Break Point Betting ๐พ
2024 Season ๐
๐น Profit: +47.90 units
๐น ROI: +1.6%
๐น Bets: 2,234
๐น Win Rate: 44%
๐น Avg Odds: 2.71 / +171
๐น Avg Bet Size: 1.31 units
What a season it turned out to be! The 2nd season posting publicly and the 1st season going paid.
Started with a bang across the Aussie summer and then into a big drawdown post Aus Open. Found my way back through the early clay period before a very up and down stretch through the mid year, which led into a terrible Wimbledon! This dramatic drawdown was tough, my biggest Iโve experienced, going from +45 units at around 7% ROI, to 0 profit ๐ต๐ช
It was a fight back from September onwards and sticking to my process and believing in myself, we finished the year quite strong ๐ช
It was NEVER easy, and I never expect it to be. Thereโs NO easy money. As a high volume better across the ATP Tour, the ups and downs will occur A LOT. Some massive variance, beat beats, bad bets, missed prices, my year had it all. I know bias plays a part certainly, but this year felt like no matter what, Iโd pull the short straw. Obviously with no data to back that up it means nothing. In the long run, itโll all even out eventually ๐
Of course a MASSIVE learning curve as everything in life can be. Another year of data, angles and trends to analyse. Certainly things to change and approach in different ways. New things to come, and hopefully increase my edge across 2025.
One big factor, 52% of my bets were placed at game day Pinnacle odds. Meaning, no early bets, no steam chasing, no stale lines, didnโt hammer soft books. Of course not the most profitable strategy at all! Thatโs quite well known. But with a premium service, itโs not fair/accurate to provide plays 1+ days in advance when thereโs little liquidity. I was posting generally 2-3 hours pre game when the line is almost at its sharpest. Without a doubt, doing the opposite and playing soft books, steam chasing, early lines would have produced much more profit. But for the service, it was something I had to sacrifice and it truely revealed the difficulty to beat game day sides.
2023: +178.60 units @ 11.1%
2024: +47.90 units @ 1.6%
Very proud of my stats, across 3174 tracked bets, I hold a pretty highly respectable profit and return. All bets have been tracked ACCURATELY and there are bet slips for every play as I bet them of course personally.
The premium group in itself was a new thing to me and certainly a challenge. Both in good ways and bad ways. It will be something I analyse over the off season but one thing I hold my head on for the service was the ability to back up DAY IN, DAY OUT. When times were tough I didnโt throw the towel in, crack it or let emotion control me. Some may underestimate the pressure of providing DAILY tips for 100+ members.
Finally, thank you to EVERY member that came through this group this season! โค๏ธ
Some were AMAZING, and some may not have been ๐
To throw yourself out publicly like this and cop the daily scrutiny is tough but itโs worth it with all the legends that have communicated through this group! Iโm extremely grateful for your faith and trust. I hope you all enjoyed this season and I look forward to whatโs ahead in the future ๐
