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🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

@tennismasterrpicks

🎾 ATP tennis analyst

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🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks (English)

Are you a tennis enthusiast looking to up your game with some expert picks? Look no further than the '🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks' Telegram channel, run by the username '@tennismasterrpicks'. This channel is managed by an ATP tennis analyst who provides insightful predictions and analysis for tennis matches. The staking system used by the analyst is 0.5u / 1u / 1.5u, with 1u representing 1% of your bankroll. Whether you're a casual fan looking to add some excitement to your tennis viewing experience or a serious bettor looking for an edge, '🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks' has something for everyone. Join the channel today to receive expert picks and take your tennis betting to the next level!

🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

19 Feb, 11:05

Doha 🇶🇦

🇧🇪 Bergs @ 3.63 - 0.5u
🇧🇪 Bergs o21.5 games @ 1.83 - 0.5u

I was a bit skeptical of Bergs’ quick transition from fast indoor courts to slower outdoor conditions, but there was no “hangover” effect for the Belgian, who dominated Bautista Agut yesterday.

Matchup-wise, I don’t think Medvedev is all that different from RBA, so Bergs should have a good idea of what to expect today. Yes, Medvedev is still a better player than RBA, but I’d still question whether Daniil is a top-10 or even top-15 player at the moment.

He had a very solid serving day by his standards yesterday (70% first serves landed, 10 aces, and NO double faults—something that will be very hard to replicate today), yet he was still very close to losing in straight sets to Khachanov, who simply faded away after failing to take his chances.

I like this price on Bergs, who has been trending up for months and has now established himself as a tour regular. I think he is skilled enough and has the necessary power to trouble Medvedev, whom I don’t trust in these slower conditions given his current form.
1,101
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

18 Feb, 23:37

Doha 🇶🇦

🏳️ Rublev -3.5 games @ 1.84 (Pinn) - 1.25u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Rublev has been prone to upsets in recent months, but most of them came against big hitters who were able to rush him and make him uncomfortable (Kovacevic, Marozsán, Fonseca, Wawrinka, Mensik). Nuno Borges, stylistically, is a different type of player—he enjoys long exchanges and isn’t known for powerful groundstrokes. Matchup-wise, I think this is a comfortable one for Andrey, where he should be able to dictate the majority of points.

These medium to medium-slow conditions also suit the favorite well, as he thrives on having time and being able to set up his forehand. It’s no surprise he holds a 14-5 record here.

Lastly, Rublev is known for starting tournaments slowly—he is often most vulnerable in his opening matches. However, once he finds his rhythm and adapts to the conditions, he becomes much harder to stop. Since 2023, he has a 24-7 record in his second matches (best-of-three sets format).

Overall, matchup-wise, Borges isn’t the kind of player who should trouble Rublev, especially on these medium to medium-slow courts. And the fact that this isn’t Rublev’s opening match this week gives me even more confidence in backing him.
1,715
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

18 Feb, 09:03

Pune Challenger 🇮🇳

🇯🇵 Noguchi @ 4.05 (Pinnacle) - 0.5u

Jacquet is eyeing an Indian hat-trick, but his odds look too short, considering he just played two full weeks in the very hot Indian weather. Additionally, Pune sits at an altitude of almost 600m, which usually requires some adjustment—but the Frenchman has barely had time to acclimate after winning in New Delhi on Sunday.

Noguchi had some surprise wins last year against players like Lajal, Bu, and McCabe, and this feels like a promising spot for him to pull off another upset—especially if Jacquet’s body starts feeling the effects of so much tennis in recent weeks.

But only small interest here because Noguchi can be easily runned over if Jacquet plays close to his 100%.
2,367
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 23:42

Doha 🇶🇦

🇪🇸 Bautista Agut @ 2.43 (Pinnacle) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

It’s a quick transition for Zizou Bergs, moving from indoors in France to the slower, windier outdoor conditions in Doha. Bautista Agut may be past his peak, when he used to dominate this event, but I still think he can force errors from a potentially flat Zizou.

I’d probably be more concerned about the veteran if he were facing a solid baseliner who thrives in long exchanges on these slowish courts. But against an offensive player who can leak errors when not in rhythm, I think Bautista Agut has a good chance to capitalize.
2,550
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 23:21

Pau Challenger 🇫🇷

🇱🇹 Butvilas @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

I’m expecting some letdown from Filip Misolic after playing seven matches in eight days last week. The Austrian, who thrives on clay, benefited significantly from the slow hard courts in Tenerife, but I doubt he’ll be able to replicate that level on the much slicker and quicker indoor hard courts in Pau.

Especially considering he had just one day between events and had to endure a lengthy trip from Tenerife to Pau, France (8+ hours), adjusting to these conditions won’t be easy.

Butvilas has been inconsistent over the past year, but this looks like a favorable spot for him to grab a win.
2,489
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 22:54

Doha 🇶🇦

🇵🇹 Borges -3.0 games @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1.25u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Virtanen indoors can never be written off, but on slowish outdoor hard courts, it’s a different story—especially in breezy conditions, where the chances of him losing control of his shots are even higher. Virtanen isn’t known for his patience, and I like Borges to exploit that.

The Portuguese won’t be rushed in these conditions as he was in his previous two losses (both indoors) and should really frustrate the Finn with his solid ground game. Overall, I think Otto Virtanen is one to oppose in these slowish, windy conditions in Doha, especially against someone with good baseline game like Nuno Borges.
2,304
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 22:48

Doha 🇶🇦

🇬🇷 Tsitsipas -2.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinnacle) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Medjedovic showed a great level last week to reach the finals in Marseille, but this quick turnaround looks challenging for the young Serb—going from Marseille’s indoor hard courts to Doha’s outdoor hard courts with breezy conditions in just 48 hours.

Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be the most trustworthy player on hard courts, but these slower conditions should encourage him—giving him more time and making his backhand less vulnerable than on quicker, slicker surfaces.

I expect a bit of a dip from Medjedovic after his efforts in Marseille and the drastic change in conditions that Tsitsipas should take care of.
2,305
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 16:28

Rio Open: 2nd Quarter Winner 🇧🇷

🇦🇷 Etcheverry @ 6.0 (bet365) - 0.5u

Two finalists from Buenos Aires have landed in Etcheverry’s quarter, and I think that presents a good opportunity for the Argentine to make a surprise run (he is the third favorite in the quarter).

Despite already being a rising star and having home crowd support, Fonseca might be a bit exhausted after his great effort in Buenos Aires. Plus, Muller has the tools to extend their opening match. Fonseca did outplay Etcheverry last week, but he played a superb match there—one I don’t expect him to replicate in back-to-back weeks.

Cerúndolo is the highest seed in this quarter, but facing someone like Etcheverry deep in the week, especially after a long run last week, should be challenging for Francisco.

Etcheverry was eliminated early in Buenos Aires, so I don’t mind backing the fresh and high-quality clay-courter to reach the semifinals this week in Rio.
2,587
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 15:34

Doha 🇶🇦

🇦🇺 Popyrin @ 3.01 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

I’m not sold on Draper being this short tonight. He clearly looked below his usual level in Australia a month ago and hasn’t competed since then due to a hip injury. That also hampered his preseason and the first weeks of this 2025 season. The Brit only returned to the courts two weeks ago, according to photos on social media, so I’m doubtful he’ll be quick and firing in this match—especially since he has never played here, and the conditions can be challenging with the wind.

Popyrin is winless this season (0-3), but I’m not that pessimistic about him. He will probably never be a Masters champion again in his career, and I do think that run in Canada was an outlier, but the Aussie is still someone who should be lingering around that top 50 mark and capable of pulling off upsets on his day, given his great upside and serve+forehand combo. The hard courts in Doha are quite slow, especially at night, and I think that works in his favor. He should be able to find his forehand more often than he would in quicker conditions, as the extra time allows him to run around it more effectively. So I don't mind some smaller interest on him tonight.
2,609
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

17 Feb, 00:00

Doha 🇶🇦

🇨🇿 Lehecka @ 2.28 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Both guys are coming into this match after retiring in their recent matches, but I think Lehecka should be the less affected of the two. His hamstring issue didn't look very serious when I was in Rotterdam—he was moving okay before retiring against Hurkacz, and he was already a set and a break down, so he probably didn’t fancy his chances of a comeback that night. Plus, this setback didn’t keep him out for too long—just one week.

Dimitrov, on the other hand, has been dealing with hip issues, and at his age (33), that sounds a bit concerning. He also hasn’t played for almost five weeks now. The Bulgarian is someone who can play the most beautiful tennis, but when he isn’t in rhythm, he can get quite erratic.

The slower conditions might not be ideal for Dimitrov, who prefers quicker, slicker courts so his slices work well, whereas Lehecka has the power and physicality to succeed even on gritty hard courts, as he has proven over the years.

Overall, I don’t like seeing Dimitrov as the favorite here. I think Lehecka, with his powerful groundstrokes and offensive gamestyle, can really move and test the world No. 13 physically, especially since Dimitrov may be carrying some rust early on this week.
2,853
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

16 Feb, 16:40

Rio 🇧🇷

🇪🇸 Carballes Baena @ 2.58 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Is Navone really that much better than Carballés Baena to be a 65% favorite? Not for me. Statistically, the Argentine has a slight edge in serve/return points won on clay over the last 52 weeks (103 vs. 101), but in clay ELO rankings, they are practically "neighbors" - Navone is 56th, and Baena is 57th.

This time last year marked Navone’s breakthrough tournament, where he qualified and made it all the way to the finals. As a result, he’s defending one-third of his total ranking points this week—a significant amount, especially for someone who isn’t used to defending points and is only in his second season on the main tour. I wouldn’t be surprised if that pressure gets to him a bit.

Overall, I’m skeptical of Navone this week. He’s likely to play with less freedom and added pressure, and I don’t see areas where he is clearly superior to the Spaniard. At these odds, I see good value on Carballés Baena.
2,831
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

14 Feb, 23:47

Doha Q 🇶🇦

🇨🇭Wawrinka set 1 @ 2.40 (Pinn) - 0.75u

The pattern with Stan Wawrinka is clear nowadays—he’s most dangerous in the first hour or so but tends to fade physically as the match goes on, leading to a noticeable drop in level. He has taken the opener but lost the match twice in the past two weeks, which is a good reflection of that trend. Also, since the US Open last August, Wawrinka is just 5-10 in ATP matches but holds a 8-7 record in first sets.

A few weeks ago, Stan was outplayed by Cazaux indoors at the Frenchman’s home tournament, but the slower conditions in Doha should work more in Wawrinka’s favor, as he prefers having extra time to set up his shots and not so much for the Frenchman, who tends to excel in quicker conditions. Meanwhile, Cazaux has taken a few weeks off since Montpellier, which raises some concerns about his physical condition—he was seen with left thigh strapping in Montpellier and also dealt with back issues in Australia about a month ago.

For me, this is a 50-50 matchup in terms of who takes the opener, so getting Wawrinka as a notable underdog looks like solid value.
3,314
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

14 Feb, 23:38

Doha Q 🇶🇦

🇦🇺 OConnell -2.0 games @ 1.92 (Pinn) - 1.25u

I think there’s a lot to like about O’Connell’s chances on Saturday. Doha is known for having some of the slowest hard courts on tour, which should hurt Watanuki more in this matchup, as he tends to play his best tennis in quicker conditions with his ultra-offensive game style.

Additionally, it gets quite breezy in this part of the world, and tomorrow is no exception, with overcast conditions and moderate wind. That’s another red flag for Watanuki, who plays high-risk, low-margin tennis—conditions like these could make his game even more erratic.

O’Connell, in contrast, is much craftier, plays with more spin, controls the ball better, and is overall more adaptable to these conditions. That’s reflected in his solid history at this venue (6-4 record, including pushing a strong version of Medvedev to three sets last year).

Their H2H is 3-2, with the Aussie just edging it, but all those matches were played on much quicker hard courts. This time, the conditions favor O’Connell, and he should be able to control this matchup.

Alternatives would be OConnell to win or -1.5 games.
3,341
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

14 Feb, 12:04

Marseille 🇫🇷

🇮🇹 Sonego vs Humbert 🇫🇷

Pick #1: Sonego @ 3.34 - 0.5u
Pick #2: Over 22.0 games @ 1.75 - 0.5u

Humbert looked a bit flat on Wednesday and ran straight to the toilet after the match, later confirming that he has been dealing with gastric issues. The Frenchman is a big, flat hitter who can be virtually unplayable when he’s clicking, but if he’s not feeling 100% in rhythm, his game can become quite erratic.

Given his recent fitness concerns, I suspect that might be the case here, so I think Sonego, who is riding on high confidence, has a good shot today. I’m splitting my unit and going with Sonego ML and overs.
3,735
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

13 Feb, 19:49

Buenos Aires 🇦🇷

🇦🇷 Navone @ 2.61 (Pinn) - 0.75u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

It’s a quick transition for Holger Rune, who is playing his first clay match since last summer and after finishing his Rotterdam campaign (indoor hard) on Thursday. He only started training in Buenos Aires on Sunday and was also dealing with the flu last week, making this a very demanding turnaround for the Dane. Given his history of physical issues in tougher conditions, this shift—from the European winter to South American humidity—could be especially challenging for him.

Additionally, Mariano Navone is a tough competitor in this part of the world, well-adjusted to the conditions and capable of making his opponents play a lot of balls. Even at altitude in Madrid last spring, where Rune had the advantage from the conditions, Navone wasn’t far from beating him in straight sets. This time, the circumstances seem more unfavorable for Rune, so I don’t like him as a clear favorite tonight.

There are question marks regarding Rune’s fitness/preparation, and I believe Navone is the right player to exploit that in South American conditions.
3,932
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

13 Feb, 14:38

Delray Beach 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Tien @ 2.33 / +133 (Pinn) - 1u

I’ve been eyeing this for a while now, but this shift making Tien a clear underdog is where I have to make a move.

Arnaldi is a fun watch with his flashy shots, but he’s not the cleanest hitter and has struggled against counterpunchers / players who thrive on their opponents’ errors. His recent losses to Munar, Goffin, Etcheverry, Muller, and Martinez, along with close battles against even the likes of Svajda and Van Assche, suggest a clear pattern.

Given that, I don’t mind taking Learner Tien at plus money tonight at his home soil. At just 19 years old, he’s already a great mover and counterpuncher, which makes him a solid play in this matchup.
3,746
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

13 Feb, 13:32

Marseille 🇫🇷

🏳️ Medvedev vs Herbert 🇫🇷

Pick #1: Herbert +5.0 games @ 1.76 - 0.5u
Pick #2: Medvedev O12.5 games @ 1.94 - 0.5u

Medvedev used to be an elite server and someone who barely missed from the baseline but both of his strenghts significantly declined in the last year or so. At the moment, he is still a good server, a great mover but someone who struggles to find winners and generate pace himself and heavily relies on his opponents performances, which negatively impacted his level. He mentioned himself back in Rotterdam that he is lacking confidence and also sent a cryptic message to his coach (?): “I have an answer [areas should be improved], but this doesn’t depend on me; it’s for someone else to improve." So yeah, he is not in the best spot currently and i think the best spot to attack it is to go overs in this match.

Herbert may not have the game from the baseline to compete but he is still a skillfull players who does a lot of serve&volleying, slicing, change of rhythm, which should work well against the current version of Daniil and his very deep return position. The frenchman really pushed him to the deciding sets in this very tournament 4 years ago when Medvedev was peaking so i dont mind him extending this time again too.

The only worry is Herbert's physical state and thats whats keeping me for taking him to win a set or even go bolder with ML as this is what he had to said after his recent win: "I'm coming in a little knackered to be completely honest, so we'll see what state I'm in tomorrow...”. Still, with some crowd behind his back and all family watching him, i like him to play at least one competitive set tonight.

Odds from Pinnacle.
3,856
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

12 Feb, 13:08

Delray Beach 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Tien -3.0 games @ 1.78 (Pinn) - 1.25u

I don’t think Walton’s main weapon—his serve, which earns him many points—will be as effective in these slower and breezy conditions. From the baseline, even at 19 years old, Tien holds a clear edge.

Additionally, Walton had two busy weeks in Brisbane, finishing there only on Sunday, so he’ll also have to deal with a quick turnaround and travelling to the other side of the globe. So given the circumstances, I don’t see Walton bringing his A-game, and Tien should take advantage of that.
3,991
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

12 Feb, 02:12

Marseille 🇫🇷

🏳️ Khachanov @ 1.75 (Pinn) - 1u

Everyone has been backing Medjedovic on my feed, but no, this isn’t a blind “public fade” or whatever you want to call it. I just think this heavy shift has created some value on Karen Khachanov. Yes, he can have some suspect matches, and Medjedovic is definitely capable of troubling top players, but Khachanov should still have at least a 60% chance in this matchup.

I mean, Medjedovic was a 3.20 underdog against Holger Rune a few weeks back, and now he’s 2.20 against Khachanov, who isn’t any worse than the Dane? I don’t think so. Medjedovic has great potential, but he hasn’t shown any consistency to justify being close to a pick’em against a top-30 player, no matter the outcome of this match.
4,129
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

12 Feb, 02:10

Marseille 🇫🇷

🇩🇪 Altmaier @ 2.37 (Pinn) - 1u

Virtanen is coming off the biggest win of his career on Monday, when he beat Korda in three sets. We saw a lot of his best tennis that day, and it would be very typical of him to go on and lose to Altmaier indoors in the next round. And that’s totally plausible, given how inconsistent he can be with his performances day in and day out, so I don’t mind going against him at a solid price today.

Plus, Altmaier has been playing good tennis in recent weeks. He’s a crafty player who gets a lot of balls back and offers variety, which is an effective tactic against power players like Otto. Let's not forget Altmaier’s recent indoor wins over Fils, Kovacevic, Fearnley, and Diallo, which shows that the German is no easy matchup for such guys.
3,961
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

11 Feb, 22:50

Buenos Aires 🇦🇷

🇩🇪 Zverev vs Lajovic 🇷🇸

Pick #1: Over 19.5 games @ 2.01 - 1u
Pick #2: Over 2.5 sets @ 4.07 - 0.25u

I think making someone as low as 1.07 in their opening match—when they have never played the Golden Swing—is absolute nonsense, regardless of the fact that we’re talking about the world No. 2. The humidity and heat make it tough for non-South Americans to fully adjust their bodies, and many top players have struggled to produce their best level early on during this swing. It takes a few competitive matches to properly get used to the conditions because, despite the same surface, they are very different from those in Europe. Plus, this is Zverev’s first match since the Australian Open final, so he might be a bit out of rhythm early on.

Lajović shouldn’t be this undervalued either. He’s a hot-and-cold type of player with solid upside, and his win over Carballés Baena on Monday was a great example of that—he started very poorly, hitting around 20 errors in the first 7-8 games, but then cleaned up his game and became a completely different player. The Serbian is the kind of guy who can suffer a bad loss one week and then beat several top players in a row the next. That’s just who he is, so I don’t mind backing him with these cheap lines because his upside is still good enough to compete with top players. It’s also a bonus that Lajović tends to perform well in Buenos Aires, as he enjoys both the venue and the conditions.

These two have met twice on clay, with both matches going to a fifth set at Roland Garros, so this matchup hasn’t been straightforward for Zverev. True, that was 6-7 years ago, but Zverev was already a top-5 player at the time, so he was still a heavy favorite back then.

So overall, I really don’t think this match will be as comfortable for Zverev as the bookies suggest—he might be vulnerable early on this week.

Odds from Pinnacle.
3,646
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

11 Feb, 16:44

So all selections for today (Tuesday, 11th) have been sent, quick recap:

⏳ Baez -3.5 games @ 1.86 - 1u
⏳ Darderi +1.5 sets @ 1.93 - 1u
⏳ Hijikata @ 2.38 - 1u
⏳ Moutet @ 2.33 - 1u

Good luck out there! ❤️
3,645
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

11 Feb, 15:42

Buenos Aires 🇦🇷

🇮🇹 Darderi +1.5 sets @ 1.93 (Pinn) - 1u

We see lots of South Americans peaking at this stage of the season, but I don’t think Francisco Cerúndolo is one of them. Maybe it’s the early stage of the season or some added pressure playing in Argentina that doesn’t let him perform at his best / justify favorite's status, but since establishing himself as a top player, he has been quite vulnerable here in Buenos Aires. Plus, he isn’t someone who is trustworthy at these short prices, as he can have some mental hiccups during matches.

Both guys are short on rhythm, as both injured themselves during the Australian Open—Darderi with his chest and Cerúndolo with his Achilles.

But yeah, given Cerúndolo’s nature, his shaky performances in recent years here, and Darderi’s capability in these conditions, I like the Argentine to really be tested today, hence drop a set.
3,914
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

10 Feb, 23:32

Buenos Aires 🇦🇷

🇫🇷 Moutet @ 2.33 (Pinn) - 1u

Similar thinking to my Lajovic over Carballés Baena bet here. In just nine days, Munar has already changed continents three times, meaning lots of travel, different climates, and time zones. Additionally, he had a lengthy week in Dallas, where he reached the semifinals, with his run only finishing on Saturday. That gave him just two days between an indoor event in Dallas and an outdoor clay tournament in Buenos Aires.

I think it’s just too quick of a turnaround for the Spaniard, whose body might be feeling the effects of that run and the overall travel, as I mentioned. Playing Moutet in your opening match can be tricky too, especially when you haven’t had enough time to get used to very different playing conditions, as the Frenchman offers a lot of variety and doesn’t give much rhythm to his opponents.
3,656
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

10 Feb, 23:02

Delray Beach 🇺🇸

🇦🇺 Hijikata @ 2.38 (Pinn) - 1u

I think bookies are still overvaluing Bu a bit after his sensational second half of the 2024 season. He has a nice, aggressive game that can hurt even top players on his day, but overall, he still lacks consistency, and his performances tend to vary.

Hijikata is much more underpowered, but he is a better mover, and I believe these slower conditions will benefit him more in this matchup. Plus, it’s always breezy in Delray Beach, so that should make it tougher for Bu to find his spots, as he is the one who plays lower-margin tennis.

So yeah, I think Hijikata is a bit undervalued here, given his abilities on slower hard courts. Just last year, the Aussie reached the quarterfinals in Winston-Salem and at this very event, so for me, he is definitely worth a shot against the Chinese player in these slower conditions that require patience and point construction.
3,861
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

10 Feb, 12:36

Marseille 🇫🇷

🇫🇮 Virtanen +1.5 sets @ 1.95 (Pinn) - 1u

I don’t think making Korda a very short favorite against Virtanen indoors is a good assessment. Sure, Virtanen doesn’t play his best tennis week in, week out—he’s someone who picks his matches—but more often than not, he tends to be motivated and ready to showcase his best abilities against top players. So, I don’t think he should be written off today, especially against Seb Korda, who is very inconsistent with his performances given his potential.

I took a look at Korda’s record as a short favorite (<1.40) in best-of-three sets format since the start of 2023: he played 44 matches and won just 14 in straight sets—that’s only 32%. That’s a horrendous win rate but a great indicator of how on and off he can be, even against lower-quality opposition. Plus, the American took a break after Australia (most likely due to a fitness setback), so he’s arriving with no rhythm.

So yeah, both players are kind of streaky, but at these odds, I don’t mind taking Virtanen to nick a set.
3,918
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

10 Feb, 10:18

Buenos Aires Outrights 🇦🇷

🇦🇷 Baez @ 19.0 (bet365) - 0.25u
🇦🇷 Navone @ 41.0 (bet365) - 0.25u

Rune is the top seed in the bottom half, and I want to exploit that. The Dane was sick last week in Rotterdam, and it’s unclear how his body will react to a drastic change in conditions—from 0°C cold to ~30°C temperatures and high humidity. His body is quite prone to breaking down in challenging conditions anyways, and he only had his first practice in Buenos Aires on Sunday. I feel like he’s someone who needs more time than that to properly acclimatize. Hence, the Navone take, as he should face Rune in his opening match (round 2). If everything pans out from here, Navone would face Fonseca (?), who, despite his talent and potential, has yet to prove he can play back-to-back-to-back matches against ATP-level opponents.

Sebastián Báez is my “safer” choice in this section, as he tends to play his best tennis during this time of the year.

When it comes to the upper half, I don’t think it’s certain that Zverev makes the final. He has a sneaky tough draw, with the likes of F. Cerúndolo, L. Musetti, Jarry, and others. We also shouldn’t forget that he has yet to play the Golden Swing in his career, and it can be tricky for debutants to properly adjust to these conditions. So, it’s not a given that Sascha finds his top level this week.

So yeah, I think the bottom half is more open, and I see scenarios where my Argentines go deep this week.
3,989
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

19 Jan, 22:42

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇷🇸 Djokovic +1.5 sets @ 1.81 (Pinn) - 1u
1,328
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

19 Jan, 21:37

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 De Minaur vs Michelsen 🇺🇸

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @ 1.71 (Pinn) - 1.25u

Alex De Minaur is the last remaining hope for the Aussies, and perhaps some nerves might come into play as the stakes get higher and he is expected to win. He wasn’t entirely convincing in his victory over Cerundolo (he came close to going down 0-2), with a -40 winners-to-unforced-errors ratio, which raises some red flags about his dominance and reliability at this stage of a Grand Slam. Now, he faces another tough test in Alex Michelsen, who has been growing in confidence recently. Michelsen isn’t someone ADM can rely on to commit unforced errors, so I see this as a topsy-turvy matchup that could turn into a real thriller.
1,758
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18 Jan, 22:45

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Lehecka 🇨🇿

Pick: Over 36.5 @ 1.83 (Pinn) - 1u

Another Czech opponent for Novak and another 36.5 line that I won’t be passing up. I got burned a few days ago with the same take, and I know many might be scared off by the improvements Djokovic showed in his recent match. However, beating Machac and then Lehecka in straight sets should be a very tough task. Plus, Machac looked subpar and couldn’t keep up with Nole, whereas Lehecka is red-hot right now and has yet to lose a match in 2025. A confident Lehecka can be tough to handle, and I could see him redlining and taking a set or two.
2,640
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18 Jan, 16:55

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇬🇧 Draper Set 1 @ 4.23 (Pinn) - 0.5u
🇬🇧 Draper O3.5 sets @ 2.22 (Pinn) - 0.5u

Everyone and their mothers are aware of Draper’s “three consecutive five-setters in a row,” and this has had a significant impact on these odds. While I am not optimistic about the Brit’s chances of winning the entire match, I think the heavy favoritism towards Alcaraz opens up some interesting opportunities in other markets that don’t require Draper to stay fit for potentially 3-4 hours. It’s going to be hot tomorrow, which might speed up the court a bit during the day session, potentially giving the Brit some additional hope early on, when he is the most likely to play his best tennis and not feel jaded. Draper is capable of putting Alcaraz in uncomfortable positions, especially in quicker conditions, so I don't mind splitting 1 unit for these 2 selections.
2,851
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17 Jan, 23:06

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇮🇹 Sonego vs Marozsan 🇭🇺

Pick: Over 39.5 @ 1.82 (Pinn) - 1u

Two volatile players, with one of them being prone to tiebreaks because of his very low break % (Sonego) and a huge chance for both of them to go so deep in a Slam. This situation brings added pressure, which could lead to moments of choking and, consequently, longer sets.
3,087
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17 Jan, 15:48

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Shelton vs Musetti 🇮🇹

Pick: Over 39.5 @ 1.82 (Pinn) - 1u

This should be a very close match between two stylistically different yet equally capable players. In matches involving Ben Shelton, who is a great server but a subpar returner, many long sets can be expected in these quicker conditions. Notably, 33% of Shelton’s sets have gone to a tiebreak here in Melbourne, and the average length of his sets is 10.7 games (over three years). So, given these trends and Shelton’s natural tendencies, this over should hit more often than not if both players win at least one set each.
3,213
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16 Jan, 13:04

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Machac 🇨🇿

Pick: Over 36.5 @ 1.83 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Pretty generous line here, I think. Djokovic hasn’t been near his best so far in Melbourne, and at this stage of his career, I’m not sure he can completely outplay his opponent for three sets in a row—especially against a great ball striker like Machac, who has troubled Djokovic a lot in this matchup. I think the correct line should be around 38.0 or even 38.5.
3,700
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15 Jan, 23:10

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🏳️ Medvedev -6.5 games @ 1.83 (Pinn) - 1u

I know this is a big spread, but I think it’s a tough matchup for Learner Tien. The kid is a great mover and counterpuncher, but he’s too underpowered to pose any serious threat to top players, especially someone like Medvedev, one of the greatest defenders in the game. We saw Tien struggle badly against Ugo Carabelli, a pure clay courter who doesn’t provide much pace, which clearly indicates that the youngster isn’t comfortable being the aggressor. On top of that, Tien had some back issues in the qualifiers and is now coming off a 4-hour battle to face one of the most physical opponents in a best-of-five format. For me, this is a recipe for Medvedev domination.
3,959
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15 Jan, 20:30

Pinnacle is now down to 2.23 but there is a 2.27 available on SX Bet 👀

Make sure you shop around and get the best possible odds for your bets - even the tiniest of difference can make a big impact to your profits in the long run.

👉 https://sx.bet/tennis/atp---australian-open/game-lines/L14623908/MONEY_LINE
3,886
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15 Jan, 19:11

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇩🇰 Rune @ 2.27 (Pinnacle) - 1u

There’s too much love for Matteo here. Personally, I don’t see Holger Rune as an underdog—at worst, I’d call it a pick’em. While Rune is prone to mental dips during matches, I still believe he’s not the most comfortable matchup for Matteo Berrettini. The Dane is athletic enough to chase down Matteo’s big hits and has the firepower to target and rush Matteo’s weaker backhand side.

Rune won both of their hard-court encounters last year in deciding sets, but statistically, those matches were heavily dominated by Rune, which kinda proves the point he has the right game to tackle Berrettini.

Hard-court ELO rankings also have Rune 16 positions higher. So overall, I’m happy to back Holger at this price.
3,739
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15 Jan, 16:18

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇩🇪 Altmaier @ 5.17 (Pinnacle) - 0.5u

I’ll have a small bet on this match, backing Altmaier to win. This is mainly due to potential fatigue in the 38-year-old Monfils, who had a long week in Auckland and spent 4 hours on court on Tuesday. Even though Altmaier is far from a solid hard-court player, I still think this matchup could pose some difficulties for the veteran. Monfils thrives on chasing balls, playing with pace, and hitting passing shots—that’s where he’s at his best. However, Altmaier is quite the opposite—he isn’t overly aggressive and won’t mind engaging in 10-15 shot rallies. This could trouble Gael, as being the aggressor hasn’t been his strong suit lately. Additionally, the weather won’t be hot tomorrow—only 19°C—so the slower conditions might make this a more physical and lengthy affair, which I’m not sure Monfils will welcome under these circumstances (busy schedule, best-of-five format).
3,887
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14 Jan, 20:47

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Vukic @ 4.34 (Pinn) - 0.5u
🇦🇺 Vukic +5.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinn) - 0.5u

Korda squeezed through his opener, but I’m still skeptical about his fitness when playing a busy schedule without breaks, especially after his injury comeback. His body has been sending some warning signals over the past few weeks and plus, he hasn’t reached the second week of a Slam in 7 or 8 attempts, so we can’t overlook the fact that he is prone to upsets at these stages. So I don’t mind taking some risks at these prices on Alexander Vukic. Watching the Aussie isn’t always enjoyable, but he has the weapons to succeed in these conditions and has beaten Korda before.
3,911
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14 Jan, 19:49

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇪🇸 Fokina vs Aliassime 🇨🇦

Pick: Over 36.0 @ 1.85 (Pinn) - 1u

This line looks appealing, considering how streaky and volatile these players can be. Of course, Aliassime arrives after winning Adelaide last week and leads the head-to-head 4-0, so he is heavily favored. However, that head-to-head record is quite misleading—Fokina has actually produced better numbers in this matchup, with a serve/return points total of 101 compared to the Canadian’s 99. Clearly, Fokina doesn’t mind playing FAA. The issue with Fokina is that he’s prone to choking and struggles to close out matches, but that doesn’t mean he can’t extend this one and make it competitive. Lastly, Aliassime has won only 4 Grand Slam matches in straight sets out of 17 since 2022, which shows that the Canadian is rarely dominant these days in comfortable victories.
4,128
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14 Jan, 12:27

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Bonzi -1.5 sets @ 1.70 (Pinn) - 1.5u

Passaro is one lucky man to find himself in Round 2 here in Melbourne: he lost in the qualifiers, entered as a lucky loser, and benefited from Dimitrov’s retirement. Despite all that, I really don’t see how he can trouble Benjamin Bonzi, who is clearly the better hard-court player in all departments and is also 136(!) spots higher in the hard-court ELO rankings. The Frenchman has been red hot since last autumn and has been tearing through Challenger opposition. I would be really surprised if Bonzi needs five sets here.

*if you need a higher odd, take -4.0 / -4.5 games
4,383
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13 Jan, 19:37

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇦🇷 Diaz Acosta @ 2.73 (Pinn) - 0.75u

Though the hard court gap between these two is significant, I believe physicality will play a huge role in this matchup. Zizou Bergs arrives after a lengthy week in Auckland, where he started in the qualifiers and went all the way to the final. The Belgian is known for his fragile body and fitness, and playing seven matches last week should have taken a lot of energy out of him, which could affect his performance in this longer format.

Though he had two days of rest, I’m not sure it’s enough. Additionally, his plane was delayed by over 8 hours, so it wasn’t the smoothest journey from Auckland to Melbourne. Lastly, history shows that Auckland finalists tend to struggle in their opening rounds here—in the last five editions, only 3 out of 10 have advanced past the first round in Melbourne.
4,422
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13 Jan, 18:48

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇳🇱 Griekspoor O41.5 @ 1.83 (Pinn) - 1u
🇳🇱 Griekspoor @ 3.48 (Pinn) - 0.5u

Hurkacz seems a bit too short for me in this matchup, so I believe the best options to consider are the over and Griekspoor’s moneyline. With two great servers but mediocre returners, breaks should be a rarity in these conditions. In fact, out of the 14 sets they have played, half of them were tiebreaks, with Griekspoor even winning 2 out of their 4 matches.

The only concern is Griekspoor’s fitness situation, which remains unknown—he didn’t play any lead-up events. However, this isn’t the type of match that will feature lengthy rallies, so perhaps that works in Griekspoor’s favor if he does have some physical issues.

Anyways, margins are very small in this matchup so I don't agree with such odds disparity between these two.
4,345
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13 Jan, 15:19

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇦🇷 Comesana @ 2.11 (Pinnacle) - 1u

In a battle of two clay courters, I find Comesana’s price appealing. While he may not have as much experience or data on this surface as Altmaier, he has a bit more pop in his shots, and his short résumé on quicker surfaces is worth noting: he beat Humbert at the US Open, Rublev at Wimbledon, pushed Musetti to four sets there, was just a few holds away from upsetting an in-form Bergs last week, and more. The Argentine is still developing on tour and on hard courts, but the potential and tools to translate his game from clay courts to other surfaces are evident.

Additionally, Comesana is 25 spots higher in the overall ELO rankings and 10 spots higher on hard courts, which is worth noting. I think this might be a real battle, but I do have Comesana as a slight favorite due to his more dangerous weaponry in these conditions.
4,379
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12 Jan, 15:59

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇩🇪 Struff +1.5 sets @ 1.84 (Pinn) - 1u
🇩🇪 Struff 1st set @ 2.30 (Pinn) - 0.5u

Aliassime is a well-known starter in opening rounds (just 55% 1st set won with -22% RO since 2022I) and only a 50% win rate in Grand Slams lifetime, which is poor considering he is a big favorite in most matches. And he is coming after a long week in Adelaide where he clinched the title on Saturday so he only had one day in between these tournaments which isn't ideal: potential fatigue and little time to adapt to courts in Melbourne.

Moreover, Jan Struff is the guy to avoid for top seeds - plays big tennis, doesn't give much rhythm, and can catch them cold, but he can get a bit chokey so I prefer to back him early on in a match and he has a strong record against top20 in first sets: 51% win rate since 2020 (59 matches).

So yeah, a strong starter like Struff against a slow starter in FAA who is also coming with little time to adapt - I like the German to take the opener and also take at least 2 sets.
4,858
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11 Jan, 23:15

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Rinderknech vs Tiafoe 🇺🇸

Pick: Over 38.0 @ 1.84 (Pinn) - 1u

Tiafoe has struggled to convincingly win his opening matches here in Melbourne, and now he’s facing a big test. Rinderknech has the ability to take the racket out of your hand when he’s feeling it, and history shows that the Frenchman thrives in big underdog spots where he isn’t expected to win. While he doesn’t often get over the finish line (just a 6-21 record vs. top 20 players), he regularly pushes those guys: a deciding set loss to Dimitrov at Bercy, a deciding set loss to Rublev at the US Open, a deciding set loss to Hurkacz in Montreal, and a four-set loss to Fritz at Wimbledon, among others.

This feels like another matchup where he can do some damage. In these conditions, a four-setter should cover this line more often than not.

*over 38.5 works too
4,787
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11 Jan, 23:05

Australian Open 🇦🇺

🇨🇦 Diallo -2.5 games @ 1.85 (Pinn) - 1u

I’m not big on Nardi and think he’ll have a tough time staying in this match. Diallo has made significant improvements last season and is still developing—a huge serve, better rally tolerance, more experience on the tour, and so on. Looking at the statistics for these two on hard courts against top 100 opponents, it’s clear who has the edge, and it’s Diallo comfortably: his serve/return points won total is 98 compared to Nardi’s 93. Hard court ELO rankings also favor the Canadian by a whopping 63 spots.

So yeah, this line is very appealing to me and, in my opinion, wrong by at least a game or even 1.5. Luca Nardi has done nothing to justify being only a 2.5-game underdog against a dangerous Diallo in these quick-ish conditions.
4,518
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09 Jan, 21:21

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇺🇸 Basavareddy @ 2.22 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

Changing camps this week. I was on Monfils last week in Brisbane, but under these circumstances, I don’t agree with him having better chances than he did last week. Monfils lacked energy yesterday, and it’s hard to trust a veteran this deep in a tournament—especially against a young player like Basavareddy, who doesn’t give much away and plays long rallies. The American has shown me enough this week to not be considered an underdog against a 38-year-old Frenchman playing his fourth match of the week, right before a Slam.
1,791
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08 Jan, 20:35

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇪🇸 Carballes Baena @ 2.52 (Pinn) - 0.75u

This is already the fifth match of the week for Bergs, and given his fragile physique, I wouldn’t have him as such a strong favorite at this level. Especially not against a player like Carballes Baena, who is an excellent grinder and mover, consistently forcing opponents to play a lot of balls.
2,227
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08 Jan, 20:07

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇬🇪 Basilashvili @ 2.17 (Pinnacle) - 1u

I can’t see Passaro as a slight favorite here. It’s never easy to trust Basilashvili, but I think his powerful groundstrokes can cause some damage and rush Passaro, who tends to prefer having more time on the ball, as is often the case with clay-courters. The hard-court ELO rankings also have the Georgian notably higher than his opponent, so this price looks worthy the risk.
2,390
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07 Jan, 20:20

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Giron @ 2.71 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

*at first i accidentally wrote 1u but that was typo - it is 0.75u play, sorry for confussion

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

This is purely a price play. Shapovalov continues to be volatile, and we’re never quite sure which version of him will show up, but at this price, I don’t mind taking the risk. The Canadian hasn’t shown much apart from his indoor title in Belgrade and was also dealing with a virus last week in Hong Kong. Although he looked physically fine in his recent match, with Zhang’s poor play helping him, we can’t be certain how much training he has done in recent days or how he’ll cope if Giron pushes him physically.

Marcos Giron pulled off several upsets last season, and I often find him slightly underrated. His quick movement should work well in this matchup, forcing Shapovalov to hit that extra ball, which could lead to errors. In any case, this should be a close match unless Shapovalov brings his A-game.
2,501
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06 Jan, 20:34

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Giron @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) - 1u

This price doesn’t make any sense. Whether it’s the ‘home advantage’ for the Aussie or the slight benefit of already having a couple of matches under his belt this season, I still can’t justify Vukic being favored in this one. Marcos Giron is more reliable and has been the better player overall, at least over the past 52 weeks: a higher win rate percentage, a higher total serve/return points won (101 vs. Vukic’s 98), a higher hold/break total (101 vs. Vukic’s 95), and he is 30 spots higher in the hard-court ELO rankings. It’s hard to pass up this price on the American here.
2,870
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06 Jan, 19:43

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Jones O20.5 @ 1.76 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Backing the local talent to push Holmgren in this one. Jones has a very solid physique for his age and can generate some cheap points off his serve, which could be crucial against Holmgren, who isn’t the best returner and is prone to playing tiebreaks.

The Aussie showed a good level against Kasnikowski last week, pushing him to a deciding set tiebreak (was broken just once in almost 3 hours), and last year (at just 17!) he also took sets off Shelbayh and Ugo Carabelli. I think the youngster is talented enough to stay competitive in at least one of the sets on Tuesday.
2,775
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06 Jan, 17:19

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇺🇸 Tien O21.5 @ 1.89 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Learner Tien, in my opinion, is another next-gen player who feels a bit overrated due to the hype, media attention, and taking advantage of weaker fields in the U.S. While the potential is likely there, he hasn’t been convincing enough to justify his current price, as he’s too inconsistent during matches. For example, he was a clear favorite (>65%) in 34 Challenger matches last year but only 13 of them went under 21.5 games, and that was mostly against players ranked between 250–400. His Challenger record on paper—35-9—looks impressive, but as mentioned earlier, that’s largely due to facing a high number of lower-ranked players. Out of those 44 matches, he faced only three top-150 opponents, which is quite telling.

Barrere’s best days may be behind him—when he was ranked inside the top 50—but he still remains a top-tier Challenger player. I don’t see Tien beating him convincingly in this matchup, given his tendencies.
2,792
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06 Jan, 17:01

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇧🇪 Blockx @ 1.87 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Spizziri is your typical U.S. college graduate who has been taking advantage of weaker Challenger fields in that region to climb up the rankings and peaking during the US Open. However, I’m not sure he can replicate his usual level in unfamiliar surroundings. This tournament marks his first event outside the U.S., and I’m a bit skeptical about his chances here. I don’t think this factor is fully accounted for in the odds, so I don’t mind backing a talented Belgian in this pick’em matchup.
2,716
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05 Jan, 20:31

Auckland 🇳🇿

🇪🇸 Carballes Baena @ 2.24 (Pinn) - 1u

While RCB is often labeled as a clay-courter, he is certainly capable of playing well on hard courts, especially on these slower ones in Auckland. Another important factor could be Monday’s weather conditions in Auckland, which are forecasted to be very windy. In such conditions, I’m more inclined to side with a steadier, more consistent player.

Lucas Pouille, on the other hand, prefers to go big and hit aggressive shots, often aiming for the lines, so facing a ‘wall’ like Carballes Baena in these conditions might not be ideal for him. Overall, I think Carballes Baena is a bit underrated in this matchup.
2,929
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05 Jan, 19:49

Australian Open Q 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Bolt +1.5 sets @ 1.97 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Alex Bolt is known for his old-fashioned game, and I think his net rushing and slices could be effective a gainst a flat hitter like McDonald, who trails in their long head-to-head 2-3. Additionally, we should never underestimate Aussies playing at their home slam, they tend to play inspired tennis here. So overall, I would be surprised to see Bolt completely overrun here in these circumstances.
2,899
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05 Jan, 19:09

Adelaide 🇦🇺

🇪🇸 Bautista Agut @ 2.13 (Pinn) - 1u

I like Bautista Agut’s chances against his volatile fellow Spaniard. Fokina can be hit-or-miss and tends to struggle against players who rely on their opponents’ errors, making this a less-than-ideal matchup for him. He also struggled against Munar last week, who can play as a ‘wall’ at times, and Hijikata is another player who has recently grinded out a win against Fokina.

Even at 36, Bautista Agut remains a very solid baseliner and dominated Fokina in both of their previous outdoor hard-court encounters (losing just seven games in two straight-set wins, though those matches were 2–3 years ago). For me, this price looks good enough to back Bautista Agut what looks a favorable matchup against the inconsistent Davidovich Fokina.
2,921
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04 Jan, 21:21

Adelaide Q 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Bonzi -3.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinn) - 1u

Not expecting much from Fabio here. It’s his first match of the season, and he’s up against a resurgent Benjamin Bonzi in the Australian heat. Bonzi is better suited to these conditions and has the advantage of match sharpness, having competed in Brisbane last week. Fabio has a tendency to tank or gift games if he goes down a break early, and that wouldn’t be surprising given the circumstances—season opener, tough conditions, and a stronger opponent.
2,906
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04 Jan, 19:56

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇯🇵 Nishikori -3.5 games @ 1.85 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Expecting Muller to face a reality check on Sunday. The Frenchman is having a dream week in Hong Kong, reaching the final by winning all four matches in deciding sets as an underdog in each of them. However, Muller has already spent almost 10 hours on court this week, so I wonder if he will be fresh enough to maintain such form. Additionally, he won’t have the ‘nothing to lose’ mentality, as this is the final, which might also affect his performance.

His opponent, Kei Nishikori, is rolling back the years this week and has spent almost half the time on court compared to Muller. But yeah, overall, I believe the Frenchman may struggle to sustain the level he has shown throughout the week due to the factors mentioned above. I expect Nishikori to leverage his experience and cruise to victory in this one.
3,281
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04 Jan, 19:16

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3,005
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02 Jan, 21:18

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇨🇿 Lehecka -3.0 games @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Don’t expect much from Jarry in this one. He thrives on dominating the baseline with his powerful hitting, but Lehecka can respond with similar firepower and expose Jarry's lack of movement on this surface. The big Chilean has consistently struggled to match top players on hard courts (unless their names are Tsitsipas or Ruud, who can be rushed), and I don’t see him keeping up with Lehecka, especially given Jarry’s poor return stats—he has one of the worst return ratings on tour, breaking serve only 12% of the time.
3,724
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02 Jan, 20:19

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇨🇳 Shang -2.0 games @ 1.93 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Marozsan is coming off a big win over Rublev today, which seems to have slightly inflated his chances in the upcoming matches. However, I haven’t been convinced by Marozsan’s performance against left-handers—he has only two main-level wins against higher-ranked left-handers in his career. Shang had the opportunity to go 3-0 in their head-to-head a few months ago (and 6-0 in sets!) but failed to capitalize on his chances and eventually lost the match despite winning more games and points that day. Now, he plays on a ‘home court’ and has shown a tendency to elevate his level when playing in front of a supportive crowd. Given the matchup and circumstances, I like Shang in this encounter.
3,652
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01 Jan, 20:54

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇭🇺 Marozsan +1.5 sets @ 2.05 (Pinnacle) - 1u

A decent price to oppose slow-starter Rublev in his opening match of 2025. Andrey tends to be a bit rusty early on and has covered his set spread in only 47% of matches (as the favorite in every single one) since the beginning of 2022. Marozsan pushed Rublev to three sets when they met in the summer of 2024, and I could see that happening again, especially considering the Hungarian has the slight advantage of having a match under his belt already and that raw power to put Rublev on the back foot.
3,783
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01 Jan, 19:14

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Mpetshi Perricard +1.5 games @ 1.81 (Pinnacle) - 1.25u

I'm not sure this is the right matchup for Tiafoe to be a 1.5-game favorite. The American has one of the lowest first-serve percentages (58.3%), which is not an ideal stat when facing one of the biggest servers on tour as fewer first serves mean more pressure during service games. Additionally, Mpetshi is leading in aces (averaging 19 per match), while Tiafoe statistically (12.9% of serves are aces against him) concedes the most aces during matches - another red flag for Tiafoe fans. Lastly, Tiafoe isn't known for thriving or playing his best in smaller events so considering the matchup and these odds, I believe Mpetshi is the right choice here.
3,883
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31 Dec, 21:41

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇯🇵 Nishioka @ 2.96 (Pinnacle) - 0.75u

A smaller stake on Nishioka seems reasonable here. He tends to perform at his best when he can use his opponent's pace and redirect it, which should work well against Lehecka, an ultra-aggressive player. With most players still looking for their rhythm, Nishioka has the advantage of already having played three matches, compared to the Czech, who has only played one. This timing might favor Nishioka, as his style relies more on consistency and control rather than raw power and riskier style, unlike his opponent.
3,849
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31 Dec, 17:45

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇮🇹 Sonego @ 2.35 (Pinnacle) - 1u

If this was played few seasons ago id agree with Norrie being a clear favorite but his biggest strenght - baseline consistency - has decreased significantly. The brit isnt the wall he used to be so im not sure he could be favored against anyone around the top50 zone. Sonego is a streaky animal but i dont mind backing him at this rate.
3,892
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30 Dec, 20:00

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

🇯🇵 Nishikori @ 2.41 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Really dont mind fading a volatile Shapo at this price, let alone against a capable Nishikori who showed positive signs of comeback at the second part of the season. Kei enjoys a lefty matchup because of his elite backhand and also Shapovalov just withdrew from doubles in Hong Kong citing ilness, so there is a chance he wont be at his best tomorrow. Nishikori isnt the most consistent either but he has been on a positive curve in recent months and his price looks worthy the risk.
2,692
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30 Dec, 19:59

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Monfils @ 1.88 (Pinnacle) - 1u

Will have another go against Basavarredy this week. Still think he cannot be priced this way without not having any real weapons against an experienced tour level player in Monfis. The young american was a bit fortunate he got a jadded version of Pouille few days back but Monfils should have an upper hand in every department against Basavareddy. This is no pickem to me.
2,547
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30 Dec, 10:32

Brisbane 🇦🇺

🇦🇺 Kyrgios @ 2.21 (Pinn) - 1u

Mpetshi had a dream week in Basel indoors at the end of the 2024 season, but I see that performance as an outlier for such a one-dimensional player. He was named Most Improved Player of the Year, and while there’s media hype around him, I think he’s being overvalued in the betting markets. Mpetshi is very serve-dependent, meaning he can beat or lose to anyone on a given day. His inconsistency is evident—losing to Seyboth Wild indoors but then winning the ATP 500 Basel. Moreover, he’s just 2-6 on outdoor hard courts in 2024, with losses to players like Hanfmann and Etcheverry.

Nick Kyrgios is returning from a long injury break, and while he may not reach his 2022 form, he’s still one of the most talented players of the last decade. Rust is a concern, but Kyrgios should handle it better than most because of his great hands. The real challenge for him will be back-to-back matches, but that’s not an issue in this spot.

Overall, I believe Mpetshi is overrated in this matchup because of the hype, and Kyrgios is undervalued. Nick can match Mpetshi’s serve and has a clear edge from the baseline so I don't mind this price for the Aussie.
2,936
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29 Dec, 21:45

Canberra Challenger Q 🇦🇺

🇬🇧 Evans @ 1.84 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Strange to see Evans playing Challenger qualies but thats the reality now. Still, i think he remains a challenging opponent at this level, especially against youngster who play offensive tennis, just like Ethan Quinn, and can be easier disrupted with Evo's slicing and net rushing abilities. Also, Quinns low margin tennis is perhaps a bit better suited indoors whilst the american has only 3 victories outdoors (3/15 won in total) against top160 (Evans rank zone) players in his career. Expecting Evans to outsmart the youngster and would put him a little shorter here.
2,877
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28 Dec, 22:57

Hong Kong Q 🇭🇰

🏳️ Kotov @ 1.70 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Buy low situation here with Pavel Kotov. He had a horror ending to 2024, losing his last 5 matches of the season and just 1 set out of 11. However, its a new season now, a clean sheet of paper starts, and i expect Kotov to turn things around again. He isnt that bad to start losing brutally all of a sudden and most importantly Valentin Royer is far from opposition that was beating Kotov. I still think Pavel Kotov is a head above his today opponent and we are getting this generous price on him only because bookies baked his 2024 ending too heavily into calculations.
3,086
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28 Dec, 22:15

Brisbane Q 🇦🇺

🇫🇷 Pouille @ 2.46 (Pinn) - 1u

There has been a lot of noise around the youngster Basavareddy because he is the nextgen and potential future top player but perhaps this attention has drawn some overreaction to betting markets. The young american won 2 Challenger titles and reached 4 finals in 2024 but it needs to be said all of those results were in N. America where fields arent usually the strongest (nothing compared to Europe where his opponent competes and dominates). Lucas Pouille is a tough cookie who is not only more established but also 15 spots higher in hard elo rankings. Im still waiting for Basavareddy to prove himself against proper opposition but until he does that, i cant have him as a notable favorite in this matchup. I think Pouille deserves to have equal chances in this one.
2,951
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28 Dec, 21:46

Brisbane Outright Winner 🇦🇺

🇮🇹 Berrettini @ 15.0 (bet365) - 0.25u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Matteo is the fourth favorite this week but his price looks worthy the play. He looks healthy again and when he is fit he remains one of the better player in fast conditions. Other 3 favorites are Novak Djokovic, who hasnt played a competitive match for several months and comes with questionable motivation for this small event; Rune, who is still a rollercoster and could struggle in tough (heat+humidity) conditions, and Dimitrov, who has won just one title in 7 years. I believe the italian can go deep on these fast paced courts with his serve+forehand combo.
2,950
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28 Dec, 03:25

United Cup 🇦🇺

🇪🇸 Carreno Busta +1.5 sets @ 1.85 (Pinn) - 1u

LIKE IF TAILING! ❤️

Tsitsipas has been a dissapointment in quick conditions as of late and PCB has shown that he can replicate his pre injury level in recent months. Plus, the spaniard has a match advantage under his belt as he opened his 2025 season with an inspiring performance yesterday. Expecting not the best version of Tsitsipas in this circumstances while PCB still has the level to trouble top players.
3,143
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27 Dec, 17:33

Just finished selecting my ATP Fantasy players for 2025 season, want to join and compete for cash prizes?

💶 PRIZEY MONEY: €4,000 - €9,000
✅ Pick 20 players (budget: 295M)
🔓 Entry: €15

Interested? Join: shorturl.at/zepIg
3,331
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27 Dec, 15:34

United Cup 🇦🇺

🇭🇷 Coric +1.5 sets @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1u

Aliassime is a known slow starter in opening rounds in recent seasons, let alone its the first match of this season and his first performances in 2024, 2023, 2022, have been below par: 3 straight losses as a favorite (1.4; 1.1; 1.65). So there are reasons to believe this match will be shaky for him and thats why i rate him slightly overrated in the first match of the season. Coric's level hasnt been inspiring in recent months but when FAA struggles its usually because he beats himself and not his opponents outplays him. And lastly, opposing Aliassime in opening matches statistically has been a profitable strategy for the last 3 seasons: he won only 37% of those matches in straight sets and backing opponents to win a set blindly generated 13% ROI. So yeah, the tendency of FAA underperforming is quite clear, thats why i take Coric to win a set.
3,582
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24 Dec, 15:30

United Cup 🇦🇺

🇧🇷 Monteiro +3.5 games @ 1.74 (Pinn) - 1u

Zhang type of player that tends to play better as an underdog but when he is expected to win, his level may drop down a bit so i dont mind attacking him with this spread. Monteiro can be a bit underrated on fast surfaces and his recent performances for his country are encouraging: covered 3.5 against Arnaldi, Griekspoor, even beat Bergs and Rune. The brazilian becomes very serve oriented in these conditions, plays a good amount of tiebreaks / close sets so his +3.5 looks appealing against a volatile opponent.

*note that this line was tipped on 24th for my followers (on telegram first)
4,565
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02 Dec, 16:22

⏳ A bit less than 4 weeks left until 2025 tennis season 🎾
6,795
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25 Nov, 22:19

Maia Challenger 🇵🇹

🇫🇷 Janvier +1.5 sets @ 2.0 (Pinn) - 1u
8,291
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25 Nov, 22:18

Maia Challenger 🇵🇹

🇩🇰 Moller -3.0 games @ 1.88 (Pinn) - 1u
7,930
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21 Nov, 09:16

Davis Cup 🌍

🇦🇺 De Minaur @ 2.81 / +181 (Pinn) - 1u

De Minaur has been a tough opponent for Fritz historically, even last week the aussie could have beaten him in straight sets. Alex should be better attuned to conditions and perhaps a bit fresher compared to Fritz who went all the way in Turin last week and arrived in Malaga just few days back.
8,526
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20 Nov, 09:11

Davis Cup 🌍

🇨🇦 Canada @ 2.35 / +135 (Pinn) - 1u
7,101
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16 Nov, 16:37

ATP Finals 🌎

🇳🇴 Ruud +5.5 games @ 1.86 (Pinn) - 1u

As much as Sinner feels invincible these days, such line is worth a play in these quick and serve oriented conditions. Ruud has been sneaky good on serve in Turin, holding 91% of times this week and 85% overall (3 editions). Casper has even covered this line here against Djokovic and twice.
8,258
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13 Nov, 12:34

ATP Finals 🌎

🇩🇪 Zverev U22.0 games @ 1.77 (Pinn) - 1u
8,464
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12 Nov, 18:35

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz +4.5 @ 1.77 (Pinn) -1u
8,145
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11 Nov, 20:12

Kobe Challenger 🇯🇵

🇸🇪 Ymer +1.5 sets @ 1.75 (Pinn) - 1u

Challenging travel spot for Bu who went deep last week in Metz, France and starts his Challenger campaign in Kobe, Japan on tuesday. Let alone the chinese has already secured the main draw entry for the Australian Open and also has withdrew from the upcoming weeks tournament in Yokohama, so i wonder how dedicated he is to push himself in Kobe this week. Though Ymer is a player of lower quality, he is better aclimatized and should be in better rhythm. I like him to nick at least one set here.
6,066
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11 Nov, 12:39

It is reported that Carlos Alcaraz is having a bit of a cold in Turin 🤧

Alexander Zverev to finish first in the group at 3.0 / +200 might be a look
5,804
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10 Nov, 10:30

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz @ 2.04 / +104 (Pinn) - 1u
🪜 1st set O12.5 @ 3.30 / +230 (Pinn) - 0.75u

As i wrote in my tournament preview, there are a lot of tiebreaks played in Turin historically (fast conditions, elites players dont get broken easily, etc) and especially in the opening matches when players arent as used to conditions as later in the week, maybe its a bit more difficult to find rhythm on return, etc: 8/12 opening matches (4 in 2021, 4 in 2022, and 4 in 2023) have gone to a first set tiebreak in Turin which is telling. So thats my argument for over 12.5 games in set 1. Regarding Fritz ML, i feel like he is just more reliable in this matchup. Medvedev hasnt been playing his best for weeks now, maybe that shoulder issue is still bothering him and in these conditions, it should be the russian who is more likely to throw a stinker service game which should be crucial.
4,964
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

08 Nov, 19:14

Have a good friday! ✌️

✅ Shapovalov @ 1.79 - 1.5u
✅ Bonzi @ 2.06 - 1u

2-0, +2.25u 💵
4,678
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08 Nov, 14:55

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Bonzi @ 2.06 / +106 (Pinn) - 1u
4,581
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08 Nov, 10:16

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇨🇦 Shapovalov @ 1.79 (Pinn) - 1.5u
4,844
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07 Nov, 15:06

🌍 ATP Finals - What Do You Need To Know

Useful? Leave ❤️

📍Location: Turin (4th edition)

Start date: Sunday, 11-10
End date: Sunday, 11-17

Groups:
- Sinner; Medvedev; Fritz; De Minaur
- Zverev; Alcaraz; Ruud; Rublev
*alternate: Dimitrov

📊 Players ranked by ELO on hard:
1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Medvedev
5. Fritz
6. De Minaur
7. Rublev
8. Ruud

💵 Prize money:
Participation fee: $331k (for 3 matches)
Round robin match win: $396.5k
Semi final match win: $1.12m
Final win: $2.2m
Undefeated champion: $4.88m

🗻 Conditions in Turin:
Fastest on tour (combination of quick hard court and altitude: ~240m)

Underdogs:
2021: 27% won
2022: 60% won
2023: 13% won
- Overall in Turin: 33% of underdogs have won

Tiebreaks in Turin:
2021: 47% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2022: 53% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2023: 43% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
- Overall, 48% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
*sample size: 44

Lenghtiness of first sets in Turin:
Over 10.5 games: 49% of matches
Over 12.5 games: 30% of matches
*sample size: 44

However, there is a notable trend that lenghty opening set is more likely in the first 4 matches of the tournament, i.e. opening matches for everyone (sunday, monday):

- a first set tiebreak was played in 67% of first 4 matches (sample size: 12)

Due to fast conditions, players need some time to adjust to conditions and without much rhythm its difficult to succeed on return games early on, hence players are holding more frequent and playing longer sets in their opening matches. Thats my theory.

Lastly, be aware of players that will be playing dead rubbers - they can be sneaky dangerous. Though they dont have chances to reach semis, they are still playing for almost $400k and without any pressure, which can improve performance.

Remember, in tennis, when a player NEEDS to win its not an argument to back such player. In some cases, it can even serve as a negative factor as its an added pressure.

Useful? Leave ❤️

Lastly, who is your tournament winner and why is it Sinner? 🤔
5,441
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06 Nov, 21:24

Matsuyama Challenger 🇯🇵

🇯🇵 Moriya +1.5 sets @ 2.45 (Pinn) - 1u
4,340
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06 Nov, 09:31

Metz 🇫🇷

🇨🇳 Bu -2.5 games @ 1.82 (Pinn) - 1u
4,890
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06 Nov, 09:27

Metz 🇫🇷

🇧🇪 Bergs -2.5 games @ 1.8 (Pinn) - 1u
5,259
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06 Nov, 09:26

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🏳️ Safiullin -2.0 games @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1u
5,497
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06 Nov, 02:21

I think there is some value in Ruud's quarter who is likely to withdraw from Metz and head to Turin, just like other participants.

Halys is 1.25 to beat Herbert and expected to be 2.2 in the quarterfinal by his quarter outright price, which i dont agree with assuming he would play either Bonzi or LL for place in semis.

Whereas Bonzi will likely play LL (and not Ruud) today and Halys/Herbert in quarters so 3.40 seems too big as well.

I dont mind Halys 2.75 and Bonzi 3.40, can even back both because one of them should reach semis.

But if i had to take one, i would probably go with Halys at 2.75. Its not impossible that Ruud plays his opening match in Metz and then withdraws, just like Rublev did.
5,385
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06 Nov, 02:20

Casper Ruud in Oslo?

Scheduled to play in Metz today but will he be there?
3,951
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05 Nov, 12:25

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Mannarino @ 1.94 / -106 (Pinn) - 1u
4,212
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05 Nov, 12:25

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Gaston @ 1.89 / -112 (Pinn) - 1u
4,311
🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

05 Nov, 12:25

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇦🇷 Etcheverry -2.0 @ 1.88 (Pinn) - 1u
4,436

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