EFA Learning

*Consistency vs. Chasing Returns: A 19-Year Investment Story*

Let’s look at a real example from 2006 to 2024:

• Large-cap was the top performer 7 times.
• Mid-cap was the top performer 6 times.
• Small-cap was the top performer 6 times.

Now imagine two investors:

1. Investor A: They changed their strategy every year, always investing in the previous year’s best-performing index. For example, they invested in Small-cap in 2017, switched to Mid-cap in 2018, and Large-cap in 2019.

• Return: 15.5%
• SIP Value in 19 Years(₹20,000/month): ₹2.42 crore.

2. Investor B: They picked the Mid-cap index ( as example) and stayed invested through all ups and downs.
• Return: 18.1%
• SIP Value in 19 years (₹20,000/month): ₹3.28 crore.

The Impact on Portfolio
By staying consistent, Investor B earned ₹86 lakh more while investing the same amount each month.

More Importantly…
Investor B didn’t worry about switching strategies or market cycles. Instead, they stayed focused on their long-term goals and allowed their investments to grow steadily.

Investor B focused on career and business growth without worrying about daily events or market news.

Stayed invested for the long term and avoided frequent changes, leading to less stress and better results.



Key is to stay the course and Plan for goal always. Its Simple but not Easy.
Data source: Whiteoak capital MF

Dear Investor,

Greetings of the day!!

We have organized a very interesting session for you this Saturday, 23rd Nov 2024 !

💥 Topic 💥

Saturday School - स्मार्ट निवेश की रणनीति !!!!

💥 SPEAKER 💥

Mr. Nirmay Choksi - Associate Director & Head of Research - NJ AMC

Mr. Nirmay Choksi has started as a Research Analyst with the AMC.He has been instrumental in developing the SMART Beta platform (in-house proprietary model) of the Company, which is used for creation of portfolios for both Mutual Fund and Portfolio Management Service segments.
Mr. Nirmay Choksi by qualification is BSc. in Accounting & Finance (Honours) from The University of Warwick.

Block your time this coming “Saturday” to know more about स्मार्ट निवेश की रणनीति?.

📅 DATE & TIME 🕰️

Coming Saturday - 23rd Nov, 2024 at 6:00 pm

📎Registration Link 📎:
https://tinyurl.com/ycs3mz58?id=2167&brcode=36048

*Reasons for Current Market Decline*

1. High Valuations: valuations were already high that led to a correction as markets priced in weaker growth prospects. It’s a healthy correction.

2. Weak Corporate Earnings: Disappointing Q2 results, with several sectors missing earnings expectations, triggered a downgrade in market sentiment.

Urban consumption slowdown due to high food prices and high real estate prices has been key highlight in this Q2 results.



3. Demand weakness: We have seen demand weakness in business like QSR, Fashion retailers, FMCG, Autos, electricals etc. So, in summary People have spent less in past few months.


4. Global Macro Headwinds: Uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election persists and its potential economic impact contributed to foreign equity outflows.

5. Higher Equity Issuance: Increased supply in the primary market has diluted demand for existing equities.


6. Macroeconomic Moderation: Slower high-frequency macroeconomic indicators and rising concerns over consumption trends added to investor caution.

*What can you do in Current markets?*

Accumulate Good Funds: The current market downturn presents an opportunity to invest in Quality funds with strong fund management teams.

Maintain a Long-Term Perspective: Market corrections are a natural part of investing.

Staying committed to your long-term financial goals can help navigate short-term volatility. Why think a lot today if your goal is at 2030, 2034 or 2044.

Diversify Your Portfolio: Spreading investments across various sectors and asset classes can mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations.

Think debt for 1 week to 1 year kind of investment. For 1-3 years, Hybrids can be good for portfolio.

For long term Equities still remains strong. Ultimately link investment with your future goal

Monitor Economic Indicators: Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors, corporate earnings, and global events that may influence market dynamics.


• Consult Financial Advisors: Seek professional guidance to tailor investment strategies that align with your risk tolerance and financial objectives.

Thank you
Deepak taunk, AMFI registered Mutual fund Distributor (288057) & Chartered financial goal Planner®

Market Update-21/11/24

Sensex:77155.79(-422.59)

Nifty:23349.90(-168.60)

10yrGSec:6.86

INR/USD:84.51

Gold-24k(1gm):7656

Crude Oil-Brent:73.77

Ignore arbitrage fund as they are hedged


Most impacted are ETF and Quant funds.

In short Some ETF, Index funds and Quant mutual fund are most impacted.

Are you Impacted by Adani group stocks have crashed due to Bribery allegation in US.

The major impact is seen in Quant funds which have heavily invested in Adani enterprises and Adani power. Also some index funds like Nifty 50 equal weight, Nifty 50 index funds, Nifty 500 momentum 50, Nifty next 50 ETF, Nifty 200 momentum 30 , Metal ETF and some others.

Apart from that some schemes of Tata and SBI are impacted but they have managed the weight less so it wont get much impact.

Adani enterprise

Major stake is owned by Quant mutual funds. Some ETF like Metal ETF, NIFTY 50 equal weight index

Adani ports

Nifty 500 momentum 50 Index, Nifty 200 momentum 30 index, Nifty 50 Index fund. Some Equity with low weight in savings funds of Tata, ABSL and edelweiss are impacted.

Adani power

Quant ELSS, Quant flexi, quant large and mid cap. Some index funds like Nifty 500 momentum 50, Nifty consumption ETF, Nifty next 50 etf

Adani Total gas
Nifty next 50 ETF, NIFTY 100 INDEX FUNDS,

Adani Energy solution
Tata resources, tata infra, tata large cap, nifty 100 equal weight.

Understanding and Overcoming Biases in Investing


Investing isn't just about numbers—it's also about psychology. Our minds, shaped by thousands of years of evolution, sometimes trick us into making irrational financial decisions.

Let’s explore how cognitive biases influence your investment behavior and, more importantly, how to overcome them.
________
What Are Cognitive Biases?
Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts or errors in thinking that can impact decisions. They are broadly divided into:
1. Emotional Biases:
o Driven by feelings like fear or greed.
o Hard to control but often lead to impulsive actions.
2. Cognitive Errors:
o Stem from flawed logic or information processing.
o Easier to correct than emotional biases.

Common examples include:
• Overconfidence Bias: Believing you know more than you do. I use that product and this the best product and I must buy it without research.
• Loss Aversion: Fearing losses more than valuing gains. I need assured 15% returns from equity and portfolio should not go down. Never happens like that.
• Herd Mentality: Following the crowd without analysis. My friend is buying so I mustnot be left behind.
• Recency Bias: Giving too much weight to recent events. If Stock has gone up, it will go up forever.

________
Why Do These Biases Exist?
Think of ancient humans trying to survive in the wild. Loss aversion helped them avoid danger, and herd mentality ensured they stayed within the group for safety. However, these instincts don’t serve us well in investing today. For instance:
• A Rs 1 lakh loss often feels far worse than the joy of a Rs 1 lakh gain.
• Following others into popular funds (like small-cap themes) may lead to overexposure to risks.
________

How to Overcome Investment Biases
Here are actionable strategies to keep biases in check:

1. Hit Pause:
When faced with a big decision, wait a day or a week. Often, doing nothing is the best action.

2. Use a Journal:
Document your investment decisions. Over time, patterns emerge that show where you excel and where biases might be creeping in.

3. Get a Devil’s Advocate:
Have someone challenge your decisions. This person can help highlight blind spots you might miss.

4. Limit FOMO:
Opportunities are like buses—miss one, and another will come. Avoid chasing trends without analysis.


Final Thoughts
Recognizing your biases is the first step to better investing. By adopting strategies to mitigate these quirks, you can make rational decisions and navigate the markets more effectively. Remember, the key is not to eliminate biases entirely but to manage them wisely.

Last week, I had the opportunity to address leading mutual fund professionals of Ahmedabad, sharing insights on goal-based planning, portfolio reviews, risk management and smart asset allocation.

Thank you to all well wishers in Telegram and YouTube for being an important part of this journey!

Good short e book on investing

Good Evening

This is to inform you that due to the General Assembly Elections in Maharashtra, Stock Exchanges will remain closed on 20th November 2024.

As a result, NO trading activity (both Mutual Fund & Capital Market) will be carried out on this day.



Additionally, there will be no pay-in/pay-out of funds or securities on 20th November 2024.

https://youtu.be/upUJbRXgEf4

The best day to start your SIP?

Any day of the month! A 28 Years Data shows that the difference in returns based on SIP dates is negligible. The key is consistency, not the date. Best day can be 1-7 days after your salary day .

However it will also depend on your monthly cash flow and comfort.

Good Morning!


Let’s Own This Week with new opportunities!

Start this week with focus, positivity, and purpose. Wishing you a productive and fulfilling week ahead! 💪✨

https://youtu.be/rkGJYRSfiBQ

*Buy home with smart planning.*

To Open Your Account, Please Click on Below Link.
http://p.njw.bz/36048

*Exclusive Benefits for clients*

Seamless transaction and execution support

Portfolio review

Goal planning  and Regular Monitoring 

Access to Premium Learning resources & Analysis

Professional investment guidance

Access to Exclusive Mutual fund events  

Periodic Rebalancing

Customised Asset allocation

Curated & focused investment strategy

 Free app and portfolio construction related support.

Don't blindly buy Index funds or ETF.

*If you buy the index, You cannot beat the index*

Check above message.

Good Morning

Interesting SIP story

First 5 years: Don’t worry phase. Markets will be volatile. Just keep on Investing and collect Units.

6-10 years of SIP. Stay patient phase. Markets can be rangebound and volatile. Collect Units.

After 10 years. You have seen Ups and Down of Markets. But now wealth creation and compounding kicks in.

Initially the biggest risk is not investing. Let money work for you.

In 5 years we will forget if nifty was 24000 or 25000 in 2024.

Just like we have forgotten Nifty levels in 2019.

https://youtu.be/fkmIbs7HMjw

PICTURE DEPICING LARGE CAP, MID CAP AND SMALL CAP

Which fund category do you think can provide exposure to all 3.

Detailed Google form for Mutual funds discussion : https://forms.gle/S9QjV7eyegrsWzmz8

It’s Never Too Late: Reaching Financial Goals Even if You Start at 40



Lets see some practical aspects with numbers.



Often at the age range of 23 to 28, certain things impact the professionals.



- You are a fresher. Probably your salary is low

- You are exploring other career options. Career is not stable. You may not like the company or sector where you are working.

- Education loan EMI can be present.

- You need to send some money to your home.



This leaves little to no time to explore investing options. You either skip it or do some random investments without any plan.



Lets assume you have skipped investment and your age is 40 today. Is everything lost for you?



Lets explore career and life now.



- You are stable in your job or sector where you are working.

- Your earning was 40k per month as fresher. Today its probably 2 lac/ 3 lac/ 5 lac or even more.

- You will have family and kids. Home loan and Vehicle loan EMIs would be major expenses today.

- More importantly, you will have higher savings and money in the Bank now.



Now plan for a goal. The goal can be 4 crore by the age of 55.



Age 25

13000 SIP for 30 years will suffice. Plain and simple.



Age 40

You need 84000 SIP. Looks daunting but remember you have advantage of higher savings.



You can customize your approach.

- Do Lumpsum of 40 lac+ SIP of 37000

- Do lumpsum of 50 lac+ SIP of 26000

- Do lumpsum of 60 lac+ SIP of 14500

- Do lumpsum of 75 lac. No SIP required to reach goal of 4 cr by age of 55.



One critical assumption here is the stability of a career and more savings in a Bank account. You can start investing anytime. Focus on career and salary.

Key aspect

- Equity markets are volatile. Don’t look for Nifty levels.

- Keep a stable career and a higher job.

- In 15 years, you will probably won't remember whether Nifty was at 24000 or 25000 in 2024. Don’t time the market.

- Think long-term.



----

I am an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Practitioner and Certified Financial Goal Planner from the American Academy of Financial Management.



Lets discuss your financial goals. Our focus is regular guidance on goal planning, portfolio reviews, risk management and mutual fund investments.



To schedule a meeting, simply fill out the Google Form in the post below.

https://youtu.be/BAzh7p0D7cM

Market Update-06/11/24

Sensex:80378.13(+901.50)

Nifty:24484.05(+270.75)

10yrGSec:6.83

INR/USD:84.32

Gold-24k(1gm):7811

Crude Oil-Brent:74.66

Breaking the Myth: Mutual Funds Aren't Just About Stocks.

Many people think that mutual funds are solely about investing in the stock market. However, mutual funds are much more versatile, offering a variety of investment options to suit different financial goals, time horizons, and risk appetites.

Here’s a quick overview:

1. Equity Funds: We know that and listen a lot about them. These are what most people think of when they hear "mutual funds." Equity funds invest in stocks and aim for long-term growth, making them suitable for investors who can tolerate some risk for higher returns.

2. Debt Funds: Markets may fall 10% in 2 months but here are debt funds which will have no relation with equity/ stock market. Unlike equity funds, debt funds invest in bonds, government securities, and other fixed-income instruments.

They aim for stability and steady returns with lower risk, making them a good choice for conservative investors or short-term goals.


3. Hybrid Funds: These funds blend both stocks and bonds in a single portfolio, offering a balance between growth and stability. Hybrid funds are designed for those who want moderate risk with exposure to multiple asset classes, perfect for diversified growth without high volatility.

DSP NETRA

Shift Towards Large Caps: The recent outperformance of large-cap stocks signals a potential opportunity to focus on them, as small and midcaps reach historically high valuations.

Consider Rebalancing for Valuation: With small and midcap indices at peak relative levels, large caps now appear more attractively valued, making them a strong option for new or incremental investments.

Market Update-04/11/24

Sensex:78782.24(-941.88)

Nifty:23995.35(-309.00)

10yrGSec:6.84

INR/USD:84.12

Gold-24k(1gm):7844

Crude Oil-Brent:75.05

Pain for short term investor.

Great view for a long term investor whose goals are retirement, wealth creation, childs education after a decade.

Reached 1.32 Crore Viewers on Youtube.



Objective: Helping viewers understand Mutual Funds and Personal Finance through clear, simple content on my YouTube channel.



Added bonus: Many have become clients, trusting me on their journey to wealth creation and goal-based investing

In last 15 years, there has been 20 instances where markets have fallen 5% or more. Post correction, we have seen strong bounceback too. So correction is a feature of markets and ally of long term goal based investors whose goals are at least 5 years away.

On a broader level, The trade is all about INDIA. We have some encouraging news here.
•  Strong Economy: India’s economy is stable with strong GDP growth and low inflation.

•  Infrastructure Investment: India plans to invest around $1.7 trillion in infrastructure by 2030.

•  Boost in Manufacturing: Reforms like production-linked incentives aim to raise manufacturing's GDP share.

•  Growing Exports: Indian exports are set to grow around 15%, targeting $2 trillion by 2030.

•  Rising Consumption: Trends in urbanization, digitization, and financial growth are boosting consumer spending.

•  Corporate Profitability: Corporate earnings are rising due to increased private investments and consumer spending.

•  Interest Rates: The RBI’s stable rates since April 2023 signal potential future rate cuts, benefiting growth.

•  Future Economic Power: India is projected to become the third-largest economy globally by 2030.

•  Investment Appeal: Stable growth, political stability, and market resilience make India attractive for investors.

•  Wealth Creation Potential: Investing steadily or through SIPs can help capture India’s long-term growth opportunities.

Stay on the journey and accumulate as many Mutual fund Units as possible at the start of the journey.

Good morning. Presenting the latest note by HSBC on Recent market corrections.

Some important Dividend eX DATE Next week

50000 monthly expenses will be close to 200000 after 20 years.

You will need 5.2 crore during retirement that time.

You need to plan it today with Monthly SIP of 50000 today.

✨Happy Diwali to Dear Group members

🎆Wishing you a Diwali filled with Wealth, Health, and Happiness. May new opportunities bring you and your loved ones abundant success! 🪔

– Deepak Taunk

Some companies which are diversifying and possibly creating new growth opportunities

*Light up your financial well-being with SIP.*

To Open Your Account, Please Click on Below Link.
http://p.njw.bz/36048

*Exclusive Benefits for clients*

Seamless transaction and execution support

Goal planning  and Regular Monitoring 

Access to Premium Learning resources & Analysis

Professional investment guidance

Access to Exclusive Mutual fund events  

Periodic Rebalancing and Portfolio review

Customised Asset allocation

Curated & focused investment strategy

 Free app and portfolio construction related support.

Market Update-29/10/24

Sensex:80369.03(+363.99)
Nifty:24466.85(+127.70)

10yrGSec:6.85

INR/USD:84.08

Gold-24k(1gm):7885

Crude Oil-Brent:72.06

On this blessed Dhanteras, may fortune and happiness light up your life.



May your investments flourish and bring prosperity to you and your loved ones.



Happy Dhanteras!

When you will reach your goals In 2032 or 2036 or 2040, you will not remember Stock market levels in October 2024.

Don't worry, today is time to accumulate units.

*Build a financially secure future and plan for wealth creation with Goals*

----

Advantages of professional support by Us

Seamless transaction and execution support

Goal Based Investment support ( Retirement, child education etc)

Professional portfolio review at regular intervals.

Access to Exclusive Mutual fund events 

Periodic Rebalancing

Monitoring of portfolio

Customised Asset allocation


Free app and portfolio construction related support

Curated and focused investment strategy.

Get market insights on regular basis on WhatsApp.

To Open Your Account,Please Click on Below Link.
http://p.njw.bz/36048

We can discuss in consultation call by Filling Google form.
https://forms.gle/S9QjV7eyegrsWzmz8

Wishing lots of wealth with Goal Planning

By
Deepak taunk
AMFI registered
Chartered financial goal planner

There is bonus adjustement is Reliance.

VOLATILITY IN EQUITIES DECREASES WITH TIME.

https://www.businesstoday.in/personal-finance/investment/story/indian-equities-us-markets-gold-debt-or-property-which-asset-class-has-delivered-highest-returns-over-15-20-yrs-441690-2024-08-16

Can we think like that?
We invest in Gold and Real estate and we forget it. We keep them for decades.
Can we think Equity where we invest in companies which will grow as India will grow. We use the products of those companies in daily life.

Some of the examples are SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC, HUL, Bajaj finance, Britannia, Nestle, Cipla, Asian paints, Bharat petroleum, Maruti, Tata motors and many more. ( No recommendations).

We consume and companies make profit. We can be part of that journey of the company. As profits will come so will be the value of these companies.

But….

Markets are volatile.

In one year, the probability of loss is 26% historically. It has happened in history. But as your tenure increases, the probability of losses decreases.
In 5 years, positive returns will be 93%+ times with average return of 15.79%. Those who stay in the journey for 12 years and more, they are always in profit.

Now, think as long term investor just like Gold and real estate investor.
A 20 year return in real estate is 8.4% only ( This will shock many).
A 20 year gold return is 12.8% ( This is decent)
A 20 year return in Nifty is 16.1%.( Money has grown 20 times).

Key lesson
Stay in the game for long term.
Choose good fund houses and fund managers.
Focus on your core income from your job and business.
Think equity for decades.

13 companies dividend

https://youtu.be/KJ3GcFcGlAI

One illustration of SWP

MUTUAL FUND EVENT STARTS AT 6:00 PM

This is about OCTOBER 2018 When I was working as Wealth manager. I was in the office and watching the markets.



Nifty levels on Oct 1 was 11008.

Nifty levels after 4 days on October 5. 10316.



A good -6.7% fall in 5 days. It was panic kind of situations in dealing room. The trading desk looked the screen in horror.



I remember News Headlines that time IL&FS liquidity crisis, Trump trade war threats, and oil touched a high of $86. Headlines are depressing at any time.



What did I think?

My clients have SIP dates on 5th , 7th and 10th… What a time of fall. They get more units now.

---



Fast forward to October 2024, Nifty levels are 24000. Its 15% CAGR returns from that point.



Key points

1. News headlines will be depressing every time. Don’t give much attention to it. Our country will do well so will our companies.



2. Your goal of retirement and child education is at 2032 or 2040. How much a fall October 2024 will matter to you. You will forget it in 3 months. Think about reaching your goals by accumulating more units.





3. Market falls are Good for long term players. Market gets cheaper. You get better quality business at lower value.



4. Stay in the game. Those who stay for long wins.

Very interesting session of Mutual funds, Investing, savings and personal finance.

Link above ⬆⬆⬆

Dear Investor,

Greetings of the day!!

We have organized a very interesting session for you this Saturday, 26th OCT 2024 !

💥 Topic 💥

Saturday School - Bachat,Badhat Aur Aamdani

💥 SPEAKER 💥

Mr. Kalpen Parekh - MD & CEO of DSP Investment Managers Pvt Ltd

Mr Kalpen Parekh is the Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer of DSP Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. and a member of the Executive Committee.Mr Kalpen has over 19 years of experience in sales across client segments, distribution and marketing.Mr Kalpen holds a Master's Degree in Management Studies in Finance from the Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, as well as a Bachelor's Degree in Chemical Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth, Pune.

Block your time this coming “Saturday” to know more about Bachat,Badhat Aur Aamdani.

📅 DATE & TIME 🕰️

Coming Saturday - 26th Oct, 2024 at 06:00 PM

📎Registration Link 📎:
https://livestream.njgroup.in/event/register.php?id=2131&brcode=36048

When you will reach your goals In 2032 or 2036 or 2040, you will not remember Stock market levels in October 2024.

Don't worry, today is time to accumulate units.

*Build a financially secure future and plan for wealth creation with Goals*

----

Advantages of professional support by Us

Seamless transaction and execution support

Goal Based Investment support ( Retirement, child education etc)

Professional portfolio review at regular intervals.

Access to Exclusive Mutual fund events 

Periodic Rebalancing

Monitoring of portfolio

Customised Asset allocation


Free app and portfolio construction related support

Curated and focused investment strategy.

Get market insights on regular basis on WhatsApp.

To Open Your Account,Please Click on Below Link.
http://p.njw.bz/36048

We can discuss in consultation call by Filling Google form.
https://forms.gle/S9QjV7eyegrsWzmz8

Wishing lots of wealth with Goal Planning

By
Deepak taunk
AMFI registered
Chartered financial goal planner