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🇺🇸 US JOBLESS CLAIMS 📈

Today's US unemployment rate release is due shortly! Will the labor market surprise or stay steady?

Stay tuned for key insights on the market!

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📊Daily Market Analysis



🇺🇸 USD: Dollar Maintains Gains

The DXY index continues to climb as markets move away from expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, only 8 bps of easing is priced in. Key drivers:

1. Higher Yields: US 1-week deposits offer a 4.61% return, second only to GBP at 4.74%, making USD an attractive holding for investors.


2. Trump Administration 2.0: Market anticipation of a Republican-led government and global economic uncertainties favor the dollar.



The market views Kevin Warsh, a former Fed member, as the frontrunner for Treasury Secretary. His prior experience during the 2008 financial crisis makes him a “safe” choice for markets.

Outlook:

The DXY is expected to remain within the 106-107 range, supported by geopolitical developments in Ukraine and ECB commentary.

US data releases, including jobless claims, are unlikely to impact markets significantly today.



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🇪🇺EUR: Pressured by Geopolitics and Trump Policies

The EUR/USD remains weak, with risks stemming from:

1. Ukraine War: Escalation ahead of potential ceasefire talks in 2024 weighs on European currencies, amplified by higher natural gas prices. Current gas inventories are below the 5-year average, recalling the damaging price spikes of 2022.


2. Trump's Tariff Proposals: ECB policymakers are divided over the inflationary impact of tariffs. While hawkish members emphasize significant effects, dovish members downplay concerns.



ECB Outlook:

Markets anticipate a 30-bps rate cut at the December meeting.

With broad swap differentials favoring the dollar, EUR/USD is expected to remain weak, likely trading between 1.0560-1.0600.


Upcoming European PMI data tomorrow will also play a key role.


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🇨🇭 CHF: Safe-Haven Demand Supports Franc

The EUR/CHF trades near multi-year lows at 0.93, driven by:

1. Geopolitical Risks: The war in Ukraine and rising gas prices boost demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc.


2. SNB Policy: While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to consider negative rates, expectations of ECB rate cuts by 150 bps by mid-2025 add downward pressure on EUR/CHF.



Outlook:

EUR/CHF could decline further toward 0.92, especially if the SNB signals stability or hints at maintaining rates.

The franc benefits from both geopolitical and economic risk aversion.



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🟡 GOLD: Safe-Haven Rally Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to rise, reaching a 1.5-week high around $2,665. Key factors driving the rally:

1. Geopolitical Risks: Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war fuels demand for safe-haven assets.


2. Weaker USD: A modest pullback in the dollar supports commodities.


3. Trump's Tariff Proposals: Expectations of inflationary pressures from tariffs could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, boosting US Treasury yields.



Outlook:

While safe-haven demand supports gold, rising Treasury yields and positive economic sentiment may limit aggressive bullish bets.

Upcoming US macroeconomic data and Fed speeches will be key for determining gold's next move.


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📌Summary

USD: Supported by higher yields and geopolitical risks; likely to stay in the 106-107 range.

EUR: Pressured by geopolitical uncertainties and ECB policy divergence.

CHF: Safe-haven demand keeps the franc strong; EUR/CHF likely to test 0.92.

GOLD: Geopolitical risks drive gains, but rising yields cap further upside.

EUR/USD: Euro so far successfully defending the critical level of 1.0500 but risk of collapse remain high

The single European currency remains above the critical level of 1.05 with investors being conservative enough to take further large bets in favor of the US currency, but on the other hand, so far there is no catalyst on the table that is capable of changing the trend.

For almost the sixth consecutive day, the pair is trapped between levels 1,05 - 1,06, trying to digest these levels looking for the trigger for the next move.

Yesterday, without providing any significant surprises from several statements by Fed and ECB officials, kept the American currency in the spotlight as geopolitical risk remains at extremely dangerous levels.

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