses everyday. The most significant capitulation of this cohort this cycle or last, based on this data. There is value for market makers to hold price at these levels, patience (and risk management)

429

$ROSE Trader

07 Feb, 08:21

Distribution skew in the arbitrage profile has been rolling off into the end of week, we're focused on the yellow profile rolling off, transitioning back to blue ideally. But this is giving some oxygen for price to recover a little near-term

472

$ROSE Trader

07 Feb, 08:12

On track, even with the pronounced distribution —patience at this point watching price develop 👍️️

453

$ROSE Trader

06 Feb, 19:38

Very systematic distribution continues from these wallets, I have 6 wallets linked from Nov '24 all with similar balances (10-11M), so far 3 have been emptied, another just moved to exchange in recent hours. Price otherwise behaving how I would like, but this is a headwind. They are just distributing at a consistent pace no matter the price, roughly 18hrs per wallet — 3 empty, 1 now on exchange, a possible 2 (?) more in waiting.

460

$ROSE Trader

06 Feb, 01:33

This saw-tooth pattern on Coinbase exchange is a series of large Nov '24 wallets zeroing their balances at a loss, they are still distributing today. The uptick in Binance exchange balance is the arbitrage flow from this distribution. This distribution accounts for ~$1M of the losses in the last 24hrs

489

$ROSE Trader

06 Feb, 01:21

Now we're talking, $1.3M in losses locked in over the last 24hrs. That adds to back-to-back ~$500k days. Giving us a total of ~$2.3M in losses locked in over the last 72hrs, cumulatively. Again, this is on-chain and won't capture futures or balances held on exchange. So that number will be higher in reality. On-chain, cumulatively we a nearing the value marked in Dec, when ~$3M in profit taking gave us our price peak

559

$ROSE Trader

05 Feb, 21:01

(1) range lows, back to yearly open at 0.0416, done 👍 going into Thursday, timing is right for a long setup. Price action as I wanted it, anything in that red zone is high value for me, roughly a 5% range from the yearly open (0.042-0.0397)

539

$ROSE Trader

05 Feb, 09:30

Have been getting a lot of supportive messages lately, having helped people with trading and positioning over recent months. Thank you for these 🙏️️️️️️ Anticipating active trading is going to be a bigger focus over the next 12-24 months have been thinking about setting up an referral link to an exchange (coinbase, binance or similar). Would people use something like this? If you’re not familiar with the referral setup, the exchange share a percentage of your trading fees with me as a commission for referring you. You pay nothing, channel gets supported. Win-win? I like the setup on Binance, I can split the commission with you as an on-going rebate on your trading fees, win-win-win

498

$ROSE Trader

04 Feb, 19:44

On-chain there was approx half a million dollars in losses locked in over the past 24hrs (this is spot and on-chain, derivatives and balances held on exchange would be much higher — my figure captures longer term holders). These losses mainly across the >1M-10M, and 200k-500k cohorts <--- seeing a continued capitulation in this particular cohort, 200-500k. But in absolute terms these figures are comparatively low (see second chart)

598

$ROSE Trader

04 Feb, 19:30

Games, looks like large Binance players are re-accumulating after driving some forced selling in the last 48hrs. I wouldn't be surprised to see some continued high volatility chop in the range already described, but broadly plan remains the same 👍

534

$ROSE Trader

04 Feb, 05:56

There we go, base case: (1) retest of range lows and then dropping back to low 4s, I was expecting it to be a little more choppy but we're almost there

595

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 23:47

And there's Canada 👍️️ real tariffs will come, but they will be come later (march-April?) through a longer form process

536

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 22:43

I flagged this in realtime too, but can see this clearly in the price action. Red below price is Coinbase limit orders absorbing Binance market sells. Blue above price is, Coinbase buyers market buying and pushing price back up

522

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 22:39

This I like to see, >19M ROSE arbitraged alone in the last 48hrs from Binance predominantly to Coinbase. This is a huge quantity of arbitrage and reflects the marginal spread over the last 24-48hrs — it shows the disparity in between Binance selling and Coinbase buying. Binance sellers forced price down with market sells, coinbase buyers absorbed and pushed price back up with market buys — all of this is represented by the huge skew towards Coinbase in the arbitrage profile: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_arb.html

508

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 22:26

A few people asking about this possible retest of the 4c range, it's all a matter of Path and timing now: (1) This is my base case: what I would be watching for rn is a ROSEUSD retest the range lows (underway rn), probably close the day around here, see an extension up to 0.052-0.053 range in the new daily then choppy back down progressively to the 4c range, that would be an opportunity to look to long... (2) we continue to rally into Feb OPEX, reclaiming those range lows and moving straight towards the 99D SMA, yearly open and mid-range level, that would be a clear take profit for me at those levels as I would expect a drop to 4c range to follow and at that point we would be more likely retest the lows again, and possibly breakdown to a new low

534

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 19:37

Yearly opens to pay attention to over the coming week/s. '23 yearly open marked bottom over the last 24hrs. '21 yearly open now the level to watch at 0.04159. We should see a retest of that 4c range soon

542

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 19:33

BYBIT CEO estimating that total liquidations over the last 24hrs closer to $8-$10B, BYBIT alone recording $2B

404

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 16:04

🫶️️️️ Tarrifs with Mexico delayed, deal being struck as expected. It won't all be up from here, but the plan was laid out with BTC at range lows, $ROSE already up ~40% from the lows

421

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 06:22

There’s no guarantee’s in this space but so far these are the things I would want to see after BTC hit range lows and ROSEBTC hit target lows

439

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 06:18

Blue above price is Coinbase buyers, I’m part of that buying 👍 Away from the comp rn so just a phone screen grab

440

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 03:27

Mean Multiple currently at 0.46, 93% of all trading days have been above this extension from the Mean, which I treat as the 99D SMA

428

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 03:10

Range lows 👍️️️️️️ now we want to form a bottom here — perhaps, coinciding with trade agreements etc.

363

$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 01:43

BTC approaching range lows, ROSEBTC in target range 43-48 sats

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$ROSE Trader

03 Feb, 01:18

25-50% tariffs on near-sure nations (Canada and Mexico) are a negotiating tool, they use emergency powers to implement and good odds there will be some agreement reached regarding borders in short order (they are intentionally not viable for Canada or Mexico). Real tariffs are coming, just a little later

367

$ROSE Trader

02 Feb, 22:48

Selling rn overwhelmingly driven by Binance sellers into Monday open — I like both these things

436

$ROSE Trader

02 Feb, 22:47

Dip underway, watching BTC at ~91.8k range lows for confluence. ROSEBTC at ~43-47 range (MM offset) 👍️️️️️️ down is the easy part

374

$ROSE Trader

02 Feb, 04:47

Significant capitulation of wallets in the 200-500k $ROSE cohort continues. mid-tier retail locking in their most sustained losses since the end of the 2021-2022 bull peak. Profit and Loss metrics almost fully restored after api migration: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_profit_loss.html

494

$ROSE Trader

02 Feb, 00:34

^^^ In short, we are currently at range and mean multiple lows and I am looking for a green light on a mean reversion trade setup now, targeting the 0.08 range

407

$ROSE Trader

02 Feb, 00:18

ROSE has been in a range for the past 12 months (I'd take this back to the '24 yearly open). We are nearing range lows which is not a bad spot as an investor. We are also nearing the extreme extensions of my Mean Multiple plots on both ROSEUSD and ROSEBTC, this is also signalling historical extremes in price extension from mean and possible mean reversion trade. What I will be watching for as a trader is for a visit to the range lows with a possible deviation below into Feb OPEX, followed by a potential mid-term reversal back to mean (red plot 99D MA), range mid and yearly open, all currently around the 0.08 level. This dip would be confluent with BTC to range lows at ~91800

413

$ROSE Trader

01 Feb, 23:37

Keeping things in perspective, all we have done in Q1 is retrace the extension in Q4. Q4 was bullish with end of year flows + election. Q1 uncertainty and risk-off

403

$ROSE Trader

01 Feb, 01:46

NEW tx: 3.2Million $ROSE transferred off exchange by our Coinbase entity in recent hours — they are active again, this time at the lows 👍

606

$ROSE Trader

24 Jan, 04:35

Another idea worth researching regarding timing and expectations if it interests you (there are papers written on this and it's an idea I hold to — sharing after reading a lot of recent community comments). Key idea: Fundamentals matter, but only long-term. If you invest in fundamentals, be prepared to to wait. Fundamentals don't drive markets near-term. Rather, they more often produce negative reflexivity, e.g. people buy high based on DYOR + FOMO, then sell low based purely on price action, reflexively weakening price <--- everyone is an investor until price drops. If your focus is short term, you should be approaching the charts as a trader (systematic) or speculator (narratives), not as an investor (fundamentals) <---- ALL are fine, just figure out which one you're doing

395

$ROSE Trader

24 Jan, 01:55

Timing is important, the Trump administration is without doubt bullish for crypto, but it may not be delivered in the timeframe that everyone expects (immediately)

354

$ROSE Trader

23 Jan, 00:39

Risk in control here, BTC and S&P at highs. BTC is retesting a upside deviation, until we break those highs the primary risk rn is to the downside, as noted already above

396

$ROSE Trader

23 Jan, 00:34

BTC is back to the 4h 50EMA, ROSE retesting the previous wick low (0.06638) after a deviation below — Added an intraday position at the 0.06638 targeting the 72-78 sat range. will exit position if BTC loses 4h and we lose wick low. Thursday is often a pivot point in the week

384

$ROSE Trader

22 Jan, 05:05

^^ Gain followers with market calls, lose followers with word counts 🫶️️️️️️

410

$ROSE Trader

22 Jan, 05:05

First FED is important — themes I'd be researching towards the 29th remain liquidity, inflation/rates, dollar strength + debt refinancing wall. Key idea: If the FED remain hawkish, liquidity will only be getting more scarce, this is significantly exacerbated by debt refinancing wall and dollar strength in 2025. Take TRUMP coin as a case study in current available liquidity: most alts turned red to pump TRUMP briefly to a 15B mcap (a scarcity highlighted by immediate rotation to MELANIA token) — The market is already positioned bullishly across BTC and equities, where does new liquidity come from? One possibility is a dovish FED resuming cuts, which would be an unexpected u-turn from their last meeting and inflationary (possible, with executive intervention) OR idiosyncratic factors in crypto that would cause a significant rotation. In short: liquidity drives risk and liquidity is set to get more scarce into 2025 while equities and BTC are at all time highs <---- some have been asking about my cautious repositioning from Q4 into Q1, this is central to it

407

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 22:02

Waking up in AUS — watching for BTC and S&P to make meaningful new highs to give a green light to market.. FED in a week, interesting to hear the tone under new administration

396

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 21:58

Be water 🙏️️️️️️😄️️️️️️ crypto solving real-world problems

392

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 16:20

$BTC Trader today, target hit. ROSE still lagging rn, still have ROSEBTC gap to fill - but we get downside risk from here from BTC

401

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 07:49

BTC, many wicks forming below the 4h 50EMA, acting like it wants to deliver the retest of 106k — ROSE resting on the monthly open (bottom of my frame is at ~0.059). If BTC can rise watching for a possible move with BTC up to the 72-78 sat range and watch response. ROSEBTC leaving a gap there it will want to fill in. Want to see BTC hold the EMA

413

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 00:19

^^ this is not a prediction, it helps us model possible outcomes

437

$ROSE Trader

21 Jan, 00:18

Planning for all outcomes: If we do get downside into feb-march, we can use this as a rough floor model. With ROSEBTC I measure the extension from the Daily 50EMA, major lows typical find a bottom around the *0.618 offset from the daily 50EMA — currently that is sitting at ~55 sats. e.g. with BTC at 90k this would be ROSE at 0.0495, this gives a rough target then look for confluence with other factors. (conversely upside extension is typically around the *1.618 offset)

438

$ROSE Trader

20 Jan, 22:37

US session is going to be tiring for traders in the opposite hemisphere the next few years. The basic technical structure: BTC is range bound, wanted to see a meaningful new high but failed. We now have a deviation at the highs. Watching for a possible squeeze back up to the 106k this week but then most likely a drop back into the mid or range lows. Technically, I don't like it BUT any announcement from Trump will push the market near-term too. A squeeze back up to 106 can be positive for alts, but another rejection at the 106 would likely = pain. If we clear the 106 in a meaningful way the whole market will move up. Watching for ROSE to hold the current lows, listening out for the 200 executive orders

473

$ROSE Trader

20 Jan, 07:09

BTC holds above 100k and away we go 👍️️️️

553

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 22:25

We're setting up for at least a brief counter trend rally against BTC pair, just need BTC to hold ground above 100k and that should see us back towards the yearly open this week. The tail risk is BTC dropping to range lows if it losses 100k, but as a trader I like this move down leading into Monday

573

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 22:06

Crypto inauguration 🫶️️️️️️

596

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 21:30

There it is 👍️️️️

550

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 19:50

Just a little day trading insight: we are back at the quarterly and 1h 50EMA here — those are day trader targets, if we fail to clear them and flip to support we can easily drop back to range lows into Monday before another move — thin order books make volatility easy rn. I doubt many here are trading this, but it becomes incrementally less stressful as an investor when you understand the possible range of moves and weekly timing

464

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 19:10

i don't know how to trade TRUMP coin or memes (something to work on..) but I happily trade position sizes 20-40x larger in ROSE than I ever would in any meme — so the multipliers are there. Sizing and confidence, in all weather <<< Cope, but fr

446

$ROSE Trader

19 Jan, 18:11

Caught the bid exactly where we wanted at the 0.07 range

447

$ROSE Trader

14 Jan, 09:25

Looking at how things are developing I am anticipating to see prices dip sub 0.07 again, If that happens this week I would consider that an opportunity to build position. If we fail to see sub 7 near-term and just rally hard into inauguration it would support my thesis that the rise will not be sustained, and taking profits

162

$ROSE Trader

14 Jan, 07:10

My inverse coinbase indicator still nailing it, green trending below red was one of the points of confluence for this leg down in Jan — http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_invCB.html

217

$ROSE Trader

13 Jan, 21:26

A note on the price extreme and Mean Multiple bands: that model is very simple, it paints bands at standard deviation offsets from what I take to be the long term mean (99D SMA). Crypto is a space of extreme greed (e.g 1$ calls in Dec) and extreme fear (e.g. 5c drop minimum fears today), having a simple statistical framework that captures the standard deviation even at historically extreme moments in the market helps to keep a lid on those emotional extremes and guess work. There are tail events where it will move beyond the 2 standard deviation range in a short period, but they are tail events = rare. 95% of the price distribution falls within the bands

283

$ROSE Trader

13 Jan, 20:50

This is how I have my chart setup at the moment, I took a starter position on the move to the 0.069 but my orders at 0.065 and below missed so far. Upside a clear targets are the Yearly open at 0.08027 but I would like to see a push up to 99D and Daily 50EMA which intersect in the 0.08557-0.088 range rn, this would have confluence with ROSEBTC yearly open at 86 sats. If we tag those levels then find acceptance above the USD yearly open (0.08027) I will be watching for a possible push to the Q3 range at 0.09961

285

$ROSE Trader

13 Jan, 20:37

Just waking up in AUS, US market open gapped down which was expected, but has spent the day so far recovering the gap. That takes the Monday open fear off the table but we still have a week full of economic news with a focus on CPI Wednesday which will be important given inflation fears in the 10Y. I am happy with what I am seeing so far, we might get continued volatile+down through to Wednesday CPI but I will be treating that as an opportunity to build position. P.S re: 0.05 extreme noted above, that figure was noted as garden members were talking about 5c expectation minimum, while I had it as a max target. Plus, It is also good to have some price extremes in mind to gauge risk

291

$ROSE Trader

13 Jan, 12:23

Getting our red Monday as expected with US open still to come in a few hours, statistically I would put 0.05 zone as a floor/price extreme near-term (and that would take some drama to hit that level) this is based on my Mean Multiple price model (not out of the question but an extreme). From daily open I had sub 0.069 as high likelihood of strike (we are already in that zone) but particular focus on 0.065-0.059 range if we see it, to watch for high value reversal. Alternatively/then (whichever comes first) Watching BTC to regain the lows >91800 and ROSE to regain the macro wick low 0.07162. I am still expecting a weak open on S&P which could carry us down to the 0.065 range and below.

336

$ROSE Trader

12 Jan, 22:21

Starting our dip into Monday, looking for a possible long setup into the week with inauguration Monday 20th — thing to be mindful of given this is the week of Jan OPEX is that we have been tightly correlated with the S&P recently and S&P is likely to see a weak Monday open too which could see us red for the day (as US market opens late UTC). OPEX positioning shifts tend to occur in the week prior to expiration, the shaded yellow in the above charts show the Monday-Wednesday prior to each OPEX: Dec was brutal — Jan should be less so now but keep an eye on US market open

383

$ROSE Trader

12 Jan, 01:36

Short term trades this is what I am currently looking for: rally into inauguration this week (after possible dip into Monday) to cause max pain now positioning is starting to flip cautiously short, then a likely move down soon after into feb

452

$ROSE Trader

11 Jan, 19:16

I haven’t posted a ROSE price chart recently — back to that soon — but If you are only following the price chart you are missing half the story. Price chart will only ever give you correlation e.g. price has historically behaved in ‘X’ way when ‘Y’ has happened. This is useful, but trying to brute force where price is heading via correlation alone is limited imo (TA, PA based algos) correlation is fleeting and prone to decay - how many bullish TA charts did you see on your feed 7 days ago, and before that early Dec? What you are missing in the price chart is causation, in high risk assets this means liquidity, where it is moving, and by extension how risk is being allocated. Most of what I do (including on-chain) is trying to figure out this part. Key take away: Causation is more actionable than correlation —> but when causation and correlation align, you are on a winner. This is what I was seeing in Q4. I am now waiting to see them align again

415

$ROSE Trader

10 Jan, 21:45

Follow liquidity

455

$ROSE Trader

10 Jan, 21:25

^^ The positioning that would work for us rn is everyone getting too bearish too quick and crowding puts, causing a squeeze up over the next month — but this would be near term. The macro story continues to be the 10Y, as this reflects the availability of liquidity going forward. 10Y up means liquidity down, means risk assets down

452

$ROSE Trader

10 Jan, 21:14

Worth having a macro plan even as a day trader — mapped Oct open, it has kept me largely on the right side of things — this coming Monday Jan 13 is when positioning will start really shifting for Jan OPEX (Looking at this positioning rn). inauguration is the following Monday Jan 20. Currently the stock market moving down on strong jobs numbers as the probability of less rate cuts increases meaning less easy money / less liquidity — 10Y Yields up as market continues repricing, this also reflects a tightening of liquidity. Good news is bad news rn.

446

$ROSE Trader

08 Jan, 21:17

Cred spread / Risk plot continues to curl up. Since FOMC and Dec OPEX it has been only up, aligning with the caution that we were in near term risk-off move. So far we have seen an approx. 1 sigma move since FOMC, when we get a high rate of change (e.g. 2-3 sigma in short order) that is when volatility can really accelerate — see Aug 1 on chart, indicator flagged red (this was yen carry trade moment) but BTC sold off, alts got butchered. Rn now this move up is pretty orderly at 1 sigma, but we are still seeing a cooling as cautioned. BTC and S&P are both sitting on their yearly open as are some stronger alts, but more high risk assets have seen larger moves and are trading below Yearly open (e.g. ROSE). Jan OPEX will see positioning shift again, will be monitoring

571

$ROSE Trader

07 Jan, 20:11

My take for Q1: I am bullish crypto over the long term (4+ years), but for short term setups in Q1 ’25 imo crypto has had it’s initial Trump rally — to continue up immediately, imo we need to see things delivered immediately: tradfi partnerships, policy and regs, a hot news cycle (SBR?). There is room for new narratives we need to start moving from utility ’narrative’ to utility delivery. Otherwise, if we see S&P weakness in Q1 (as already flagged) we will remain correlated and roll-over with it. If this happens, I will be setting up to watch for a new bullish wave as market repositions and monetary and fiscal response emerges (wind down of QT into Q2-Q3). I was very confident running bullish trades through Q4, I am less confident in Q1 — probabilities have shifted, so more actively following price action

692

$ROSE Trader

07 Jan, 20:05

2025 is the year of trying to give price action insights without giving away market edge to Ai agents..

636

$ROSE Trader

07 Jan, 19:53

S&P showing continued cooling into Jan OPEX, Cred Spreads continuing to curl up. Not the end of the world just yet, but has cooled the crypto move as expected for now. BTC.D back up. Main level to watch on ROSE is the yearly open at 0.08027. Psychology shifts if we drop below yearly opens when in January

659

$ROSE Trader

04 Jan, 21:29

^^^ The above isn't a prediction, it is just to point out that BTC.D down doesn't always = alts up, it depends on wider market conditions (as above, liquidity, risk, demand etc)

793

$ROSE Trader

04 Jan, 21:09

ROSE v BTC.D (red): I've seen a lot of BTC.D charts on socials pointing to this Apr '21 drop on BTC.D as 'alt szn' — but it is worth overlaying some price charts — I've done so with ROSE, but you can chuck 2021 leaders such as SOL, AVAX etc and see similar structures. Don't get me wrong, I like seeing BTC.D break down, but we need to see TOTAL remain relatively bullish for that to result in a significant rotation into alts and a weak S&P could cool things down — that is before we even begin talking about breadth and dispersion (many more alts now...)

777

$ROSE Trader

04 Jan, 20:38

Taking time to assess the overall market into the new year, not rushing into things. A few obvious things local to crypto that are easy to like (general market structure, BTC.D + ETHBTC). The some larger things that are making me take it a little slower: S&P shift following FOMC, 10Y Yields up and Credit spreads starting to curl back up into the Jan OPEX (image). <---- all these things are signals of the start of a risk-off trend, near-term. IF, S&P continues to see weakness into and beyond Jan OPEX (a decent probability of this) BTC.D won't give us much near term imo. I can see another 15% rise probable on ROSE (~0.103), but I am not yet convinced that this will be sustained

733

$ROSE Trader

01 Jan, 21:03

Happy New Year All 🥂 start back with the macro: projection from Oct 2024 👍️️️️ BTC done, S&P a little weaker than expected — Dec OPEX did the damage. New Yearly candle open so next macro milestone is Jan OPEX (2 weeks) to see how positioning shifts. My positioning on this is pinned — I'm am focused on active trading for Q1 into Q2 2025

841

$ROSE Trader

23 Dec, 18:30

Few days off over Christmas then back to it 🎄🎄🎄Happy holidays all — in the meantime, watching those key macro levels to flip back to support. Starting with 99D MA and 89 sats 👍 will be building out some BTC correlation metrics in the new year

446

$ROSE Trader

22 Dec, 09:47

This is the Daily Value distributions: it shows how many days have traded at the current distance from the 99D MA (above and below). It is useful to get an idea of where we are probability wise. First chart is today, CDF is 0.56 or 56% meaning that a little over half our trading days have been below the current offset, a little under half above — so we are smack in the middle of the distribution. Second image was saved when we were trading at the red Mean Multiple offset around 14c, CDF was 0.979 or ~98% meaning only 2% of trading days had ever traded above that extension from the 99D MA. This is another way to look at mean reversion probabilities, and part of how I set my profit targets. This chart is part of my Mean Multiple set, available here: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_mean_multiple.html

522

$ROSE Trader

20 Dec, 21:41

^^^ TLDR: 10Y yields are going up when they *should* be going down

549

$ROSE Trader

20 Dec, 21:39

Big macro signal to watch that is different this time, 10Y yields as a sentiment indicator. Two ways we can debate this: (1) liquidity preferring to be in assets rather than long dated bonds = risk-on, or (2) a sign of renewed inflation concerns (risk-off). I flagged the latter (2) post election, it one of the reasons I have been targeting Jan OPEX. Powell has now flagged this same concern in his speech on Weds along with an early end to rate cutting cycle. Market responded. If yields keep rising I would continue to read this as a risk-off signal. Note: '22 top aligned not only with Jan OPEX but also with 10Y yields breaking upwards. Yields are doing this inline with Dec OPEX this time

541

$ROSE Trader

20 Dec, 19:19

For reference: Today, Dec 2024 (left) vs Dec 2021 (right), Same rally to red offset in early Dec, same 50% markdown and flush below 99D SMA mid Dec ---> in 2022 price then peaked into Jan OPEX

547

$ROSE Trader

20 Dec, 18:34

Have been mapping towards the week of Jan OPEX, we got our rinsing for Dec OPEX instead. (Or, as well..) FOMC + Dec OPEX has been a big combo

473

$ROSE Trader

20 Dec, 17:45

Just waking up in AUS, missed a lot of action. Eyes on ROSEBTC behaviour (right) — was written: if we closed the daily below the 89 sats we were expecting an impulsive move to sweep the lows — Done. ROSE back to the 99D SMA after a dip below the Q4 Open. Watching to build a base here now for next moves

493

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 19:09

This model has now completely mean reverted, back to 99D SMA. It gave top, now this is where we want it to find some support at the 99D SMA (currently 0.08183), Q4 open immediately below

504

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 07:11

For reference: the last time the S&P had anything like today's move was in august with the Yen carry trade unwind — that was real panic and was reflected in a rapid risk-off move in the credit spreads (green area). The last 24hrs high risk corporate bond spreads haven't budged, we have to watch to see if they do. But money is not moving out of those high-risk bonds yet. What we have seen so far is a repricing for less rate cuts in 2025

517

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 04:14

Now the next few 4h candles 👍️️ expect a brief dip back below 9c — we just need to see strength on that dip and the wick lows hold ( << reposted, chart was too messy )

472

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 01:34

^^ What I would ideally like to see to go long is a sweep below the wick low on ROSEUSD and then regaining on 4h, that would be the signal long (ROSEBTC likely getting a touch of the 89 sats in the process). If we get stuck below the 89 sats (details in the post from Dec 17) we can expect another impulse lower against BTC to 80 sats and below. But until then watching 89 sats and the wick low on ROSEUSD 👍️️

468

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 01:28

For ROSE we already had this mapped out 👍️️ ROSEBTC just above the 89 sats, ROSEUSD just above the wick lows, sticking to the plan as long as price trades above the 99D SMA (currently 0.08192)

558

$ROSE Trader

19 Dec, 01:23

Risk-plot at daily close so far remains un-changed, despite S&P sell off with a Hawkish Powell.. So eyes on lower timeframe setups

527

$ROSE Trader

18 Dec, 07:21

Remember: BTC, then the rest. We've already had the first leg — that was the breakdown of the BTC.D macro trend. Retesting, then we can expect the second leg. Everything tracking as expected

572

$ROSE Trader

17 Dec, 02:01

Rarely pays chasing those Monday pumps 👍️️ ROSE not ready to rise just yet. Soon... Still long bias into EOY. Possible additional entries: Still watching ROSEBTC 89 sats and below, which is looking more and more attractive — by far the most painless way to hit this level will be BTC pumping (and ROSE lagging, so don't hate the lag). I'd like to buy a touch of 89 sats. If, this is an if, we drop below 89 sats and consolidate below I would anticipate a sweep of the lows before a rise, this would likely look like a sweep of the lows talked about before on ROSEUSD too, but I expect any time below the daily 50EMA to be brief <--- all these things are conditional and should be viewed as opportunities imo. Have to take it step-by-step, plan ahead so you can respond if you start to see it. 170-200 sats marked as my upside target into EOY... But trading it step-by-step 👍️️

635

$ROSE Trader

16 Dec, 01:17

Main thing to watch is the 120-123 sats range. We clear and consolidate above we will see some renewed impulsive moves which should carry us above the 143-144 macro resistance. Otherwise we continue to watch the 123 sats zone for possible rejections, which would signal continued volatile ranging of price

641

$ROSE Trader

16 Dec, 00:59

So far, good with the 0.1048. But watching how we move here — clearing the 4h 50EMA (orange) should see us move to 0.118-0.126. But not expecting a clean rise just yet — I always I like strong moves, anytime but Monday..

618

$ROSE Trader

15 Dec, 00:08

Got the first brush with my area 0.1048 prior to daily close. Shown on the daily (left). Shown on the lower timeframes (right), circled Coinbase market buys continue <--- Hopefully you know by now, I like seeing this. I am expecting price to rise again soon to retest the 120-123 sats range. This CB buying is supporting that move — this is accumulation not distribution

618

$ROSE Trader

14 Dec, 23:55

^^jump back to the linked post for macro context. We can move much higher while it bottoms out (I expect higher rn), this is a macro chart I will keep returning to. Pinned message for macro context too — I expect we can get a shift in the market and risk profile from around the Jan OPEX, that is what I am watching for

633

$ROSE Trader

07 Dec, 23:20

We get excited again with ROSE above this level, 143-144 sats. Confluent with the '24 yearly open on ROSEUSD (0.1373). I've had these targets marked for many months. Until then watching my marked levels, 0.115 and below 👍️️️️️️

309

$ROSE Trader

05 Dec, 22:55

Market wobble from the 5th 🫶️️️️️️ Don't fight the wobble — spot buy the wobble. ROSE holding up so far, I'd be impressed if that's as low as we go. Primary target remains where CB held price around the ~0.115

452

$ROSE Trader

05 Dec, 01:15

^^^ note prices can easily push higher while we bottom (that is sustained risk-on conditions) but once it starts to turn it will turn quickly. I'll be referring back to this post as a reference

556

$ROSE Trader

05 Dec, 01:12

Macro update: just wanted to share the risk plot zoomed out. I was anticipating a lower high AUG-SEP then a risk-on move taking our plot lower and prices higher. This has played out well. We are now shaping the lower low — but credit spreads from here historically don't get much lower. It's hard to pick the timing (we can bottom here for a while — I have Jan OPEX marked as a likely pivot) but the next move will most likely be a higher high. That is the next bear market starting

538

$ROSE Trader

05 Dec, 00:40

Some asking if that was the wobble, so far this is just resistance — wobble would be deeper. First target would be approx ~0.115 and below, targeting the level where Coinbase held price. confluence at 116 sats

488

$ROSE Trader

04 Dec, 03:28

Returning to this post (linked above) — remember: time above the red offset is the exception — we rarely trade there. Every time ROSE has reached the zone between purple and red offsets (from the 99D MA) a significant pullback has followed, even during bullruns. The one exception is SEP 2021 (which is a lot like now). Option 1: we continue up into a blow-off top EOY driven by our CB buyers. Option 2: we get a bit of a wobble beyond the 5th and a short term correction before another leg up. I'm anticipating option 2, but positioned to be very happy with either outcome

664

$ROSE Trader

04 Dec, 02:18

Now at our targets anticipated mid October, Red Mean Multiple offset trading between 12-15c, 2024 yearly open with ROSEBTC at our 143-144 sats level 🤝️️️️ All these things are resistance

535

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 21:26

Yearly open marked, a move above that short term, then we will likely see a sharp retrace follow in the coming days driven by binance. I'll be ready to buy if so 👍️️️️️️

665

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 21:16

up👌

521

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 19:21

Just waking up in AUS, this wick is typical Binance stuff. seeing it this early in a move I expect it to be the launch pad for another move slightly higher (to a little above our yearly open) then watching for signs of a deeper retrace. Bull run = high volatility. Confirming the Binance led move, note that Coinbase only dropped to ~0.115 (so that wick doesn't exist on CB, absorbed with limits). Immediately after our CB buyer tx'd ~1.2M more ROSE off exchange.

580

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 07:28

This pattern on ROSEBTC was projected from November 13 and has so far played out perfectly (move to 95 sats, engulf, consolidate above and launch). I now have alerts set at 143 sats and 89 sats. I don't want to see 89 sats anytime soon, but plan for all things. 143-144 is a major resistance, things can move quickly if we get above that level

542

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 05:03

^^^ Note these levels were our limit mid-year. Should be different this time

614

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 05:00

Viewed in aggregate, long term holder average cost basis across all cohorts back to break-even and even a little profit levels. Welcome back to profit, long term friends 🫶️️️️️️

634

$ROSE Trader

03 Dec, 04:47

CB Entity $ROSE txs off exchange. updated hourly — so this is all in the last 12hrs

588

$ROSE Trader

02 Dec, 22:32

As long as they are buying, the trend is up 🫶️️️️️️ 52 Million ROSE added since election day. Inflows of ~6.5 Million in the last 24hrs

547

$ROSE Trader

30 Nov, 22:06

Purple offset for monthly close 👍️️️️️️ 100% up from entry zone, targets set 6 weeks ago (before and after). Price action looking great but the trader in me takes some chips off the table here.

699

$ROSE Trader

30 Nov, 19:34

CB wallets remain active and supporting price, another 720k in the last 24hrs, 600k in the 24hrs prior to that. ~45 Million added since becoming active again day after election: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_cb_entity.html

658

$ROSE Trader

30 Nov, 19:22

Not much to update — Everything tracking well. Risk profiles still risk-on. New monthly candle tomorrow. If we get a dip, targets already set. Everyone consensus long rn so dip would come as no surprise, otherwise long into EOY. Week of the Jan OPEX marked — caution as we near that date.

658

$ROSE Trader

27 Nov, 20:50

Spotting macro tops: now the Profit Loss metrics are up on my page I'll start sharing some of their uses. This is a key one. First ROSE cycle top was clearly signalled with the wallets in profit metric: first horizontal shows the wallets in profit at ~24c DEC 2021, ~70% of all wallets in profit ---> price moves up, retraces to 24c. The second horizontal marked shows wallets in profit Feb 2022. Back to the same price point but here it has flipped ~70% of all wallets are now in loss — at the same time unrealized loss increased from ~20M USD to ~120M USD (6x). Market is very over weight with top buyers at this point

794

$ROSE Trader

27 Nov, 19:20

Nice reaction from my first level at 0.086-0.087 👍️️️️ -----> IF market gives me the opportunity final buys will be here. I've mentioned many times 89 sats, zone on ROSEUSD aligns with 1 day 50EMA, weekly qaurterly and monthly opens.

692

$ROSE Trader

27 Nov, 05:07

^^Means something near-term, not long-term

762

$ROSE Trader

27 Nov, 04:56

For context, this is how the 100M transfer effects their overall ROSE held

847

$ROSE Trader

27 Nov, 04:24

Why am I excited about huge exchange inflows? Let me explain and don't get me wrong, if it stays on exchange it is there to distribute (sell). But seeing CZ talking about utility over memes, I suspect they distribute into strength over the next 4-6 weeks. If you see my pinned message, this was the plan. Q4 strong, Q1 down. Binance will be holding a bank of utility tokens from binance labs investments. How does this align? A run on utility tokens into Q1 2025 ---> Binance distribute ---> market reverses. A working theory

849

$ROSE Trader

21 Nov, 21:13

Profit and Loss metrics coming: snapshot of realised profits, summary of all wallet cohorts >100k. Note the approximate long term cost basis of each cohort and mid-year price peak

187

$ROSE Trader

20 Nov, 18:43

This is my spread monitor, you can see that consistent red on the bottom, blue on the top on lower tf — this means Binance is consistently trading below Coinbase. With the inflow to Binance exchange, this looks to be a persistent distribution on Binance — a steady flow of market selling. Want to see this even out to signal they are done distributing. They will probably unload in one clip if BTC shows weakness, alternatively they will up the selling into any strength. Market needs to absorb this final unlock

348

$ROSE Trader

20 Nov, 18:38

I'll give a little more context: I don't mind looking to bid this zone around the daily 50EMA (this is my level around the 0.0739), watching this space atm. I am still macro long into the end of year. Just a little more caustious on balance near term. I'll show you why..

344

$ROSE Trader

20 Nov, 17:25

95-98 sats was the test and rn we're getting a push down from that level while we still have large inflows from unlock sitting on exchange, watching reaction at ~0.0739 but a time for caution

341

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 22:53

^^^ this figure is high but not too dramatic, still a definite headwind, we just have to see how it is absorbed now

373

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 22:49

Total tokens unlocked: 176M. Net inflow to exchange over the last 72hrs has been ~24.8M (that is Total net inflow, not just unlock tokens — but there are a few high figure txs that are easy to trace back to unlock wallets). Net inflow chart here: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_exchange.html

376

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 20:14

Unlock: Binance, Coinbase and Kucoin all seeing significant inflows, a good portion of this directly from unlock

446

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 19:11

^^^ it is a good metric for identifying top heavy markets — time to get it back

374

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 19:09

This is a preview of the Wallets in Profit metric, returning soon. Like the token age will break down into wallet cohorts and overall, will also estimate nominal values in-profit and in-loss (based on tx timestamps at ROSEUSD)

372

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 19:02

Our CB wallets have been active, they have added an additional 33.7M ROSE but a bulk of that appears to be secondary market. Smaller transactions reflect market buying which I can track in arbitrage skew, the larger ones appear OTC (this was the same in our first leg up on the left of this chart). But good to see them active👍️️️️️️ http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_cb_entity.html

414

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 18:55

Not much to complain about here, we're consolidating above the quarterly, daily 50EMA and 99D into the highs. Near term we have the head wind of unlock (many tokens have moved onto Binance) — watching this — as above real strength will come when we break up against ROSEBTC chart

354

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 18:47

ROSEBTC doing just as expected, retracing the bodies and showing ROSEBTC 95-98 sats to be the resistance to watch. We want to se behaviour like the blue circle, engulf and up 👍️️️️️️

376

$ROSE Trader

19 Nov, 18:43

Macro charts: risk plot (blue) had a slight tick up post CPI, but still all tracking well — projections on track across BTC and S&P

378

$ROSE Trader

18 Nov, 07:34

^^ As above, we’ve been anticipating this revisit - key now how we respond at this level, 95-98 Sats

429

$ROSE Trader

18 Nov, 07:01

95 Sats 👍

438

$ROSE Trader

18 Nov, 02:45

https://x.com/OasisRoseTrader/status/1858336891135050179

427

$ROSE Trader

18 Nov, 00:03

Been asking some questions for the community, here's what I've had shared with me:
• Dawn Song is still the CEO of Oasis Labs —-> you can find Dawn talking about Oasis Labs PrivateSQL in Forbes in July 2024 (Note: she was never CEO of Oasis Protocol)
• Oasis Labs with Dawn are currently developing a Whitepaper on Ai
• Oasis Labs are collaborating with Oasis Protocol developing ROFL 2.0 (So teams are active and collaborating on core)
• On the VC front: A16z are still advising with Oasis Labs, so still very likely holding their ROSE bags

424

$ROSE Trader

17 Nov, 21:25

High fluctuations promised with Binance driving 👍️️️️️️ have some orders at 0.0739 just incase we get a sharp flush for monday, but rn we're still above the quarterly, still above the daily 50EMA and still above the 99D MA, my indicators still all tracking in the right direction. I suspect we just chop around in a large consolidation until leverage gets flushed out

427

$ROSE Trader

17 Nov, 20:22

The take home message for me from these charts: you still have many large $ROSE holders (VCs etc), some have routinely dumped with each unlock, some still hold. Beyond today (Nov 18) there will be no more VC or contributor unlocks. There is wood to chop with this unlock, but beyond today reinvestment to move the chart becomes much more appealing for those large VCs still holding — the headwind of the routine dumpers will be gone

437

$ROSE Trader

13 Nov, 07:58

We're seeing long daily candle bodies on ROSEBTC, this is typical in times of high volatility — what to watch for next: these long bodies nearly always get retraced in the following days. What I suspect we will see is something like the example in blue here: candle body is retraced, engulfed, continuation. What I don't want to see is the red example: retrace, rejection and a new low — that will lead to a continuation to the down side. I am planning for the first scenario, we rarely leave coinbase imbalances behind so I suspect we a moving back up against BTC in the coming days

368

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 23:07

^^ Just putting this here for anyone else that was wondering

396

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 23:06

COIN50 is structured product like the S&P. A basket of 50 assets (Managed here by Coinbase) that allows new investors to get exposure to crypto without having to learn about crypto -----> Nearly all of the passive investment in stocks happens through structured products. This is a way for fund managers or any investors to add exposure to crypto in their portfolios in the same way

392

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 23:06

Can someone explain what coinbase new index fund is about?

389

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 20:11

^^^ ROSE in top 50 in Coinbase eyes

416

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 20:08

https://fxtwitter.com/OasisRoseTrader/status/1856428790593007657

523

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 08:44

Price up ~60% from buy zone, (~70% if you include that last CB wick 😅️️) Mean multiple limits above. Watching 112 Sats

493

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 08:37

For those new to the channel, this cycle follows Coinbase wicks

425

$ROSE Trader

12 Nov, 08:35

Big CB wicks up 🔥

421

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 20:36

This is one of the charts I always run but rarely show, it is how I monitor the spread between coinbase and Binance (plus a few others) blue above the plot indicates Coinbase trading at a premium (market bids), red below shows coinbase limits stopping price from dropping (absorbing selling). This is a healthy look rn

437

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 20:24

This prediction first set when BTC was trading the lows around 56k, still tracking 👍️️️️️️ follow the risk profiles

422

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 19:06

Posting some content on X, main action remains in here though 🫶️️️️️️

414

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 18:58

https://fxtwitter.com/OasisRoseTrader/status/1856047597779333212

425

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 03:17

Remember the caution about the arb profile from our last move up (linked) — this time it is different — arb profile is all blue. Volatility will increase on lower time frames, but macro I think we are trending now

451

$ROSE Trader

11 Nov, 03:08

My system now sending me update after update, 8 new txs off exchange since Nov 7 (UTC day of election result). 6.8Million $ROSE added so far in this new cluster. This frequency is good, looking like they're back — now holding ~486 Million $ROSE in total. : http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_cb_entity.html

526

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 18:41

shorts ded 🫶️️️️

455

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 18:27

Buys continuing to run steady, another 873k just taken off exchange in recent hours. 3.5M ROSE so far in this cluster, bringing their overall total to 482.6 Million ROSE — keep in mind they have not sold a single ROSE from these wallets, tokens move in and go dormant. This is accumulation. cost basis remains at ~0.11

742

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 18:16

ROSE running beautifully, up ~50% from last buy zone. Mean multiple targets only a small jump up now. Jan OPEX is marked (Have marked the wednesday, OPEX is the 3rd Sat in Jan). OPEX is marked as a likely macro pivot point into 2025 — we have ample time for expansion beyond my mean mulitple targets between now and then.

448

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 18:11

Macro charts: this is all tracking perfectly, S&P probably chops sideways near term post election, BTC volatile upwards (leverage is not your friend)

434

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 10:04

For clarity, I’m not short. Big wicks through key levels suggest to me continuation if price revisits (linked above). We’ll get a long squeeze soon enough, but that wick was to induce short traders, then squeeze

444

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 09:38

@BigCheds telling his 335k retail followers on X to short this ROSE wick. OG approaches have been learnt and turned against us. My approach will have the same fate, but until it decays — try enjoy 👍️️

392

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 05:48

Vol up, BTC up — I think we're good 👍️️️️️️

394

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 03:35

Haha no panic, just a caution flag. Can get false signals in periods of increased vol. just tells me not to add risk here

437

$ROSE Trader

10 Nov, 03:31

Little caution flag: everything tracking well but my monitors are flagging volatility activity that might suggest another flash crash into the new week. a quick flush of longs would be unremarkable rn - no interest in selling my spot - but I wouldn’t be opening any levered longs here. Spot on dips 👍 10-14% down would be the sweet spot if we see a flush

436

$ROSE Trader

09 Nov, 21:11

1,2,3.. regular buys starting again, ~1M tx off each time. Have updated the script to run a little smoother, known wallets updated hourly now: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_cb_entity.html

398

$ROSE Trader

08 Nov, 09:59

No idea who they are or why they are buying, but they are buying — main thing is they want the same thing as us — another 1 million added today to confirmeds wallets, bringing that total to 480Million $ROSE, their cost average sits at 0.1126

447

$ROSE Trader

08 Nov, 07:04

^^^ Big wicks through key levels (see linked post). Watching for a pullback and retest for continuation

458

$ROSE Trader

07 Nov, 20:21

Coinbase 🫶️️ big buys http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_arb.html

569

$ROSE Trader

07 Nov, 17:33

Green arrow: credit spreads continue to tighten, spread plot making a new low rn — risk on — everything still tracking well

473

$ROSE Trader

07 Nov, 17:03

Waking up in AUS, trading ROSE 🫶️️ almost back at the Q4, this was anticipated, selling will pickup around the 0.0757 — watching reactions. FOMC in 2hrs

468

$ROSE Trader

07 Nov, 01:35

I love seeing this while price is rising, that is sustained CB buys above the market: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_arb.html

535

$ROSE Trader

07 Nov, 01:12

👍

493

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 19:40

orders filled in the blue frame, below 0.0585 to monthly marked a significant pivot. Price now consolidating above 99D (red), want to see the 0.06270 range hold now for a push up

546

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 19:23

10Y yield also ripping up more with Trump presidency, this is not a political statement (lost a few followers before lol) this is inflation expectation at the long end of the yield curve. This is what the bond market is pricing

346

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 19:13

^^ looking for this to break above its MA (red) and another impulsive move to start

341

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 19:10

This ridiculous gaddamn indicator somehow still the best thing: http://rosetrader.xyz/rose_invCB.html

348

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 19:07

Just waking up in AUS, S&P gapping up — all on track 👍️️️️️️

331

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 04:58

^^^ make a plan. Inflation spikes again 2025 no matter who wins. But Trump's policies are more inflationary. Long end of the curve has only steepened since rate cuts 🫶️️️️️️

348

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 04:50

Inflow to Binance over recent days: 33M in a single tx in recent hours (>2M$ USD), these are early investors exiting into liquidity (tokens originate from direct foundation txs) ✍️ **these are 2020-2021 investor wallets

360

$ROSE Trader

06 Nov, 01:27

Macro plan one month on 👍️️️️️️ options market hedged for 2 weeks beyond beyond election anticipating contested election — happy election days eveyone. Had a busy past week but will be following closely from AUS

371

$ROSE Trader

31 Oct, 20:55

Green arrow: S&P and BTC dip below Q4 opens, but credit spreads only tightening, no real panic rn. NFP Nov 1, election Nov 5 = volatility. Plan remains the same

673

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 23:01

Another CB wick — this is what late 2023 into early 2024 looked like too. Keep these coming 🫶️️

711

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 19:26

Last phase was driven by Binance (orange square), cautioned about this. Profile now flipping towards CB 👍️️️️️️

700

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 19:23

👌

644

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 10:32

Boom💥 CB already hit the quarterly, wicking up again to 0.07829

1,507

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 00:49

If we get a rejection from the 99D, 0.0585 and below - but liking this move and timing so far

372

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 00:22

Risk profile still looking healthy, no red flags from the credit market. Election day marked

369

$ROSE Trader

29 Oct, 00:21

Been pretty pin-point on each major move, I haven't been as active intraday but that is because I have been planning for the larger moves that are likely to come as we move into EOY and beyond the election. We are at the 99D, once back above we should rise quickly to the Q4 open then look to flip it to support

365

$ROSE Trader

28 Oct, 22:22

^^ if you’ve been following the channel for a while you’ll know that market usually follows CB wicks, up or down. Good for informing near-term directional bias

365

$ROSE Trader

28 Oct, 22:06

And up into CB wick 👍

363

$ROSE Trader

28 Oct, 13:23

Coinbase wicks up, much better to see than coinbase wicks down

372

$ROSE Trader

26 Oct, 04:06

Market selling driven by Binance 👍️️️️️️ this should come as no surprise

511

$ROSE Trader

26 Oct, 03:50

Here's the 4h breakdown: 99D is always a very important level to watch for ROSE. Price has been structured around it for the past month. As soon as it loses the 99D with BTC showing weakness (red highlight) we get the straight drop. A more subtle signal, but indicative of the way I trade on lower time frames: I have highlighted two significant wicks in yellow, when we get those long wicks into key levels --> then price revisits, that is normally a sign that we are going to break the level. In this case the key level is the 99D, Imagine what traders typically do when they see those long wicks into support or resistance, then watch what market makers do: wicks up then breaks up in the late september where highlighted. Wicks down then breaks down in the one this week

483

$ROSE Trader

26 Oct, 02:30

Dip, traded below 99D then straight drop to frame. Now we want to see the bid build again from here into the election 👍️️️️️️ Any wicks below that lower monthly open (Sep) we want to see quickly bought, if we get there. Three orders laddered in this zone, first already filled. Next orders waiting just below the weekly and the monthly

468

$ROSE Trader

22 Oct, 20:42

This blue here on the arb monitor is Binance flipping to sell-side above the Q4 (heavy market selling here gets arbitraged to CB) — Binance bought it up, and they sell it down, rinsing leveraged + breakout traders. Moving fast through this zone below the Q4 now produces an imbalance for price to revisit after a dip, this is why I feel confident dips will be bought, and rise back to the Q4 soon enough.

629

$ROSE Trader

22 Oct, 20:34

Don't chase pumps when Binance are driving. Q4 open will break, dips will be bought

624

$ROSE Trader

20 Oct, 22:50

It is notable that these pre-election moves in October are being almost entirely driven by Binance buyers. All the sustained rises for ROSE in '23-'24 were driven by Coinbase. Don't trade leverage when Binance are driving things — just add spot on the dips

709

$ROSE Trader

19 Oct, 00:09

ROSE rn moving between our key levels: Q4 open at 0.077 and 99D. If we hold above the 99D we move up, if we lose the 99D I'll be looking for another opportunity below the 0.0627. Any impulsive move up into EOY I'll be watching the purple and red offsets circled (rn at 0.11 and 0.13), these will track up as we move but the 12-15c range will be confluent with ROSE trading back at ~144 sats, assuming BTC behaves. If ROSE breaks above 144 sats, that will be much more fun but I'll still be watching mid-jan as my horizon

847

$ROSE Trader

18 Oct, 23:00

BTC and S&P into mid-jan 2025: macro this is the zone I am watching, so far the the move has been tracking well with risk profile continuing to support the rise. Approx. 2 weeks until election, volatility events are an opportunity to add on dips imo (will update ROSE chart shortly). As previously noted, personally I am not looking to hold much past EOY, and not past Jan OPEX: 17th-18th January. From that point I prefer to be activily trading rather than hodling. Will let you know if that opinion shifts

657

$ROSE Trader

14 Oct, 21:11

Been afk with family but you know I am long from the dip. A simple recap of the last 24hrs of price action: we were looking for close above 99D MA, we got it, then a clean retest of the 99D MA (red) supported by the 4h 50EMA (orange), strong confluence for another move up as bias was already long 👍

874

$ROSE Trader

12 Oct, 06:37

👌

890

$ROSE Trader

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