New World Geopolitics

🏹 Ворог продавив лівий фланг Курського угрупування Сил Оборони України

⚔️ Вкрай жахливий день сьогодні в районі Новоіванівки: вступати в бій довелося артилеристам та дронщикам. Ворог за останній час стягнув чимало техніки та живої сили. Перші спроби хоч і досягли тактичного успіху біля Снагості, але з часом були повністю зупинені. До сьогоднішнього дня.

📋 Ворог зараз намагається закріпитися в районі н.п. Новоіванівка та Зелений Шлях. Сформувалася вкрай ненадійна тактична обстановка для суміжних підрозділів північніше.

🗡 Сьогодні в Інтернет випливла інформація про підготовку нового армійського корпусу ЗСУ. Для чого? Самі військові не знають відповіді. Зі слів нашого побратима — це має вийти "ху**вий аналог ОК". В той же час про формування тактичних з'єднань у вигляді дивізій, про які вже не раз казали військові, мови нема.

🤷🏻‍♂️ Курське угрупування наших військ — це великий "вінегрет" з відповідною взаємодією. Вайб сьогоднішнього дня: як би прикро це не звучало — ураження танку Сил Оборони fpv-дроном Сил Оборони.

📋 Підсумовуючи: ми на порозі чергової халепи через повторення помилок. Дуже сподіваємося, що оточень вдасться уникнути. Курська операція — це дійсно великий стратегічний успіх Сил Оборони, але будь-яку перемогу треба утримувати, а не сподіватися, що ворог буде і надалі дебілом.

Мапа🛑Блог🛑Написати нам🛑 ЗСУHelp🛑Магазин🛑Донат

🇮🇱🇱🇧The IDF suffered huge losses after a Hezbollah ambush in Maroun Al-Ra'as, reports mention up to 35 casualties – footage shows medevac helicopters evacuating dead and wounded from the Lebanese border non stop.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 First closeup Footage of a Ballistic impact.

Угледар

Судя по перехватам противник получил приказ отходить. Не все смогут.

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 867:
Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army took full control over the microdistrict of Krasnogorivka, the Hospital & Agriculture School & began advancing along Nakhimova, Ostrovskoho & Belinskoho.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.00708139403869%2C37.508013252237625&z=14 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 867:
Situation on Toresk front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over the cemeteries, the School 18 & big parts of Petrivska Hora disctrict inside Niu-York. 35% of the town is now under Russian control.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.315560758061665%2C37.844720038662935&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 855:
Situation on Toresk front: Russian Army began to advance towards the city of Niu-York. After several days of fighting the troops managed to take the first trenches and houses in the town. A new axis has been opened towards Toresk agglomeration.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.29887681535932%2C37.84618208767991&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 854:
Situation north of Donetsk: During the last days Ukrainian Army managed to recapture numerous positions east of Terny.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.071521358469624%2C37.98869652809323&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 854:
Situation on eastern front: During the last three days Russian Army managed to capture most of the locality of Rozdolivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.753939610724174%2C38.10338893721625&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 852:
Situation on Gorlovka front: Russian Army took control over some parts of Myru & Kyyivska streets inside Pivnichne. In addition, Russian forces advanced beyond the pumping station taking control over the trenches adjacent to the water channel thus retaking control over the section of Ozarianivka-Mayorsk railway out of their control.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.39257249723439%2C37.96609498743208&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 852:
Situation north of Kharkov: From Chuhuiv axis during the last three days Ukrainian Army recaptured a significant area of the northeastern part of Vovchansk town.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.28528877654891%2C36.93388227485968&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 851:
Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last four days Russian Army made significant advances north of Volodymyrivka increasing the buffer zone around Kaolinic quarry.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.77013735067441%2C37.35502776937983&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 844:
Situation north & west of Avdivka: For ten days the Russian army made advances along the entire line of this front:
Russian forces continued to advance north of Umanske and west of Semenivka taking control of the locality of Novopokrovske (captured on June 13) and reaching the outskirts of Novoselivka Persha from this axis. In addition troops entered Sokil taking half of the town. On the other hand Russian forces took most of the locality of Novooleksandrivka and resumed the advance towards Kalynove.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.22647882193311%2C37.60391953500764&z=12 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 844:
Situation west of Donetsk ciy: Russian Army took the final part of Heorhiivka on June 13 while other troops continued to take new positions south of this locality. Shortly afterwards Russian forces gained access to the first houses of Maksymilyanivka starting the battle for the last locality before the stronghold of Ukrainian Army in Kurakhove.
Meanwhile in Krasnogorivka Russian troops seized the farm to the southwest and began to advance on the outskirts of the town. On the other hand, fighting continues in the town center along the private district and the microdistrict without significant changes.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.98849484602978%2C37.493783163604384&z=13 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 844:
Situation on Velikonovoselkovskaya front: During the last twelve days Russian Army seized 90% of Staromaiors'ke (the northern warehouses remain under control of Ukrainian Army) and entered the central part of Urozhaine.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.74854551905887%2C36.80998978507871&z=14 ]

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 832:
Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last 36 hours Russian Army launched a series of attacks along the front between Ugledar & Donetsk city & managed to advance west of Solodke, southeast of Kostyantynivka, northeast of Paraskoviivka & south of Pobjeda.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.84287745222956%2C37.39437898861582&z=12 ]

In the Kharkiv direction some russian gains have either been adjusted or marginally forced back. Russia has shifted to a defensive posture in the region as ukraine pours in reinforcements and new western weapons to counter the incursion.

Some conclusions I have come to.

first off, from Ukraine's point of view, they need a victory. Ukraine has failed in major urban defensive effort. Forcing the Russians out of Vovchansk would be the moral and public victory they need to reassure allys, and raise moral for the their armies and the ukrainian people. This will come at the cost of ground in the donbass but since most of the major frontline towns there have fallen ukraine can cover up and downplay the loss of minor villages and farmland( that is virtually unusable minefields). This is with the exception of Chasiv Yar which will be the second most importand point for Ukraine to hold this summer from a PR standpoint.

From the Russian point of view, If the status quo remains, a situation where russian resolve, manpower, and resources stay steady and even continue to increase, A Ukrainian focus on Vovchansk is playing directly into Russian hands. The Russians have a solid frontline and now a decent buffer protecting the approaches to Belgorod. Its highly unlikely that advancing past Vovchansk is an immediate goal. The element of surprise is lost and with ukrainian focus in the north, Russia can continue to wipe out ukraine defenses in the donetsk region. Territory that Russia sees as far more important to the war effort.

As always, information coming out of russia is highly propagated similar to that of Ukraine. So it is tough to determine the real situation there. I imagine the reality to be somewhere in between what the russians paint as a great and flourishing society and the american and ukrainian claim that Russia is in freefall. In my view Russia appears to be stable for the time being. But I am skeptical that Russia could handle a major setback on the scale of the 2022 defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson Regions. These defeats were mitigated by the stonewalling of the 2023 ukrainian offensive but in my view russia is still several thousand square kilimoters of territory shy of putting those defeats behind them. Russia will be seeking to capture 100% of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to back their domestic claims of running a successful war effort.

Hopefully an update coming this week

🇺🇲🇺🇦 The US administration does not allow Kiev to strike with American weapons on targets outside the Ukrainian conflict zone, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.