xChief - Global @xchief_global Channel on Telegram

xChief - Global

@xchief_global

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💳 Various deposit and withdrawal methods
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xChief - Global (English)

Are you looking to enter the world of online trading? Look no further than xChief - Global! This Telegram channel offers a range of exciting bonuses and features to help you kickstart your trading journey. With a $100 No Deposit Bonus and a $500 Welcome Bonus, you'll have plenty of funds to start trading with. xChief - Global also provides various deposit and withdrawal methods, making it easy for you to manage your finances. With leverage of 1:1000 and the narrowest spreads, you can maximize your trading potential. And the best part? You can access all these benefits right from the application! Join the xChief - Global community on Telegram by following @xChief_English. If you have any questions or need assistance, reach out to the admin at @xChief_bot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to boost your trading experience with xChief - Global!

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27 Dec, 13:06

#Brent #WTI Oil rose moderately, ending the week with growth, which is supported by expectations of stimulating growth in the economy of China, the world's largest importer of oil. Also, some support for the market was provided by data on the decline in crude oil inventories in the U.S. According to API, the decrease amounted to 3.2 million barrels. Over the week, Brent rose by 0.5% and WTI by 0.4%.

Nevertheless, the strengthening of the US dollar limited the rise in oil prices. The US currency rose on expectations that Trump's policies will boost inflation.

#CNY Beijing confirmed a 3 trillion ($411 billion) special treasury bond issue next year. Optimism about China's economic growth and oil demand was boosted by a positive GDP outlook, but low household and business confidence will continue to weigh next year.

#EUR The German parliament has been dissolved, with early elections scheduled for Feb. 23. This decision officially supports the plan proposed by Olaf Scholz. The Social Democrat chancellor last month ended his three-party alliance with the Greens and the Free Democrats after he sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner over disagreements over government borrowing.

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27 Dec, 12:19

#USDJPY #BOJ Japan: positivity is not in favour of the yen
The yen is trying to improve its position after the publication of CPI inflation data in Tokyo. This data allows the BOJ to continue raising the interest rate in January.

BOJ published a summary of opinions from its December meeting. So, the monetary regulator:
• Reduced Japan's monthly government bond purchases to ¥4.50 trillion (previously ¥4.91 trillion)
• Conducted modelling of several scenarios, including a situation in which short-term rates rise to about 1% to 2% over several years, while the spread between short-term and long-term rates is between 0.25% and 0.75%.
• According to the analysis, in the worst-case scenario, in which rates rise to 2% and the spread increases by only 0.25%, BOJ would incur an annual net loss of about ¥2 trillion ($13 billion) in fiscal years 2027 and 2028.
• Under the same scenario, losses are further reduced and the bank's profit will turn positive around FY 2031.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY tested its one-month high at 158.08 today. A break above this level will help the pair to easily advance to the round level of 159.00 on the way to the next significant level of 160.30. Nevertheless, traders who are bullish on the pair need to be cautious.

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27 Dec, 10:31

⚠️ The information is valid until the close of the next week. Recall: the decline in activity of major markets causes the movement of speculative capital into crypto, so there is no lack of trading volumes. Nevertheless, speculators are gradually losing interest in sales, there are no large pending positions below key levels. But the crypto market is not ready for a trend reversal yet. We are waiting for a strong technical correction.

Prospective positioning for January – see our signals next week.

#BTCUSD

🔴 Key zone: 94500 – 98500

⬆️ Buy: 100500 (only on confident breakdown of 100K zone); first target 103500, then 105500/800; StopLoss 99500
⬇️ Sell: 92500; target 87500; StopLoss 93500

#ETHUSD

🔴 Key zone: 3250 – 3550

⬆️ Buy: 3650; target 4100 ; StopLoss 3550
⬇️ Sell: 3250; first target 3000, then 2850 ; StopLoss 3350

#LTCUSD

🔴 Key zone: 95.00 – 105.00

⬆️ Buy: 108.50; first target 115.00, then 122.00 ; StopLoss 105.50
⬇️ Sell: 93.50; first target 85.00, then 80.00; StopLoss 95.00

#XRPUSD

🔴 Key zone: 2.00 –2.40

⬆️ Buy: 2.45; target 2.80, then 3.10; StopLoss 2.25
⬇️ Sell: 2.00; target 1.80, then 1.60; StopLoss 2.20

❗️ The information represents the opinion of the xChief team and does not constitute investment advice. You make your own trading decision.

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27 Dec, 08:17

Crude #brent  price suffers some losses #oil  – Forecast today - 27-12-2024

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27 Dec, 06:01

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26 Dec, 20:30

🗓 Recall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time):

Fri, 27

🇺🇸 USD: Goods Trade Balance, Retail Inventories Ex Auto, S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (13:30)

🇺🇸 USD: U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig, Hughes Total Rig Count (18:00)

For more news − see Economic Calendar.

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26 Dec, 13:46

#BTCUSD #Crypto #TradingView Bitcoin is trading in high volatility mode and was down nearly 4% at one point due to a technical glitch on the popular TradingView platform. BTCUSD was approaching the $95K mark when social media users reported an anomaly on TradingView's bitcoin dominance chart. It showed bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market falling to 0%, and it caused people to panic dump money. The technical error was quickly fixed, but it was what caused the sharp trading reaction.
Bitcoin's dominance in the market is becoming an increasingly hot topic for traders, as new all-time highs are creating extremely unfavourable market conditions for altcoins.

#BTCUSD #Ethereum #Crypto Tomorrow, December 27, the Deribit platform will host the expiration of bitcoin options with a nominal volume of $14.5 billion. The ratio of puts to calls is 0.69. The level of the largest losses for buyers of contracts is located at $85,000. Earlier, CryptoQuant noted the active demand of speculators in the background of Bitcoin's fall.

#BTCUSD #Ethereum #ETF #Crypto On December 23, the outflow from spot exchange-traded funds based on bitcoin amounted to $226.6 million. Negative dynamics continue for the third day in a row with a total of $1.18 billion. The total inflow since the approval of BTC-ETF in January decreased to $35.83 billion. At the same time, investors sent $130.8 million to spot Ethereum-ETFs. Experts are confident that the movement of capital from BTC to ETH-ETFs could push the second most capitalized cryptocurrency to a new all-time high.

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26 Dec, 12:58

#USDCNY #Xiaomi #China Xiaomi announced that it is joining the electric vehicle charging station networks of its competitors NIO, XPeng and Li Auto. The partnership will give Xiaomi's automotive customers access to more than 29,000 charging stations across China.

The company, which launched its first auto in March 2024, has seen strong sales figures. Before the Christmas holiday, Xiaomi (HK:1810) shares closed at HKD32.75, up more than 50% year-to-date. This is attributed to strong financial performance and better-than-expected results from its electric car business.

#CNY #China China will build the world's largest hydropower plant in southern Tibet. This hydropower plant is projected to generate about 300 billion kWh per year. The project is important to the country's strategy to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, as well as to combat global climate change. Beijing is expected to spend more than 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) on the largest energy infrastructure project.

#CNY #China #World Bank The World Bank has raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 to account for the effects of monetary easing and short-term export strength. China's GDP growth is now expected to be 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously projected 4.8%. In 2025, Chinese GDP will still slow down to 4.5%, but this will still be higher than the previous forecast of 4.1%.

#CNY #China #Alibaba #EMart Alibaba is close to a $4 billion deal with E-Mart, South Korea's most popular supermarket chain. The companies are poised to combine their online shopping assets in a deal that will help counter local rivals such as Naver Corp and Coupang Inc.

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26 Dec, 08:31

⚠️ The information is up to date until the close of the year. We remind about the strict connection of stock indices with fundamental factors of major currencies. Low market liquidity in the presence of active speculators provoking short-term pre-New Year rally makes opening new positions extremely risky.

Positioning for January - see our signals next week.

#DXY

🔴 Key zone: 106.50 – 107.20

⬆️ Buy: 108.50 ; target 110.00; StopLoss 108.00
⬇️ Sell: 107.50 (only after a confident breakdown of the zone 108.00); target 105.50; StopLoss 108.20

#SP500

🔴 Key zone: 6000– 6100

⬆️ Buy: 6120 (only after a confident breakdown of the zone 6100) ; target 6300; StopLoss 6050
⬇️ Sell: 5920; target 5725; StopLoss 6000

#NQ100

🔴 Key zone: 21400 – 21700

⬆️ Buy: 22050 (only after a confident breakdown of the zone 22000); target 23100; StopLoss 21500
⬇️ Sell: 21400; target 20500; StopLoss 21000

#NIKK225

🔴 Key zone: 39200 – 39800

⬆️ Buy: 39800/40000; target 41500; StopLoss 39200
⬇️ Sell: 38700; target 37500; StopLoss 39200

#FTSE100

🔴 Key zone: 8250 – 8350

⬆️ Buy: 8200; target 8350; StopLoss 8150
⬇️ Sell: 8070; target 7940; StopLoss 8120

❗️ The information represents the opinion of the xChief team and does not constitute investment advice. You make your own trading decision.

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26 Dec, 06:01

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25 Dec, 20:31

🗓 Recall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time):

Thu, 26

🇹🇷 TRY: One-Week Repo Rate (11:00)

🇺🇸 USD: Initial Jobless Claims (13:30)

🇺🇸 USD: Crude Oil Inventories (+Cushing) (16:00)

🇺🇸 USD: 7-Year Note Auction (18:00)

🇺🇸 USD: Fed's Balance Sheet (21:30)

🇯🇵 JPY: Tokyo Core CPI (23:30); Industrial Production (23:50)

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25 Dec, 12:17

#JPMorgan #BofA #Citigroup #WellsFargo Seven major financial institutions - JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, US Bank, PNC and Truist - made 56% ($88bn) of all US banks' profits in 9M 2024. A year ago their share was 48%. With the arrival of Trump, the trend of growth of large banks will continue: due to the weakening of regulation of the industry, large banks will more actively absorb small banks (now M&A deals among banks are under the ban of the Biden administration).

#JPMorgan #BofA #Citigroup #BPI #ABA Major banking groups including the Bank Policy Institute and American Bankers Association have filed suit against the Fed in federal court in the Southern District of Ohio. The plaintiffs allege that the criteria used by the regulator to conduct stress tests are developed in strict secrecy, resulting in unreasonable requirements and restrictions on bank capital.
Industry groups representing banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. among others, said they can't be sure the Fed's announced changes will ensure that the damage arising under the current system is addressed promptly.

#BNP #CreditAgricole #Moodys Rating Agency Moody's announced it has downgraded the credit ratings of leading French banks BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole. The decision follows a general downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating: rising public debt and slowing economic growth are increasing financial pressure on the country.

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25 Dec, 11:17

#AUD #ASX200 Shares of Australian companies rose at the close of trading on Wednesday thanks to gains in the real estate investment, healthcare and energy sectors. EML Payments Ltd (ASX: EML) shares were the biggest gainers for the session (+12.86%), Cromwell Property Group (ASX: CMW) added 5.26% and Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) rose 3.91%. Leading the losers was St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM), which lost more than 36% of its price.
At the close of trading in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 index was up 0.24%.

#AUDUSD even though the RBA rate is currently already higher than the Fed Funds rate, the AUD/USD exchange rate continues to remain under strong pressure. The reason here is largely political – investors are waiting for specifics on the Trump administration's tariff policy directed against China. The attractiveness of the Australian stock market is declining, especially stocks in the commodities sector. As a result, the Australian stock index S&P/ASX 200 is growing slower than the S&P 500, which reduces the overall demand for the currency. From the technical point of view AUD/USD is in the oversold zone, so the possibility of correction cannot be excluded, but there are no fundamental factors for growth.

#AUD #RBA The RBA remains the only one of the major monetary regulators that did not change its policy in the outgoing year. Judging by the published minutes, the RBA is confident that inflation is moving towards the target, but the process is incomplete, and this is the only reason holding back the start of the down cycle. Alas, consumer demand remains strong and the labour market is too strong, so the market expects a rate cut in February at the earliest.

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25 Dec, 08:30

⚠️ The information is actual till the year closing. We are reminded of the tight link between cross pairs and the fundamentals of the major currencies. Low market liquidity in the presence of active speculators provoking short-term pre-New Year rally makes opening of new positions an extremely risky experiment.

See positioning for January - watch for our signals next week.

#EURGBP

🔴 Key zone: 0.8250 – 0.8275

⬆️ Buy: 0.8300; target 0.8420. ; StopLoss 0.8250
⬇️ Sell: 0.8250; target 0.8150; StopLoss 0.8275

#EURJPY

🔴 Key zone: 161.30 – 161.80

⬆️ Buy: 164.50. ; target 167.50; StopLoss 163.80
⬇️ Sell: 160.50; target 157.00; StopLoss 161.50

#EURAUD

🔴 Key zone: 1.6650 –1.6710

⬆️ Buy: 1.6720; target 1.6950; StopLoss 1.6650
⬇️ Sell: 1.6500; target 1.6130; StopLoss 1.6570

#AUDJPY

🔴 Key zone: 97.50 –98.50

⬆️ Buy: 99.00; target 102.50; StopLoss 98.20
⬇️ Sell: 97.00; target 94.20; StopLoss 97.80

#GBPJPY

🔴 Key zone: 196.50 –198.00

⬆️ Buy: 198.40; target 202.00; StopLoss 197.80
⬇️ Sell: 195.00; target 191.50; StopLoss 195.80

❗️ The information represents the opinion of the xChief team and does not constitute investment advice. You make your own trading decision.

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25 Dec, 06:00

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24 Dec, 12:17

#JPY #BOJ After the BOJ kept rates on hold, fearing Trump's "new" policies, Ueda said the central bank needs more information, particularly qualitative labour market indicators and an assessment of real wage levels. It also needs an independent assessment of the new U.S. administration's impact on global financial markets, as well as international trade and immigration. Foreign policy is a secondary factor. Japan's domestic economy is not strong enough to raise rates significantly, but maintaining the status quo leads to further yen depreciation and higher inflation. The result of this monetary decision is what we see in the trading terminal.

#JPY #BOJ Japan is trying to limit speculation of a weakening yen and is preparing to intervene in a low-liquidity market. Some hedge funds believe that the yen will be stuck in the 160-165 range against the dollar for a long time. As BOJ chief Ueda is expected to speak tomorrow and details of the past meeting will be released on Friday, intervention in a half-empty holiday market could be very effective.

#JPY #BOJ #GoldmanSachs Global investors have avoided Japanese assets since the August rout, but Goldman analysts now see yen levels as attractive for buying Japanese equities. The risk of further yen weakness is limited and this gives foreign funds the opportunity to buy stocks relatively cheaply right now. New investments of such funds may give the necessary impetus to the Topix index.

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24 Dec, 11:05

Gas panic is on the rise:

#XNGUSD #TTF Gas prices in Europe rose more than 10% in four trading sessions as the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement is just a week away from being finalized. In Amsterdam, futures for benchmark European gas for the next month rose 0.242% to €45.66 per megawatt-hour. The end of the agreement coincided with colder temperatures and low inventories. Current prices already reflect the termination of transit, although the Russia-Ukraine route accounts for only 5% of gas supplies to the EU.

#XNGUSD #NGG5 Europe's gas storage facilities are emptying at a record pace: according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the bloc's storage capacity has fallen by around 19% since the end of September (33% in the Netherlands and 28% in France). Nevertheless, EU storage levels are now at 75%, slightly above the average of the previous 10 years.

#LNG #XNGUSD European traders are facing increased competition for LNG imports from Asian buyers attracted by lower prices compared to previous years. Europe has almost no arguments – most of the countries do not budget for higher gas purchase prices. This leads to a slowdown in imports and the need to be more active.

#LNG #Trump Trump has warned the EU that it must commit to buying "large" volumes of US oil and gas or face new high tariffs. At the same time, Qatar threatened to cut off LNG supplies if member states strictly enforce new legislation that will punish companies that fail to meet carbon, human and labour rights criteria.

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24 Dec, 09:01

⚠️ The information is actual till the year closing. Low market liquidity in the presence of active speculators provoking short-term pre-New Year rally makes opening of new positions an extremely risky experiment.
See positioning for January - watch for our signals next week.

#XTIUSD

🔴 Key zone: 67.50 – 70.20

⬆️ Buy: 70.00; target 76.50; StopLoss 68.50
⬇️ Sell: 67.00; target 63.50; StopLoss 68.50

#XBRUSD

🔴 Key zone: 70.50 – 71.50

⬆️ Buy: 73.50; target 76.50; StopLoss 72.50
⬇️ Sell: 70.50; target 67.50; StopLoss 71.50

#XNGUSD

🔴 Key zone: 3.50 – 3.60

⬆️ Buy: 3.55 only on a confident breakdown of the 3.50 zone; target 3.75; StopLoss 3.45
⬇️ Sell: 3.20; first target 2.90, further 2.50; StopLoss 3.30

#XAUUSD

🔴 Key zone: 2600 – 2650

⬆️ Buy: 2680; first target 2800/50; StopLoss 2600
⬇️ Sell: 2580; first target 2450; StopLoss 2650

#XAGUSD

🔴 Key zone: 29.00 –29.50/80

⬆️ Buy: 30.50 only on confident breakdown of 30.00 zone ; first target 32.50; StopLoss 30.00
⬇️ Sell: 28.50; target 26.50; StopLoss 29.50

❗️ The information represents the opinion of the xChief team and does not constitute investment advice. You make your own trading decision.

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24 Dec, 06:02

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23 Dec, 20:31

🗓 Recall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time):

Tue, 24

🇦🇺 AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes (00:30)

🇯🇵 JPY: BoJ Core CPI (05:00)

🇺🇸 USD: Building Permits, Durable Goods Orders (13:30)

🇺🇸 USD: New Home Sales (15:00)

🇺🇸 USD: 5-Year Note Auction, Atlanta Fed GDPNow (18:00)

🇺🇸 USD: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30)

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21 Nov, 15:53

🔡🔡🔡🔡

📊 Weekly changes in US Unemployment Claims

Actual: 213K
Forecast: 220K
Previous: 219K (updated from 217K)

⬇️The decline in the number of unemployed indicates relative stability in the US labor market, but the continued increase in applicants could be a sign of future employment challenges.

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21 Nov, 15:19

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🎙 Comments of BoE's Ramsden:
Inflation is close to the target.
Service inflation: still at a high level.
The UK economy: has returned to a more normal state and therefore a gradual monetary approach seems appropriate.
Examining the labor market: it needs more care and attention.

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21 Nov, 15:17

🔡🔡🔡🔡

➡️ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

Actual: -5.5
Forecast: 8.0
Previous: 10.3

A decline in the index indicates weakness in the manufacturing sector and the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth, which could put more pressure on the Fed's monetary policies in the future.

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21 Nov, 12:45

​#StockMarket #Oil #OPEC
⠀
📌 Will oil survive without a risk premium?
⠀
Major oil traders assess Trump's foreign policy as extremely negative. The multi-year geopolitical risk premium traditionally characteristic of oil has virtually evaporated.
⠀
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, oil futures have regularly traded above so-called fair value, which was driven by the threat of supply disruptions. However, that risk premium has disappeared even amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The reason is Trump's threat to limit crude oil exports from Iran.
⠀
In the options market, the premium for bullish call options over bearish put options (the so-called “war premium”) on Brent crude oil, has fallen by about $2, becoming negative for the first time since 2021.
⠀
OPEC+ has little room to manoeuvre on oil policy when it meets in December: increasing production is risky due to weak demand, and deepening supply cuts is difficult. The cartel may push back production increases again due to weak global oil demand.
⠀
The lack of a risk premium is the latest sign that traders don't expect a big boost in the crude market and are preparing for a glut in the market that could mitigate any disruptions thanks to record U.S. shale oil production and ample OPEC+ reserve capacity.
⠀
The new White House administration is choosing economic pressure over military action. Iran has already demonstrated its unwillingness to actively engage in conflict by agreeing to stop producing enriched uranium.
⠀
Nevertheless, analysts warn that Trump will enter the presidency in an overly pessimistic mood, and no one can predict his actions in such a state. Still, there is a chance that long-put spreads will become a popular trading strategy to hedge the risk of a prolonged sell-off.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
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21 Nov, 11:30

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0600 – 1.47 bln
1.0690 – 1.55 bln
1.0700 – 2.33 bln

📊 GBP/USD:
1.28 –360.4 mln
1.3285 – 475.7 mln
1.3560 – 413.0 mln

📊 AUD/USD:
0.6450 – 2.0 bln

📊 EUR/GBP:
0.8375 – 375.0 mln

📊 USD/CAD:
1.4000 – 1.06 bln
1.4175 – 1.04 mln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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21 Nov, 11:29

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 Will Trump destroy US health care?

“New” Trump plans to nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to be the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services. The Donald believes that for too long Americans have suffered from the industrialized food complex and pharmaceutical companies that have resorted to deception and misinformation on public health issues.

Robert F. Kennedy is a lawyer, eco-activist, leader of the anti-vaccination movement, and proponent of conspiracy theories. Implementing even some of his ideas would require significant rewriting of the laws and would generate serious opposition, starting with the medical community and parts of the Senate.

P.S. The US BigFarma sector has already reacted negatively.

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21 Nov, 11:20

#NZDJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level is broken at 90.07, the price is expected to fall to 89.50.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 90.50

On the other hand, by breaking the 90.50 range, we can buy with the target at 91.20

⛔️ Stop Loss: 90.07

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21 Nov, 11:20

#GBPNZD - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the downward trend line is broken at 2.1586, the price is expected to rise to 2.1660.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.1530

On the other hand, if the 2.1530 level is broken, we can sell with a target of 2.1450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.1586

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21 Nov, 11:20

#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the upward trend line at 99.95, the price is expected to fall to 98.80.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.80

On the other hand, by breaking the 100.80 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth to 102.00.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 99.95

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21 Nov, 11:20

#SPX500 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level at 5867, the index is expected to fall to 5790.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5920

On the other hand, if the 5920 level is broken, we can buy with the target of 6000.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5867

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21 Nov, 11:20

#DAX40 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level at 18784 is broken, the index is expected to fall to 18300.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19100

On the other hand, if the 19100 level is broken, we expect the index to grow up to 19450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 18784

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21 Nov, 11:20

#GBPJPY - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, if the support level at 193.68 is broken, the price is expected to fall to 192.30.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 194.70

On the other hand, by breaking the 194.70 range, we can buy with a target of 196.00.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 193.68

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21 Nov, 10:35

​#worldnews #Trump #Tesla
⠀
🔥 Another business in Trump's favour
⠀
Tesla and crypto aren't all the industries that benefited from Trump's comeback. An "unexpected" beneficiary has been private detention centres – in short, prisons. Since the election results were announced, shares of CoreCivic Inc (NYSE; CXW) and Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO), companies that work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, have surged 75% and 53%, respectively.
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That's due to Trump's tough border enforcement policies, his plan for mass deportations and, finally, fighting crime. And this is a complex and not cheap process.
⠀
Recall: Private Prisons - private companies that contract with the state to manage prisons. Fans of this system believe that it allows the state to save money, as private companies manage prisons more efficiently than public services.
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The head of Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) not unreasonably expects that the new government will fund an additional 70,000 to 100,000 beds in ICE detention centers, double the current 4,500 beds. The company already has a business plan in place.
⠀
CoreCivic is counting on fresh profits, too: the company recently raised its 2024 forecast to $1.59-$1.65 per share, instead of $1.48-$1.56, thanks to an increase in “facility occupancy” from 72% to 75% in the third quarter.
⠀
Analysts don't like to speculate on this slippery (morally speaking) subject, but private prison operators will have revenues of roughly $3 billion in 2025 increase of 24% over the current year.
⠀
Private prison stocks also rose solidly during Trump's first term (especially in late 2016), but then corrected with upward bounces for four years. Trump may now tone down his anti-immigration rhetoric. After all, he also promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico, but in the end, not even a working draft was created. And the prison business is already there.
⠀
P.S. Where's the wall, Donnie?
⠀
Profits to y’all!
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21 Nov, 08:35

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🔴 Russia has threatened to target a US missile base in Poland, saying it could be attacked with new military equipment, a threat that signals rising tensions and nuclear risks between the two countries.

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21 Nov, 08:33

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💵 UBS expects the USD to consolidate at higher levels in the near term, with the USD index up 0.4% to 106.612. While they see a strengthening USD in 2025 and 2026 as likely, tactical reasons such as the possibility of weak economic data reversing the trend are a reason to be cautious in their forecasts. The EUR/USD rate is expected to reach 1.07 by the end of the year.

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21 Nov, 08:30

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💰 BTC at $100,000: what's driving the market

Bitcoin surpassed the $97,000 mark for the first time and hit an all-time high in Thursday morning trading. According to CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency market has consolidated gains of about $900 billion since Trump won the election.

Speculation about the influence of cryptospeculators on the new U.S. president was another trigger for positive sentiment, along with plans by MicroStrategy Inc. to increase its convertible bond issuance by nearly 50% (to $2.6 billion) to fund BTC purchases.

"Buyers are strangling sellers", said IG Australia Pty analyst Tony Sycamore. He also pointed to rumors of a certain big seller getting rid of tokens at just over $90000, taking advantage of the strong market.

P.S. Are you selling or buying?

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21 Nov, 08:29

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🌐 LNG imports to China: there is a problem

LNG shipments to China from the US grew by 63% (y/y), and the positive trend is still in place. The volume of contracts signed for 2026 is three times the current year.

If Trump imposes tariffs against Chinese products, a similar measure could be levied against US imports, including LNG. That's already happened - in 2019. This would be a serious problem for U.S. companies - much more so than for China, which imports only 6% of the LNG it needs from the U.S., and could easily buy that volume from other suppliers.

P.S. The US oil and gas lobby wants global profits, so Trump has a lot to think about.

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21 Nov, 08:28

🔡🔡🔡🔡

☄️ NVIDIA report: the euphoria is off

Nvidia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat analysts' forecasts, but the company's preliminary Q4 guidance and sales mix fell short of expectations. The company reported $0.81 per share (with a forecast of $0.74) and revenue of $35.1 billion. The server segment grew 112%. Gross margin fell slightly to 73% from 75% last quarter. By the way, AMD has 97% gross margin and AVGO has 77%.

Recall: expected revenue of $37.1 billion was the average, with some funds giving a much higher forecast, such as Goldman Sachs ($39 billion). The fact that the values for the next quarter did not exceed the forecast was assessed negatively by the market. In the post-market, the stock declined by 2.7%, despite the fact that Jensen Huang denied Blackwell's overheating problems, rumors about which appeared a couple of days before the report was released.

So far, only crypto is actively reacting positively - major altcoins went up and partially recovered from the day's decline.

The most interesting reaction is expected today at the U.S. trading session.

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21 Nov, 08:27

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⚠️ ECB warns ...

The risk of a debt crisis in individual countries of the union and the eurozone as a whole is extremely high. In its Financial Stability Report published yesterday, the ECB stated the problem of "sovereign debt sustainability". The main reason cited is political uncertainty caused by recent elections at the European and national levels, especially in France. However, the analysis of indicators suggests that there are exact economic reasons for the new crisis. The paper points to high debt levels and budget deficits, rising credit risk, the risk of speculation in equity and bond markets, and a threat to bank balance sheets as consumers and companies in the eurozone already face higher interest rates.

P.S. That is, it is impossible to avoid the crisis, and the recipe for rescue is unclear.

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21 Nov, 08:13

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇫🇷 Business Climate Index - November

Actual: 97
Forecast: 95
Previous: 92

The increase in the index indicates a relative improvement in the economic situation and market participants' confidence in future growth, which could be a sign of increased investment and economic activity in the country.

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17 Nov, 14:45

#Economic_calendar

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17 Nov, 07:33

#CryptoCurrency_Prices

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16 Nov, 07:30

#CryptoCurrency_Prices

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15 Nov, 13:55

​#worldnews #Gas #OMV
⠀
⚡️ Gas divergence: more expensive in Europe, cheaper in America
⠀
OMV has won €230 million ($243 million) from Russia's Gazprom in an arbitration court and plans to recover this amount immediately by stopping paying for imports. The market can't yet adequately assess the consequences, but gas prices in Europe have risen just in case.
⠀
Austria's OMV AG warned of potential risks of supply cuts from Russia, which would tighten the European market. TTF index futures added 5.4% yesterday. ICE Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose by almost 6% on the day and reached the highest level since November last year.
⠀
This is a major blow to an already volatile market and could mean that flows on this route will drop even sooner than December 31, 2024.
⠀
Meanwhile, in the US, the Henry Hub came under pressure, down more than 67.6% for the day. This came after the EIA's weekly natural gas storage report showed that natural gas inventories in storage increased by 42 Bcf, compared to expectations of a 39 Bcf increase. This also exceeded the five-year average of 29 Bcf.
⠀
This gap in dynamics is gradually pushing the market towards panic. The market will be actively nervous at least until November 20, because the next payment to Gazprom is not scheduled. Forecasts of colder weather next week gave additional support to prices.
⠀
OMV said it could fulfil supply commitments through alternative sources if supplies from Russia under its long-term contract are hampered.
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In any case, opening new positions in all natural gas-related assets is not recommended for now.
⠀
We will see what happens.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
204
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15 Nov, 11:42

#EURCHF - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 0.9395, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 0.9430.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9365

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 0.9365, we can sell with the target of 0.9330.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9395

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15 Nov, 11:42

#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 100.28, there is an expectation of a price drop down to the range of 99.80.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.60

On the other hand, by breaking the 100.60 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 101.10 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.28

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15 Nov, 11:42

#DAX40 - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 19342, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 19500.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19200

On the other hand, by breaking the 19200 range, we expect the index to drop down to the 19000 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19342

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15 Nov, 11:42

#EURJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the upward trend line in the range of 163.92, there is an expectation of a price drop down to the range of 163.30.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 164.40

On the other hand, by breaking the 164.40 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 165.00 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 163.92

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15 Nov, 11:42

#EURCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the resistance level in the range of 1.4869, the price will grow up to the range of 1.4920.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4820

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.4820 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.4760 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4869

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15 Nov, 11:42

#EURAUD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect the price to grow to the range of 1.6450 by breaking the resistance level in the range of 1.6377.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.6320

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.6320 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.6260 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.6377

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15 Nov, 10:50

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0500 – 2.71 bln
1.0600 – 2.06 bln
1.0700 – 3.70 bln

📊 USD/JPY:
151.00 – 1.49 bln

📊 USD/CNY:
7.2000 – 1.08 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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15 Nov, 10:49

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 US threatens, but China is calm

A block of Chinese statistics came out well - retail sales exceeded forecast for the first time in a long time, signalling the impact of fiscal stimulus, the unemployment rate fell, and industrial production slightly below forecast.

Xi Jinping said China has moved from population growth to population decline and efforts should be made to maintain a moderate birth rate and population.

Nevertheless, the main news driver for the Asian market remains the appointment of hard-line China supporter Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. The move means that Trump's policy toward Beijing could go beyond tariffs and trade. It was Rubio who previously co-sponsored the Uighur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which gave the U.S. government the tool to ban Chinese imports over concerns about violations of Muslim minority rights.

P.S. Donald's new political blunder: Beijing knows how to prioritize effectively and not mix politics with business. This kind of blackmail is no longer effective: the response could be very disadvantageous for the U.S.

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15 Nov, 10:00

​#StockMarket #Bitcoin #Crypto
⠀
🔔 Bitcoin is worth more than $90K: what's next? A few crappy thoughts
⠀
If before the US elections, the forecast of BTC at $80000 looked too optimistic, now it seems that this marathon will not end at $120K either. In a month, the market will start analyzing preliminary trading results for the year, the Fed will make another rate decision, which means that crypto can be traded up and down.
⠀
Crypto withstood Powell's blackmail yesterday, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to restrain the sellers – the BTC has long been in the critical overbought zone. According to the classical theory, there should be a final upward impulse now, after which the price will fall into a deep correction. But it is not happening, and it seems that the market spent all its strength last Wednesday, Sunday and Monday.
⠀
The prerequisites for the pre-New Year season are already in place: now the main volume of BTC on the market is funds, banks and governments, which are unlikely to move the capital to other altcoins when fixing profits. Nevertheless, there are already insider reports that major US banks are sending letters to their clients with headlines "BTC will fall to $80000, sell, hedge, save capital" etc., and the crypto community is strengthening the opinion that both large and ordinary retail volume will run to alcoins and memcoins for quick profits.
⠀
In our opinion, besides the standard SOL, LTC, and XRP, which close every trading day on the plus side, there are a few other popular tokens to check out: DOGWIFHAT (WIF), DOGE (it's a must!), PEPE, GOAT, NEIRO, and a few other smaller tokens. By the way, XRP is reacting to the resignation of Gary Gensler, who caused Ripple so many problems.
⠀
On the one hand, both technical and macroeconomic data should go into correction, but everyone realizes that there are no global problems: the crypto is doing well, and as Trump promises, it will be even better.
⠀
That is, we do not sell BTC yet.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
251
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15 Nov, 09:04

🔡🔡🔡🔡

☄️ Starliners may not fly anywhere

Boeing is exploring the possibility of selling some of its space business to optimize costs, WSJ reported, citing sources. The new head of the company believes that "it is better to do less but well than a lot and badly". Boeing's management is seeking to optimize the business amid the crisis and the threat of new strikes.

The deal may include the problematic spacecraft Starliner and NASA contracts related to the ISS. At the same time, Boeing intends to keep its commercial and military satellite business, as well as continue to oversee the Space Launch System rocket, which it developed on behalf of NASA for future missions to the moon.

Boeing lost more than $6.2 billion in the third quarter. The aircraft maker's stock has fallen 40.5% since the beginning of 2024. However, the Wall Street consensus is $182.33 per share, which implies an 18% increase.

P.S. I wonder who will buy this? Elon Musk and the new State Department D.O.G.E.?

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15 Nov, 09:03

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⚠️ King is leaving, but the war continues

According to Cointelegraph, a coalition of 18 US states has initiated a lawsuit against the SEC. The lawsuit accuses the regulator of "gross abuse of government authority" in its actions against the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry.

The SEC's actions without the legal approval of Congress are interpreted as a serious violation of democracy. The Blockchain Association emphasized the financial burden these enforcement actions have placed on crypto firms. It reports that the total cost to the industry of fighting the SEC's regulatory actions has reached $426 million.

P.S. Gary S. Gensler is retiring just in time, but he will still have to answer the lawsuit.

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15 Nov, 09:02

🔡🔡🔡🔡

📌 Walt Disney: things are improving

Walt Disney (DIS) reported moderately positive Q3 earnings: revenue of $22.6 billion (+6%), EBIT of $0.9 billion (-6%), and EPS of $0.25 (+79%). On the premarket, Entertainment Corporation shares were up 10% at the moment. The market didn't expect the streaming segment to show an increase in profits, even though it was the segment that was recently trying to pull the entire business down. Also, the success of the two movies at the box office increased content and licensing revenue by 39%.

P.S. The major marketing challenges clearly remain. The service's traditional TV channels are struggling, while the Direct-to-Consumer division is not doing well against intense competition. So far, the growth potential at a distance of 4-6 months is estimated at 30-31.5%, but let's see what happens at the end of the year.

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15 Nov, 09:01

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🌐 New fine for META

The European Commission has again penalized Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), this time for a very serious amount of €798 million. The reason is that the company violated competition rules by advertising on Facebook. The company has never been fined with such wording before.

The European Commission considered it a violation that Meta included in the Facebook interface its commercial virtual bulletin board, and Facebook Marketplace. This, according to EU officials, has caused the disadvantage of other commercial classified services.

P.S. Meta has said it intends to appeal. Just this September, the company had to shell out $91 million in compensation to Ireland for password storage violations, so it's worth fighting to get the new fine overturned.

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15 Nov, 09:00

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇨🇳 China chooses African crude

Landbridge Petrochemical, which recently restarted operations after a long hiatus, has purchased 2 million barrels of crude, including Mostarda grade, for delivery in January. The company opted to buy West African crude instead of Iranian and Russian crude because of more favourable delivery terms.
Typically, these refineries would buy Russian ESPO crude and Iranian light crude because these cargoes are cheaper and have shorter delivery routes. However, the high risk of disruption of spot Iranian oil supplies due to concerns about a possible Israeli strike on Tehran's energy infrastructure and new US sanctions are forcing Chinese refineries to look for other options.

P.S. No politics, just business.

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15 Nov, 08:32

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇯🇵 GDP - seasonal (Q3)
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.7% (updated from 0.8%)

🇯🇵 GDP Growth Annualized (Q3)
Actual: 0.9%
Forecast: 0.7%
Previous: %2.2 (updated from %3.1)

🇯🇵 Prelim GDP Price Index - seasonal (Q3)
Actual: 2.5%
Forecast: 2.8%
Previous: %3.2 (updated from %3.0)

Weak GDP growth and rising prices point to serious economic challenges in Japan that may affect monetary policy.

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15 Nov, 08:29

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🔽 Goldman Sachs: The BoC will cut interest rates by 0.5% in December. Interest rate cuts are expected to continue to 2.25% in June 2025, down from 2.50% previously.

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13 Nov, 15:12

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💵 The USD hit a six-and-a-half-month high and the JPY fell to its lowest level since July, driven by expectations for new tax cuts and tariffs under the Trump administration. The market is focused on US inflation data, which may lead to further strengthening of the USD.

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13 Nov, 15:04

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🥇 Gold rose 0.4% to $2607.99/ounce on Wednesday, after hitting a two-month low. The gains were driven by buying as an investment opportunity and a 0.1% drop in the USD index, while the market focused on US inflation data.

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13 Nov, 15:00

​#StockMarket #PDDHoldings #NASDAQ
⠀
👉 Three stocks with stable volatility worthy of your attention
⠀
There is always a category of assets in the market that are minimally affected by politics and other situational force majeure. Here are some popular stocks that are worth investing in right now. The growth potential is defined by the price levels as of 10.11.2024.
⠀
• PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD)
The transnational trading group is growing steadily through its ownership of the fast-growing online marketplace Temu. The company has an excellent financial performance and has been steadily increasing earnings per share since Q1 2023.
Net income has grown nearly 140% in less than two years and has recorded a compound annual revenue growth rate of nearly 75% over 5 years.
Growth potential over 6-12 months: +27-34.5%.

• UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH)
A leading health and wellness company reports strong third-quarter earnings, with EPS of $7.15 (+$0.12 to forecast) and revenue of nearly $101 billion up more than 9% (+$1.52 billion to forecast). The positive momentum is based on efficient cost management, optimal scaling and prudent technology investments.
Growth potential over 6-12 months: 15-22%.

• Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT)
The global retailer (Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club) is looking forward to a period of strong sales volumes that typically finishes on January 31. Q3 performance averaged 7-11% above guidance, but the company has temporary structural issues with Walmart U.S.'s largest division, which operates in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico and separately in Washington. Efforts to keep prices low are expected to help the company remain competitive with Macy's and Kohl's.
Growth potential over 6-12 months: +11-15%.
⠀
Invest wisely and don't take unnecessary risks.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
206
xChief - Global

13 Nov, 14:58

🔡🔡🔡🔡

📊 Monthly and Annual Changes in US CPI - October

Core CPI
- Actual: 0.3%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.3%

CPI
- Actual: 0.2%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- Previous: 0.2%

Core CPI Changes (annual)
- Actual: 3.3%
- Forecast: 3.3%
- Previous: 3.3%

CPI Changes (annual)
- Actual: 2.6%
- Forecast: 2.6%
- Previous: 2.4%

The stability in the numbers indicates relative price control, but a rise in overall annual inflation to 2.6% could raise concerns about future economic trends and the Fed's monetary policies.

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13 Nov, 14:55

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💸 Anthony Scaramucci reassured new BTC investors that it is still a good time to enter the market and that the currency still has more opportunities at $87,268.45. He also hinted at the possibility of the US government creating a "strategic BTC reserve," which could increase global adoption of the currency.

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13 Nov, 12:56

​#StockMarket #OPEC #China

⚡️ Battle of predictions: OPEC has lost again
⠀
The information ping-pong continues: the Cartel has again lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and for 2025. Oil is looking for support in the large options area after OPEC again made a negative decision for the market, and data from China, India, and even Africa once again failed to meet expectations.
⠀
OPEC has finally officially recognized the problems facing the global oil consumer. But this time Beijing is sure to launch consumer incentives to boost domestic demand, and the Alliance has no clear program to combat it.
⠀
Since July, OPEC has lowered its forecasts for oil demand growth this year by nearly 25% amid a sharp drop in prices. However, its forecast is still more optimistic than most banks, Wall Street figures and even Saudi Aramco analysts. Moreover, this forecast is about twice as high as the IEA's expectations.
⠀
OPEC's confidence that China will continue to grow strongly this year is increasingly at odds with analysts who have significantly lowered their estimates for the end of 2024 due to China's weak macroeconomic performance and disappointing fiscal stimulus measures.
⠀
The source of this competitive positivity is unclear: even OPEC's leading members are showing mistrust of the optimistic forecasts of the organization's Vienna-based secretariat. Saudi Arabia-led OPEC and its allies have already twice delayed the resumption of production suspended in 2022. The cartel is now expected to start gradually increasing production early next year. This topic will be discussed at the December 1 meeting, and the probability of a positive decision is quite low.
⠀
So far, the market balance has shifted towards selling, but we are closely watching the fundamental background, the probability of a technical correction of WTI to the 71.50 zone is increasing.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
189
xChief - Global

13 Nov, 11:28

#EURJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 164.79, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 165.50.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 164.30

On the other hand, by breaking the 164.30 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 163.70 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 164.79

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13 Nov, 11:28

#EURCAD - H1

📣 By examining the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 1.4846, the price will grow up to the range of 1.4920.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4780

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.4780 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.4720 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4846

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13 Nov, 11:28

#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 101.38, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 102.00.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.90

On the other hand, by breaking the 100.90 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 100.30 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 101.38

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13 Nov, 11:28

#Dow Jones - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 43661, it is possible to sell with the target of 43200.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 4430

On the other hand, by breaking the 4430 range, we can be optimistic about the growth of the index up to the 44500 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 43661

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13 Nov, 11:28

#SPX500 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 5954, we expect the index to drop down to the range of 5860.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 6000

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 6000, we can buy with a target of 6100.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5954

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13 Nov, 11:28

#DAX40 - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the conversion zone in the range of 19175, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 19450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 18970

On the other hand, by breaking the 18970 range, we expect the index to drop down to the 18700 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19175

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13 Nov, 10:01

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0600 – 1.44 bln
1.0650 – 1.22 bln
1.0700 – 1.32 bln

📊 EUR/GBP:
0.8305 – 776.2 mln
0.8475 – 303.3 mln

📊 USD/CNY:
7.1000 – 1.04 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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13 Nov, 10:00

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🎤 Insiders confirm:

Scott Bessent is likely to become the new US Treasury Secretary, and his main tasks will be:
• reducing the budget deficit, activating deregulation processes and reducing the number of officials at all levels (here we hope for Musk's help);
• dominating the energy sector;
• reprivatization, returning critical infrastructure to state ownership;
• minimizing and robotizing the role of the state at the micro level and strengthening it at the macro level.

Trump has promised to spend more than a trillion dollars on comprehensive reconstruction, but how quickly this will improve the fiscal condition is not yet clear.
Banks' forecasts for CPI inflation are above: the overall sentiment is moderately negative.

P.S. Biden and Trump are scheduled to meet today on the transition of power (without media access). It's tradition: the outgoing president gives advice to the new president 😊. Markets may get Trump's ironic comments on his way out of the White House.

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13 Nov, 09:20

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🔽The pound is falling into the abyss

The British currency is losing positivity against the dollar: the fall is 2% over the past three days and 5% from the moment when the markets turned towards the Trump rally.

The latest stage of the decline is associated with negative macroeconomic data: the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% and in October the number of applications for benefits increased by another 26.6 thousand. The growth rate of regular wages compared to last year fell to 4.8%, reducing pro-inflationary risks. A more depressing situation was only during the period of COVID lockdowns.

A confident fall below 1.2750 will open up the potential for a further decline below 1.2000, despite the accumulated oversold market. And keep in mind that the 1.2000 area is a strong psychological mark: the pound bounced off it more than 10 times from 2017 to 2023, and only managed to break through it twice (in 2022).

P.S. We sell with a short StopLoss and constant monitoring of the information background.

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13 Nov, 09:19

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🎙 Trump's Victory Gives Tesla a Boost

Since the announcement of Donald's friend's victory last week, Tesla's stock has risen 38%, pushing its market value above $1 trillion for the first time in two years. Plus, the company holds nearly 12,000 BTC, so Bitcoin's surge has come in handy.

Tesla is seen as a clear beneficiary of a second Trump term. Tesla hopes to get approval for its fully autonomous driving (FSD) technology. Musk has said the company could launch robotaxi services in Texas and California as early as next year, with the possibility of expanding (with the help of the new president's administration) to other states.

P.S. Musk's net worth has risen more than $300 billion in the latest Tesla rally, and those who didn't believe in the success of the business-politics alliance have already lost about $8 billion in stock sales.P.S.

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13 Nov, 09:18

🔡🔡🔡🔡

📌 Berkshire Hathaway goes into cash

Warren Buffett's fund holds $325 billion in "cash," mostly in Treasury bills. The coolest investor of our time remains cautious about new investments, especially in times of global uncertainty.
Berkshire Hathaway recently sold some of its shares in Apple and BofA and suspended its share repurchases, signalling its conservative stance.

Buffett has traditionally avoided market fluctuations by focusing on long-term investments. Still, he has always built up cash reserves during high stock valuations, such as before the 2008 crisis.

Now analysts at Goldman Sachs and Vanguard are predicting low stock returns (3-5% annualized) over the next 8-10 years, which is well in line with the Buffett Indicator, which shows that U.S. stocks are overvalued by 200% of GDP.

P.S. There is a 99% chance that Buffett will be right again. The stock market will crash and we have time to prepare for it.

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13 Nov, 08:43

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⬇️ Deutsche Bank has cut its forecast for the ECB's final rate to 1.50% from 2.25%, due to factors such as new tariffs from the Trump administration and weaker European macroeconomic performance. The target range is set between 1.00% and 1.75% and various factors will affect the rate.

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13 Nov, 08:34

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🎤 Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to lead the Department of Government Productivity. This new ministry was established in order to increase productivity and reduce government expenses.

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13 Nov, 08:32

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇫🇷 Unemployment Rate in France - Q3

Actual ................... 7.4%
Forecast ............ 7.4%
Previous ................... 7.3%

With the unemployment rate remaining stable at 7.4%, it indicates the relative stability of the French labor market.

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11 Nov, 20:21

#Economic_calendar

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11 Nov, 15:04

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🤑 BTC hits a record high of $82,410 after Donald Trump's victory and is forecasted to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. ETH also reached above $3,200 and more volatility is expected for it.

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11 Nov, 15:03

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🛫 The cryptocurrency market has increased significantly today due to the influx of capital into spot BTC ETFs and Trump's victory in the 2024 election. The total investment has reached $2.77 trillion and the volume of transactions has increased by 75%.

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11 Nov, 14:38

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💸💵 The EUR/USD currency pair is at the level of 1.0655 and due to the high demand for the USD, the downward trend continues. The price is expected to move towards the bottom of the year at 1.0600, and the support and resistance levels are set at 1.0645 and 1.0685, respectively.

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11 Nov, 14:37

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⬇️ Oil prices fell by about 2% on Monday, with Brent crude reaching $73.29 and West Texas Intermediate crude reaching $68.78. China's support programs failed to boost fuel demand, and concerns about an economic slowdown and oil production under the new Trump administration also weighed on the market.

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11 Nov, 12:00

​#worldnews #LNG #Trump
⠀
🔔 LNG under control or a trap for the Donald
⠀
The Biden administration is rushing to complete a project that could make it harder for Trump to fulfil his campaign promises - the construction of new LNG terminals. ClearView Energy Partners is commissioned by the government to study the climate, economic and national security implications of increased fuel exports.
⠀
Biden launched the study in January, just after a moratorium on new LNG export licenses was put in place. The moratorium halted multi-billion dollar export projects by Venture Global LNG Inc, Energy Transfer LP and Commonwealth LNG. Stalled growth in LNG exports and delays in new terminals are the main reasons the U.S. gas market has been flooded and prices have fallen this year. Trump's victory should ensure that fossil fuel production grows and about 20 new export terminals are built.
⠀
Moreover, Trump is well-positioned to pressure allied countries to buy specifically U.S. LNG. But if the study shows that additional exports do more harm than good, or add new conditions, the approval of any LNG-related projects by the new White House administration could be challenged in court. And after all, Donnie promised to lift the Biden moratorium on the first day after his Jan. 20 inauguration.
⠀
The Department of Energy is trying to complete the study this month, but another 60 days of public hearings are needed before a decision on the study is made, so Biden is running out of time.
⠀
P.S. No amount of science or even public projects can stop Trump - too many big business interests are affected. All you can do is get a few lawsuits, which the new government, using the president's personal experience of ignoring laws, may simply not respond to.
⠀
We'll see what happens.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
212
xChief - Global

11 Nov, 11:22

#EURCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the support level in the range of 1.4851, the price will fall to the range of 1.4800.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4920

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.4920 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 1.4970 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4851

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11 Nov, 11:22

#EURCHF - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 0.9358, we expect the price to drop down to the range of 0.9310.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9400

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 0.9400, we can buy with the target of 0.9450.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9358

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11 Nov, 11:22

#GBPCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 1.7924, it is possible to sell with the target of 1.7860.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.7970

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.7970 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 1.8020 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.7924

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11 Nov, 11:22

#DAX40 - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 19533, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 19750.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19380

On the other hand, by breaking the 19380 range, we expect the index to drop down to the 19100 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19533

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11 Nov, 11:22

#Brent crude oil - H1

📣 According to the structure of the chart in the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 72.50, it is possible to sell with the target of 71.30.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 73.40

On the other hand, by breaking the 73.40 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 74.80 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 72.50

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11 Nov, 11:22

#Silver - H1

⛔️ By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 31.70, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 32.50.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 31.00

On the other hand, by breaking the 31.00 range, we can sell with the target of 30.20.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 31.70

🌟🌟🌟🌟
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11 Nov, 11:04

Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0900 – 934.2 mln
1.1050 – 1.30 bln
1.1100 – 1.59 bln

📊 GBP/USD:
1.3025 – 379.2 mln

📊 USD/CAD:
1.3740 – 1.31 bln
1.4065 – 1.37 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

🌟🌟🌟🌟
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11 Nov, 11:03

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇬🇧 Britain profits from Trump's victory

Investors are buying up the British pound as insurance against the turmoil of a Trump presidency. Tough BOE comments and the political situation in the US and Germany have suddenly turned the British currency into a safe haven.

The publication of the UK's big-spending budget added to the selling pressure on GBP. Now the political risk premium in GBP has decreased again, as the service-oriented UK economy may be much less affected by the aggressive policy of the new president. Signals in the options market also point to further GBP growth.

P.S. Technical analysis does not yet give a strong buy signal, but over the medium term, the fundamentals can be trusted.

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11 Nov, 11:02

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🔥 Things are stable in Asia

• The WSJ reports that Beijing is developing a strategy of incentives for Europe and Asia while raising US duties on Chinese goods/ The goal is to leave Trump without allies in his anti-China policy. Proposed: lower duties, visa-free travel, Chinese investment and other measures. Also, economists are confident that China will be extremely cautious in using the previously announced economic stimulus next year.
• The BOJ minutes showed that the regulator considers it necessary to be cautious when raising the rate, and does not give any hints on further actions until the end of this year.

P.S. Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected as Prime Minister of Japan.

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11 Nov, 11:01

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💰 Bitcoin updates the maximum

BTC for the first time fixed the price above $81 thousand. We see all the signs of a large-scale bullish trend. All altcoins are growing, and there are no serious reasons to stop yet.

Growth factors:
• The US economy is doing very well (according to official statistics).
• Trump does not intend to raise the corporate income tax (now - 21%).
• Corporations accumulate capital for buyback, which provokes further growth.
• The course for lowering the Fed rates.

Factors for the fall:
• US inflation.
• Trump's foreign policy (future).
• China's economy (current).
• Conflicts in US domestic politics.
• "Black Swan" (during Trump's previous term - COVID, now - geopolitical conflicts).

P.S. Which side of the crypto are you on? Are you selling or buying?

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11 Nov, 11:01

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⚠️ Panic in the gas market

Monday morning the U.S. market was nervous due to Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico - the price rose sharply by 6%.

Since the beginning of the year, this is the first hurricane that has noticeably affected hydrocarbon production: evacuation of personnel from platforms and shutdown of production will lead, according to Reuters, to the loss of about 25% of oil production and 16% of gas production in the Gulf.

But these percentages look so "scary" only at the local level. In absolute terms, about 1.12 billion cubic feet of gas has been lost - about 1% of national daily production.

Probably about the same amount will be lost in the next few days, but we should not talk about the formation of a new bullish trend yet. A rise in gas prices is possible only because of a systemic decline in production due to low prices and rising consumption.

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08 Nov, 15:01

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💵 Citibank advises investors to buy the USD tactically during dips following Donald Trump's victory. The bank expects the USD to strengthen against the euro and Scandinavian currencies, pointing to a potential decline in currencies such as the Chinese yuan and the Thai baht. It also predicts that a "red wave" in the election could lead to a 5% increase in the USD.

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08 Nov, 15:00

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇨🇦 Unemployment Rate and Employment Change in Canada (October)

- Unemployment Rate: 
  - Actual: 6.5% 
  - Forecast: 6.6% 
  - Previous: 6.5% 

- Employment Change: 
  - Actual: 14.5K 
  - Forecast: 25K 
  - Previous: 46.7K 

- Participation Rate: 
  - Actual: 64.8% 
  - Previous: 64.9% 

- Full-time employment: 25.6K (previously: 112K) 
- Part-time employment: -11.2K (previous: -65.3K)

Analysis of the Canadian labor market indicates a slowdown in economic growth, which could indicate increased concerns about the state of the economy and its effects on the central bank's policy decisions.

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08 Nov, 14:46

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💸 Eurozone Retail Sales - September

- Retail Sales (monthly): 
  - Actual: 1.2% 
  - Forecast: 0.2% 
  - Previous: -0.5% 

- Retail Sales (annual): 
  - Actual: 0.7% 
  - Previous: 0.8%

The significant increase of 1.2% in monthly retail sales in the Eurozone indicates an improvement in demand and consumer confidence, which could be a sign of economic stability in the face of ongoing challenges.

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08 Nov, 13:52

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0800 – 1.15 bln
1.0885 – 1.02 bln
1.1100 – 934.1 mln

📊 USD/JPY:
145.00 – 1.13 bln

📊 EUR/GBP:
0.8250 – 350 mln
0.8350 – 654.3 mln

📊 USD/CNY:
6.8300 – 2.97 bln
7.2000 – 1.32 bln
7.2050 – 1.24 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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08 Nov, 13:51

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🌐 Profit on betting against the sun

Trump's victory brought hedge funds more than $1.2 billion in profits on trades against renewable energy. The massive sell-off sent shares of green energy companies lower due to fears that Donnie would eliminate subsidies and tax breaks from Biden's IRA program.

Trump has promised to halt wind energy development in the US since "day one" of his presidency.
Short positions were opened on companies such as Norwegian hydrogen producer Nel (-13%) and German wind turbine maker Nordex (-8%).

Hydrogen producer Plug Power and solar energy developer Sunrun, which were actively shorted by hedge funds, lost 22% and 30% of their value, respectively.

P.S. Betting on "clean energy" is still relevant, you just need to change direction.

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08 Nov, 13:50

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⚡️ BOJ ready to save the yen

Already in December, the Japanese Ministry of Finance is ready to conduct another currency intervention to prevent the yen from falling to 30-year lows. Despite the BOJ rate hike, USD/JPY has added about 9% again in the last two months.

While a weak yen stimulates exports, it has also led to higher fuel and food import costs, i.e. hitting the consumer. It was the rise in inflation that was seen as the main factor behind voters' massive distrust of the ruling coalition in last month's general election.

There is a view that pressure on the yen may ease under Trump, as the president's economic program suggests a global weakening of the dollar. But most analysts (and we agree with them!) think this is impossible because a weaker dollar would be pro-inflationary for the US.

Yesterday, Atsushi Mimura, vice president of the Japanese Ministry of Finance for the foreign exchange market, promised that the government is ready to take measures to limit the exchange rate, which caused new speculations on this topic.

P.S. When the price will be Y160 zone - we are waiting for intervention.

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08 Nov, 12:49

​#StockMarket #China #DonaldTrump
⠀
🇨🇳 Generous China: $1.4 trillion for the economy
⠀
Beijing is clearly preparing for increased trade tensions with the US under Donald Trump. The new economic stimulus package has been increased to 10 trillion yuan (about $1.4 trillion). The highlight of this fiscal package remains the issuance of new bonds worth 6 trillion yuan over three years to cover budget debts.
⠀
There are also plans to reallocate an additional ¥4 trillion of previously planned bonds over five years to restructure financial resources.
⠀
The fiscal debt reform measures, which came after the announcement of a major monetary stimulus in September, were expected even before Trump's victory and his threats of a 60% duty on Chinese goods. So the current decision was quite reasonable.
⠀
Although additional measures to stimulate domestic demand have not been announced, the move has already caused disappointment in markets that had hoped the package would also help consumers. The yuan lost more than 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar.
⠀
Beijing will announce additional support for the economy once Trump's action plan becomes more transparent. The government also accelerated planned bond issuance to cover fiscal spending that had been on hold for a year.
⠀
Analysts warn that if Trump's tariffs are fully implemented without retaliation from China, they could reduce the country's GDP by several percentage points at a time when the economy is extremely vulnerable. So anyone interested in dealing in Asian assets needs to be very careful. The ricochet of China's problems will hit the entire Asian market.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
305
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08 Nov, 12:29

#EURNZD - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the conversion zone in the range of 1.8000, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 1.8100.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.7910

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 1.7910, we can sell with the target of 1.7800.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.8000

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08 Nov, 12:29

#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the upward trend line in the range of 100.76, there is an expectation of a price drop down to the range of 100.10.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 101.30

On the other hand, by breaking the 101.30 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 101.85 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.76

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08 Nov, 12:29

#Dow Jones - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 43661, it is possible to sell with the target of 43270.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 43920

On the other hand, by breaking the 43920 range, we expect the index to grow up to the 44300 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 43661

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08 Nov, 12:29

#Gas - H1

📣 By examining the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the top of the compression pattern in the range of 2.760, the price will grow up to the range of 2.930.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.630

On the other hand, by breaking the 2.630 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 2.470 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2.760

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08 Nov, 12:29

#EURCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect the price to grow up to the range of 1.5070 by breaking the resistance level in the range of 1.5007.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.4950

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.4950 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.4890 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.5007

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08 Nov, 12:29

#EURAUD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the conversion zone in the range of 1.6293, the price will grow up to the range of 1.6370.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.6230

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.6230 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.6170 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.6293

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08 Nov, 12:09

Sony launched its upgraded PlayStation 5 Pro

Bonus 500 $  https://go.xchief.com/t3k

#PlayStation #playstation5 #Sony #SONYPlayStation #sonyplaystation5 #sonyplaystation4 https://go.xchief.com/t3k
220
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08 Nov, 09:42

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🪙 Argentina hopes and asks for money

Javier Milei made a big bet on Trump's victory and became a winner. Back in February, when he first met The Donald, the Argentine leader did not miss a chance to call him a "great president" and wish him re-election.

Amid nervous officials around the world, Argentines see Trump's victory as a positive for their economy. Investors think so too, with Argentina's dollar bonds jumping in early trading Wednesday and the country's risk index falling sharply. The prospect of closer ties with the U.S. is encouraging, at least short-term.

Milei is hopeful that Trump will be able to reconcile Argentina with the IMF, as the country wants a new deal to replace the record $44 billion program currently in place. The Argentine leader is also getting closer to Musk - the two have met at least three times this year, and the billionaire has already said his companies are looking for ways to invest in Argentina.

P.S. The fact that Milei is nicknamed "El Loco" in Argentina inspires confidence that he and Trump will find common interests.

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08 Nov, 09:41

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⬇️ Commodities are getting cheaper after Trump's victory

The new policy should lead to a decline in global oil prices, as the newly elected Trump is demanding a reduction in regulation of the sector in the US and an increase in production.

The price of most commodity group assets is falling due to threats of a new trade war.
Alas, US oil production has already reached record levels. Companies are afraid to increase volumes, especially if it will lead to further price decline.

At the same time, a possible tightening of sanctions against Iran could complicate exports of Iranian crude.

The outlook for industrial metals looks bleaker, given the heavy reliance on China, the world's largest buyer of copper and iron ore.

LNG is another commodity that also has a pessimistic outlook, given its support for Trump's support for expanding U.S. production and building new export plants.

P.S. It will be extremely dangerous to sell anytime soon.

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08 Nov, 09:40

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🪙 1,000,000 BTC: Fort Knox's new "gold"

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis announced plans for the government to purchase 200,000 BTC per year for 5 years, bringing the U.S. strategic crypto reserve to one million coins (approximately $76 billion at current prices).

The U.S. Treasury Department will be able to manage this reserve, with coins purchased by the Fed through diversified funds. In such a scenario, bitcoin could bypass almost all regulatory hurdles.

This may break the official U.S. fiscal strategy and the system of guarantees in international settlements, but still will not improve the situation with the huge national debt. And even the new Congress, which is completely loyal to Trump, is unlikely to allow such a risk.

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08 Nov, 09:10

​#StockMarket #Fed #Powell
⠀
🔔 Fed: it's going to be okay, but so far so bad
⠀
The rate decision was okay, but no clear signals about the future were sounded. The press release was a bit tinier, the rhetoric was a bit softer, no new forecasts, and Powell looked nervous. The market reaction was weak: UST 10 yields fell 0.04 p.p., S&P 500 rose 0.25%, gold rose 0.4%, and the dollar fell 0.1%.
⠀
At the press conference, the Fed chief failed to explain why the phrase about confident movement toward 2% inflation disappeared from the final document. Has the target changed? Most likely it means that core inflation has accelerated, so there is no more confidence.
⠀
Powell acknowledged that price growth was a bit higher than the Fed had expected, but also repeated that the Fed is on track to ease rates, but the speed of the rate cut is unknown. That is, whether the regulator will risk to cut the rate in December is still unclear.
⠀
As usual, everything will depend on the data. Jay said that the economy is strong, but the labor market is cooling, and the Fed is not satisfied with this, as he hopes to achieve the inflation target without harming the labor market. But there are no details on how to do that.
⠀
Recall: the Fed has not yet factored in Trump's promised policy in any way, only earlier measures. At the time of the December meeting, this situation persists. In general, Powell agreed that fiscal policy affects monetary policy, but to determine its impact you need to see the bills, put all the numbers into a real model, and get the effect, and now there is simply nothing to discuss.
⠀
Nevertheless, if there are no legislative restrictions on raising import duties, future Fed policy may adjust toward more tightness.
⠀
P.S. Powell has said he has no intention of leaving office, even if Trump asks him to. He believes that by law, the president cannot remove the head of the Fed. In fact, Trump can do anything, so it is not profitable to quarrel with him yet.
⠀
From here on, we work as if this Fed meeting never happened. With the end of the year ahead, we all have a lot to do.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
270
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08 Nov, 08:52

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💰 Gold prices hit $2,695.93 in Asian trading, influenced by the Fed's interest rate cut and Donald Trump's victory. Despite the USD's decline, gold is on track to lose about 1.6% this week on inflation expectations and rising Treasury yields.

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08 Nov, 08:49

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💴🤑 JP Morgan has forecasted that BTC will rise over the next eight weeks, attributing the growth to "Trump trade." The bank believes that Trump's policies until 2025 will benefit BTC and gold, and both will act as a hedge against weakening currencies and geopolitical risks.

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31 Oct, 15:35

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 Chicago PMI 

Actual .................... 41.6
Forecast ............. 46.9 
Previous .................... 46.6 


A sharp decline in the Chicago PMI indicates a significant weakness in economic and manufacturing activities, which could be a sign of a recession in the industrial sector. This situation may cause concern about the economic outlook and pressure on monetary policies.

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31 Oct, 15:33

🔡🔡🔡🔡

👷 Employment Cost Index:
- Actual: 0.8% 
- Forecast: 0.9% 
- Previous: 0.9% 

Unemployment Claims:
- Actual: 216K 
- Forecast: 229K 
- Previous: 228K 

An improvement in labor market conditions, especially a reduction in unemployment, could lead to an increase in interest rates, as increased demand may intensify inflationary pressures. The Fed may raise interest rates to control inflation.

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31 Oct, 15:30

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 US Core PCE Index (monthly):
- Forecast:
- 0.3% (previous forecast: 0.3%, earlier forecast: 0.2%)

The rise in PCE indicates continued inflationary pressures in the US. This issue could intensify the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Fed, which may have a negative impact on economic growth and financial markets.

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31 Oct, 15:27

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇨🇦 GDP in Canada (monthly):
- Forecast:
  - 0.0% (previous forecast: 0.0%, earlier forecast: 0.1%)

Description:
The stability in GDP (0.0%) indicates no change in Canadian economic activity this month and can be attributed to economic uncertainties or weakness in growth.

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31 Oct, 13:20

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 US GDP: not bad, but mixed

GDP came in 0.1% below expectations, but it is still moving at a normal pace (+2.8%).

Personal Consumption grew strongly (3.7%, the forecast was 3.3%), i.e. people have money and are actively spending it. Core PCE rose by 2.2% against the expected 2.1%.

These indicators speak in favor of rising inflation. So today's statistics are interpreted very subjectively: GDP data is interpreted in favor of the Fed rate hike, while the other two indicators are against such a decision.

Stock indices are still taking the data neutrally and reacting only to the reports.

P.S. The next trigger is tomorrow's Core PCE Price Index data. Again, if insiders have the info, the reaction to this data could be earlier. Stay tuned!

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31 Oct, 13:20

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🪙 U.S. Treasury Department is concerned ...

Officials are nervous about the rise of the stackcoin market and believe that privately issued tokens should be replaced by the Federal Reserve's official digital currency (FDIC) as soon as possible.
The U.S. Treasury Department is concerned that a significant amount of U.S. Treasury securities have been bought up by stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle.

$120 billion worth of US Treasuries have been purchased as collateral for revenue-generating stablecoins, most of that amount (nearly $81 billion) was bought by Tether, the issuer of the crypto market leader –token USDT.

This situation could lead to disaster if Treasury bills become increasingly integrated with the stablecoin industry.

P.S. By the way, USDT is a great chance to reduce the U.S. national debt, if you outlaw all those who bought treasuries for crypto. What do you think?

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31 Oct, 12:40

#Silver - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the support level in the range of 33.08, there is an expectation of a price drop down to the range of 32.10.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 33.85

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 33.85, we can buy with the target of 34.70.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 33.08

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31 Oct, 12:40

#EURCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that with the breaking of the upward trend line in the range of 1.5108, the price will fall to the range of 1.5060.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.5135

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.5135 range, we can be optimistic about the price growth up to the 1.5180 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.5108

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31 Oct, 12:40

#AUDCAD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 0.9158, we can buy with the target of 0.9210.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9120

On the other hand, by breaking the 0.9120 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 0.9080 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.9158

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31 Oct, 12:40

#DAX40 - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 19218, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 19400.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19100

On the other hand, by breaking the 19100 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 18900 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 19218

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31 Oct, 12:40

#SPX500 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the conversion zone in the range of 5800, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 5850.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5770

On the other hand, by breaking the 5770 range, we can sell with the target of 5720.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5800

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31 Oct, 12:40

#Dow Jones - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the conversion zone in the range of 42169, we can buy with the target of 42500.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 41940

On the other hand, by breaking the 41940 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 41600 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 42169

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31 Oct, 12:00

​#StockMarket #Samsung #AI
⠀
🔔 How Samsung's AI punished
⠀
The $122 billion loss demonstrates the "cost" of not paying enough attention to AI. Samsung has become a prime example of how quickly fortunes can change in an industry where the spoils go to those who maintain a technological advantage.
⠀
Consumer electronics still make up the bulk of sales, but in the last couple of years, it's been semiconductors that have maximized profits. Samsung Electronics Co. (LSE: SMSN) shares were near an all-time high just a few months ago, but have already lost more than 32% due to inattention to new technologies and management problems.
⠀
The company was forced to apologize to investors for the weak business results, an unprecedented fact for the Korean mindset.
⠀
Samsung promised to regain competitiveness, but in early October it admitted problems with the release of its latest-generation HBM chips. And that's while SK Hynix said it has begun mass production and U.S. rival Micron Technology Inc. is also ramping up efforts in HBM and reporting strong demand for its offerings.
⠀
Large funds such as Pictet Asset Management Ltd. and Janus Henderson Investors SP Ltd. as well as smaller overseas investors sold about $10.7 billion worth of Samsung shares.
⠀
Samsung is losing its leadership in the semiconductor business and will not regain it anytime soon. In addition to lagging in AI memory, the company has been engaged in a costly war with TSMC in the foundry business for several years. Like Intel Corp. which is experiencing similar difficulties in expanding outsourcing of chip manufacturing, Samsung is now moving to cut jobs and other unpopular measures.
⠀
Samsung is holding a conference call today following the release of its third-quarter earnings reports. The company will have to regain investor confidence, which may not return even as the market drives the stock price to its highest level.
⠀
We do not welcome such buying yet.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
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31 Oct, 11:38

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💵 US giants fall, but the dollar doesn't care

Investors are upset with BigTech reports:
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)
• Revenue $65.6 billion (+16%)
• Operating income $30.6 billion (+14%)
• EPS $3.30 (+10%).

It was a good report, but the stock dropped almost 4% after its release: the revenue forecast didn't impress big investors.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META):
• Revenue $40.58 billion (+19%)
• Operating income $17.35 billion (+26%)
• EPS $6.03 (+37%)

It's also a good report, but the stock is down more than 3% after publication. Likely worse-than-expected user growth and higher-than-forecast AI spending.

The DXY has been hanging around the 104 zone for a second day due to hopes of swift and powerful Fed easing. The hopes have become less, but the dollar is still not falling.

P.S. Today after the close we are waiting for Amazon and Apple, but given the slowdown in the real sector, the reaction to their reports will be similar.

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31 Oct, 11:38

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🪙 BYD overtakes Tesla in quarterly revenue

Chinese electric car maker BYD grew revenue in 3Q 2024 by 24% YoY to 201.1 bln yuan ($28.15 bln), with net profit up 11.5%.

The company maintained strong sales momentum, helped by government incentives to exchange old cars. Local governments in China are also giving electric car buyers up to 20,000 yuan as additional subsidies under programs that expire by the end of the year.

P.S. Tesla's revenue for the same quarter was $25.2 billion, BYD's first clear win. How are you sleeping, Elon Musk?

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31 Oct, 10:41

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0800 – 1.87 bln
1.0900 – 1.65 bln
1.0925 – 1.51 bln

📊 USD/JPY:
150.00 – 1.88 bln
152.00 – 1.37 bln
153.50 – 1.36 bln

📊 GBP/USD:
1.2900 – 429.3 bln
1.3000 – 369.8 bln
1.3260 – 537.4 bln

📊 USD/CNY:
7.05 – 1.04 bln
7.20 – 1.04 bln
7.25 – 2.08 bln

📊 EUR/GBP:
0.8300 – 1.04 bln
0.8350 – 842.2 mln
0.9125 – 944.5 mln

📊 USD/BRL:
5.30 – 2.1 bln
5.50 – 1.71 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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31 Oct, 09:00

​#worldnews #Trump #Harris
⠀
👉 Trump vs. Harris: Don’t Mix Politics and Investments
⠀
The idea that markets have accepted a Trump victory is incorrect. While speculators try to extract as much money as possible from predictions, most investors don’t see much difference between the candidates and are not taking big risks. This only strengthens the potential for movement once the results are announced.
⠀
Let’s not forget that there are also elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives. The latest estimates suggest equal chances for the main candidates. The Senate is expected to be under Republican control (69% probability) and the House is under Democratic control (56% probability). The most impactful market outcome would be a consolidation of power by one party; otherwise, the new president will constantly need to seek compromises and lose momentum.
⠀
The stock market outlook is positive, but in previous elections, indices corrected more sharply than they are now, so the bullish momentum may be weaker. While reaching new highs is reasonable, a 10-15% increase, as promised by Trump, is unlikely.
⠀
Regardless of who wins, investors are focusing more on the dynamics of the budget deficit. Falling bond prices (rising yields) and a flight to the dollar and gold may reflect concerns about new tax breaks that lack solid guarantees.
⠀
Candidates are avoiding this unfavorable topic but they will certainly return to it right after their victory speech. There is market potential here for at least two weeks, though volatility usually peaks within the first few hours after polls close. However, markets will likely pick a winner before the official result is announced.
⠀
Recall: politics should have minimal impact on your investments. A balanced investment portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds will preserve your capital under any president. We’ll set new targets after November 5.
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Profits to y’all!
227
xChief - Global

31 Oct, 08:53

🔡🔡🔡🔡

✍️ BoJ's Ueda:

- Japan's economic growth is improving and will continue to be above potential.
- Uncertainty in the economy and inflation is still high.
- Inflation is expected to be lower for 2025 due to oil prices.
- The effect of currency on prices has increased and companies tend to increase wages.
- Policy adjustment is done if the economic and inflation outlook is realized.
- Future reviews will be published at the December meeting; There is no set time for interest rate hikes.

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xChief - Global

31 Oct, 08:45

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇦🇺 Australian Economic Data - September 2024

Retail Sales (monthly):
- Actual: 0.1%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: 0.7%

Building Permits (monthly):
- Actual: 4.4%
- Forecast: 2.2%
- Previous: -3.9% (updated from -6.1%)



Weakness in retail sales raises concerns about economic growth, while an increase in building permits could help boosting the market and economic growth.

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xChief - Global

31 Oct, 08:41

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇯🇵 Japan Economic Data - September 2024

Retail Trade:
- Actual: 0.5%
- Forecast: 2.1%
- Previous: 3.1% (updated from 2.8%)

Industrial Production:
- Actual: 1.4%
- Forecast: 0.9%
- Previous: -3.3%


The decline in retail sales reflects weak demand and concerns about economic growth, which is likely to weaken the Yen. On the other hand, the growth of industrial production can contribute to the relative improvement.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 15:05

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🗽 UoM Consumer Sentiment:
- Actual: 70.5

- Forecast: 69.2
- Previous: 68.9

⬆️ The increase in this index indicates an improvement in consumer confidence and can be a sign of strengthening demand and improving economic conditions.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 15:01

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇺🇸 US Durable Goods Orders Data

Core Durable Goods Orders:
- Actual: 0.4%
- Forecast: -0.1%
- Previous: 0.6%

Durable Goods Orders:
- Actual: -0.8%
- Forecast: -1.1%
- Previous: -0.8%

⬇️ The decrease in the overall orders of durable goods and the increase in the main orders show the instability of demand and the negative effect of interest rates on production.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 14:56

🔡🔡🔡🔡

💰 The chance for the price of BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year is very low, while the chance of rising to $82,000 is more. The US election in November could have a big impact on the price of BTC, so investors should be prepared for volatility.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 14:50

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇩🇪 German Economic Data (October)

1. IFO - Business Climate
- Actual: 86.5 
- Forecast: 85.6 
- Previous: 85.4 

2. IFO - Current Assessment
- Actual: 85.7 
- Forecast: 84.4 
- Previous: 84.4 

3. IFO - Expectations
- Actual: 87.3 
- Forecast: 86.8 
- Previous: 86.3 

📈 The improvement of this indeces indicates an increase in business confidence and the potential for positive economic growth in the future.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 14:04

​#StockMarket #Britain #BOE
⠀
🇬🇧 Britain is unstable but hopes for the best
⠀
The pound is trying to grow against the dollar despite the failing PMI indices, which were expected to at least maintain previous levels. Business activity growth in Britain in October posted its lowest since the start of the year as gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the budget announcement spooked businesses and forced spending cuts.
⠀
Almost all the data is worse than forecast, but the economy remains above the 50-point recession level and all indices remain bullish, while Europe's manufacturing sector has been signaling contraction for many months.
⠀
Companies are waiting for clarity on government policy – conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the US election, are adding to nervousness about the economic outlook.
⠀
Encouragingly, a further drop in input cost inflation to its lowest level in four years opens up the BOE to take a more aggressive stance on rate cuts if the current slowdown becomes more sustainable.
⠀
Statistics state that Britain's GDP grew at a minimal rate of 0.1%, implying a broad-based slowdown in business activity, spending, and demand in both industry and services. As a result, the loss of business confidence in a stable future has led to another reduction ("optimization") of staff – for the first time since the beginning of the year.
⠀
Of course, politics is weighing on British equanimity: Labour is too clearly playing in favor of Harris, which means that if Trump wins, London should not expect even a minimal partnership.
⠀
We wait for the budget data (October 30). Yesterday GBP/USD corrected slightly upwards but failed to overcome the downtrend line, besides, selling is supported by large options at the close of the week. So, we are in no hurry to buy the pound.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
217
xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#Dow Jones - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 42591, we can buy with the target of 42930.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 42300

On the other hand, by breaking the 42300 range, we expect the index to drop down to the 42000 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 42591

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#ETHUSD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, we expect that by breaking the resistance level in the range of 2575, the price will grow up to the range of 2650.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2520

On the other hand, by breaking the 2520 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 2460 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 2575

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#SPX500 - H1

📣 By looking at the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 5849, we expect the index to grow up to the range of 5900.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5810

On the other hand, by breaking the 5810 range, we can sell with the target of 5750.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 5849

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#GBPUSD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 1.3000, we can buy with the target of 1.3050.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.2950

On the other hand, by breaking the 1.2950 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 1.2900 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.3000

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#AUDJPY - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the downward trend line in the range of 100.86, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 101.50.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.45

On the other hand, by breaking the 100.45 range, we expect the price to drop down to the 100.00 range.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 100.86

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389
xChief - Global

25 Oct, 12:19

#EURUSD - H1

📣 By checking the 1-hour timeframe, by breaking the resistance level in the range of 1.0848, there is an expectation of a price growth up to the range of 1.0890.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.0810

On the other hand, by breaking the range of 1.0810, we can sell with a target of 1.0760.

⛔️ Stop Loss: 1.0848

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 11:57

💱 Major options with expiry today:

📊 EUR/USD:
1.0800 – 1.06 bln
1.0820 – 1.03 bln
1.0885 – 704.2 mln

📊 USD/JPY:
144.50 – 1.5 bln
146.50 – 1.5 bln

📊 GBP/USD:
1.2775 – 309.6 mln
1.3100 – 302.3 mln

📊 AUD/USD:
0.6870 – 1.32 bln

📊 USD/CAD:
1.3455 – 1.28 bln
1.3855 – 1.18 bln

P.S. Be careful when the price moves to these zones!

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 11:57

🔡🔡🔡🔡

⚡️ Nikkei analysts:

– The risk of defeat for Japan's ruling party in the Oct. 27 election is extremely high, with the LDP likely to lose its majority in the lower house of parliament.

P.S. If there will be a new government, the attitude to monetary policy will be more critical, and since BOJ does not have even formal independence, a strong reaction on yen can be expected already at the opening of the trading week.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 11:57

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🪙 The yen takes a pause

Inflation in Tokyo fell: overall to 1.8% (last year 2.2%) and the same core 1.8% vs. 2.0%.
Ueda, BOJ head:
– When analyzing the implications of a weak yen on inflation, we must take external factors into account. The recent drop is partly due to optimism about the US economic outlook, but we must see if this dynamic is sustainable.

That is, there will be no rate hike at the October 31 meeting.

P.S. The catastrophe in this "optimism" may come as early as November 5. Still, it will happen after January 25 in the form of US GDP and NFP revisions after the inauguration of the new president.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 11:08

​#worldnews #TruthSocial #Trump
⠀
⚡️ Truth Social: the owner is quite pleased
⠀
Shares of social media platform Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT) hit a fresh high on Tuesday as both domestic and foreign markets shifted bets in favor of Trump's election victory. Other stocks related to the former president moved in sync with DJT.
⠀
• Phunware (PHUN), which develops mobile advertising software, added another 20% after rising more than 40% in Tuesday's session.
• Video platform Rumble (RUM) also went up 12% but has slowed for the moment.
⠀
Recall: Trump founded Truth Social after he was removed from social media platforms Facebook and Twitter over the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots. Now, thanks to his new friend Elon Musk, The Donald is officially back on the X platform's chat rooms.
⠀
Trump Media went public on the Nasdaq exchange in late March after merging with special purpose company Digital World Acquisition Corp. The company's fundamentals are critically negative. DJT's Q2 report showed a net loss of $16.4 mln, 50% of which came from expenses related to the SPAC deal. The company's revenue totaled just under $837k (-30% vs. last year).
⠀
At current price levels in the $35 zone, the company's market value is about $7.1 billion, meaning Trump's 60% stake gives him about $4.3 bln (-0.2 bln since going public).
⠀
In September, Truth Social's COO resigned due to a personal conflict with Trump. Interested parties (and Donald too!), were subjected to a six-month lockup period before they could sell or transfer shares. The lockout period expired on September 19, and Trump immediately stated that he had no intention of selling his stake: "I love it. I'm using it as a way to get my words out."
⠀
P.S. So right now, for Donnie, the "opportunity to speak" is more valuable than money? Alas, the market does not understand such an argument, so the prospects of Trump Media are very dim.
⠀
Profits to y’all!
372
xChief - Global

25 Oct, 09:02

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🎙 UBS predicts more volatility in the stock market leading up to the election due to higher yields, lower expectations for a Fed rate cut, geopolitical concerns and election uncertainty.

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25 Oct, 08:34

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇫🇷 French Consumer Confidence - October 2024

Actual ............. 94
Forecast ............ 94
Previous .................... 95

The decrease of this index can indicate the weakening of public trust and the possibility of reducing household expenses.

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xChief - Global

25 Oct, 08:23

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 UK Consumer Confidence Index - October

Actual: -21
Forecast: -20
Previous: -20


🚨 A decrease in this index indicates a serious concern about the economic situation and inflation, which may negatively affect consumption and economic growth.

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25 Oct, 08:21

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🗼Tokyo Core CPI (October)

Actual: 1.8%
Forecast: 1.7%
Previous: 2.0%


🗼Tokyo CPI (October)

Actual: 1.8%
Previous: 2.2%

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25 Oct, 08:04

🔡🔡🔡🔡

🇸🇦 Neom: Saudi Arabia opens the city of the future

A few days before the Future Investment Initiative conference, the Arab equivalent of Davos, specially selected guests were invited to visit the island of Sindala, the first site of the Neom AI project. The idea, with a minimum budget of $1 trillion, is supposed to prove that the Kingdom has a future beyond the world of oil.

The city was supposed to have an initial public offering by 2020 and open the main project by 2025, but the level of spending exceeds even the resources of the global oil monster.

Only 80% of the budget has been approved for 2024, and to make up for the shortfall, Neom had hoped to attract Saudi investors by issuing its first Islamic bonds. But that move has also been delayed as the company has yet to prepare its 2023 accounts. External investors are also in no hurry to pour money into building Eden in the desert.

P.S. WOW effect for the domestic and international audience is guaranteed, but will the current generation see the real Neom?

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