🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇺🇸 Basavareddy @ 2.22 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

Changing camps this week. I was on Monfils last week in Brisbane, but under these circumstances, I don’t agree with him having better chances than he did last week. Monfils lacked energy yesterday, and it’s hard to trust a veteran this deep in a tournament—especially against a young player like Basavareddy, who doesn’t give much away and plays long rallies. The American has shown me enough this week to not be considered an underdog against a 38-year-old Frenchman playing his fourth match of the week, right before a Slam.

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇪🇸 Carballes Baena @ 2.52 (Pinn) - 0.75u

This is already the fifth match of the week for Bergs, and given his fragile physique, I wouldn’t have him as such a strong favorite at this level. Especially not against a player like Carballes Baena, who is an excellent grinder and mover, consistently forcing opponents to play a lot of balls.

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇬🇪 Basilashvili @ 2.17 (Pinnacle) - 1u

I can’t see Passaro as a slight favorite here. It’s never easy to trust Basilashvili, but I think his powerful groundstrokes can cause some damage and rush Passaro, who tends to prefer having more time on the ball, as is often the case with clay-courters. The hard-court ELO rankings also have the Georgian notably higher than his opponent, so this price looks worthy the risk.

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Giron @ 2.71 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

*at first i accidentally wrote 1u but that was typo - it is 0.75u play, sorry for confussion

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

This is purely a price play. Shapovalov continues to be volatile, and we’re never quite sure which version of him will show up, but at this price, I don’t mind taking the risk. The Canadian hasn’t shown much apart from his indoor title in Belgrade and was also dealing with a virus last week in Hong Kong. Although he looked physically fine in his recent match, with Zhang’s poor play helping him, we can’t be certain how much training he has done in recent days or how he’ll cope if Giron pushes him physically.

Marcos Giron pulled off several upsets last season, and I often find him slightly underrated. His quick movement should work well in this matchup, forcing Shapovalov to hit that extra ball, which could lead to errors. In any case, this should be a close match unless Shapovalov brings his A-game.

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Giron @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) - 1u

This price doesn’t make any sense. Whether it’s the ‘home advantage’ for the Aussie or the slight benefit of already having a couple of matches under his belt this season, I still can’t justify Vukic being favored in this one. Marcos Giron is more reliable and has been the better player overall, at least over the past 52 weeks: a higher win rate percentage, a higher total serve/return points won (101 vs. Vukic’s 98), a higher hold/break total (101 vs. Vukic’s 95), and he is 30 spots higher in the hard-court ELO rankings. It’s hard to pass up this price on the American here.

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Jones O20.5 @ 1.76 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Backing the local talent to push Holmgren in this one. Jones has a very solid physique for his age and can generate some cheap points off his serve, which could be crucial against Holmgren, who isn’t the best returner and is prone to playing tiebreaks.

The Aussie showed a good level against Kasnikowski last week, pushing him to a deciding set tiebreak (was broken just once in almost 3 hours), and last year (at just 17!) he also took sets off Shelbayh and Ugo Carabelli. I think the youngster is talented enough to stay competitive in at least one of the sets on Tuesday.

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Tien O21.5 @ 1.89 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Learner Tien, in my opinion, is another next-gen player who feels a bit overrated due to the hype, media attention, and taking advantage of weaker fields in the U.S. While the potential is likely there, he hasn’t been convincing enough to justify his current price, as he’s too inconsistent during matches. For example, he was a clear favorite (>65%) in 34 Challenger matches last year but only 13 of them went under 21.5 games, and that was mostly against players ranked between 250–400. His Challenger record on paper—35-9—looks impressive, but as mentioned earlier, that’s largely due to facing a high number of lower-ranked players. Out of those 44 matches, he faced only three top-150 opponents, which is quite telling.

Barrere’s best days may be behind him—when he was ranked inside the top 50—but he still remains a top-tier Challenger player. I don’t see Tien beating him convincingly in this matchup, given his tendencies.

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇧🇪 Blockx @ 1.87 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Spizziri is your typical U.S. college graduate who has been taking advantage of weaker Challenger fields in that region to climb up the rankings and peaking during the US Open. However, I’m not sure he can replicate his usual level in unfamiliar surroundings. This tournament marks his first event outside the U.S., and I’m a bit skeptical about his chances here. I don’t think this factor is fully accounted for in the odds, so I don’t mind backing a talented Belgian in this pick’em matchup.

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇪🇸 Carballes Baena @ 2.24 (Pinn) - 1u

While RCB is often labeled as a clay-courter, he is certainly capable of playing well on hard courts, especially on these slower ones in Auckland. Another important factor could be Monday’s weather conditions in Auckland, which are forecasted to be very windy. In such conditions, I’m more inclined to side with a steadier, more consistent player.

Lucas Pouille, on the other hand, prefers to go big and hit aggressive shots, often aiming for the lines, so facing a ‘wall’ like Carballes Baena in these conditions might not be ideal for him. Overall, I think Carballes Baena is a bit underrated in this matchup.

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Bolt +1.5 sets @ 1.97 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Alex Bolt is known for his old-fashioned game, and I think his net rushing and slices could be effective a gainst a flat hitter like McDonald, who trails in their long head-to-head 2-3. Additionally, we should never underestimate Aussies playing at their home slam, they tend to play inspired tennis here. So overall, I would be surprised to see Bolt completely overrun here in these circumstances.

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇪🇸 Bautista Agut @ 2.13 (Pinn) - 1u

I like Bautista Agut’s chances against his volatile fellow Spaniard. Fokina can be hit-or-miss and tends to struggle against players who rely on their opponents’ errors, making this a less-than-ideal matchup for him. He also struggled against Munar last week, who can play as a ‘wall’ at times, and Hijikata is another player who has recently grinded out a win against Fokina.

Even at 36, Bautista Agut remains a very solid baseliner and dominated Fokina in both of their previous outdoor hard-court encounters (losing just seven games in two straight-set wins, though those matches were 2–3 years ago). For me, this price looks good enough to back Bautista Agut what looks a favorable matchup against the inconsistent Davidovich Fokina.

Adelaide Q 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Bonzi -3.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinn) - 1u

Not expecting much from Fabio here. It’s his first match of the season, and he’s up against a resurgent Benjamin Bonzi in the Australian heat. Bonzi is better suited to these conditions and has the advantage of match sharpness, having competed in Brisbane last week. Fabio has a tendency to tank or gift games if he goes down a break early, and that wouldn’t be surprising given the circumstances—season opener, tough conditions, and a stronger opponent.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇯🇵 Nishikori -3.5 games @ 1.85 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Expecting Muller to face a reality check on Sunday. The Frenchman is having a dream week in Hong Kong, reaching the final by winning all four matches in deciding sets as an underdog in each of them. However, Muller has already spent almost 10 hours on court this week, so I wonder if he will be fresh enough to maintain such form. Additionally, he won’t have the ‘nothing to lose’ mentality, as this is the final, which might also affect his performance.

His opponent, Kei Nishikori, is rolling back the years this week and has spent almost half the time on court compared to Muller. But yeah, overall, I believe the Frenchman may struggle to sustain the level he has shown throughout the week due to the factors mentioned above. I expect Nishikori to leverage his experience and cruise to victory in this one.

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Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇨🇿 Lehecka -3.0 games @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Don’t expect much from Jarry in this one. He thrives on dominating the baseline with his powerful hitting, but Lehecka can respond with similar firepower and expose Jarry's lack of movement on this surface. The big Chilean has consistently struggled to match top players on hard courts (unless their names are Tsitsipas or Ruud, who can be rushed), and I don’t see him keeping up with Lehecka, especially given Jarry’s poor return stats—he has one of the worst return ratings on tour, breaking serve only 12% of the time.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇨🇳 Shang -2.0 games @ 1.93 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Marozsan is coming off a big win over Rublev today, which seems to have slightly inflated his chances in the upcoming matches. However, I haven’t been convinced by Marozsan’s performance against left-handers—he has only two main-level wins against higher-ranked left-handers in his career. Shang had the opportunity to go 3-0 in their head-to-head a few months ago (and 6-0 in sets!) but failed to capitalize on his chances and eventually lost the match despite winning more games and points that day. Now, he plays on a ‘home court’ and has shown a tendency to elevate his level when playing in front of a supportive crowd. Given the matchup and circumstances, I like Shang in this encounter.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇭🇺 Marozsan +1.5 sets @ 2.05 (Pinnacle) - 1u

A decent price to oppose slow-starter Rublev in his opening match of 2025. Andrey tends to be a bit rusty early on and has covered his set spread in only 47% of matches (as the favorite in every single one) since the beginning of 2022. Marozsan pushed Rublev to three sets when they met in the summer of 2024, and I could see that happening again, especially considering the Hungarian has the slight advantage of having a match under his belt already and that raw power to put Rublev on the back foot.

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Mpetshi Perricard +1.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinnacle) - 1.25u

I'm not sure this is the right matchup for Tiafoe to be a 1.5-game favorite. The American has one of the lowest first-serve percentages (58.3%), which is not an ideal stat when facing one of the biggest servers on tour as fewer first serves mean more pressure during service games. Additionally, Mpetshi is leading in aces (averaging 19 per match), while Tiafoe statistically (12.9% of serves are aces against him) concedes the most aces during matches - another red flag for Tiafoe fans. Lastly, Tiafoe isn't known for thriving or playing his best in smaller events so considering the matchup and these odds, I believe Mpetshi is the right choice here.

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇯🇵 Nishioka @ 2.96 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

A smaller stake on Nishioka seems reasonable here. He tends to perform at his best when he can use his opponent's pace and redirect it, which should work well against Lehecka, an ultra-aggressive player. With most players still looking for their rhythm, Nishioka has the advantage of already having played three matches, compared to the Czech, who has only played one. This timing might favor Nishioka, as his style relies more on consistency and control rather than raw power and riskier style, unlike his opponent.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇮🇹 Sonego @ 2.35 (Pinnacle) - 1u

If this was played few seasons ago id agree with Norrie being a clear favorite but his biggest strenght - baseline consistency - has decreased significantly. The brit isnt the wall he used to be so im not sure he could be favored against anyone around the top50 zone. Sonego is a streaky animal but i dont mind backing him at this rate.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇯🇵 Nishikori @ 2.41 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Really dont mind fading a volatile Shapo at this price, let alone against a capable Nishikori who showed positive signs of comeback at the second part of the season. Kei enjoys a lefty matchup because of his elite backhand and also Shapovalov just withdrew from doubles in Hong Kong citing ilness, so there is a chance he wont be at his best tomorrow. Nishikori isnt the most consistent either but he has been on a positive curve in recent months and his price looks worthy the risk.

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Monfils @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Will have another go against Basavarredy this week. Still think he cannot be priced this way without not having any real weapons against an experienced tour level player in Monfis. The young american was a bit fortunate he got a jadded version of Pouille few days back but Monfils should have an upper hand in every department against Basavareddy. This is no pickem to me.

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Kyrgios @ 2.21 (Pinn) - 1u

Mpetshi had a dream week in Basel indoors at the end of the 2024 season, but I see that performance as an outlier for such a one-dimensional player. He was named Most Improved Player of the Year, and while there’s media hype around him, I think he’s being overvalued in the betting markets. Mpetshi is very serve-dependent, meaning he can beat or lose to anyone on a given day. His inconsistency is evident—losing to Seyboth Wild indoors but then winning the ATP 500 Basel. Moreover, he’s just 2-6 on outdoor hard courts in 2024, with losses to players like Hanfmann and Etcheverry.

Nick Kyrgios is returning from a long injury break, and while he may not reach his 2022 form, he’s still one of the most talented players of the last decade. Rust is a concern, but Kyrgios should handle it better than most because of his great hands. The real challenge for him will be back-to-back matches, but that’s not an issue in this spot.

Overall, I believe Mpetshi is overrated in this matchup because of the hype, and Kyrgios is undervalued. Nick can match Mpetshi’s serve and has a clear edge from the baseline so I don't mind this price for the Aussie.

Canberra Challenger Q 🇦🇺

🇬🇧 Evans @ 1.84 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Strange to see Evans playing Challenger qualies but thats the reality now. Still, i think he remains a challenging opponent at this level, especially against youngster who play offensive tennis, just like Ethan Quinn, and can be easier disrupted with Evo's slicing and net rushing abilities. Also, Quinns low margin tennis is perhaps a bit better suited indoors whilst the american has only 3 victories outdoors (3/15 won in total) against top160 (Evans rank zone) players in his career. Expecting Evans to outsmart the youngster and would put him a little shorter here.

Hong Kong Q 🇭🇰

🏳️ Kotov @ 1.70 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Buy low situation here with Pavel Kotov. He had a horror ending to 2024, losing his last 5 matches of the season and just 1 set out of 11. However, its a new season now, a clean sheet of paper starts, and i expect Kotov to turn things around again. He isnt that bad to start losing brutally all of a sudden and most importantly Valentin Royer is far from opposition that was beating Kotov. I still think Pavel Kotov is a head above his today opponent and we are getting this generous price on him only because bookies baked his 2024 ending too heavily into calculations.

Brisbane Q 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Pouille @ 2.46 (Pinn) - 1u

There has been a lot of noise around the youngster Basavareddy because he is the nextgen and potential future top player but perhaps this attention has drawn some overreaction to betting markets. The young american won 2 Challenger titles and reached 4 finals in 2024 but it needs to be said all of those results were in N. America where fields arent usually the strongest (nothing compared to Europe where his opponent competes and dominates). Lucas Pouille is a tough cookie who is not only more established but also 15 spots higher in hard elo rankings. Im still waiting for Basavareddy to prove himself against proper opposition but until he does that, i cant have him as a notable favorite in this matchup. I think Pouille deserves to have equal chances in this one.

Brisbane Outright Winner 🇦🇺

🇮🇹 Berrettini @ 15.0 (bet365) - 0.25u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Matteo is the fourth favorite this week but his price looks worthy the play. He looks healthy again and when he is fit he remains one of the better player in fast conditions. Other 3 favorites are Novak Djokovic, who hasnt played a competitive match for several months and comes with questionable motivation for this small event; Rune, who is still a rollercoster and could struggle in tough (heat+humidity) conditions, and Dimitrov, who has won just one title in 7 years. I believe the italian can go deep on these fast paced courts with his serve+forehand combo.

United Cup 🇦🇺

🇪🇸 Carreno Busta +1.5 sets @ 1.85 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Tsitsipas has been a dissapointment in quick conditions as of late and PCB has shown that he can replicate his pre injury level in recent months. Plus, the spaniard has a match advantage under his belt as he opened his 2025 season with an inspiring performance yesterday. Expecting not the best version of Tsitsipas in this circumstances while PCB still has the level to trouble top players.

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United Cup 🇦🇺

🇭🇷 Coric +1.5 sets @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1u

Aliassime is a known slow starter in opening rounds in recent seasons, let alone its the first match of this season and his first performances in 2024, 2023, 2022, have been below par: 3 straight losses as a favorite (1.4; 1.1; 1.65). So there are reasons to believe this match will be shaky for him and thats why i rate him slightly overrated in the first match of the season. Coric's level hasnt been inspiring in recent months but when FAA struggles its usually because he beats himself and not his opponents outplays him. And lastly, opposing Aliassime in opening matches statistically has been a profitable strategy for the last 3 seasons: he won only 37% of those matches in straight sets and backing opponents to win a set blindly generated 13% ROI. So yeah, the tendency of FAA underperforming is quite clear, thats why i take Coric to win a set.

United Cup 🇦🇺

🇧🇷 Monteiro +3.5 games @ 1.74 (Pinn) - 1u

Zhang type of player that tends to play better as an underdog but when he is expected to win, his level may drop down a bit so i dont mind attacking him with this spread. Monteiro can be a bit underrated on fast surfaces and his recent performances for his country are encouraging: covered 3.5 against Arnaldi, Griekspoor, even beat Bergs and Rune. The brazilian becomes very serve oriented in these conditions, plays a good amount of tiebreaks / close sets so his +3.5 looks appealing against a volatile opponent.

*note that this line was tipped on 24th for my followers (on telegram first)

⏳ A bit less than 4 weeks left until 2025 tennis season 🎾

Maia Challenger 🇵🇹

🇫🇷 Janvier +1.5 sets @ 2.0 (Pinn) - 1u

Maia Challenger 🇵🇹

🇩🇰 Moller -3.0 games @ 1.88 (Pinn) - 1u

Davis Cup 🌍

🇦🇺 De Minaur @ 2.81 / +181 (Pinn) - 1u

De Minaur has been a tough opponent for Fritz historically, even last week the aussie could have beaten him in straight sets. Alex should be better attuned to conditions and perhaps a bit fresher compared to Fritz who went all the way in Turin last week and arrived in Malaga just few days back.

Davis Cup 🌍

🇨🇦 Canada @ 2.35 / +135 (Pinn) - 1u

ATP Finals 🌎

🇳🇴 Ruud +5.5 games @ 1.86 (Pinn) - 1u

As much as Sinner feels invincible these days, such line is worth a play in these quick and serve oriented conditions. Ruud has been sneaky good on serve in Turin, holding 91% of times this week and 85% overall (3 editions). Casper has even covered this line here against Djokovic and twice.

ATP Finals 🌎

🇩🇪 Zverev U22.0 games @ 1.77 (Pinn) - 1u

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz +4.5 @ 1.77 (Pinn) -1u

Kobe Challenger 🇯🇵

🇸🇪 Ymer +1.5 sets @ 1.75 (Pinn) - 1u

Challenging travel spot for Bu who went deep last week in Metz, France and starts his Challenger campaign in Kobe, Japan on tuesday. Let alone the chinese has already secured the main draw entry for the Australian Open and also has withdrew from the upcoming weeks tournament in Yokohama, so i wonder how dedicated he is to push himself in Kobe this week. Though Ymer is a player of lower quality, he is better aclimatized and should be in better rhythm. I like him to nick at least one set here.

It is reported that Carlos Alcaraz is having a bit of a cold in Turin 🤧

Alexander Zverev to finish first in the group at 3.0 / +200 might be a look

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz @ 2.04 / +104 (Pinn) - 1u
🪜 1st set O12.5 @ 3.30 / +230 (Pinn) - 0.75u

As i wrote in my tournament preview, there are a lot of tiebreaks played in Turin historically (fast conditions, elites players dont get broken easily, etc) and especially in the opening matches when players arent as used to conditions as later in the week, maybe its a bit more difficult to find rhythm on return, etc: 8/12 opening matches (4 in 2021, 4 in 2022, and 4 in 2023) have gone to a first set tiebreak in Turin which is telling. So thats my argument for over 12.5 games in set 1. Regarding Fritz ML, i feel like he is just more reliable in this matchup. Medvedev hasnt been playing his best for weeks now, maybe that shoulder issue is still bothering him and in these conditions, it should be the russian who is more likely to throw a stinker service game which should be crucial.

Have a good friday! ✌️

✅ Shapovalov @ 1.79 - 1.5u
✅ Bonzi @ 2.06 - 1u

2-0, +2.25u 💵

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Bonzi @ 2.06 / +106 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇨🇦 Shapovalov @ 1.79 (Pinn) - 1.5u

🌍 ATP Finals - What Do You Need To Know

Useful? Leave ❤️

📍Location: Turin (4th edition)

Start date: Sunday, 11-10
End date: Sunday, 11-17

Groups:
- Sinner; Medvedev; Fritz; De Minaur
- Zverev; Alcaraz; Ruud; Rublev
*alternate: Dimitrov

📊 Players ranked by ELO on hard:
1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Medvedev
5. Fritz
6. De Minaur
7. Rublev
8. Ruud

💵 Prize money:
Participation fee: $331k (for 3 matches)
Round robin match win: $396.5k
Semi final match win: $1.12m
Final win: $2.2m
Undefeated champion: $4.88m

🗻 Conditions in Turin:
Fastest on tour (combination of quick hard court and altitude: ~240m)

Underdogs:
2021: 27% won
2022: 60% won
2023: 13% won
- Overall in Turin: 33% of underdogs have won

Tiebreaks in Turin:
2021: 47% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2022: 53% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2023: 43% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
- Overall, 48% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
*sample size: 44

Lenghtiness of first sets in Turin:
Over 10.5 games: 49% of matches
Over 12.5 games: 30% of matches
*sample size: 44

However, there is a notable trend that lenghty opening set is more likely in the first 4 matches of the tournament, i.e. opening matches for everyone (sunday, monday):

- a first set tiebreak was played in 67% of first 4 matches (sample size: 12)

Due to fast conditions, players need some time to adjust to conditions and without much rhythm its difficult to succeed on return games early on, hence players are holding more frequent and playing longer sets in their opening matches. Thats my theory.

Lastly, be aware of players that will be playing dead rubbers - they can be sneaky dangerous. Though they dont have chances to reach semis, they are still playing for almost $400k and without any pressure, which can improve performance.

Remember, in tennis, when a player NEEDS to win its not an argument to back such player. In some cases, it can even serve as a negative factor as its an added pressure.

Useful? Leave ❤️

Lastly, who is your tournament winner and why is it Sinner? 🤔

Matsuyama Challenger 🇯🇵

🇯🇵 Moriya +1.5 sets @ 2.45 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇨🇳 Bu -2.5 games @ 1.82 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇧🇪 Bergs -2.5 games @ 1.8 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🏳️ Safiullin -2.0 games @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1u

I think there is some value in Ruud's quarter who is likely to withdraw from Metz and head to Turin, just like other participants.

Halys is 1.25 to beat Herbert and expected to be 2.2 in the quarterfinal by his quarter outright price, which i dont agree with assuming he would play either Bonzi or LL for place in semis.

Whereas Bonzi will likely play LL (and not Ruud) today and Halys/Herbert in quarters so 3.40 seems too big as well.

I dont mind Halys 2.75 and Bonzi 3.40, can even back both because one of them should reach semis.

But if i had to take one, i would probably go with Halys at 2.75. Its not impossible that Ruud plays his opening match in Metz and then withdraws, just like Rublev did.

Casper Ruud in Oslo?

Scheduled to play in Metz today but will he be there?

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Mannarino @ 1.94 / -106 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Gaston @ 1.89 / -112 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇦🇷 Etcheverry -2.0 @ 1.88 (Pinn) - 1u