🎾 Tennis Masterr Picks

Davis Cup 🌍

🇨🇦 Canada @ 2.35 / +135 (Pinn) - 1u

ATP Finals 🌎

🇳🇴 Ruud +5.5 games @ 1.86 (Pinn) - 1u

As much as Sinner feels invincible these days, such line is worth a play in these quick and serve oriented conditions. Ruud has been sneaky good on serve in Turin, holding 91% of times this week and 85% overall (3 editions). Casper has even covered this line here against Djokovic and twice.

ATP Finals 🌎

🇩🇪 Zverev U22.0 games @ 1.77 (Pinn) - 1u

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz +4.5 @ 1.77 (Pinn) -1u

Kobe Challenger 🇯🇵

🇸🇪 Ymer +1.5 sets @ 1.75 (Pinn) - 1u

Challenging travel spot for Bu who went deep last week in Metz, France and starts his Challenger campaign in Kobe, Japan on tuesday. Let alone the chinese has already secured the main draw entry for the Australian Open and also has withdrew from the upcoming weeks tournament in Yokohama, so i wonder how dedicated he is to push himself in Kobe this week. Though Ymer is a player of lower quality, he is better aclimatized and should be in better rhythm. I like him to nick at least one set here.

It is reported that Carlos Alcaraz is having a bit of a cold in Turin 🤧

Alexander Zverev to finish first in the group at 3.0 / +200 might be a look

ATP Finals 🌎

🇺🇸 Fritz @ 2.04 / +104 (Pinn) - 1u
🪜 1st set O12.5 @ 3.30 / +230 (Pinn) - 0.75u

As i wrote in my tournament preview, there are a lot of tiebreaks played in Turin historically (fast conditions, elites players dont get broken easily, etc) and especially in the opening matches when players arent as used to conditions as later in the week, maybe its a bit more difficult to find rhythm on return, etc: 8/12 opening matches (4 in 2021, 4 in 2022, and 4 in 2023) have gone to a first set tiebreak in Turin which is telling. So thats my argument for over 12.5 games in set 1. Regarding Fritz ML, i feel like he is just more reliable in this matchup. Medvedev hasnt been playing his best for weeks now, maybe that shoulder issue is still bothering him and in these conditions, it should be the russian who is more likely to throw a stinker service game which should be crucial.

Have a good friday! ✌️

✅ Shapovalov @ 1.79 - 1.5u
✅ Bonzi @ 2.06 - 1u

2-0, +2.25u 💵

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Bonzi @ 2.06 / +106 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇨🇦 Shapovalov @ 1.79 (Pinn) - 1.5u

🌍 ATP Finals - What Do You Need To Know

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📍Location: Turin (4th edition)

Start date: Sunday, 11-10
End date: Sunday, 11-17

Groups:
- Sinner; Medvedev; Fritz; De Minaur
- Zverev; Alcaraz; Ruud; Rublev
*alternate: Dimitrov

📊 Players ranked by ELO on hard:
1. Sinner
2. Alcaraz
3. Zverev
4. Medvedev
5. Fritz
6. De Minaur
7. Rublev
8. Ruud

💵 Prize money:
Participation fee: $331k (for 3 matches)
Round robin match win: $396.5k
Semi final match win: $1.12m
Final win: $2.2m
Undefeated champion: $4.88m

🗻 Conditions in Turin:
Fastest on tour (combination of quick hard court and altitude: ~240m)

Underdogs:
2021: 27% won
2022: 60% won
2023: 13% won
- Overall in Turin: 33% of underdogs have won

Tiebreaks in Turin:
2021: 47% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2022: 53% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
2023: 43% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
- Overall, 48% of matches featured at least a tiebreak
*sample size: 44

Lenghtiness of first sets in Turin:
Over 10.5 games: 49% of matches
Over 12.5 games: 30% of matches
*sample size: 44

However, there is a notable trend that lenghty opening set is more likely in the first 4 matches of the tournament, i.e. opening matches for everyone (sunday, monday):

- a first set tiebreak was played in 67% of first 4 matches (sample size: 12)

Due to fast conditions, players need some time to adjust to conditions and without much rhythm its difficult to succeed on return games early on, hence players are holding more frequent and playing longer sets in their opening matches. Thats my theory.

Lastly, be aware of players that will be playing dead rubbers - they can be sneaky dangerous. Though they dont have chances to reach semis, they are still playing for almost $400k and without any pressure, which can improve performance.

Remember, in tennis, when a player NEEDS to win its not an argument to back such player. In some cases, it can even serve as a negative factor as its an added pressure.

Useful? Leave ❤️

Lastly, who is your tournament winner and why is it Sinner? 🤔

Matsuyama Challenger 🇯🇵

🇯🇵 Moriya +1.5 sets @ 2.45 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇨🇳 Bu -2.5 games @ 1.82 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇧🇪 Bergs -2.5 games @ 1.8 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🏳️ Safiullin -2.0 games @ 1.91 (Pinn) - 1u

I think there is some value in Ruud's quarter who is likely to withdraw from Metz and head to Turin, just like other participants.

Halys is 1.25 to beat Herbert and expected to be 2.2 in the quarterfinal by his quarter outright price, which i dont agree with assuming he would play either Bonzi or LL for place in semis.

Whereas Bonzi will likely play LL (and not Ruud) today and Halys/Herbert in quarters so 3.40 seems too big as well.

I dont mind Halys 2.75 and Bonzi 3.40, can even back both because one of them should reach semis.

But if i had to take one, i would probably go with Halys at 2.75. Its not impossible that Ruud plays his opening match in Metz and then withdraws, just like Rublev did.

Casper Ruud in Oslo?

Scheduled to play in Metz today but will he be there?

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Mannarino @ 1.94 / -106 (Pinn) - 1u

Metz 🇫🇷

🇫🇷 Gaston @ 1.89 / -112 (Pinn) - 1u

Belgrade 🇷🇸

🇦🇷 Etcheverry -2.0 @ 1.88 (Pinn) - 1u