On November 21st, I shared a detailed analysis of the past three years of Natural Gas movements, along with projections for upcoming higher levels. Both USA NG and MCX prices were emphasized for their importance. Fast forward a month, and the levels worked out precisely as expected.
USA NG: Hit a high of $3.616—exactly as marked as a reference level.
MCX NG: Reached ₹334, holding strong after an auction around the ₹270 area. This resulted in a 19-24% rally for USA NG and MCX NG, respectively.
We exited the trade yesterday, booking full gains as our trailing stop-loss (TSL) was triggered. At this point, we're not chasing further moves. How did you navigate this rally—executed well or missed out?
Note on Commodities:
Commodities, like Natural Gas, have a unique ability to shift behavior rapidly. Even hedge funds have struggled to profit consistently in this space, with many blowing out major funds in the past 10-15 years across various commodity instruments. Natural Gas stands out as one of the most volatile.
This is not a market for small capital players. (I shared a thread earlier advising against unnecessary trades in commodities.) Proceed with caution, as the stakes are high, and the dynamics can change in an instant.