TradingShot Global Channel

ELI LILLY has at least +50% upside from here.

Eli Lilly (LLY) has been trading within a 5-year Channel Up and last week closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 06 2023. Despite the bearish pressure of this Bearish Leg since July 15 2024, that last 1W MA50 closing was the previous Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.

The 1W RSI is on a similar level (just below 40.00) with all previous 4 major bottoms and the common characteristic of all was that the stock broke below the 1W MA50 but managed to keep clear and hold the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), practically the most important Support level of the market.

If you want a confirmed buy entry, you might want to wait for yet another Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD (as it happened on all previous bottoms), otherwise this buy opportunity is good to go for at least +58% from the bottom (minimum rise among those 4 Bullish Legs). Our Target is $1135.

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USDCAD top of Channel Up rejection. Strong sell.

The USDCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low and on Monday it hit its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and got rejected. This is a similar peak to November 01 2023, with the 1D RSI turning downwards as well on an early sell signal.

Initially, we expect at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested, so our Target is 1.37300.

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BITCOIN rally cant get caught anymore and SPXRUT ratio shows why

It's beyond doubt now that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the new Parabolic Rally (PR), technically the most aggressive phase of the Bull Cycle. We've made numerous analyses in the past explaining on time why we expected this break-out to take place after 7 months of accumulation.

What we bring to you today is the SPX/RUT ratio, the correlation of the S&P500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) indices against BTC and how it confirms that this rally will now accelerate to a pace that it won't be easy to get caught (i.e. bought).

The SPX/RUT ratio is displayed by the blue trend-line. The ratio is particularly helpful during Bitcoin's Parabolic Rally phase as their correlation is mostly a negative one, meaning when the ratio falls, Bitcoin rises. On this chart, this correlation is present on a cyclical basis. This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common.

The key characteristic here is the Lower Highs pattern that the ratio forms every Cycle around the Halving time. As you can see, when SPX/RUT peaks (red circle) and starts forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin stars its Parabolic Rally (green arc). On the 1st Lower High, BTC's rally is already underway and has entered the stage where due to the sheer buying pressure and aggression, getting an entry is difficult. The Lower Highs on SPX/RUT also signify a shift from big capitalization stocks to low, i.e. an increasing appetite for riskier assets and that transcends to the Bitcoin market as well.

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GBPJPY First 1D Golden Cross after 19 months. Strong BUY.

The GBPJPY pair is forming today a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such pattern in exactly 19 months (April 21 2023). Naturally this is a huge bullish signal alone, as technically the Golden Cross calls for upside action. But more specifically for this pair's price action, it indicates the high probability of an immediate aggressive push as the current formation is very similar to the April 2023 one.

As you can see, both were trading within a Channel Up up to the moment of the Golden Cross, having started after a 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test. The 1D CCI trading on Higher Lows below -100.00 (oversold) is a confirmation that the price Channel Up breaks aggressively to the upside.

The previous Golden Cross pushed the price just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, to a +18.40% rise. Throughout this time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting the uptrend.

As a result, we turn long now on GBPJPY, targeting 215.000 (just above the 3.0 Fib extension).

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DOW JONES bouncing on the 4H MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci.

Dow Jones (DJI) found Support yesterday exactly on its 4H MA200 (red trend-line), after just a brief break of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. The dominant pattern has been a Channel Up since the August 05 Low and within it, every 0.5 Fib test from the previous Low, has been the most effective buy entry as it started the new Bullish Leg.

The technical symmetry within this pattern is astounding as every Bullish Leg hit its 1.236 Fibonacci extension, completing a +8.30% rise. The ROC Higher Lows indicates that a rebound should be expected right now.

We haven't had a 1.236 Fib extension since the elections Low, so naturally take this 4H MA200 / 0.5 Fib bounce to buy if you haven't and target 45000 (also +8.30% rise).

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BONKUSD going at least x10 from here!

Bonk (BONKUSD) just formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and having broken above its current ATH Resistance (March 04 High), it is expected to rise parabolically from here.

To back this up, that is exactly what took place after the previous 1D Golden Cross a year ago (November 08 2023), when again the price broke above Resistance 1 and turned parabolic to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, completing a +20200% rise from its bottom.

If a new +20200% rise seems unrealistic to you (it would however form a perfect Higher High at the top of the long-term Channel Up), then you can target the 3.0 Fibonacci extension at $0.0006650, which represents a +1100% rise from the current levels. A x10 opportunity indeed.

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NASDAQ targeting 25400 in the next 6 months. Don't miss this!!

Nasdaq (NDX) hit this month our 20900 long-term Target, a level we called 3 months ago (August 12, see chart below):

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US100/RlXU1VVq-NASDAQ-New-Bullish-Leg-targeting-20900/

As you can see, the index has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up and with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels, we can determine on which phase of the Cycle we are.

Right now we are on the stage where the price has been rejected near the 0.786 Fib and pulled-back to the 0.5 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is exactly what took place from December 28 2023 to January 05 2024, i.e. during the previous Bullish Phase of the Channel. You can see that with the use of the Time Cycles, we can identify that the first such phase was on February 01 2023.

This is the phase that we've just completed and remarkably all 3 within the Channel Up completed a +20.88% rise. This further proves that the symmetry within this pattern is astounding. The larger Bullish Leg was completed on the previous two phases with a +49% and +48% rise respectively, so technically it is natural to assume that the current Bullish Phase (from the August 05 2024 bottom) will be completed on a +47% rise (-1% less than previously) at least.

This is why we're expecting to see 25400 as the next Higher High on a 6 month horizon.

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WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence sending a strong buy signal.

WTI Oil (USOIL) stopped yesterday's rebound on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is now on a small pull-back. Technically that is the Resistance level it needs to break if it wants to break-out aggressively towards the long-term Resistance Zone.

There are high probabilities of doing so, as the 4H RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. In fact, it is the exact same formation as the October 01 Low that rebounded aggressively above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

As a result, we are bullish on this one, targeting $76.00 (the 0.786 Fib currently).

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BITCOIN Pi Cycle Theory aiming at $120k at least!

Following Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) new All Time High in the aftermath of the U.S. elections, we've established on previous posts that we've entered the final year (12 months) of this Bull Cycle. This is clearly visible by the use of the Sine Waves as shown on this 1W chart.

** Pi Cycle **
The new aspect we're bringing to you today is the Pi Cycle indicator, which has proven to be as consistent as any other at projecting the long-term price action of Bitcoin. As you can see every Cycle Top has been considerably above the Top Pi Band (red trend-line) and we're currently trading $30k below where this level is now. This means that it is only a matter of time for BTC to 'attack' $120k and break it.

** 1W RSI kickstarting the aggression **
We are at a point where the new rally phase that started after the price tested, held and rebounded on the 1W MA50 back in early August, will start getting more and more aggressive. The final bullish signal was given last week after the 1W RSI closed above 70.00 (vertical orange dashed line). As you can see, during the previous two Cycles, every time Bitcoin closed the 1W RSI above 70.00, the Cycle peaked 54 weeks later (roughly 365 days). There is no reason to expect otherwise this time also, as this projected date (week of November 24 2025) falls exactly on the Sine Wave's Top.

Notice also that during the most aggressive part of the Parabolic Rally, the 1D MA100 (blue trend-line) tends to Support. And before that, when that crosses above the Bottom Pi band (green trend-line), the indicator gives a confirmed buy signal for the whole Cycle.

** Timing the market is everything **
The question now is how high can the price get? Well according to those estimates, a peak above the Top Pi Band can be anywhere within the $150k - $200k range, and that could be a conservative estimate. But lucky enough, with technical tools like the one we present to you today, we can time the market (thus our exits/ sells) almost perfectly and get out as high as possible, without having an absolute Target in mind.

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BROADCOM Best buy opportunity since September for $223.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) hit its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on Friday for the first time in more than 2 months (since September 11). This is the best buy opportunity since then as the dominant pattern remains the Bullish Megaphone.

On top of that, it appears that we are currently within a Bull Flag, similar to the one that was completed when the 1D MA100 was hit and held last time on April 19 2024. The 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are also very similar. That Flag initiated a price rebound above the 2.5 Fibonacci extension.

As a result, we turn bullish on AVGO again, targeting $223.00.

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S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.

The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.

As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry.

As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets.

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EURUSD Bottom made. Now rally until end of year.

The EURUSD pair eventually fulfilled all of our bearish signals since the September top, with the most recent one (November 11, see chart below) successfully hitting our 1.05300 Target:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/wJZIDaKY-EURUSD-The-sell-off-isn-t-over-yet/

We are now shifting to a long-term bullish sentiment after a long time, as the price finally reached the 1.05185 - 1.04500 Support Zone, which is holding for almost 2 years (since early January 2023).

The 1W RSI is virtually identical to the July - September 2023 Bearish Leg, on which we based all of our sell signals, as it was identified from early on that the similarities between the two were strong (1D chart).

Now that the 1.236 Fibonacci extension got hit, we expect the bullish reversal to reach at least the 0.5 Fibonacci level, as it happened on November 20 2023. As a result, our Target is currently 1.09400.

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XAUUSD 1D MA100 hit after 9 months! Expect ATH if it holds.

Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week and our bearish break-out signal easily hit the 2650 Target:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/P1zTEwdy-XAUUSD-trading-plan-with-focus-on-the-1D-MA50/

As you can see that was exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), what we claimed is the first long-term Support level. In fact that 1D MA100 test was the first touch in 9 months (since February 15 2024).

Technically, as long as it holds, we are expecting the long-term Channel Up to rebound on this Higher Low and start the new Bullish Leg towards a Higher High, which will be a new All Time High (ATH) for Gold.

The 1D MACD is reversing and if it forms a Bullish Cross, it will be the confirmation of the Bullish Leg. The last time actually it formed one this low (below 0.0), the Bullish Leg that followed reached the previous Resistance and then pulled-back again to the 1D MA50.

As a result, we are now targeting the previous Resistance level at 2790. If however we get a 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100, we won't hesitate to book the small loss again and reverse to a break-out sell, targeting a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 2440.

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CARDANO Imminent Resistance break-out on a 1D Golden Cross to $1.400

Last time we looked at Cardano (ADAUSD) was on September 24 (see chart below), when we called for the strongest buy signal in a year:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ADAUSD/EVXLxnl7-CARDANO-flashing-the-strongest-buy-signal-in-1-year/

It couldn't have been more timely as we went from a 0.3690 price to 0.8200, a +120% rise. This High is also testing the March 14 2024 High, currently Resistance 2. The market just formed a 1D Golden Cross and last time it had one was exactly 1 year ago (November 18 2023). Soon after Resistance 2 broke and the price reached a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Even the 1D RSI is on a similar fractal.

As a result, once ADA closes a 1D candle above Resistance 2, we will target $1.400 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).

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XRPUSD has started the cyclical parabolic rally.

XRP (XRPUSD) is having this week the strongest 1W candle since July 10 2023. The long-term pattern is a 6-year Triangle (since January 01 2018) and with the weekly rise, it is about to test its top (Lower Highs trend-line). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting this uptrend, which is technically the Cycle's Parabolic Rally.

In 1W RSI terms, the current price action appears to be similar with the March 20 2017 and November 2020 break-outs. Note also that as the 1W RSI broke into the overbought (>70.00) territory, this is technically the 1st of two tops, with the second (red circle) marking historically the Cycle's Top.

The Sine Waves catch very effectively the current RSI overbought High (green circle) so there is a remarkable frequency between the Cycles, which confirms that we are currently just starting the new rally.

We expect to test at least the 1.97500 April 2021 High.

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TESLA Will it turn the former 2-year Resistance into Support?

Tesla (TSLA) fulfilled our August 15 buy signal (see chart below) as after the minor pull-back we expected, it rose aggressively on its new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up and came close to a new Higher High:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/GSJQtf2e-TESLA-starting-an-aggressive-bullish-reversal-to-380/

The correction of the past 4 days may be one last great short-term buy opportunity as it hit yesterday the former Resistance Zone of July 2022. If it holds, it will turn into its new technical Support Zone, thus will be an additional buy for out $380.00 Target.

Beyond that we need to see the ATH break before formulating a new strategic plan on the pattern that will emerge.

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NZSDUSD Bottom of the 1-year Rectangle. Strong buy.

The NZDUSD pair gave us a solid sell signal on our last idea (September 04, see chart below) as it respected the 1-year Rectangle pattern, stayed within its Resistance and Support levels and easily hit our 0.6000 Target:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/4F2J5J8o-NZDUSD-Strong-sell-opportunity/

The price hit yesterday the top of the 1-year Support Zone (0.58500) and is reacting today positively with the first green 1D candle in 6 days. The 1D RSI has double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier as on April 14, so we have a strong case for going long with huge reward and limited risk. Notice how we are about to form a 1D Death Cross and the last two such patterns coincided with the bottoms on the Support Zone.

As a result, we are now long, targeting 0.6200, which is considerably below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that all previous Bullish Legs hit.

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GBPUSD Start thinking of buying. Will find support soon.

The GBPUSD pair couldn't have given us a better sell signal last time we looked into it (October 09, see chart below) as it broke first below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) then the Bullish Megaphone and is very close to our 1.2550 Target:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/LOh8MLvd-GBPUSD-Will-it-hold-the-1D-MA50/

We are approaching the stage where selling becomes far riskier than buying as the pair is approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the September - October 2023 fractal (that has been the basis of our previous sell strategy), formed the bottom and initiated a Channel Up to the (orange) 0.618 Fib.

Even the 1D MACD indicates that we are probably a few days before this bottom is formed and will be confirmed with a Bullish Cross.

As a result, we are prepared to take this long and target 1.3100 (the 0.618 Fib).

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BITCOIN Riding the 1DMA50 wave is the best strategy you can have

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had an enormous bullish break-out to new All Time Highs (ATH) following last week's U.S. elections. The past 2 days have seen this massive rally turn sideways and as always a certain part of market participants have started calling for big corrections or even bear markets. Once again we will let simple charting show why this sideways price action is nothing but a short-term and mostly necessary consolidation.

** November 2020 vs November 2024 **
This analysis is a comparison of BTC's October 2020 - April 2021 rally with October 2024 - today. We've made idea regarding those time periods in the past but this time we bring a more aggressive picture on the 1D time-frame.

As you can see, on both fractals the 1D RSI started with a Channel Up while the price was still trading sideways/ consolidating within the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the Resistance level. That was the first sign of the upcoming Parabolic Rally, which was confirmed after the price broke above the Resistance.

BTC formed a Channel Up itself and right now we are on the November Bullish Leg and its consolidation phase (circle) that has been evident on both fractals. The 2020 - 2021 rally lasted for 164 days after November 01 and rose by +395%.

** The key role of the 1D MA50 **
Even if these time and price lengths aren't replicated, the key here for traders and investors alike is this: From October 09 2020 up until April 18 2021, BTC neve closed a 1D candle below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It was the 1D MA50 that fully supported this 6-month rally, giving excellent buy entries for those seeking dip buying opportunities or those who simply wanted to hold onto their BTCs for as high as possible.

** Just ride the wave **
As a result, a viable and confirmed strategy at this stage of the Cycle (if you don't want to trade the volatility and buy low/ sell why) could be to just sell when finally a 1D candle closes below the 1D MA50. This is what we effectively call 'riding the 1D MA50 wave'.

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MOGUSD Aggressive bullish break-out taking place.

MOG Coin (MOGUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern and for the 2nd time in a week broke yesterday above its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This rebound is taking place after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) held.

The whole sequence is identical to the Falling Wedge where the price accumulated before the February 2024 rally. As you can see even their 1D RSI fractals are identical. The rally that followed the bullish break-out extended to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension and rose by +11.180%.

If the current sequence continues to replicate that pattern, we expect to see 0.000035 by January 2025 the latest.

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