✅ Those who took the risk - are in the profit)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
@tu_fx_trading_ideas_en
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Kharitonov FX Trading (EN) (English)
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Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
29 Dec, 20:07
BTC/USD looks alarming again)) But this is not a call to sell, but only a warning))
Here we see a series of decreasing peaks, and the inability of the bulls to return above 100K should also be considered a negative factor.
Here we see a series of decreasing peaks, and the inability of the bulls to return above 100K should also be considered a negative factor.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
29 Dec, 19:55
USD, despite the situation with the US debt, is likely to end the year with growth across the entire market spectrum. The threat of default is far from the first time, so the markets are used to these situations and practically do not react to them.
This cannot last forever, but this time it is unlikely to expect catastrophic consequences for the US. Moreover, Trump's new team intends to reduce government spending, although they are unlikely to be the first to try to solve the problem, which still remains unresolved, and the government debt continues to grow. In this regard, it is difficult to make forecasts, so we can only wait for what further developments will be.
EUR/USD is trading below 1.0450, which indicates the risks of a decline back to the support of 1.0350-1.0330, although the situation with the government debt, as well as the uncertainty regarding Trump's actions, may become a reason for investors to be cautious about the USD, and it may weaken somewhat before Trump takes office.
This cannot last forever, but this time it is unlikely to expect catastrophic consequences for the US. Moreover, Trump's new team intends to reduce government spending, although they are unlikely to be the first to try to solve the problem, which still remains unresolved, and the government debt continues to grow. In this regard, it is difficult to make forecasts, so we can only wait for what further developments will be.
EUR/USD is trading below 1.0450, which indicates the risks of a decline back to the support of 1.0350-1.0330, although the situation with the government debt, as well as the uncertainty regarding Trump's actions, may become a reason for investors to be cautious about the USD, and it may weaken somewhat before Trump takes office.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Dec, 12:54
What to watch: USD/JPY continues to recover after falling to the 140.00 area.
A narrowing interest rate differential and a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its next meeting could trigger selling of the pair, but before that, bulls could push it towards the psychological 160.00 level, where selling should be considered.
Profit-taking on long positions should also not be ruled out either after the New Year or closer to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Those who are prone to risky trades and are ready for a hold should consider selling at current levels.
Potential targets: 156.00 and 155.00.
A narrowing interest rate differential and a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its next meeting could trigger selling of the pair, but before that, bulls could push it towards the psychological 160.00 level, where selling should be considered.
Profit-taking on long positions should also not be ruled out either after the New Year or closer to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Those who are prone to risky trades and are ready for a hold should consider selling at current levels.
Potential targets: 156.00 and 155.00.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Dec, 12:12
☝️Today, data on the US Unemployment Claims will be published. In conditions of low market activity, the reaction of market participants to this data will be very weak, and the main currency pairs will continue to trade in narrow ranges.
As I have repeatedly said, almost always during the Christmas and New Year holidays, volatility in the currency market drops significantly, and any movements can hardly be called informative.
At this stage, the USD may be in moderate demand, there are still no reasons for a trend reversal, but until liquidity is restored in the currency market, it is better to refrain from opening new positions.
As I have repeatedly said, almost always during the Christmas and New Year holidays, volatility in the currency market drops significantly, and any movements can hardly be called informative.
At this stage, the USD may be in moderate demand, there are still no reasons for a trend reversal, but until liquidity is restored in the currency market, it is better to refrain from opening new positions.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
24 Dec, 18:04
The Dow Jones 30 crashed well below the 43,000 level but was bought back on the decline and is now trading above that level.
I always say that a dip in the stock markets is an opportunity to buy at a better price!
I always say that a dip in the stock markets is an opportunity to buy at a better price!
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
24 Dec, 13:21
☝️Today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events that could trigger a surge in volatility. However, until the end of the week, and even until the end of this year, volatility may remain low, and the main currency pairs will continue to trade in ranges, and only the emergence of important news/events, which is unlikely, can revive the currency market.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
23 Dec, 20:24
EUR/AUD: the pair is trading near a strong resistance area. The AUD sell-off was facilitated by the poor economic outlook for China, anti-risk sentiment and falling copper prices. The latter may find support at current levels, investors will sooner or later start buying up risky assets, EUR is in a vulnerable position, so EUR/AUD may be sold again.
Sales currently look attractive, but move towards 0.6800-0.6875 is still possible.
Sales currently look attractive, but move towards 0.6800-0.6875 is still possible.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
22 Dec, 22:39
GBP/USD: the British pound was bought out for the US dollar on the fall to the support of 1.2480, after testing which the resistance of 1.2560 was broken and the level of 1.2610 was tested.
At the moment, the pair has rolled back to the now support of 1.2560/40, above which there will be chances for a retest of the resistance of 1.2610.
The loss of support will lead to a decline to 1.2520-1.2500, where GBP/USD may be bought out.
At the moment, the pair has rolled back to the now support of 1.2560/40, above which there will be chances for a retest of the resistance of 1.2610.
The loss of support will lead to a decline to 1.2520-1.2500, where GBP/USD may be bought out.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
22 Dec, 22:28
EUR/USD: On Friday, the euro's decline against the US dollar was stopped by support around 1.0345. After testing it, the pair recouped losses, as a result of which the resistance of 1.0420 was broken and the level of 1.0445 was tested.
Now the level of 1.0420 acts as support, above which there are still chances of breaking through the current resistance and growth towards 1.0460-1.0480, where the EUR/USD can be sold again.
In the short term, consolidation in the range is possible.
Now the level of 1.0420 acts as support, above which there are still chances of breaking through the current resistance and growth towards 1.0460-1.0480, where the EUR/USD can be sold again.
In the short term, consolidation in the range is possible.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Dec, 21:16
EUR/USD: the situation in the pair remains negative for the bulls. Having resumed its decline, the pair returned to strong support in the 1.0345-1.0330 region.
Considering the fact that the pair is not oversold and its prospects do not inspire optimism, the risks of this support can be assessed as high, but an upward rebound should not be ruled out.
Nevertheless, for me, at current levels, neither buying nor selling looks attractive. I would prefer selling on the rise towards 1.0420-1.0460, or moderate buying on the decline towards 1.0300.
Considering the fact that the pair is not oversold and its prospects do not inspire optimism, the risks of this support can be assessed as high, but an upward rebound should not be ruled out.
Nevertheless, for me, at current levels, neither buying nor selling looks attractive. I would prefer selling on the rise towards 1.0420-1.0460, or moderate buying on the decline towards 1.0300.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Dec, 20:33
The Fed cut the rate by 25 bps, USD continues to be in demand.
❗️❗️But the main point in this story is Jerome Powell's words that the Fed cannot keep BTC on its balance sheet. These words provoked a sell-off and may become a reason for a larger collapse, since they "cross out" the plans of Trump and the new administration to create a BTC reserve.
❗️❗️But the main point in this story is Jerome Powell's words that the Fed cannot keep BTC on its balance sheet. These words provoked a sell-off and may become a reason for a larger collapse, since they "cross out" the plans of Trump and the new administration to create a BTC reserve.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Dec, 20:29
✅ As predicted, support is broken. The nearest target is 20000
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Dec, 19:36
☝️What to pay attention to: USD/CAD is heavily overbought. Current levels look attractive for sales with targets at 1.4300-1.4200.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Dec, 15:08
❗️So, the US Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision today.
A 25 bp cut is expected, which could cause a negative market reaction against the USD.
However, against the backdrop of expectations of "Trump tariffs" that could trigger an acceleration of inflation and become a reason either to keep the rate unchanged in the foreseeable future or to raise it, any negative caused by the Fed's rate cut will not last long, and the USD decline could be used for purchases.
A 25 bp cut is expected, which could cause a negative market reaction against the USD.
However, against the backdrop of expectations of "Trump tariffs" that could trigger an acceleration of inflation and become a reason either to keep the rate unchanged in the foreseeable future or to raise it, any negative caused by the Fed's rate cut will not last long, and the USD decline could be used for purchases.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Dec, 19:02
DOW JONES 30 is actively selling off, but there is no point in talking about a trend reversal yet.
The sales are most likely related to expectations of "Trump tariffs", as well as profit-taking in anticipation of his inauguration, and, perhaps, with the movement of capital into crypto.
However, there is usually a Christmas rally in December, and historically and statistically, it so happened that a fall in stocks is ALWAYS used for purchases, so this fall can also attract bulls.
At current levels, purchases look quite risky, but in the event of a decline towards 43,000, I will think about opening a long position. Those who are prone to wild risk - buy at current levels)
The sales are most likely related to expectations of "Trump tariffs", as well as profit-taking in anticipation of his inauguration, and, perhaps, with the movement of capital into crypto.
However, there is usually a Christmas rally in December, and historically and statistically, it so happened that a fall in stocks is ALWAYS used for purchases, so this fall can also attract bulls.
At current levels, purchases look quite risky, but in the event of a decline towards 43,000, I will think about opening a long position. Those who are prone to wild risk - buy at current levels)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Dec, 18:53
✅Well, for some reason I'm not surprised))
Whoever is "in the short" - stop-loss at breakeven, close half/all.
Whoever is "in the short" - stop-loss at breakeven, close half/all.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Dec, 13:56
✅The GER40 index has reached our immediate target. Overall, the 20260 support may be broken and the index will continue to decline towards 20100-20000. Possibly after some consolidation.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Dec, 19:42
This week, in addition to the Fed, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged, but it may be raised at the next meeting.
At this stage, USD/JPY is showing a positive mood, which is due to demand for the dollar after Donald Trump's victory, but with expectations of a rate hike, the yen may be bought back on the fall and the dollar will come under pressure.
Since the pair is quite volatile, trading it is associated with increased risk. Those who accept the risk should consider selling at current levels, those who avoid very risky transactions should consider selling in case of growth towards 155.80-156.40.
☝️Risks: speculators will not "play off" a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
At this stage, USD/JPY is showing a positive mood, which is due to demand for the dollar after Donald Trump's victory, but with expectations of a rate hike, the yen may be bought back on the fall and the dollar will come under pressure.
Since the pair is quite volatile, trading it is associated with increased risk. Those who accept the risk should consider selling at current levels, those who avoid very risky transactions should consider selling in case of growth towards 155.80-156.40.
☝️Risks: speculators will not "play off" a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Dec, 10:19
Today's macroeconomic calendar also does not contain any important events.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce rates decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 bps. Despite this, the USD may continue to enjoy moderate demand, and EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and its other competitors may remain vulnerable, while large-scale movements in the near future are unlikely.
Ukraine stops transiting Russian gas, which may lead to price growth. At the moment, gas is under pressure, but in view of this event, its decline can be used for purchases.
The DAX index has updated its highs, but it seems that the weakness of the German economy, the threat of tariffs on EU goods, and other factors will still have a negative impact on its dynamics and we will see a more noticeable correction.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce rates decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 bps. Despite this, the USD may continue to enjoy moderate demand, and EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and its other competitors may remain vulnerable, while large-scale movements in the near future are unlikely.
Ukraine stops transiting Russian gas, which may lead to price growth. At the moment, gas is under pressure, but in view of this event, its decline can be used for purchases.
The DAX index has updated its highs, but it seems that the weakness of the German economy, the threat of tariffs on EU goods, and other factors will still have a negative impact on its dynamics and we will see a more noticeable correction.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
13 Dec, 10:24
☝️Today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events, or rather, none at all. Thus, we are in for another dreary trading session, where the main currency pairs may continue to consolidate in ranges.
Gold sales from $1,725 per ounce indicate the current weakness of the bulls and the risks of testing the support of 2650-2620.
Despite the fall of DJ30, SP500, the slowdown of the German economy and the Bundesbank's downgrade of the forecast for the period up to 2026, as well as in anticipation of possible US duties on European goods and the weak auto industry of Germany, the DAX maintains positive dynamics, which contradicts logic and common sense.
American WTI oil once again refrained from breaking through support and was bought out again, and this despite the fact that there is relative calm in the Middle East. The rally could still be used for selling, but another bounce from support casts doubt on the bears' ability to maintain control of the situation.
Gold sales from $1,725 per ounce indicate the current weakness of the bulls and the risks of testing the support of 2650-2620.
Despite the fall of DJ30, SP500, the slowdown of the German economy and the Bundesbank's downgrade of the forecast for the period up to 2026, as well as in anticipation of possible US duties on European goods and the weak auto industry of Germany, the DAX maintains positive dynamics, which contradicts logic and common sense.
American WTI oil once again refrained from breaking through support and was bought out again, and this despite the fact that there is relative calm in the Middle East. The rally could still be used for selling, but another bounce from support casts doubt on the bears' ability to maintain control of the situation.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
12 Dec, 19:21
US30 and GER40 - am I the only one who thinks it's time to dump the German?))
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
28 Nov, 18:10
USD/SGD: during the previous decline, the pair failed to reach the second target in the form of support around 1.3353 and, having resumed growth, tested the resistance at 1.3510, after which it declined again.
As a result, a series of descending peaks formed, which suggests testing 1.3400, and in case of breaking through this level - support at 1.3353.
Nevertheless, we should not exclude a rebound on the approach to 1.3400.
As a result, a series of descending peaks formed, which suggests testing 1.3400, and in case of breaking through this level - support at 1.3353.
Nevertheless, we should not exclude a rebound on the approach to 1.3400.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
28 Nov, 08:23
USCRUDE: The growth of oil reserves in the US, in addition to the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, added negativity to the dynamics of oil futures, so the pressure on US WTI still remains, and against this background, the bears are currently testing the support in the region of $68.50 per barrel again.
The probability of its breakthrough is quite high, and in this case we should expect a decline to the support of 67.00 at least.
☝️Breaking through 69.00 will lead to growth towards 70.00-70.50 dollars per barrel.
The probability of its breakthrough is quite high, and in this case we should expect a decline to the support of 67.00 at least.
☝️Breaking through 69.00 will lead to growth towards 70.00-70.50 dollars per barrel.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
27 Nov, 11:49
What to pay attention to: despite a significant reduction in profits of German automakers - BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Audi, the German GER40 index is still trading relatively close to the highs, which is somewhat contrary to logic.
Thus, one should consider selling on an attempt to grow towards 19250-19300, those who are risk-averse and ready for a hold can consider selling at current levels.
Potential targets: 19000, 18900.
Thus, one should consider selling on an attempt to grow towards 19250-19300, those who are risk-averse and ready for a hold can consider selling at current levels.
Potential targets: 19000, 18900.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
27 Nov, 11:04
Key events today: the publication of the personal consumer spending price index and durable goods orders data.
Market participants' attention will be focused more on the PCE index, the growth of which could theoretically support the USD, and the decline - pressure.
In practice, the impact of these data is unlikely to be significant, and at this stage, the main currency pairs will either continue to consolidate in ranges, or the USD's competitors will continue to recover.
Overall, the upward trend for the dollar remains relevant.
Market participants' attention will be focused more on the PCE index, the growth of which could theoretically support the USD, and the decline - pressure.
In practice, the impact of these data is unlikely to be significant, and at this stage, the main currency pairs will either continue to consolidate in ranges, or the USD's competitors will continue to recover.
Overall, the upward trend for the dollar remains relevant.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
27 Nov, 08:21
✅ All goals completed 👍, now there can be a fight for support 151.30
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Nov, 22:06
AUD/USD: the pair continues to be bought out from support in the 0.6450/35 area, which increases the chances of another rebound towards 0.6500-0.6525, which could be facilitated by investors' continued risk appetite (and growth in stock indices).
☝️Loss of support will lead to a decline towards 0.6400-0.6350, where bulls may also become more active.
☝️Loss of support will lead to a decline towards 0.6400-0.6350, where bulls may also become more active.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Nov, 21:57
☝️Overall, given the interest rate differential, JPY may remain vulnerable, and a decline in USD/JPY towards the above levels could be used for buying.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Nov, 21:36
USD/JPY: having broken through support around 153.50, the pair returned to support at 153.00, which increases the likelihood of breaking through it and further decline, where the immediate target could be support at 152.80, and if it is broken through, support at 152.00.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Nov, 11:48
What to pay attention to: DJ30 is trading at historical highs, and this is despite the fact that Trump intends to raise tariffs on all goods from Canada, Mexico and China.
During the last presidency, Trump's declaration of a "trade war" against China provoked a massive drop in stock markets, which may happen this time.
DJ30 may well move to 45,000, where you should consider selling. Those who are more inclined to risk should consider opening a short position at current levels.
☝️ Given the high volatility of the instrument and the risk of an unjustified continuation of the rally, you should open a position with a small volume and be prepared to hold it.
During the last presidency, Trump's declaration of a "trade war" against China provoked a massive drop in stock markets, which may happen this time.
DJ30 may well move to 45,000, where you should consider selling. Those who are more inclined to risk should consider opening a short position at current levels.
☝️ Given the high volatility of the instrument and the risk of an unjustified continuation of the rally, you should open a position with a small volume and be prepared to hold it.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
25 Nov, 21:50
USD/CHF: The US dollar is under pressure against the Swiss franc, which is why it has fallen to the support of 0.8855.
This decline occurred mainly against the backdrop of a decline in the EUR/CHF cross rate, so it is too early to talk about a reversal of the upward trend.
Thus, a decline towards 0.8820-0.8800 can be considered as an opportunity to buy; a breakout of the last level will increase pressure on the pair and lead to a decline towards 0.8780-0.8760.
This decline occurred mainly against the backdrop of a decline in the EUR/CHF cross rate, so it is too early to talk about a reversal of the upward trend.
Thus, a decline towards 0.8820-0.8800 can be considered as an opportunity to buy; a breakout of the last level will increase pressure on the pair and lead to a decline towards 0.8780-0.8760.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
25 Nov, 21:38
GBP/USD: having broken through resistance at 1.2540, the pair rose to resistance at 1.2615, where it was sold again.
The 1.2540 level now acts as support, and at this stage the pair is in a consolidation phase.
In the short term, range trading can be considered, but I think it is more attractive to either sell in case of a breakout of resistance on the rise to 1.2650-1.2680, or buy in case of a breakout of support and a decline to the 1.2500 area.
The 1.2540 level now acts as support, and at this stage the pair is in a consolidation phase.
In the short term, range trading can be considered, but I think it is more attractive to either sell in case of a breakout of resistance on the rise to 1.2650-1.2680, or buy in case of a breakout of support and a decline to the 1.2500 area.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
25 Nov, 21:26
EUR/USD: the pair broke resistance around 1.0450 and even briefly rose above 1.0500, but was quite logically sold off again.
In the near term, in the absence of fresh market drivers, it may continue to consolidate between 1.0450 and 1.0550-1.0600.
At the moment, it is difficult to choose between selling and buying, so I would prefer to sell on the rise towards 1.0600-1.0650, or buy on the decline towards 1.0400-1.0350.
In the near term, in the absence of fresh market drivers, it may continue to consolidate between 1.0450 and 1.0550-1.0600.
At the moment, it is difficult to choose between selling and buying, so I would prefer to sell on the rise towards 1.0600-1.0650, or buy on the decline towards 1.0400-1.0350.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
25 Nov, 10:55
☝️Today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events that could trigger a surge in volatility.
The USD growth currently looks somewhat exaggerated, so some correction/consolidation is possible. The USD decline can still be used for purchases, but the current levels in the main currency pairs do not look comfortable for this.
Gold is currently under pressure after an impressive growth, but the bulls may try to return its price above $2,700 per ounce, where we will consider the possibility of selling it.
Oil is recouping losses, but the relative calm in the Middle East and the intention of future US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to increase US oil production by 3 million barrels per day may limit the upward potential.
The USD growth currently looks somewhat exaggerated, so some correction/consolidation is possible. The USD decline can still be used for purchases, but the current levels in the main currency pairs do not look comfortable for this.
Gold is currently under pressure after an impressive growth, but the bulls may try to return its price above $2,700 per ounce, where we will consider the possibility of selling it.
Oil is recouping losses, but the relative calm in the Middle East and the intention of future US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to increase US oil production by 3 million barrels per day may limit the upward potential.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
22 Nov, 08:07
✅The second goal has also been achieved.
It was not for nothing that I had doubts - the resistance of 2680 was also broken. For now, "out of the market".
It was not for nothing that I had doubts - the resistance of 2680 was also broken. For now, "out of the market".
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 22:01
GBP/USD: bulls failed to break through resistance at 1.2700-1.2710, which inspired bears to break through support at 1.2680.
Moreover, they managed to break through strong support at 1.2615, as a result of which GBP/USD dropped to 1.2578. Pullbacks are limited by resistance at 1.2605, which indicates risks of a decline to the next support area, which begins around 1.2540.
☝️ A return above 1.2605/20 will allow bulls to test 1.2650-1.2660.
Moreover, they managed to break through strong support at 1.2615, as a result of which GBP/USD dropped to 1.2578. Pullbacks are limited by resistance at 1.2605, which indicates risks of a decline to the next support area, which begins around 1.2540.
☝️ A return above 1.2605/20 will allow bulls to test 1.2650-1.2660.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 21:42
EUR/USD: the bulls failed to break through the resistance around 1.0600 and failed to hold the pair above 1.0500. Breaking this support opened the way to the bulls' last line of defense - support around 1.0450.
From this support, bulls may try to take over the initiative and testing the 1.0500 level, which will now act as resistance. A confident break of 1.0450 may open the way towards 1.0300.
From this support, bulls may try to take over the initiative and testing the 1.0500 level, which will now act as resistance. A confident break of 1.0450 may open the way towards 1.0300.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 16:53
❗️According to Xinhua, China has discovered gold deposits worth more than $83 billion - the end of the upward trend? Not a fact, but possible)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 14:07
EURNZD: Another rebound from the support around 1.7910 will allow euro bulls to test the resistance of 1.7960-1.7975 against the New Zealand dollar, but after that the pair returned to the support of 1.7910, which will increase the risks of its breakout and decline towards 1.7860-1.7840; The passage of the resistance of 1.7960 led to growth towards the psychological level of 1.8000.
☝️Risks: the recovery of the euro and/or the return of "anti-risk" sentiments may trigger NZD sell-offs.
☝️Risks: the recovery of the euro and/or the return of "anti-risk" sentiments may trigger NZD sell-offs.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 09:49
EURAUD: The pair has formed another "lowering peak", has broken through the support of 1.6170 at the moment, which suggests a decline towards the psychological level of 1.6000 at least.
A breakout of the resistance of 1.6240 will weaken the bears' positions, but growth above can still be used for sales.
A breakout of the resistance of 1.6240 will weaken the bears' positions, but growth above can still be used for sales.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Nov, 08:39
Key events today: US initial jobless claims and Japanese inflation data (in Asian session).
US data will not have a significant impact on USD dynamics, but on the rise in claims it may continue to grow; a decline in claims may exert moderate pressure.
Accelerating inflation in Japan may trigger speculation about the Bank of Japan raising the interest rate and support the JPY; on the slowdown in inflation the JPY may come under pressure.
US data will not have a significant impact on USD dynamics, but on the rise in claims it may continue to grow; a decline in claims may exert moderate pressure.
Accelerating inflation in Japan may trigger speculation about the Bank of Japan raising the interest rate and support the JPY; on the slowdown in inflation the JPY may come under pressure.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
20 Nov, 15:30
Gold, as I predicted, continues to grow, and at the moment the bulls have broken through the resistance in the area of $2640 per ounce, which suggests growth to 2480.
Theoretically, growth towards this level should be used for sales, but against the backdrop of nuclear threats from the Russian Federation, although their implementation is unlikely, I have doubts...
☝️At this stage, it is better to refrain from opening new positions in gold.
Theoretically, growth towards this level should be used for sales, but against the backdrop of nuclear threats from the Russian Federation, although their implementation is unlikely, I have doubts...
☝️At this stage, it is better to refrain from opening new positions in gold.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
20 Nov, 14:35
With Donald Trump's victory, the situation for the EUR becomes even more unfavorable than it was.
Although corrections of the single currency are still possible before he takes office and fulfills his election promises, the strengthening of protectionist tendencies on the part of the US and retaliatory measures on the part of the EU threaten the growth rate of the European economy, and this will keep the EUR in a vulnerable position.
At the same time, in the context of "protectionist wars", including with China, the US economy itself may also be at risk in the future, although this does not mean an immediate fall in the USD, at least if the introduction of tariffs is not gradual.
Thus, Trump's victory brings more uncertainty, which makes it difficult to predict market trends, but I repeat: the upward trend in the EUR is unlikely to return in the foreseeable future.
👍It is also safe to say that BTC will continue to be bought up, the only problem here is to predict the scale of the probable correction)
Although corrections of the single currency are still possible before he takes office and fulfills his election promises, the strengthening of protectionist tendencies on the part of the US and retaliatory measures on the part of the EU threaten the growth rate of the European economy, and this will keep the EUR in a vulnerable position.
At the same time, in the context of "protectionist wars", including with China, the US economy itself may also be at risk in the future, although this does not mean an immediate fall in the USD, at least if the introduction of tariffs is not gradual.
Thus, Trump's victory brings more uncertainty, which makes it difficult to predict market trends, but I repeat: the upward trend in the EUR is unlikely to return in the foreseeable future.
👍It is also safe to say that BTC will continue to be bought up, the only problem here is to predict the scale of the probable correction)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Nov, 21:28
BTC: It's too early for bears to rejoice, but it's quite possible that this is the beginning of a correction...
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Nov, 21:13
GBP/USD: the situation here is similar to the situation in the EUR/USD pair - the pair managed to consolidate above 1.2620 and is again trading near the resistance level of 1.2680, which increases the chances of breaking through it and growing towards 1.2760-1.2800.
☝️It is also premature to talk about a reversal of the downward trend here.
☝️It is also premature to talk about a reversal of the downward trend here.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Nov, 20:19
EUR/USD: the pair has so far managed to consolidate above the support around 1.0500, which increases the chances of breaking through the resistance at 1.0600 and growing towards 1.0650-1.0700. However, there is no point in talking about a reversal of the current downward trend.
☝️The inability of the bulls to break through 1.0600 will return EUR/USD to 1.0550-1.0500.
☝️The inability of the bulls to break through 1.0600 will return EUR/USD to 1.0550-1.0500.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Nov, 13:27
XAUUSD: In full accordance with my forecast 💪 gold broke through the resistance of $2605 per ounce and reached the level of 2640.
Here the metal may face interest in selling, but I would prefer to sell from the upper border of the resistance area, i.e. in the area of the level of 2675.
Here the metal may face interest in selling, but I would prefer to sell from the upper border of the resistance area, i.e. in the area of the level of 2675.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
19 Nov, 10:13
❗️Important events today: publication of Canada's inflation data.
☝️Accelerating inflation may be a reason for the Bank of Canada to take a break from lowering the interest rate, which may contribute to a correction in CAD.
☝️Slowing inflation may cause USD/CAD to rise, but pair sales are possible again around the 1.4100 level.
☝️Accelerating inflation may be a reason for the Bank of Canada to take a break from lowering the interest rate, which may contribute to a correction in CAD.
☝️Slowing inflation may cause USD/CAD to rise, but pair sales are possible again around the 1.4100 level.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Nov, 14:49
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Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Nov, 14:23
XAU/USD: In full accordance with my forecast, gold's entry into a strong support area attracted buying interest, against which the metal reached the targets I outlined at levels 2580 and 2605.
Current levels may well be broken, and then the next target will be the resistance area, which starts from level 2640, where we will consider the possibility of selling. But it is too early to talk about this.
Current levels may well be broken, and then the next target will be the resistance area, which starts from level 2640, where we will consider the possibility of selling. But it is too early to talk about this.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Nov, 14:12
USD/SGD: The US dollar also recouped losses against the Singapore dollar, as a result of which it reached resistance at 1.3485.
In general, all the positives for the USD and the negatives for its competitors may already be recouped, and at this stage a consolidation phase is possible, within which USD/SGD may decline to support at 1.3400, and if it is broken, to support at 1.3355.
Breaking through resistance at 1.3485 will lead to growth to 1.3500-1.3520, where USD/SGD may also be sold.
In general, all the positives for the USD and the negatives for its competitors may already be recouped, and at this stage a consolidation phase is possible, within which USD/SGD may decline to support at 1.3400, and if it is broken, to support at 1.3355.
Breaking through resistance at 1.3485 will lead to growth to 1.3500-1.3520, where USD/SGD may also be sold.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Nov, 08:39
☝️Today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events that could trigger a surge in volatility. Demand for USD may remain, while some profit-taking on long positions is possible.
Gold needs to consolidate above the support of $2,540 per ounce, otherwise a decline towards $2,500 should be expected.
Stock indices ended last week with a decline and may remain under pressure today, but their decline should be viewed as an opportunity to buy.
The near-term prospects for EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD remain negative, and their growth attempts may continue to be used for sales. A return of USD/JPY to 156.00-156.50 may again attract interest in selling.
Gold needs to consolidate above the support of $2,540 per ounce, otherwise a decline towards $2,500 should be expected.
Stock indices ended last week with a decline and may remain under pressure today, but their decline should be viewed as an opportunity to buy.
The near-term prospects for EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD remain negative, and their growth attempts may continue to be used for sales. A return of USD/JPY to 156.00-156.50 may again attract interest in selling.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
15 Nov, 10:42
USCRUDE: Iran is limiting itself to threats against Israel for now, which prompts bears to continue selling WTI, against which its recovery was limited by resistance at $69.60 per barrel, and bears intend to test support at 67.20/00 again.
Thus, the risks of its breakout and decline towards 65.60 remain high at the very least, while bears should not forget about the situation in the Middle East and should not neglect precautionary measures.
Thus, the risks of its breakout and decline towards 65.60 remain high at the very least, while bears should not forget about the situation in the Middle East and should not neglect precautionary measures.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
15 Nov, 10:18
☝️Important events today: the publication of US retail sales and industrial production data. Their impact on the dynamics of the USD is unlikely to be significant, moderate pressure on it may remain, while there are no signs of a trend reversal at the moment.
The USD correction can be used for purchases, but volatility in the market is likely to remain low.
The USD correction can be used for purchases, but volatility in the market is likely to remain low.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
14 Nov, 10:35
🧘♂️Yesterday's US inflation data, as I expected, did not have a significant impact on the markets, and after a slight weakening, the USD continues to grow across the entire market spectrum.
I have repeatedly stated that the fall of the dollar was not justified, as, in fact, the growth of EUR, CHF, XAU, etc., and the justification of all this by the upcoming, and then actual, lowering of the Fed interest rate was, to put it mildly, far-fetched.
The Fed lowered the rate again, but the dollar continues to grow, which can also be associated with Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. It is believed that Trump's possible tax cuts and increase in import costs may provoke an increase in inflation, and this may force the Fed to hold off on lowering the rate in the future.
However, all this is a rather long process, and the pre-election statements of politicians are not always fulfilled, so the relevant question is: when will the correction happen? At the moment, many competitors of the dollar are approaching, or have already approached, strong support levels, so the risks of correction are growing.
In general, the upward trend for the USD looks quite strong, so those who avoid risky trades should not rush to sell the dollar, but wait for it to weaken.
Today, the US PPI will be published, its significant decline (which is unlikely) may become a trigger for a moderate correction of the dollar.
I have repeatedly stated that the fall of the dollar was not justified, as, in fact, the growth of EUR, CHF, XAU, etc., and the justification of all this by the upcoming, and then actual, lowering of the Fed interest rate was, to put it mildly, far-fetched.
The Fed lowered the rate again, but the dollar continues to grow, which can also be associated with Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. It is believed that Trump's possible tax cuts and increase in import costs may provoke an increase in inflation, and this may force the Fed to hold off on lowering the rate in the future.
However, all this is a rather long process, and the pre-election statements of politicians are not always fulfilled, so the relevant question is: when will the correction happen? At the moment, many competitors of the dollar are approaching, or have already approached, strong support levels, so the risks of correction are growing.
In general, the upward trend for the USD looks quite strong, so those who avoid risky trades should not rush to sell the dollar, but wait for it to weaken.
Today, the US PPI will be published, its significant decline (which is unlikely) may become a trigger for a moderate correction of the dollar.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
13 Nov, 20:01
☝️What you should pay attention to: EUR/USD, as I predicted, is approaching 1.0500, where a strong support area begins.
The pair has repeatedly returned to the highs in this area, so a rebound from it is possible this time too. Thus, here you should consider buying, but with a target not at the highs, but at the levels of 1.0600-1.0650.
A confident breakthrough of 1.0450 will further aggravate the situation in EUR/USD.
The pair has repeatedly returned to the highs in this area, so a rebound from it is possible this time too. Thus, here you should consider buying, but with a target not at the highs, but at the levels of 1.0600-1.0650.
A confident breakthrough of 1.0450 will further aggravate the situation in EUR/USD.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
13 Nov, 09:55
☝️Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on US inflation data, and here as usual: acceleration of inflation may support USD, but significant growth is unlikely; it may come under pressure when it slows down.
Overall, volatility may remain low, and major pairs may trade in ranges. All the main events may already have been played out and it is quite possible that a consolidation phase will begin now.
Overall, volatility may remain low, and major pairs may trade in ranges. All the main events may already have been played out and it is quite possible that a consolidation phase will begin now.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
12 Nov, 19:21
☝️EUR/USD reached support around 1.0600 - now bears should be extremely cautious❗️
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
12 Nov, 18:12
GBPUSD: in full accordance with my forecast, GBP/USD continues to fall and approaches the support area, which starts approximately from the level of 1.2680.
On the 4H timeframe, the RSI entered the oversold zone, but this does not at all exclude a fall to the 1.2700 area, where moderate purchases of the pair are possible. A breakout of this level will lead to a decline to 1.2680-1.2615, and the closer to the latter level, the higher the probability of an upward rebound.
On the 4H timeframe, the RSI entered the oversold zone, but this does not at all exclude a fall to the 1.2700 area, where moderate purchases of the pair are possible. A breakout of this level will lead to a decline to 1.2680-1.2615, and the closer to the latter level, the higher the probability of an upward rebound.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
12 Nov, 10:49
☝️Apart from speeches by a number of US Federal Reserve officials, today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events that could trigger a surge in volatility.
The speeches will not have much of an impact on the dynamics of the USD, which will continue to be in demand. It is impossible to predict how soon traders will "recoup" Trump's victory, but at this stage the dollar's decline should be used for buying.
The speeches will not have much of an impact on the dynamics of the USD, which will continue to be in demand. It is impossible to predict how soon traders will "recoup" Trump's victory, but at this stage the dollar's decline should be used for buying.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
12 Nov, 10:36
XAUUSD: bears seem to have broken through a fairly strong support around $2,605 per ounce, which suggests a decline to support around $2,560-2,525.
Thus, the metal's immediate prospects have worsened and it is quite obvious that it has entered a correction phase, and after finding "solid" support, it may enter a consolidation phase.
On the 4H timeframe, the RSI is in the oversold zone, and in case of entering a strong support area, one should consider buying with a target of 2,580-2,605.
Thus, the metal's immediate prospects have worsened and it is quite obvious that it has entered a correction phase, and after finding "solid" support, it may enter a consolidation phase.
On the 4H timeframe, the RSI is in the oversold zone, and in case of entering a strong support area, one should consider buying with a target of 2,580-2,605.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
11 Nov, 15:15
US WTI: American WTI has completed its recovery and is falling again, falling below the psychological level of $70.00 per barrel.
The decline has resumed, although OPEC+ continues to be in no hurry to abandon production cuts, and despite the continuing threat of a military conflict between Israel.
In addition to overproduction of oil, traders can "play out" the possibility that Iran will refrain from retaliating against Israel and will make do with threats of "harsh" revenge. Traders can also factor into their prices possible actions by Trump to force Russia to peace by collapsing oil prices.
Nevertheless, it is not worth excluding an Iranian strike on Israel, and the version of Trump collapsing oil prices at this stage can be considered extremely unlikely, so WTI may continue to decline, which may still be limited by the highlighted support area.
The decline has resumed, although OPEC+ continues to be in no hurry to abandon production cuts, and despite the continuing threat of a military conflict between Israel.
In addition to overproduction of oil, traders can "play out" the possibility that Iran will refrain from retaliating against Israel and will make do with threats of "harsh" revenge. Traders can also factor into their prices possible actions by Trump to force Russia to peace by collapsing oil prices.
Nevertheless, it is not worth excluding an Iranian strike on Israel, and the version of Trump collapsing oil prices at this stage can be considered extremely unlikely, so WTI may continue to decline, which may still be limited by the highlighted support area.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
11 Nov, 11:37
☝️Today the US celebrates Veterans Day, which means a bank holiday. Thus, market activity will be low in the absence of important news.
USD will be in moderate demand, therefore its competitors may experience moderate pressure, including gold.
❗️BTC rally may continue, but the coin looks overbought, so current levels do not look attractive for purchases. Those who are margin trading BTC may consider selling at current levels, but in view of the increased risk of further growth, you should use a minimum volume and be prepared for a hold.
USD will be in moderate demand, therefore its competitors may experience moderate pressure, including gold.
❗️BTC rally may continue, but the coin looks overbought, so current levels do not look attractive for purchases. Those who are margin trading BTC may consider selling at current levels, but in view of the increased risk of further growth, you should use a minimum volume and be prepared for a hold.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
10 Nov, 13:23
GBP/USD: recovery was limited by resistance around the psychological level of 1.3000, selling from which led to a fall in the pair to the support of 1.2890, near which the weekly close took place.
After another cut in the interest rate by the Bank of England, the interest rate differential is absent, so the outlook for the pair remains negative, and the immediate target for the bears may be the support of 1.2840. The long-term target is the level of 1.2500.
Rebounds towards 1.3000 can be used for selling, a break of this resistance will weaken the positions of the bears.
After another cut in the interest rate by the Bank of England, the interest rate differential is absent, so the outlook for the pair remains negative, and the immediate target for the bears may be the support of 1.2840. The long-term target is the level of 1.2500.
Rebounds towards 1.3000 can be used for selling, a break of this resistance will weaken the positions of the bears.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
10 Nov, 12:58
EURUSD: the situation is not in favor of the bulls. Their inability to return the pair above 1.0800, the loss of support at 1.0760 and the weekly close below this level after the US FED cut the interest rate indicate a high probability of a decline towards 1.0600-1.0510.
Only a return above 1.0900-1.0950 can weaken the bears' positions, rebounds towards 1.0800 can be used for sales.
Only a return above 1.0900-1.0950 can weaken the bears' positions, rebounds towards 1.0800 can be used for sales.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
08 Nov, 11:51
☝️Today's macroeconomic calendar does not contain any important events that could significantly affect the current situation on the markets.
Major currency pairs and gold are likely to trade in the current ranges. US stock indices may maintain positive dynamics, but overbought conditions may make it difficult to move higher; European indices will continue to experience pressure.
Major currency pairs and gold are likely to trade in the current ranges. US stock indices may maintain positive dynamics, but overbought conditions may make it difficult to move higher; European indices will continue to experience pressure.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
26 Oct, 13:56
🧘♂️Today, the probability of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election is growing. According to analysts, including me, with his return to the presidency we should expect a new round of the trade war with China, an increase in the budget deficit and rising inflation.
Against the backdrop of these expectations, the US dollar and gold continue to be in demand as "defensive" assets and in the near future we should hardly expect significant changes in investor sentiment.
The euro, which I have repeatedly warned about before, is expectedly under pressure, which is also facilitated by the IMF's warning about the likely even greater lag of the EU economy behind the US economy.
Thus, I still adhere to a positive forecast for the USD and a negative one for the EUR. In this regard, a similar forecast is also for other competitors of the USD, including AUD, NZD, and I still believe that at this stage their attempts at growth should be used for sales.
Against the backdrop of these expectations, the US dollar and gold continue to be in demand as "defensive" assets and in the near future we should hardly expect significant changes in investor sentiment.
The euro, which I have repeatedly warned about before, is expectedly under pressure, which is also facilitated by the IMF's warning about the likely even greater lag of the EU economy behind the US economy.
Thus, I still adhere to a positive forecast for the USD and a negative one for the EUR. In this regard, a similar forecast is also for other competitors of the USD, including AUD, NZD, and I still believe that at this stage their attempts at growth should be used for sales.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
25 Oct, 09:15
❗️Key events today: the publication of data on durable goods orders in the US and retail sales in Canada.
The release of the above statistics may cause a moderate surge in volatility in pairs with USD and CAD, respectively. Strong data from the US may contribute to the resumption of USD growth, but a breakout of key levels is unlikely; weak data may put pressure, but its decline will be used for purchases.
Similarly, for CAD: an increase in retail sales may contribute to its recovery, and their decline will put pressure, but a large-scale decline is unlikely.
The release of the above statistics may cause a moderate surge in volatility in pairs with USD and CAD, respectively. Strong data from the US may contribute to the resumption of USD growth, but a breakout of key levels is unlikely; weak data may put pressure, but its decline will be used for purchases.
Similarly, for CAD: an increase in retail sales may contribute to its recovery, and their decline will put pressure, but a large-scale decline is unlikely.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
24 Oct, 19:20
✅ EURUSD is also playing out the forecast for now. I'm not sure that there will be a large-scale recovery, but I wouldn't rule out growth to 1.0860-1.0880.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
24 Oct, 17:43
☝️Potentially interesting situation: AUDUSD is trading near strong support and may develop a recovery, while the risks of a fall remain. At the same time, EURAUD pulled back to the resistance 1.6300, although the euro is in a vulnerable position in anticipation of the ECB lowering the interest rate. Copper, which Australia actively mines, pulled back to support and may resume growth.
What I am getting at: EURAUD at current levels looks attractive for selling and testing 1.6150-1.6100.
Risks: fall of the AUDNZD, fall in copper prices, fall of AUDUSD, RBA rate cut. In case of opening a short position on EURAUD, use the minimum volume, set a stop in accordance with risk management.
P.s. all of the above is an example of intermarket analysis)
What I am getting at: EURAUD at current levels looks attractive for selling and testing 1.6150-1.6100.
Risks: fall of the AUDNZD, fall in copper prices, fall of AUDUSD, RBA rate cut. In case of opening a short position on EURAUD, use the minimum volume, set a stop in accordance with risk management.
P.s. all of the above is an example of intermarket analysis)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
23 Oct, 20:20
XAUUSD: gold tested the level of $2750 per ounce, rose higher, but was sold, and I warned about all this earlier.
☝️At this stage, a corrective decline is observed, within which it is possible to test support in the area of levels 2700-2680, where the metal can be bought out. There are no signs of a reversal, only a breakthrough of 2680 can "hint" at the formation of a peak.
☝️At this stage, a corrective decline is observed, within which it is possible to test support in the area of levels 2700-2680, where the metal can be bought out. There are no signs of a reversal, only a breakthrough of 2680 can "hint" at the formation of a peak.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
23 Oct, 19:22
EURUSD: the pair continues to fall, bears have broken through the support of 1.0800-1.0780, its prospects look negative, but a rebound towards 1.0820-1.0840 is still possible from the current levels due to oversold conditions on the 4H and Daily timeframes.
☝️On a rebound to these levels, the euro may be sold again. The next support is in the area of 1.0740-1.0720, if EURUSD falls to it without a rebound upwards, then these levels look attractive for buying with a small volume.
☝️On a rebound to these levels, the euro may be sold again. The next support is in the area of 1.0740-1.0720, if EURUSD falls to it without a rebound upwards, then these levels look attractive for buying with a small volume.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
22 Oct, 20:09
❗️Tomorrow the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the interest rate level.
According to analysts, the rate will be lowered by 50 bps, which may negatively affect the dynamics of CAD and USD may rise to the level of 1.3900 in a pair with it, where it may be sold.
EURCAD is approaching strong support in the area of 1.4900-1.4880. The pair's outlook remains negative, but the rate cut by the Canadian Central Bank may provide the bulls with an opportunity to test 1.4960-1.4980.
According to analysts, the rate will be lowered by 50 bps, which may negatively affect the dynamics of CAD and USD may rise to the level of 1.3900 in a pair with it, where it may be sold.
EURCAD is approaching strong support in the area of 1.4900-1.4880. The pair's outlook remains negative, but the rate cut by the Canadian Central Bank may provide the bulls with an opportunity to test 1.4960-1.4980.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
22 Oct, 14:45
☝️It looks like gold will soon test $2,750 per ounce. It should be noted that the RSI on the 4H timeframe does not "reach" the previous peak, so we should not exclude a jump upwards and then a correction.
🤔But when gold is buying by the Central Banks, predicting a correction is a rather hopeless business)
🤔But when gold is buying by the Central Banks, predicting a correction is a rather hopeless business)
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
21 Oct, 17:36
☝️Albeit not immediately, but after a pullback, but it looks very much like the bulls' likely nearest target in the region of level 151.75 will still be reached
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
20 Oct, 12:37
USDCAD: having found support around 1.3750, USDCAD returned to a strong resistance area, where it encountered bearish offers around 1.3810.
On the daily chart, the pair is in a consolidation phase and is trading in a wide range, so entering the current resistance area increases the likelihood of renewed sales and a decline towards 1.3600 at least.
☝️Thus, the current levels look attractive for sales, while the likelihood of growth towards 1.3850-1.3900 should be taken into account.
On the daily chart, the pair is in a consolidation phase and is trading in a wide range, so entering the current resistance area increases the likelihood of renewed sales and a decline towards 1.3600 at least.
☝️Thus, the current levels look attractive for sales, while the likelihood of growth towards 1.3850-1.3900 should be taken into account.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
20 Oct, 11:36
GBPUSD: as I predicted☝️, the ECB's rate cut triggered a fall in the EURGBP cross rate, against which the GBPUSD pair rose to the resistance of 1.3070.
At this stage, the bulls are trying to gain a foothold above 1.3040-1.3020, which will allow them to test the resistance of 1.3070 again. Breaking it will return the pair to 1.3100 at least, but the risks of a decline to 1.3000-1.2980 in the event of the bulls' inability to break through 1.3070 still remain.
The slowdown in inflation in the UK has weakened the GBPUSD position in the near future.
At this stage, the bulls are trying to gain a foothold above 1.3040-1.3020, which will allow them to test the resistance of 1.3070 again. Breaking it will return the pair to 1.3100 at least, but the risks of a decline to 1.3000-1.2980 in the event of the bulls' inability to break through 1.3070 still remain.
The slowdown in inflation in the UK has weakened the GBPUSD position in the near future.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Oct, 13:45
WTI: Israel still in no hurry to retaliate against Iran, which contributes to the liquidation of long positions, as a result of which the price of oil is falling sharply.
At the moment, the bears are trying to break through the support around the level of $69.20 per barrel, and if they succeed, WTI may continue to decline towards a strong support area starting near the level of 67.00, where I would consider buying, since the threat of deterioration in the Middle East remains.
At the moment, the bears are trying to break through the support around the level of $69.20 per barrel, and if they succeed, WTI may continue to decline towards a strong support area starting near the level of 67.00, where I would consider buying, since the threat of deterioration in the Middle East remains.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
18 Oct, 13:02
XAUUSD: as I expected, after the ECB rate cut, gold tested $2,700 per ounce. Moreover, this level was broken and its growth continues at the moment. Above there is only an "empty field", one can only guess about the bulls' goals, but in my opinion, a pullback towards 2685-2670 is possible from the current levels.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Oct, 19:54
EURUSD: the euro is expectedly falling on the expected 25 bp rate cut by the ECB and is approaching strong support in the 1.0800-1.0780 area. Considering also the fact that the RSI on the 4H timeframe has entered the oversold zone, the current levels look attractive for opening of long position, while a breakout of support should not be ruled out.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Oct, 19:21
USDJPY: with another attempt, the bulls broke through the resistance in the area of the psychological level of 150.00, which suggests further growth of the pair towards the strong resistance of 151.75.
If the yen is not bought out earlier on the way to this level, then I will open a short position there.
If the yen is not bought out earlier on the way to this level, then I will open a short position there.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Oct, 12:23
❗️❗️US Initial Jobless Claims publication in a few minutes - a surge in volatility is also possible
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Oct, 10:15
☝️By the way, if the ECB cuts the interest rate, XAUUSD may break through resistance and test the psychological level of $2,700 per ounce.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
17 Oct, 09:48
If EURUSD rises on the ECB decision, I would prefer to sell
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Oct, 20:39
GBPUSD: here too the situation is not at all joyful for the bulls, since the loss of 1.3000 can significantly weaken their positions. Next, the bears may test the support of 1.2900-1.2860, but ☝️ tomorrow's ECB decision may provoke a fall in the EURGBP cross rate, against which GBPUSD may soar towards 1.3050-1.3070.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Oct, 19:54
EURUSD: after breaking through the 1.0900 support, the situation in the pair is not in favor of the bulls. The next support on the bears' path is around the 1.0800 level.
☝️Tomorrow, the ECB will announce its decision on the interest rate level, which is expected to be cut by another 25 bp. On this decision, the bears may test 1.0800, but if the bank surprises markets by keeping the rate at the current level, then a rebound back to 1.0900 is possible.
☝️Tomorrow, the ECB will announce its decision on the interest rate level, which is expected to be cut by another 25 bp. On this decision, the bears may test 1.0800, but if the bank surprises markets by keeping the rate at the current level, then a rebound back to 1.0900 is possible.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Oct, 10:46
USCRUDE: While Israel is deciding how to respond to Iran, oil continues to experience selling pressure, against which the rebound of US WTI from the support in the region of $69.50 per barrel was limited by the resistance of 70.90, and the bears are currently trying to break through the support again.
Despite the current negative mood, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and even if the support is broken and WTI decline towards 69.00-68.50, the bulls may show themselves again. Breaking through the resistance will lead to growth towards 71.80-72.00.
Despite the current negative mood, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and even if the support is broken and WTI decline towards 69.00-68.50, the bulls may show themselves again. Breaking through the resistance will lead to growth towards 71.80-72.00.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Oct, 07:26
XAUUSD: a decline in US Treasury yields is helping gold prices continue to rise, as a result of which its quotes broke through resistance at $2,665 per ounce and tested the level of $2,676.
The current growth increases the chances of breaking through resistance at $2,685 and testing the psychological level of $2,700; the loss of support at $2,665 will lead to a decline to $2,650-$2,640 per ounce.
The current growth increases the chances of breaking through resistance at $2,685 and testing the psychological level of $2,700; the loss of support at $2,665 will lead to a decline to $2,650-$2,640 per ounce.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
16 Oct, 07:12
‼️ UK inflation falls sharply to 1.7%, below Bank of England’s target for first time in over three years - GBP will be under pressure
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
15 Oct, 12:10
☝️USDCAD: slowly but surely the pair is moving higher and higher. On the 4H timeframe, the RSI has "settled" in the overbought zone, the pair is in the resistance area, and although its growth to 1.3850-1.3900 should not be ruled out, I still believe that the current levels are more comfortable for sales than for purchases.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
15 Oct, 06:57
❗️What's important today: the publication of inflation data in Canada. At the moment, CAD continues to experience selling pressure, but the acceleration of inflation may contribute to the development of a correction. Slowing inflation may increase pressure, but USDCAD may be sold on growth due to overbought conditions.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
14 Oct, 20:39
EURUSD. There is a fight for support in the 1.0900 area, which can be considered quite important for maintaining the uptrend, since its breakout may signal the formation of a peak and the development of a downtrend to 1.0800-1.0780 at least.
On Thursday, the ECB will announce its rate decision, which may be cut once again by 25 bp to 3.25%. This may well add negativity to the euro dynamics, but if the ECB refrains from lowering (which is unlikely), the euro may correct higher. Before the rate decision, the pair may continue to try to consolidate above 1.0900.
At this stage, the pair is not oversold, and the 100-day MA has already crossed the 200-day MA from top to bottom, which indicates the risks of further decline. I have a small long, but in case of an upward rebound, I will get rid of it.
On Thursday, the ECB will announce its rate decision, which may be cut once again by 25 bp to 3.25%. This may well add negativity to the euro dynamics, but if the ECB refrains from lowering (which is unlikely), the euro may correct higher. Before the rate decision, the pair may continue to try to consolidate above 1.0900.
At this stage, the pair is not oversold, and the 100-day MA has already crossed the 200-day MA from top to bottom, which indicates the risks of further decline. I have a small long, but in case of an upward rebound, I will get rid of it.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
14 Oct, 12:47
📈The pair is approaching 150.00, where the possibility of selling should be considered, taking into account, at the same time, the risk of growth to 151.75.
Kharitonov FX Trading (EN)
13 Oct, 20:40
USDJPY: The pair managed to maintain a positive sentiment towards the end of this trading week, but failed to break through the resistance around 149.50. This level is quite a strong barrier to the psychological level of 150.00 and strong resistance around 151.75.
Thus, breaking through 145.50 will allow the bulls to test the strength of the 150.00 level, and its confident breakout will ensure growth to 151.75, where the dollar can be sold again. In turn, the inability to break through 149.50 will maintain the risks of a fall to 148.50-148.00.
Overall, the interest rate differential still makes the yen vulnerable to further selling, but at this stage it is completely impossible to predict whether the liquidation of short positions on it will resume. In this case, each move higher in the dollar significantly increases the risk of its next fall.
Thus, breaking through 145.50 will allow the bulls to test the strength of the 150.00 level, and its confident breakout will ensure growth to 151.75, where the dollar can be sold again. In turn, the inability to break through 149.50 will maintain the risks of a fall to 148.50-148.00.
Overall, the interest rate differential still makes the yen vulnerable to further selling, but at this stage it is completely impossible to predict whether the liquidation of short positions on it will resume. In this case, each move higher in the dollar significantly increases the risk of its next fall.
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