Atmospheric rivers are shifting poleward from last 4 decades :
Atmospheric rivers are long narrow bands of water vapour in the sky that brings heavy rainfall and storms mainly west coast of USA and Europe are shifting towards higher lati and that’s changing weather patterns around the world.
This shifting is worsening droughts in some regions , intensifying flooding in others, and putting water resources of many communities at risk. When atmospheric rivers reaches in arctic can also melt the sea ice, affecting the global climate.
New study published in university of California shown that atmospheric rivers have shifted about 6-10 degrees towards the poles over the past 4 decades.
Areas affected by atmospheric rivers in the world:
They form in many parts of the world and provide over half of the mean annual rainfall and runoff in these regions, including the US south east coast and west coast, Southeast Asia, New Zealand, northern Spain, Portugal, UK and South central chile.
They are commonly seen in extra tropics a region between 30-50 degrees in both north and south hemisphere.
Atmospheric rivers get the water vapours from tropics atmospheric instability of the jet streams allows them to curve poleward.
Our study shows that the atmospheric rivers have been shifted poleward over the past four decades. In both hemispheres, activity has increased along 50 degrees and decreased along 30 degrees since 1979.
Cause for poleward shifting of atmospheric rivers :
One main reason for this shift in sea surface temperatures in eastern tropical Pacific. Since 2000, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific have had a cooling tendency, which affects atmospheric circulation worldwide. This cooling , often associated with La Niña conditions, pushes atmospheric rivers towards the poles.
The poleward shifting of atmospheric rivers can be explained as a chain of interconnected processes.
- during La Niña condwhen sea surface temperatures cools in the eastern tropical Pacific, the walker circulation get stronger causing the tropical rainband to expand. The expanded tropical rainfall, combined with changes in atmospheric eddy patterns , results in high pressure anomalies and wind patterns that steer atmospheric rivers poleward.
—-conversely during the ElNino conditions, with warmer sea surface temperatures, the mechanism operates in the opposite direction, walker circulation get weaker, shifting the atmospheric rivers less away from equator
Why does this poleward shift of atmospheric rivers matters?
It can affect the local climate.
— in the subtropics, where atmospheric rivers are becoming less common, the results into longer droughts and lesser water. That leads to water crisis, rivers and lakes dried up, agriculture get adversely affected, creating farmer crisis and food shortages due to water shortages.
—- in higher latitudes, atmospheric rivers moving poleward could leads to more extreme rainfall, flooding, landslides, storms and snowfall
—- in Arctic, more atmospheric rivers could speed up sea ice melting, adding global warming and affecting animals of polar regions, 36% increase in summer rainfall
—- due to global warming the frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers increased because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture
—- predicting and forecasting weather conditions remains more uncertain and difficult.