Market Review / Outlook of the day
Primary Sentiment : Positive
Immediate Trend : Positive
BMD Market Re-cap:
- Malaysian palm oil continued its upward trajectory for a fourth consecutive day, reaching their highest level since July 2022, driven by a tight supply outlook. This has raised concerns about food inflation in countries from India to China.
- Traders identified several factors contributing to the bullish momentum in palm oil, including weaker production, lower overall Malaysian stockpiles, geopolitical tensions, and the expectation of easing monetary policies.
- Oil prices retreated by approximately 1% in volatile trading on Thursday, following reports that the U.S. and Israel would attempt to resume negotiations for a potential ceasefire in Gaza.
- Malaysia raised the export tax on crude palm oil to 9.5% for November, the first increase in more than three years.
World Oil and Grains
- CBOT soybean futures edged lower on Thursday, as the bearish impact of ample supply outweighed the bullish influence of strong export sales and beneficial rainfall for South American crops.
- Weather analysts anticipate that recent rainfall in Argentina's prime agricultural region will continue through November, enabling normal soybean planting.
- The USDA disclosed soybean export sales for the week ending 17th October at 2,151,700 metric tons, approaching the upper limit of the projected range of 1,200,000 to 2,400,000 tons.
- The USDA also reported private sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown buyers.
Base and Precious Metals
- Zinc prices in London reached their highest level in over two decades on Thursday, driven by a surge in the key spread on the LME exchange. However, rising LME inventories and sluggish demand in China, the world's largest metals consumer, limited the upside gains.
- The premium for cash LME zinc over the benchmark three-month contract surged to $58 per ton on Wednesday, the highest level since September 2022. It had retreated to $25 by Thursday.
- Gold futures climbed by almost 1% on Thursday, approaching record levels, driven by safe-haven demand fueled by ongoing geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, palladium prices surged by 9% amid concerns about potential supply sanctions on Russia, a major producer.
- Anticipation of additional monetary policy easing by central banks and gold's traditional role as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty have propelled prices up by over 32% year-to-date, reaching multiple record highs.
Market Outlook
- Palm oil encountered multiple resistance levels yesterday but managed to break above RM4,500, continuing its upward trajectory and closing near RM4,600. The price opened at RM4,478, traded within a range of RM4,451 to RM4,610, and settled at RM4,486. Strong buying pressure from buyers overwhelmed sellers during this frenzied trading activity. However, the excessive speculative buying may lead to an overbought situation, increasing the risk of a potential pullback.
- Palm oil is expected to open higher today, influenced by the increase in Dalian palm oil futures and the gains in U.S. soybean oil. The immediate resistance level has been revised upward to RM4,700, and traders should exercise caution due to the excessive buying activity, which may lead to a potential price correction.
Opening range: 4610 to 4620
Projected range of the day: 4450 to 4700
Resistance 4700 Next 4800
Support 4400 Next 4350
BMD FCPO Total Open Interest
11/10/2024: 252,079 (+528)
14/10/2024: 251,084 (-995)
15/10/2024: 248,273 (-2,811)
16/10/2024: 252,845 (+4,572)
17/10/2024: 263,707 (+10,862)
18/10/2024: 258,075 (-5,632)
21/10/2024: 255,657 (-2,418)
22/10/2024: 254,456 (-1,201)
23/10/2024: 257,024 (+2,568)
24/10/2024: 259,382 (+2,358)