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Currency Market Analysis: Dollar Down, Gold Up

Asian Session Outlook

As Asian markets commenced trading, the DXY hovered around 102.74, poised to decline further, while spot gold prices trended upwards toward $2,161 per ounce.


Key Events in the U.S. Today

Unemployment Rate (1:30 pm GMT)
Non-Farm Employment Change (1:30 pm GMT)



Currency Market Analysis: Dollar Down, Gold Up


Dollar Index (DXY): The stability in unemployment claims, combined with Powell’s testimony, may influence DXY’s movement; consequently, a medium bearish bias is expected.

Gold (XAU): Elevated unemployment claims could support a bullish sentiment for spot gold prices in the short term, with a medium bullish outlook.

Euro (EUR): The ECB’s neutral hawkish stance, coupled with economic growth expectations, could keep the Euro elevated, signaling a medium bullish bias.

British Pound (GBP): The Pound could remain elevated amidst positive unemployment claims data and the Bank of England’s unchanged interest rate, with a medium bullish bias.


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Market Watch: US Dollar Weakens, Gold Continues Rally


The US dollar weakens as Powell hints at potential rate cuts, while gold hits record highs. All eyes are on the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report.


Amid anticipation surrounding the direction of US interest rates and economic indicators, the US dollar experienced a downward drift, while gold continued its rally to reach a fresh record high. As investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and looked ahead to the forthcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) report, market dynamics remained in focus.



Chair Powell’s testimony before the House provided little clarity beyond reiterating the Fed’s stance on potential rate cuts later in the year, contingent upon economic data trends. His comments, indicating a likelihood of rate adjustments “if the economy evolves broadly as expected” and expectations of continued decline in inflation, left markets seeking more substantial cues. Investors anticipated Powell’s second round of testimony later in the day but did not expect it to alter the current market sentiment regarding US monetary policy significantly.


Retail trader data from IG indicated a mixed sentiment among market participants, with a slight majority being net-short on gold. This could potentially signal divergent views on the precious metal’s future trajectory.



In summary, market focus remained on the trajectory of US monetary policy, with Powell’s testimony providing limited insights. Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s NFP report, which analysts expect will significantly influence the US dollar and gold markets.





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Asian Markets Rebound: What You Need to Know


Asian markets rebound despite Wall Street tech decline, highlighting global rates, commodities, and upcoming events.

Global Markets

Asian Stock Markets: The Nikkei rose by 0.06%, the Shanghai Composite declined by 0.07%, Hang Seng surged by 1.76%, and ASX saw a slight uptick of 0.12%.
Commodities: Gold prices dipped to $2137.5 (-0.34%), Silver stood at $23.97 (-0.09%), Brent Oil was at $82.25 (0.26%), and WTI Oil stood at $78.57 (0.26%).
Rates: The U.S. 10-year yield is 4.152, the U.K. 10-year yield is 4.041, and the Germany 10-year yield is 2.318.



Asia Session Outlook

The Australian economy’s growth in the third quarter of 2023, at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, fell short of market forecasts of 0.5%. This and a sluggish fourth-quarter estimate suggest a steady but slow growth trajectory. Should GDP figures exceed expectations, the Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience a positive response.


Market Bias for the Next 24 Hours

Anticipations suggest that Gold will likely show weak bearish tendencies, driven by Powell’s testimony and the release of employment data. The Australian Dollar holds a medium bearish bias, while the New Zealand Dollar’s outlook remains similarly negative. The Japanese Yen and Euro show weak bullish tendencies, while the Swiss Franc displays weak bias. The Pound and Canadian Dollar exhibit a weak bearish bias, while concerns about China’s economic growth will likely maintain a weakly bearish stance on Oil.


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Tokyo core CPI surge to 2.5%, pressures BOJ; USD/JPY expected to decline. ISM Services PMI impacts global markets.



According to recent data, the Tokyo core Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) in February, marking the highest reading in four months. This acceleration from 1.8% YoY in the previous month signals a departure from the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target, heightening pressure on the central bank to reconsider its ultra-loose monetary policy and possibly contemplate an interest rate hike. Consequently, demand for the Japanese yen is forecasted to increase, potentially driving USD/JPY lower from its current trading level of around 150.50.

The increase in inflation comes after seven months of slower growth, indicating a potential shift in Japan’s economic landscape. The latest inflation data poses a significant challenge for the BOJ, which has been striving to achieve sustainable inflation growth while maintaining financial stability.



Central banks in respective regions have maintained their policy rates, awaiting further economic data before adjusting. Markets anticipate the next significant meeting for monetary policy decisions on March 19, 2024.

Moreover, investors remain cautious amidst uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions, with a keen eye on forthcoming data releases and central bank announcements for insights into future market trends.


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Market watch: Nikkei 225 hits record high; FTSE 100 struggles; S&P 500 breaks new ground. Global markets face mixed signals.


The global stock market landscape presents a mixed picture as the Nikkei 225 reached yet another milestone, while the FTSE 100 struggles to gain traction and the S&P 500 notches up fresh record highs.

The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark index, soared past the psychologically significant 40,000 mark again, driven by the stellar performance of tech and AI stocks like Tokyo Electron. A shift towards tech nearshoring and foreign funds redirecting investments from Chinese to Japanese markets fuels this surge. However, analysts caution that risks such as China’s economic fluctuations, potential strengthening of the yen, and changes in the Bank of Japan’s policy stance could temper the index’s upward trajectory. Additionally, concerns about the index’s overbought levels loom, suggesting a potential minor retracement to previous highs.


The S&P 500 continues its relentless ascent in the United States, nearing the 5,150 mark and setting another record high. This surge precedes pivotal events such as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony and crucial US labor data, driving investor optimism. Analysts point to the 5,200 zone as the next primary target for the index, with support levels seen around the 23 February high at 5,111 and the February-to-March uptrend line at 5,088.

As markets navigate a maze of economic data and geopolitical developments, investors remain cautiously optimistic but vigilant against potential headwinds that could sway the current bullish sentiment.



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Global Focus: Dollar Index, Gold Prices, and Oil Movement Reviewed


Global focus on currency and commodities: The dollar index steadies, gold prices find support, and oil retreats. The market awaits movements.


Implications for Europe & US Sessions

Switzerland has witnessed a notable easing in inflation over the past year, with both headline and core CPI printing below 1.3% YoY in January. If this trend of dissipating inflationary pressures persists, the Swiss franc might face significant selling pressures, bolstering USD/CHF.

Gold (XAU) Forecast

Gold experienced a significant one-day surge, marking its largest gain since mid-December 2023, surpassing the critical threshold of $2,050/oz to reach $2,088/oz before closing at $2,085/oz. Expectations lean towards continued elevation in gold prices.

Central Bank Insights

The Federal Reserve kept the Federal Funds Rate target range unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, emphasizing the pursuit of maximum employment and inflation around 2.0% over the long term.



With geopolitical tensions and global demand expectations shaping market sentiments, investors are eyeing potential movements in major currencies, gold, and oil. The stability of the Dollar Index, the resilience of gold, and the slight retreat in oil prices are significant factors for traders to consider in today’s sessions.



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Euro Weighed Down as EU Inflation Falls Short of Predictions


Euro (EUR) struggles as EU core inflation remains stagnant. EUR/USD tests 1.0800 level amid market uncertainty.



In the latest economic update from Eurostat, the Euro Area’s core inflation continues its downward trend for the seventh consecutive month, indicating persistent economic challenges within the European Union. However, the decline did not meet analysts’ expectations of a more significant drop, offering a mixed outlook for the region’s economic health.



The European Central Bank (ECB) faces mounting pressure as it contemplates becoming the first major central bank to implement rate cuts in response to economic challenges. This move could weaken the Euro further in global currency markets, adding to the existing uncertainties surrounding the EUR/USD exchange rate.



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Dollar Reaction to Inflation Figures and Unemployment Claims


Dollar reaction to mixed U.S. inflation data and higher unemployment claims; anticipation surrounds RBNZ Governor’s speech.

The latest data on U.S. inflation and unemployment claims has influenced the dollar index (DXY) movement, with mixed results seen during the Asia session. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January showed a notable increase, with headline and core figures rising. The headline PCE rose by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), the highest growth in four months, while the core PCE jumped by 0.4% MoM, marking the biggest gain since February 2023. On an annualized rate, headline and core PCE remained unchanged at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

However, the dollar initially faced pressure as unemployment claims for the previous week came in higher than forecasted, signaling a softer labor market. The number of claims reached 215,000, surpassing the forecast of 209,000 and last week’s reading of 202,000.

In response to the data release, the dollar index (DXY) dropped as low as 103.65 before rebounding strongly to hit 104.18, reflecting the market’s reaction to the mixed economic indicators.



As trading continues, market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, with the dollar’s movement influenced by economic data releases and central bank communications.


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EUR/USD on Edge Ahead of Inflation Data Announcement



EUR/USD poised for volatility amid crucial inflation data, German unemployment uptick, and mixed retail sentiment.


Germany, often dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe,’ has seen a gradual uptick in its unemployment rate, signaling challenges for the continent’s largest economy. According to the Federal Labour Office, the number of individuals seeking employment has risen by 11,000, surpassing the estimated 7,000 increase. This shift has prompted a revision of the annual growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.2%, indicating a slow economic momentum.

The Federal Labour Office highlighted the impact of the “weak economic environment” on the labor market, with a notable decrease of 72,000 job openings compared to the previous year, totaling 706,000 openings currently registered.


As reflected by IG client positioning, retail sentiment paints a picture of indecision, with short and long positions nearly balanced. Amidst attempts to interpret recent market movements and with a keen eye on the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, retail traders need a clear consensus.


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DAX 40 New Surge, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Stable


Global equities consolidate as DAX 40 hits a new surge, while FTSE 100 and S&P 500 are stable, depicting diverse market
trends.

In the realm of global equities, the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 are currently navigating a period of consolidation, while the DAX 40 index of Germany is soaring to unprecedented heights, fueled by a backdrop of robust earnings and improving economic sentiment.

The FTSE 100, Britain’s benchmark index, finds itself in relative stability as it hovers around the 7,717 mark, albeit shy of last week’s peak. Investors are anticipating the upcoming speech by MPC member Mann, seeking potential cues for market direction. The index’s resilience is evident, with support at 7,669, though breaching the 7,717 level is imperative to reignite bullish sentiment, targeting the recent high of 7,750.

Meanwhile, The S&P 500 index consolidates, hovering around the psychologically significant 5,000 mark. The index has retreated slightly from its peak of 5,111, awaiting key economic data releases, including the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP growth rate and PCE inflation data. Market participants are also keenly monitoring speeches by FOMC members Bostic and Williams for insights into future monetary policy decisions.



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U.S. Durable Goods Plummet, Dollar Index Strong



U.S. durable goods orders plummet, dollar strengthens; RBNZ expected to hold rates; GDP release anticipated.

In a surprising turn of events, orders for durable goods in the United States took a steep dive, plunging 6.1% month-over-month in January. This decline, which exceeded the anticipated 4.5% drop, marks the sharpest monthly decrease since April 2020. The primary driver behind this downturn was the transportation equipment sector, which experienced a notable 16.2% decline compared to the previous month.


Next 24 Hours Bias

The outlook for various currencies and commodities in the upcoming 24 hours presents a mix of bullish, bearish, and neutral sentiments. Factors such as GDP releases, central bank decisions, and oil inventory data will likely shape market dynamics, influencing trading strategies across global financial markets.



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Dow and Nasdaq Near Peaks, Hang Seng Rally Strong


Global markets update: Dow and Nasdaq are near highs, and the Hang Seng rally faces resistance. Key levels analyzed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 continue to hover near their all-time highs in global markets. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index maintains momentum, according to a recent analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a surge to a record high last Friday, although it struggled to maintain this peak.

Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 reached a record high on Friday before retracing during Monday’s session.

The Hang Seng Index has surged above its 100-day SMA for the first time since mid-November, indicating a solid upward trend.



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Crypto Stock Surge as Market Hits New Highs


Crypto stock: Bitcoin and Ethereum surge to new highs as buyers dominate the market, fueled by ETF interest and upcoming events.

In the latest cryptocurrency market surge, Bitcoin (BTC) has soared to $57,000, reaching heights not seen since November 2021, while Ethereum (ETH) touched $3,275. This significant price rise has been attributed to a dominant presence of buyers in the market, driving renewed interest in digital assets.

Several factors fuel the rally in Bitcoin, including a surge in ETF buying and anticipation for the mid-April halving event. Following the SEC’s approval of eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10th, a broader range of investors have gained access to the cryptocurrency market. Notably, the BlackRock-managed Bitcoin ETF alone has witnessed over $6.6 billion in inflows since mid-January, contributing to the upward momentum of Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin opened at $46,000 on January 10th, experiencing a significant surge to approximately $56,500.Traders closely monitor the upcoming halving event, anticipating its impact on cryptocurrency’s supply and demand dynamics with block rewards halving.


As the cryptocurrency market continues to attract significant attention from investors, traders remain vigilant of potential market volatility and swift price fluctuations inherent in this asset class.



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A Closer Look at Trends in Global Stock Markets


Global stock markets like CAC 40, DAX 40, and Dow reach highs but face short-term consolidation amid economic factors.


The global stock markets are witnessing an intriguing blend of record highs and cautious consolidation, reflecting the complex interplay of economic factors and investor sentiment. Let’s delve into the recent movements of key indices such as the Nikkei 225, FTSE 100, and DAX 40 to glean insights into their trajectories and potential future directions.


The Nikkei 225 experienced a swift ascent last week, surging to a new record high, surpassing levels not seen in 34 years.

The FTSE 100 index has demonstrated resilience in the face of recent volatility, staging a recovery from last week’s lows.

The DAX 40 index surged to a new record high close to the 17,500 mark last Thursday before pausing for breath. Investors eagerly await German inflation data, which could influence the index’s next move.



In conclusion, while indices such as the CAC 40, DAX 40, and Dow Jones Industrial Average continue to scale record highs, short-term consolidation appears probable as markets navigate through uncertainties and digest recent gains. Investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities in the dynamic landscape of global equities.



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Surging Markets: A Week of Record Highs and Key Risk Events Ahead



Investors celebrated last week as US stock markets surged to new record highs, propelled by the strength of tech and AI-dominated stocks. As the fresh trading week unfolds, the market remains buoyant. Still, attention shifts to key data releases and central bank updates that could pose challenges or unveil fresh trading opportunities.


Here’s a comprehensive day-by-day breakdown of the significant risk events scheduled for this week:

Monday

The week begins on a subdued note, with minimal market-moving events. Sterling traders will closely monitor speeches by MPC members Breeden and Pill during the London and New York sessions, alongside releasing the latest US New Home Sales data.

Tuesday

Another relatively calm day precedes the flurry of updates later in the week. Tier 1 data releases are limited to the North American time zone, featuring the US Durable Goods data release and CB Consumer Confidence numbers.

Wednesday

Market activity starts to intensify, mainly focusing on the antipodean regions. Australia’s market awaits key CPI data, followed by the RBNZ’s cash rate call across the Tasman. While the European session remains subdued, US traders will scrutinize Prelim GDP numbers and await insights from FOMC members Bostic and Williams.

Thursday

Anticipated as the busiest day of the week regarding risk events, G20 Meetings commence, promising updates throughout the day.

Friday

Market momentum carries into the week’s final trading day—attention in APAC shifts to the Chinese market with the release of Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI number




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Market Watch:



AUD/USD: Confluence Level is in Play

The price reacted at the horizontal level several times. Thus, the pair trades around a confluence level considering the support of the SMA 30 and horizontal level. A bullish momentum may create enough volatility and push the price towards the North. The price may find its next resistance around 0.67000.

If the price breaches the level, the sellers may look to go short upon having breakout confirmation followed by a bearish reversal signal


EUR/USD: Bull Looks Stronger

The price has been choppy for a while around the simple moving average 30’s support. The buyers will be eagerly waiting to get a bullish reversal signal to go long in the pair and push it towards the North.

However, the sellers may wait to sneak their chances as well. If the price makes a bearish breakout at the SMA 30 and confirms the breakout, they may wait to get a bearish reversal pattern at the value areas to go short and drive the price towards the South.


AUD/USD: Confluence Level is in Play

The price has been on consolidation around the simple moving average 30 for a while. The horizontal level 0.65550 has been working as a support as well.
A bullish momentum may create enough volatility and push the price towards the North. The price may find its next resistance around 0.67000.

On the contrary, if the price breaches the level, the sellers may look to go short upon having breakout confirmation followed by a bearish reversal signal.




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Nikkei Surges to All-Time High as Asia-Pacific Markets Maintain Momentum


Nikkei surges hits all-time high, Asia-Pacific markets remain positive. Global investors eye upcoming economic data.

In a resounding display of market resilience, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index reached an unprecedented pinnacle, soaring to an all-time high of 39,029, eclipsing its previous record set in 1989. Despite subdued business activity data within the nation, investors remained undeterred, propelling the index to a remarkable 1.65% surge.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia held steady, mirroring the cautiously optimistic sentiment following the release of the Judo Bank composite purchasing managers’ index for February, indicating a modest rebound with a reading of 51.8.

As global markets navigate through evolving economic landscapes, the Asia-Pacific region continues to showcase its resilience, with Japan’s Nikkei leading the charge into uncharted territory, setting a bullish tone for investors worldwide.



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Australian Wage Growth Hits 14-Year High, Boosting Aussie Dollar


Australian wage growth surges, hitting a 14-year high, boosting the Australian dollar and influencing global markets.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, wages in Australia surged by 4.2% annually, marking a significant advancement in the labor market and propelling the Australian dollar to a higher trajectory. Both public and private sectors experienced robust wage growth, contributing to the highest wage price index reading since 2009. Industries such as healthcare, social assistance, and education and training saw substantial gains, underlining the broad-based nature of the wage increase.

This wage surge has been consistent over the past seven quarters, reflecting a sustained upward trend in the Australian economy. Following the release of this data, the Australian dollar saw a climb from 0.65550 to as high as 0.6573, indicating market optimism and confidence in the Australian economic outlook.

Overall, the Australian wage growth figures highlight the economy’s resilience and potential impact on global market dynamics, setting the stage for continued monitoring and analysis by investors and policymakers alike.


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Market Update: Hong Kong Strong Surge Amidst Economic Indicators


Asian markets fluctuate; the Hong Kong surge while Japan faces setbacks amid global economic indicators and volatile trading.

Hong Kong, February 21, 2024 – The Asian stock markets experienced mixed fortunes today as they navigated through global economic indicators and volatile trading patterns. The Nikkei in Japan faced a setback, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong surged significantly.


News & Data Highlights

(CAD) CPI m/m 0.0% vs 0.4% expected
(CAD) Median CPI y/y 3.3% vs 3.6% expected
(CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y 3.4% vs 3.6% expected


Upcoming Events


7:00 PM GMT – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes


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