Fino.Club

Two Strategy Notes On Indian Markets

Citi sees NIFTY valuations more reasonable

Sep’25 NIFTY target is 25k – 7% upside from here

See potential H2 recovery in public capex & rural demand are positives

Upgrade Cement to Overweight from Neutral

Add Ramco Cement and switch from Devyani to Jubilant Food in our mid-cap picks

Key Overweight: Financials, Telecom, Pharma

Key Underweight: Consumer Discretionary, IT, Metals

Goldman Sachs expect the NIFTY to reach 27,000 by end 2025, driven by underlying 13%/16% earnings forecasts

Expect the market to remain range-bound over the next 3-months - target 24000 and for a back-loaded recovery as growth picks up

Stay tactically neutral India; Favor select domestics

Raise exporters like Infotech to Overweight and Pharma to Marketweight on stable/improving demand, EPS tailwinds from weaker INR and defensive characteristics

Focus on quality growth, earnings visibility, targeted alpha themes

4 flavours of quality - Strong balance sheets, High earnings visibility, Positive EPS revisions, and Low beta stocks

Preferred medium-term themes include housing, agriculture, defense, tourism and affluent India

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trumps-day-1-promise-to-shut-clean-energy-projects-send-stocks-tumbling-6959675

ADDED BAJEL PROJECTS@249 & AFFORDABLE

Volatility in Gold n Silver has jus begun


Don't overtrade or speculate in fomo

Reminder - US elections on 5th November.

Here’s the timeline -

1. Voting day - 5th November, voting till 6 pm

2. Counting of votes - 5th November, after 6 pm

3. Final results - Could take several days, in 2020 it took 4 days

4. Inauguration of new President - 20th January, 2025

Expecting VIX and volatility to be high for the the coming week.

*Ye Diwali Se Agle Diwali Tak* 🪔
*BUYING PPL PHARMA 265 TO 245 TGT 370-610-987*
SL AS PER FIT

⚠️ US imposed sanctions on about 400 entities and individuals, including *04 Indian firms* for helping Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine

🔔 While naming Indian Firms, US State Department statement said that:

🗿 Ascend Aviation India Private Limited “sent over 700 shipments to Russia-based companies” between March 2023 and March 2024. These shipments included over $200,000 worth of CHPL items, such as US-origin aircraft components.

🗿 Mask Trans, an India-based company involved in the supply of over $300,000 worth of CHPL items such as aviation components to Russia-based and U.S.-designated S 7 ENGINEERING LLC from June 2023 to at least April 2024.

🗿 TSMD Global Private Limited, an India-based company shipped at least $430,000 worth of CHPL items to Russia-based companies, including Electron Komponent and the U.S.-designated companies: Limited Liability company VMK, Alfa limited liability company and joint stock company Avtovaz. These shipments, which occurred between July 2023 and March 2024, included U.S.- and EU origin BIS CHPL Tier 1 and 2 items such as electronic integrated circuits, central processing units, and other fixed capacitors.

🗿 Futrevo, an India-based company involved in the supply of over $1.4 million worth of CHPL items such as electronic components to Russia-based and U.S.-designated Limited Liability Company SMT-ILOGIC, the manufacturer of Orlan drones with Russia-based and U.S.-designated Special Technology Center. The shipments were from January 2023 to at least February 2024.

*TWO SETTLMENT PAY IN AND PAYOUT ON 04.11.2024*

*TRADE DONE ON 31.10.24 AND ON 01.11.2024 (Muhurat Trading Session) PAY IN and PAYOUT is on 04th Nov 2024*

*DO NOT SELL SHARES ON 01st NOV 2024 WHICH WAS BOUGHT ON 31st OCT 2024*

BLOCK DEAL ALERT: Torrent Pharma

Promoter to sell upto 2.9% stake via block deal

Base offer size is of 83 Lakh shares or 2.4% stake worth 2500 cr

Greenshoe option for 16.5 lakh shares

Offer floor price is Rs 3022.7 – 6% discount to CMP

Deal size of nearly Rs 3000 cr

Fii + 15508 - 16057 = - 549 Cr
DII + 12824 - 12094= + 730 Cr

Idxfut + 5288 - 4994 = + 294 Cr
Idxopt + 3104786 - 3084670 = + 20116 Cr
Stkfut + 142625 - 139956
= + 2669 Cr
Stkopt + 78032 - 77543
= + 489 Cr

29-10-2024

Ashapura Mine 18% down, Its Chairman found guilty in Mine scam with Congress leader in Karnataka.

Arrest warrant and imprisonment notice issued by Court along with other culprits.

Why Jio, Airtel, or Adani Won’t Touch Vi (Vodafone Idea) Anytime Soon 🙏📛

So, I keep hearing that “Vi will definitely be acquired by Adani, Jio, or Airtel.” But does that really make sense? 🤔 Honestly, I don’t see it happening—and here’s why:

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1️⃣ Vi’s User Base Just Isn’t That Attractive

Vi has 21.5 crore users, sure, but here’s the catch: 47% are still on 2G! 😳 We’re talking about customers with limited incomes, who probably aren’t lining up to buy expensive international packs or premium add-ons. So for a big player like Jio or Airtel… are they really worth chasing?

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2️⃣ The User Base Is Shrinking

Let’s face it, Vi’s customers aren’t exactly sticking around either. Those looking for the cheapest plans are already hopping over to Jio or even BSNL. So by the time Vi’s really in trouble (fingers crossed it doesn’t happen), what’s left? Not a whole lot of quality users, that’s for sure. 📉

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3️⃣ Vi’s Tech Is Basically Outdated

Vi’s infrastructure is like a blast from the past. It’s mostly 2G, 3G, and some 4G (and that’s way behind Airtel and Jio). Plus:

Jio is all about 4G and beyond, with zero interest in 2G tech.
Airtel is just keeping 2G alive for now because they feel obligated—but they’re waiting for the green light to shut it down.

So, the infrastructure Vi has? Not exactly something Airtel or Jio would be dying to take over.

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4️⃣ Vi’s Debt Load Is Insane

If Vi goes bankrupt, it’s on the hook for ₹2 lakh crore to clear. People say Jio, Airtel, or even Adani would just “buy it at a discount,” but here’s the catch: Spectrum is a national asset. Any buyer would have to cover those commitments.

And even if the banks get nothing, there’s still about ₹1.4 lakh crore owed to the government! Not exactly pocket change. 📛

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5️⃣ “The Government Will Just Convert Dues Into Equity”... Really?

Some say the government could convert Vi’s dues into equity, then fold it into BSNL. But think about it: Vi owes four times its market cap to the government and banks! FOUR TIMES. Do we really think the government is just going to eat that? With all respect… not happening.

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So yeah, considering all this, I can’t see Airtel, Jio, or Adani going near Vi anytime soon. Unless the government changes the laws and allows a big cut on spectrum and AGR dues, there’s just no reason for any of these big players to jump in.

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View On Solar Manufacturing

Currently, three key players from the listed space are active: Websol, Waree, and Premier. While these companies are participating, the real focus is on cell and wafer manufacturing, which is the foundation of the solar industry. Websol and Mundra are already active in the cell segment.

Waree is working on bringing 5.4 GW of cell capacity and Premier is aiming for 1.2 GW. However, with China continuing to dominate and potentially flooding the global market with clean energy products, oversupply could become a significant risk, especially for long-term investments.

Government policy changes could further heighten this risk, much like what happened in the chemical industry. As more companies set up large capacities, oversupply may drive down profitability. In my view, only a few players with strong backing from large parent companies—such as Mundra/Adani Solar, Reliance, and Tata-backed firms—are likely to endure the intense competition.

For now, it’s best to enjoy the current momentum.

My take is straightforward: don’t get swept up in the narratives. Ride the market waves, but avoid long-term investments based purely on stories. Focus on companies with solid backing or a clear competitive advantage.