xChief - Global

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📊 Weekly changes in US Unemployment Claims

Actual: 213K
Forecast: 220K
Previous: 219K (updated from 217K)

⬇️The decline in the number of unemployed indicates relative stability in the US labor market, but the continued increase in applicants could be a sign of future employment challenges.

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🎙 Comments of BoE's Ramsden:
Inflation is close to the target.
Service inflation: still at a high level.
The UK economy: has returned to a more normal state and therefore a gradual monetary approach seems appropriate.
Examining the labor market: it needs more care and attention.

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➡️ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

Actual: -5.5
Forecast: 8.0
Previous: 10.3

A decline in the index indicates weakness in the manufacturing sector and the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth, which could put more pressure on the Fed's monetary policies in the future.

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​#StockMarket #Oil #OPEC
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📌 Will oil survive without a risk premium?
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Major oil traders assess Trump's foreign policy as extremely negative. The multi-year geopolitical risk premium traditionally characteristic of oil has virtually evaporated.
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Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, oil futures have regularly traded above so-called fair value, which was driven by the threat of supply disruptions. However, that risk premium has disappeared even amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The reason is Trump's threat to limit crude oil exports from Iran.
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In the options market, the premium for bullish call options over bearish put options (the so-called “war premium”) on Brent crude oil, has fallen by about $2, becoming negative for the first time since 2021.
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OPEC+ has little room to manoeuvre on oil policy when it meets in December: increasing production is risky due to weak demand, and deepening supply cuts is difficult. The cartel may push back production increases again due to weak global oil demand.
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The lack of a risk premium is the latest sign that traders don't expect a big boost in the crude market and are preparing for a glut in the market that could mitigate any disruptions thanks to record U.S. shale oil production and ample OPEC+ reserve capacity.
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The new White House administration is choosing economic pressure over military action. Iran has already demonstrated its unwillingness to actively engage in conflict by agreeing to stop producing enriched uranium.
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Nevertheless, analysts warn that Trump will enter the presidency in an overly pessimistic mood, and no one can predict his actions in such a state. Still, there is a chance that long-put spreads will become a popular trading strategy to hedge the risk of a prolonged sell-off.
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Profits to y’all!

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0600 – 1.47 bln
1.0690 – 1.55 bln
1.0700 – 2.33 bln

📊 GBP/USD:
1.28 –360.4 mln
1.3285 – 475.7 mln
1.3560 – 413.0 mln

📊 AUD/USD:
0.6450 – 2.0 bln

📊 EUR/GBP:
0.8375 – 375.0 mln

📊 USD/CAD:
1.4000 – 1.06 bln
1.4175 – 1.04 mln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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🇺🇸 Will Trump destroy US health care?

“New” Trump plans to nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to be the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. The Donald believes that for too long Americans have suffered from the industrialized food complex and pharmaceutical companies that have resorted to deception and misinformation on public health issues.

Robert F. Kennedy is a lawyer, eco-activist, leader of the anti-vaccination movement, and proponent of conspiracy theories. Implementing even some of his ideas would require significant rewriting of the laws and would generate serious opposition, starting with the medical community and parts of the Senate.

P.S. The US BigFarma sector has already reacted negatively.

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#NZDJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level is broken at 90.07, the price is expected to fall to 89.50.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 90.50

On the other hand, by breaking the 90.50 range, we can buy with the target at 91.20

⛔️ Stop Loss: 90.07

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#GBPNZD - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the downward trend line is broken at 2.1586, the price is expected to rise to 2.1660.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.1530

On the other hand, if the 2.1530 level is broken, we can sell with a target of 2.1450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.1586

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#GBPJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level at 193.68 is broken, the price is expected to fall to 192.30.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 194.70

On the other hand, by breaking the 194.70 range, we can buy with a target of 196.00.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 193.68

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#DAX40 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level at 18784 is broken, the index is expected to fall to 18300.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19100

On the other hand, if the 19100 level is broken, we expect the index to grow up to 19450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 18784

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#SPX500 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level at 5867, the index is expected to fall to 5790.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5920

On the other hand, if the 5920 level is broken, we can buy with the target of 6000.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5867

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#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the upward trend line at 99.95, the price is expected to fall to 98.80.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.80

On the other hand, by breaking the 100.80 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth to 102.00.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 99.95

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​#worldnews #Trump #Tesla
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🔥 Another business in Trump's favour
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Tesla and crypto aren't all the industries that benefited from Trump's comeback. An "unexpected" beneficiary has been private detention centres – in short, prisons. Since the election results were announced, shares of CoreCivic Inc (NYSE; CXW) and Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO), companies that work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, have surged 75% and 53%, respectively.
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That's due to Trump's tough border enforcement policies, his plan for mass deportations and, finally, fighting crime. And this is a complex and not cheap process.
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Recall: Private Prisons - private companies that contract with the state to manage prisons. Fans of this system believe that it allows the state to save money, as private companies manage prisons more efficiently than public services.
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The head of Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) not unreasonably expects that the new government will fund an additional 70,000 to 100,000 beds in ICE detention centers, double the current 4,500 beds. The company already has a business plan in place.
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CoreCivic is counting on fresh profits, too: the company recently raised its 2024 forecast to $1.59-$1.65 per share, instead of $1.48-$1.56, thanks to an increase in “facility occupancy” from 72% to 75% in the third quarter.
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Analysts don't like to speculate on this slippery (morally speaking) subject, but private prison operators will have revenues of roughly $3 billion in 2025 increase of 24% over the current year.
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Private prison stocks also rose solidly during Trump's first term (especially in late 2016), but then corrected with upward bounces for four years. Trump may now tone down his anti-immigration rhetoric. After all, he also promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico, but in the end, not even a working draft was created. And the prison business is already there.
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P.S. Where's the wall, Donnie?
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Profits to y’all!

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🔴 Russia has threatened to target a US missile base in Poland, saying it could be attacked with new military equipment, a threat that signals rising tensions and nuclear risks between the two countries.

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💵 UBS expects the USD to consolidate at higher levels in the near term, with the USD index up 0.4% to 106.612. While they see a strengthening USD in 2025 and 2026 as likely, tactical reasons such as the possibility of weak economic data reversing the trend are a reason to be cautious in their forecasts. The EUR/USD rate is expected to reach 1.07 by the end of the year.

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💰 BTC at $100,000: what's driving the market

Bitcoin surpassed the $97,000 mark for the first time and hit an all-time high in Thursday morning trading. According to CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency market has consolidated gains of about $900 billion since Trump won the election.

Speculation about the influence of cryptospeculators on the new U.S. president was another trigger for positive sentiment, along with plans by MicroStrategy Inc. to increase its convertible bond issuance by nearly 50% (to $2.6 billion) to fund BTC purchases.

"Buyers are strangling sellers", said IG Australia Pty analyst Tony Sycamore. He also pointed to rumors of a certain big seller getting rid of tokens at just over $90000, taking advantage of the strong market.

P.S. Are you selling or buying?

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🌐 LNG imports to China: there is a problem

LNG shipments to China from the US grew by 63% (y/y), and the positive trend is still in place. The volume of contracts signed for 2026 is three times the current year.

If Trump imposes tariffs against Chinese products, a similar measure could be levied against US imports, including LNG. That's already happened - in 2019. This would be a serious problem for U.S. companies - much more so than for China, which imports only 6% of the LNG it needs from the U.S., and could easily buy that volume from other suppliers.

P.S. The US oil and gas lobby wants global profits, so Trump has a lot to think about.

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☄️ NVIDIA report: the euphoria is off

Nvidia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat analysts' forecasts, but the company's preliminary Q4 guidance and sales mix fell short of expectations. The company reported $0.81 per share (with a forecast of $0.74) and revenue of $35.1 billion. The server segment grew 112%. Gross margin fell slightly to 73% from 75% last quarter. By the way, AMD has 97% gross margin and AVGO has 77%.

Recall: expected revenue of $37.1 billion was the average, with some funds giving a much higher forecast, such as Goldman Sachs ($39 billion). The fact that the values for the next quarter did not exceed the forecast was assessed negatively by the market. In the post-market, the stock declined by 2.7%, despite the fact that Jensen Huang denied Blackwell's overheating problems, rumors about which appeared a couple of days before the report was released.

So far, only crypto is actively reacting positively - major altcoins went up and partially recovered from the day's decline.

The most interesting reaction is expected today at the U.S. trading session.

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⚠️ ECB warns ...

The risk of a debt crisis in individual countries of the union and the eurozone as a whole is extremely high. In its Financial Stability Report published yesterday, the ECB stated the problem of "sovereign debt sustainability". The main reason cited is political uncertainty caused by recent elections at the European and national levels, especially in France. However, the analysis of indicators suggests that there are exact economic reasons for the new crisis. The paper points to high debt levels and budget deficits, rising credit risk, the risk of speculation in equity and bond markets, and a threat to bank balance sheets as consumers and companies in the eurozone already face higher interest rates.

P.S. That is, it is impossible to avoid the crisis, and the recipe for rescue is unclear.

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🇫🇷 Business Climate Index - November

Actual: 97
Forecast: 95
Previous: 92

The increase in the index indicates a relative improvement in the economic situation and market participants' confidence in future growth, which could be a sign of increased investment and economic activity in the country.

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