Markets 360° with Vijay Bhambwani

The Vyacheslav Question

(Vyacheslav question is one that is asked to debunk a propagated hypothesis in real politik. Named after Vyacheslav Molotov (Josef Stalin's foreign minister and one of the toughest negotiators of all time).

Sometime in latter half of 1939 Molotov is in Germany conferring with Joachim Von Ribbentrop (Hitler's foreign minister) who is pressing Molotov to sign the Russia - Germany political pact. WWII has already begun.

Ribbentrop - "we are winning the war, its as good as over! England and France are finished! You must sign this accord to partner us in carving Europe between our nations!" Molotov is invariably silent. It spooks Ribbentrop.

The Royal Air Force decides to conduct a bombing raid on the venue. Air raid sirens wail and both are rushed into underground air raid shelters.

Von Ribbentrop continues - "Comrade sign this pact before Germany wins this war in weeks. Hitler may not negotiate later!"

Molotov finally speaks (asking the Vyacheslav question) - if you have almost won the war, why are we scurrying into your air raid shelter and whose bombs are these that are falling on your head?

Looking at the Indian 30-year bond yield rising (blue line) whenever some perma bull tells me rate cycle has peaked and huge cuts are coming, I ask the Vyacheslav question on the 30-Y paper.

No answer. I wonder why!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

The Vyacheslav Question

Read below ⬇️

We're 20,000 Strong & Growing!

Dear Online Family,
Today we crossed a small milestone of 20,000 subscribers for our YouTube channel http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

It was all made possible by your support and kind words of encouragement. We do not have any advertising budget and depend on your referrals alone. Thank you so very much!

Together we will stay ahead of the crowds 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Congratulations Hemant!

Friends,
This is a trading system developed by a bright and upcoming shining young trader Hemant. He shared it in a YT comment.

He got inspired by the tick-by-tick data I was uploading daily on my Telegram channel here https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani - and decided to use it for trade decision support systems.

Do share your systems if you believe in helping others like Hemant just did!

I'm glad my work is helping add value to your trading journey! Lets stay ahead of the crowds with a 360° worldview of the markets 👍🏻

Vijay

What Keeps Bulls Awake at Night!

Friends,
In this weekly video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbSl9gEJrH8 I analyse what keeps bulls awake at night!

Like the video? Please share, subscribe, comment and like!

Connect with me here -

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://www.x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

Happy Trading 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani

I am thankful for every extra minute that I worked beyond fatigue levels through 2023 & 2024 when it became apparent that procyclical hysteresis was imminent in 2025.

The only way we could get IßeX and ßarracuda trading models combat ready by 2025 was by burning the candle on both ends.

Next frontier - to get prepped for 2026 & 2027 in the high δ (Delta) space in non-linear derivatives segment ready before Diwali of 2025.

Godspeed!

Auto lenders witness "deterioration in asset quality." https://x.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1856241270555083240

I've been warning you of challenging times for interest rate sensitives (EMI dependent companies, NBFCs, banks, capital intensive sectors) and heavily debt laden companies. Procyclicality here as I expected!

Stay ahead of the crowds - thats one way of surviving in a cut throat market dominated by big ticket traders.

All the best 👍🏻

Cyber Complaint

@X @XCorpIndia @twitter I am the founder of a 32 year old incorporated company, a best selling author and media guest columnist. I do NOT post spam, posts on banned subjects or politics. Am on this platform since 2009!

Recently three suspensions of my premium account within a week, triggered by deliberate false red flagging by some users as spam. These are malicious moves to tarnish my reputation built over 3 decades.

I have filed an investigation complaint with Mumbai police vide complaint no 5499/2025 dated 18/01/2025 to track these miscreants. Please co-operate in the matter.

Best regards/Vijay

FYI - You get my account flagged as spam, I'll get it restored. Again and again and again.

I'm sure you're reading this. Game on 👍

Thank you dear online family! You're simply marvellous! The wind in my sails.

Attn - Weekly Commodity Options, Futures & Swing Traders

Weekly commodity futures pivots between 20/01/2025 - 24/01/2025

Connect with me here -

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://www.x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani

Love's Labour Under Attack

Dear Online Family,
Thank you for your wonderful support and encouragement over the years where my work is concerned. Whether its my TV shows, newspaper columns or institutional training programs, you have been the wind in my sails. Thank you!

I have stuck to my line of thought and stayed the course - keeping analysis and findings data and research evidence based. There should be no room for emotional guesswork and avoidable errors. Admittedly the endeavour is neither smooth nor easy.

There are bound to be points of contrarian opinions and disagreement in views. That it would lead to aggressive trolling was also a given.

The recent red-flagging of my social media posts on Twitter and Facebook with an intent to block my accounts and phishing attack on Youtube channel went beyond the ordinary. Like I have been warning you, it may not stop there too.

Apparently sharing cutting edge knowledge for free has its disadvantages as we are finding out. My Twitter account remains blocked for the 3rd time in a week. More outpouring of such "love" may follow.

The duality of standards is amazing! Those advocating empowerment of the masses are cutting communication lines of the very people to progress further. Completely free, lawfully and openly.

My trading experience in the markets since 1986 has been full of learnings. This is another such lesson!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday & Calendar Spread Commodities Options and Futures Traders

Daily commodity futures pivots for 20/01/2025.

Reminder - most of the price ßeta action takes place in commodities after US markets open for trade.

All the best 👍🏻

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://www.x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

Vijay L Bhambwani

Twitter suspended my account again after I uploaded the tick by tick video as I warned you today morning.

My ability to connect with with my online family is being curbed

Try It In the Real World

Friends,
Hope you watched the tick-by-tick trading video I uploaded here today - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBhE5YWu5Sk

Now try it with todays data files available here -
https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani/5614

Real world ideas for real world traders 👍

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Nifty & Bank Nifty Jan Futures Tick-by-tick Data For 17/1/25

Friends,
These raw data files attached below (open in MS Excel) should help my statistically minded online family members to seek price points where selling can occur in the near future.

Do study the statistical variance metric in the data on a time/price continuum.

Lets stay ahead of the markets with a 360° worldview of the financial markets.

Connect with me here -

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Weekly Indices Options & Futures Swing Traders

Weekly indices January futures and spot pivots between 20/01/2025 - 24/01/2025.

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://www.x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday Indices Options & Futures Traders

Daily indices January futures and spot pivots for 20/01/2025.

All the best 👍🏻

My Telegram channel - https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani

My Twitter a/c - http://www.x.com/vijaybhambwani

My YouTube channel - http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

Vijay L Bhambwani

How to Trade Like a Hedge Fund!

Friends,
In this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBhE5YWu5Sk I share tick-by-tick trading techniques that are used by HFT (high frequency traders) and hedge fund managers!

My videos contain strategies not shared anywhere else. And they are free! Want even more detailed strategies? Let us know!

Like the video? Please share, subscribe, comment and like!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

"Remember boys - no matter how random things appear, there is ALWAYS a plan!" - Colonel Hannibal Smith in The A-Team

Staying ahead of the crowds is my plan, priority and standard operating procedure.

Yes 2025 is the year of the intelligent statistical systems traders.

The Phalanx phenomenon will take us "home." Just 45 days to go 👍🏻

Attn - Weekly Commodity Options, Futures & Swing Traders

Weekly commodity futures pivots between 18/11/2024 - 22/11/2024

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday & Calendar Spread Commodities Options and Futures Traders

Daily commodity futures pivots for 18/11/2024.

Reminder - most of the price ßeta action takes place in commodities after US markets open for trade

PS - MCX was open between 1700 - 2355 hours on Friday so only part of the moves were logged. The actual price ranges maybe wider on 18/11/2024

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Weekly Indices Options & Futures Swing Traders

Weekly indices November futures and spot pivots between 18/11/2024 - 22/11/2024.

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

After Procyclicality What Next?

Friends,
I started warning you about procyclical hysteresis in 2025 since end of 2023 itself!

The copy+paste guys are getting on the bandwagon now. As usual they're late!

The next logical stage is "Phalanx" phenomenon. I will be talking about in my weekly video today at http://www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani

Have you subscribed to our channel yet? Do pass the word around 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday Indices Options & Futures Traders

Daily indices November futures and spot pivots for 18/11/2024.

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

What's Next After Procyclicality?

Friends,
Thanks for the overwhelming feedback about my procyclical hysteresis hypothesis. Glad my warnings helped!

While the Johnnies-come-lately are catching up now, we're prepping for the Phalanx phenomenon as the next logical step.

Staying ahead of the crowds that's what real world traders do 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Trump Victory and Your Trading Strategy

Friends,
In this video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKEf22delk I discuss in great detail how your trading strategy changes in Trump's tenure.

Like the video? Please share, subscribe, comment and like.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Early Bird Catches the Worm

Friends,
I don't watch TV. I'm told they're talking of procyclicality nowadays.

When I received this feedback from one of my online family members, I wasn't surprised.

Real world traders are the quickest to catch on the subtle nuances and shifts in the market sentiments. I warned about procyclical hysteresis in financial asset prices almost a year ago.

And we're on the next logical step already. No copy + pasting, all original data based analysis based on our in-house trading models.

Non participants do tend to catch on later. And that's okay.

We need to stay ahead of the crowds, not the crowds to stay ahead of us!

Tally ho!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Well, Well, Well

Friends,
Cost of money is the most intricate factor to know in the chain of financial markets.

Some get it, some don't.

Cheque writers are coming back gradually.

Let's stay ahead of the crowds with a 360° worldview of the markets 👍

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/powell-says-the-fed-doesnt-need-to-be-in-a-hurry-to-reduce-interest-rates.html

Fraud Alert!

Friends,
A fake Facebook profile https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61569071810938 has been created under my name using one of my pics. Pls note I or any companies I have floated, am a Director of, DONT offer ANY paid services.

Please don't transact with this person and report the fake ID. We are taking legal steps ourselves.

Stay safe.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Wednesday's Post Market Summation

Happy trading!

LWTD tutorial is here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=yag076z1ADk

Marshmallow trading theory explained - www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNKvtsCwFY

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday Indices Options & Futures Traders

Daily indices November futures and spot pivots for 14/11/2024.

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

I wont say much about this report except - lets just laugh out loud!!!

The gobbledygook that was being thrown at real world traders by non-trading "experts" about $ 150+ per barrel of oil is now flushing down the toilet. Only problem is unsuspecting retail bulls have lost millions in mark-to-market losses on long positions.

Stay real, stay ahead of the crowds and stay away from the story tellers and kite flyers with no skin in the game!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-again-cuts-2024-2025-oil-demand-growth-forecasts-2024-11-12/

If "procyclicality" is not the top Google searched word already, it will be soon.

A lot of folks are gonna learn about it the hard way though.

Gotterdammerung - Time to Go Home!

Warriors,
I promised you I would fulfill Richard Wagner's 17 August 1876 prophecy Gotterdammerung - The Twilight of the Gods (in our case "experts" in the markets). I would prove them wrong and myself right!

That a dedicated statistically minded trader can punch far above his weight against the heavy-weights in a fair fight in the financial markets. The sit-rep as of now of my hypotheses -

*) Spiking cost of funds ✔️

*) Spiking inflation ✔️

*) Failed "supercycle" in commodities ✔️

*) Zooming bullion price on panic ✔️

*) Fiat currency erosion✔️

*) Procyclical hysteresis in financial asset prices ✔️

*) Panic in interest rate sensitive sectors ✔️

*) Flight to safety towards sovereign guaranteed bonds ✔️

*) Ghost inventories, shadow tanker ships would transport fuel ✔️

*) Return of the big ticket cheque writers ✔️

*) Phalanx formations in financial markets ✔️

*) Emergence of a new statistically savvy market trader who would outperform the crowds in the new digital markets ✔️

The correlation coefficient readings are now getting interesting.

Its been a pleasure flying with you. Its time to recapture lost kingdoms, past glories and home coming - market Gods willing.

Tally ho!

VJ
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/111124-factbox-global-shadow-tanker-fleet-moves-growing-volumes-of-sanctioned-oil

A Realty Check for Perma Bulls

Friends,
The re-election of Donald Trump has triggered a bout of euphoria among the fireside experts (we real world traders love them right?) like the event is a panacea for all global ills.

Here is the more balanced view - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rupee-may-depreciate-8-10-during-2nd-trump-presidency-says-sbi-report/articleshow/115186185.cms

Await my video on Trumps presidency fallout very soon 👍🏻

Lets stay ahead of the crowds with a 360° worldview of the markets.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

When the Narratives Change

Friends,
As a doer of deeds (someone who puts his capital in the line of fire inorder to earn a profit), it amazes me how narratives change in the market.

Read this Bloomberg piece for example - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/china-s-copper-market-needs-more-stimulus-says-top-importer

Remember how the market non-participating experts were chanting high decibel chants of a supercycle in industrial metals, till just a few weeks ago? The kite flying targets for copper were flying fast and furious in the public domain.

I kept posting on social media, videos and my media columns that a supercycle in base metals was all fart and no shit (my drill sergeant would've been proud of me for saying that!). All talk, no substance!

Over 40% of all global copper comes from Peru & Chile in LatAm. Almost all LatAm nations are in doldrums.

They will export EVERYTHING that they can, just to meet their sovereign debt commitments or risk sovereign downgrades!

You and me are doers of deeds. We don't fight the chants of the supercycle echo chambers. We should welcome them. Every trade needs counter parties, to be able short sell we need buyers. We speak out truthfully that we expect a fall. Then we do what we needs to be done.

Lets keep it simple. We are in the business of staying profitable, not staying relevant. Lets stick to the basics, that's our gig!

Lets stay ahead of the crowd. Always.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Tuesday's Post Market Summation

Happy trading!

LWTD tutorial is here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=yag076z1ADk

Marshmallow trading theory explained - www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNKvtsCwFY

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday Indices Options & Futures Traders

Daily indices November futures and spot pivots for 13/11/2024.

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

When Buy-the-Dips is a BAD Idea!

Hi,
You NEVER average down in procyclical markets. No matter how loud the chants of echo chambers in the markets. I explained pro-cyclicality in these 2 videos.

Its explained here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crWstn3MGlQ and here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQgibYx2RiQ

Get this content elsewhere? Like the videos? Please share, subscribe, like and comment!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

https://t.me/market360_with_vijaybhambwani/4372

SIPs Slowing Down

Friends,
Money inflows into the markets are seemingly trickling down.

Time to be careful out there.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mutual-funds/sip-account-addition-slows-even-as-equity-fund-flows-hit-record-high-in-october-12863620.html

Warriors,
Yes! The Phalanx formation is here on the statistical matrix. Just as I anticipated in this 11 Sept 2024 post. Link in the caption.

May the best traders win. Amen 🙏🏻👍🏻

Vj

More on Procyclical Hysteresis Weight of Evidence

Friends,
Read this Business Standard report https://www.business-standard.com/amp/finance/news/rbi-ready-to-weaken-rupee-in-line-with-yuan-after-donald-trump-win-124111100091_1.html

Exactly what I wrote in my paywalled Livemint column I shared with you today morning.

Brace up for the coming inflation shit storm.

Procyclical hysteresis ready traders are gonna win in 2025. You're welcome.

It'll be a pleasure flying with you during this mission.

Tally ho!

VIjay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Procyclicality is a Step Closer

Friends,
Since end of 2023 I have been warning you that 2024 would be a year of fake and/or engineered rallies due to >50 nations holding general elections. A feel-good-factor would permeate the sentiments.

Procyclicality (eh! What's that?? most people ask me) would follow from 2025 onwards. The four regions I warned you about since 2021 - LatAm, MENA, A-Pac and SE Asia as Achilles heels.

It invariably starts with parsing and sifting as this moneycontrol article reports - https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/india-loses-top-spot-to-china-in-key-msci-emerging-markets-index-as-foreign-outflows-earnings-concerns-weigh-12863614.html

Last and final call for understanding the concept of cost of money, its fallout on various asset classes that Dick Stoken wrote in his books. Be there or be square. Better luck next time.

I repeat - I don't provide any services, "mentoring" included. I'm a doer of deeds and content with it.

I enjoyed shorting during the commodity supercycle hypothesis of the echo chambers of the markets. Hopefully mother market will be on my side on my procyclical hysteresis hypothesis as well. If not, someone else will have a laugh at me.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Monday's Post Market Summation

Happy trading!

LWTD tutorial is here - www.youtube.com/watch?v=yag076z1ADk

Marshmallow trading theory explained - www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFNKvtsCwFY

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Attn - Intraday Indices Options & Futures Traders

Daily indices November futures and spot pivots for 12/11/2024.

All the best 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Is Trump Good for Indian Stock Markets?

Friends,
In this @livemint article (for subscribers only) I weigh the pros and cons for a retail investor-trader.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/donald-trump-us-elections-stock-markets-investors-fiis-crude-oil-prices-global-trade-china-tariffs-israel-hamas-iran-11731310041564.html

Stay Ahead, Stay Profitable

Friends,
We prioritize staying ahead of the crowds. In April '24 we forecast a rally and it occurred. In October '24 I anticipated a fall and its underway.

I consider the fall an opportunity. Watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJR5v_mzPUI and find out how.

Like the video? Please share, subscribe, like and comment!

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

A Big Thank You!

Friends,
Thanks for your unstinted support and viewership for our Youtube channel www.youtube.com/vijaybhambwani which reached a small milestone of 7,50,000 views today!

Something to note -

1) Reached 2,50,000 views in Dec 2023 - in 42 months
2) Reached 5,00,000 views in Jul 2024 - 7 months later
3) Reached 7,50,000 views in Nov 2024 - 4 months later

No advertising, no sale/distribution of any paid goods or services of any type. No mumbo jumbo - just plain statistical analysis - in easy peasy style!

Like our work? Would appreciate it if you share it with your friends and social media groups 👍🏻

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani

Hope Springs Eternal in the Human Heart

Warriors,
This weekends been a crazy one! Friday, Saturday & Sunday are 20 hour/day schedules. This will be the work schedule of choice till Dec end - pushing to max out.

But got lots of work done! Correlation coefficient metrics are more or less in place, finally. Phewww!

What's out of our control is market price. I sacrificed trades because the trading models were not fully prepped in Oct.

I was expecting procyclicality in 2025. It knocked early.

If the market Gods are kind to us, the annual Santa Claus rally will be a robust one. Hope the echo chambers chant loud and long enough to push prices higher. That's our cue.

Lets stick to the basics Joe Bob that's our gig!

51 days to 2025 - to procyclicality and going home! May the best traders win! All the best!

VJ

Buying Appears Laboured

Friends,
In my weekly @livemint column https://www.livemint.com/mint-top-newsletter/ticker11112024.html I write why buying appears laboured.

This is India's first and only media column to offer statistical inputs to its readers.

Vijay L Bhambwani
#ASNF
@vijaybhambwani