KEDIA COMMODITY MARKET ALERTS

9:00PM USD ZONE DATA

Natural Gas Storage
Actual: -3B
Forecast: 2B
Previous: 42B

DATA IS SUPPORTIVE FOR NATURAL GAS

8:30PM USD ZONE DATA

Existing Home Sales
Actual: 3.96M
Forecast: 3.95M
Previous: 3.83M

CB Leading Index m/m
Actual: -0.4%
Forecast: -0.3%
Previous: -0.3%

DATA IS MIX FOR DOLLAR

8:30PM EUR ZONE DATA

Consumer Confidence
Actual: -14
Forecast: -13
Previous: -13

DATA IS WEAK FOR EUR

7.00PM US ZONE

Unemployment Claims
213K VS 219K

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
-5.5 VS 10.3

Mixed for Dollar

LME UPDATE AS ON 21.11.2024

Daily LME Daily Stocks is as follows: Aluminium down by -350MT, Copper up by 775MT, Lead down by -250MT, Nickel down by -1362MT & Zinc down by -3700MT.

Daily LME Cancelled Warrants is as follows: Aluminium down by -2500MT, Copper down by -650MT, Lead down by -250MT, Nickel down by -762MT & Zinc down by -3375MT.

Oil prices rise amid rising geopolitical tensions.

WTI crude oil futures rose above $69 per barrel on Thursday, as rising geopolitical risks outweighed concerns about growing US crude supplies. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched long-range weapons supplied by the West for the second time, a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine that broadens the conditions for using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, reigniting concerns about supply disruptions amid Middle East tensions. However, gains were limited by signs of excess supply in the market. According to EIA data, US crude oil inventories rose for the third week in a row, by 0.5 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected 0.4 million-barrel increase. Additionally, petrol stocks increased by 2.1 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 1.6 million-barrel rise.

Gold Climbs for the Fourth Straight Run

Gold rose above $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, rising for the fourth straight session, as investors sought safety in the metal as geopolitical uncertainty grew due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. Ukraine launched long-range weapons supplied by the West for the second time on Wednesday, just a day after President Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expanded the conditions for using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, reigniting concerns about the ongoing Middle East conflict. On the monetary policy front, markets remained focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, closely monitoring Fedspeak for new trading signals. A slight majority of the market continues to expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold.

9:00PM USD ZONE DATA

Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: 0.545M
Previous: 2.089M

EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW)
Actual: -0.281M
Previous: 0.175M

Crude Oil Imports
Actual: 0.237M
Previous: -0.321M

Cushing Crude Oil Inventories
Actual: -0.140M
Previous: -0.688M

Distillate Fuel Production
Actual: -0.132M
Previous: -0.127M

EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks
Actual: -0.114M
Previous: -1.394M

Gasoline Production
Actual: -0.980M
Previous: 0.559M

Heating Oil Stockpiles
Actual: 0.342M
Previous: -1.060M

EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW)
Actual: -0.012
Previous: 0.90%

Gasoline Inventories
Actual: 2.054M
Previous: -4.407M

BASEMETALS LEVELS

COPPER - 811.35
Resistance: 814.4-817.3-822.3
Support: 806.5-801.5-798.6

ZINC - 278.4
Resistance: 280.5-282.6-284
Support: 277-275.6-273.5

LEAD - 181.2
Resistance: 182-182.8-183.7
Support: 180.3-179.4-178.6

ALUMINIUM - 243.6
Resistance: 246.7-249.6-252.3
Support: 241.1-238.4-235.5

ENERGY LEVELS

CRUDEOIL - 5858
Resistance: 5906-5955-6007
Support: 5805-5753-5704

NATURAL GAS - 255.2
Resistance: 260.5-265.8-273.4
Support: 247.6-240-234.7

BULLION LEVELS

MCXBULLDEX - 18804
Resistance: 18870-18935-18998
Support: 18742-18679-18614

GOLD - 75587
Resistance: 75898-76209-76558
Support: 75238-74889-74578

SILVER - 90620
Resistance: 91299-91979-92508
Support: 90090-89561-88881

Euro Weakens Toward 1-Year Low

The euro weakened to $1.0559, nearing a one-year low of $1.0496, due to concerns over US trade tariffs' impact on Eurozone growth and geopolitical tensions. Investors sought safer assets after Ukraine used missiles against Russia and Putin expanded Russia's nuclear doctrine. The ECB has cut rates three times since June.

Highlights
# Euro weakens to $1.0559, nearing over-one-year low of $1.0496.
# Concerns over US trade tariffs' impact on Eurozone growth and geopolitical tensions influence sentiment.
# Investors seek safer assets after Ukraine used Western missiles to strike Russia.
# ECB officials warn new US trade tariffs could harm Eurozone economic growth.
# Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.
# Investors await Euro Area wage data and PMI figures

Aluminium Prices Rise on LME China's Tax Rebate Ending

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose, while prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. China's announcement to cancel a 13% export tax refund for aluminium semi-manufactured products from Dec. 1 inflated concerns about global supplies tightening and more of the product inside the country. The cancellation of rebates could make Chinese aluminium more expensive on the international market and reduce export volumes. LME aluminium may struggle to hold onto the price rally until physical demand picks up. China's imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in October fell 8.7% YoY to 320,000 metric tons, while imports for the first ten months of this year reached 3.17 million tons, up 32.4% YoY. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 0.5% to 311,400 metric tons.

Highlights
# Aluminium prices on LME rose and SHFE aluminium contract closed down 0.4% at 20,470 yuan ($2,827.5) a ton.
# China's cancellation of a 13% export tax refund for aluminium semi-manufactured products from Dec. 1 sparked global supply concerns.
# The cancellation of rebates could make Chinese aluminium more expensive and reduce export volumes.
# LME aluminium may struggle to maintain price rally until physical demand increases.
# China's imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in October fell 8.7% YoY to 320,000 metric tons.
# Aluminum stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 311,400 metric tons by the end of October.

EU 2024/25 Soft Wheat Exports

The European Union's soft wheat exports reached 8.79 million metric tons by November 17, up from 12.66 million a year earlier, according to data from the European Commission. Barley exports reached 1.83 million tons, while maize imports reached 7.60 million tons. However, export figures for Italy, France, Bulgaria, and Ireland were not complete for the last five weeks, with data not available since the start of 2024.

Highlights
# Soft wheat exports reached 8.79 million metric tons by Nov. 17, up from 12.66 million a year earlier.
# EU barley exports increased to 1.83 million tons, from 2.91 million tons in 2023/24.
# EU maize imports increased to 7.60 million tons, from 6.83 million a year earlier.
# Export figures for Italy, France, Bulgaria, and Ireland were incomplete for the last five weeks.

Gold Price Strengthens Amid Russia's Nuclear Doctrine

Gold price has recovered to nearly $2,635 following Russia's approval of a revision in its nuclear policy. This move has sparked fears of a nuclear war, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. The move was seen as an answer to the US backing Ukraine's military strength by allowing Kyiv to use Washington-supplied ATACMS missiles to attack Russia's Kursk region. Goldman Sachs is bullish on the gold price for a year-long horizon, expecting it to rise to $3,000 by 2025. The US Dollar Index fell back to near the key support of 106.00.

Highlights
# Gold price recovers to nearly $2,635 due to escalation in Russia-Ukraine war.
# Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to update the country's nuclear doctrine.
# The move has heightened fears of a nuclear war, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like Gold.
# The nuclear doctrine states that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression with conventional weapons against it.
# Russia acknowledges US President Joe Biden's approval of the supply of missiles to Ukraine as an intent to prolong the conflict.
# Goldman Sachs predicts a year-long bullish gold price rise to $3,000 by 2025 due to higher demand from central banks and flows to exchange-traded funds as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
# Gold price has recovered 38% of losses in the first half of November amid increasing geopolitical worries.
# Trump's promise to raise import tariffs and lower taxes is expected to boost inflation and economic growth.
# The impact of Trump's victory is visible in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
# The US Dollar Index (DXY) surrenders its intraday gains and falls back to near the key support of 106.00.
# Gold price bounces back strongly after discovering support near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,535.

Commerzbank Expects Gold Price To Rise To $2,650 In Second Half Of 2025

UAE Surpasses London as World's Second-Largest Gold Hub

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has reported that Asian demand has transformed the gold market, driving prices to record highs. The UAE, which has become the world's second-largest gold hub, is positioned to serve as an important bridge between East and West. The DMCC envisions the start of an "Asian Century" for gold, with a focus on developing a new gold economic corridor among BRICS nations, including the UAE. The UAE has seen significant growth in gold trading this year, with $129 billion in gold flowing through Dubai in 2024, marking a 36% increase compared to the previous year. The DMCC also recommended enhancing transparency and regulation in the gold market, supporting digital innovation, and improving access for emerging markets.

Highlights
# Asian demand has transformed the gold market, driving prices to record highs.
# The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) reports that Asia's influence in the marketplace is expected to grow.
# The UAE and the United Arab Emirates are positioned as a bridge between East and West, with a focus on developing a new gold economic corridor among BRICS nations, including the UAE.
# The UAE has seen significant growth in gold trading this year, with $129 billion in gold flowing through Dubai in 2024, marking a 36% increase compared to the previous year.
# The DMCC recommends enhancing transparency and regulation in the gold market, supporting digital innovation, and improving access for emerging markets.
# The report calls for further digitization of the gold market to improve transparency, eliminate pricing inconsistencies, and reduce reliance on derivative products.

Indonesia's Nickel Ore Imports Surge by 50 Times

Indonesia's nickel ore imports in the first ten months of 2024 soared to 9.3 million metric tons, more than 50 times the previous year's figure of 161,917 tons. The world's largest nickel producer has bought record volumes of the ore from the Philippines since April, as smelter demand increased and Jakarta delayed the issue of mining quotas due to heavy rains. Indonesia's chief executive officer, Alexander Barus, said the imports were a rational business decision made by domestic smelters. The total value of nickel ore imports from January to October was $406 million, up from $7.1 million a year earlier. Indonesia changed the way it issued mining quotas this year, affecting nearly all miners.

Highlights
# Indonesia's nickel ore imports increased by 50 times to 9.3 million metric tons in the first ten months of 2024.
# The world's largest nickel producer has purchased record volumes of the ore from the Philippines since April due to increased smelter demand and delayed mining quotas.
# Alexander Barus, CEO of Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, attributed the imports to a rational business decision by domestic smelters.
# Imports of nickel ore from January to October totaled $406 million, up from $7.1 million a year earlier.
# Indonesia's change in mining quotas affected nearly all miners, with ore shortages continuing into the year.
# Indonesian authorities have defended the nickel ore quota, stating approved volumes were sufficient for smelters.

7:00PM USD ZONE DATA

Building Permits
Actual: 1.42M
Forecast: 1.44M
Previous: 1.43M

Building Permits
Actual: 1.311M
Forecast: 1.34M
Previous: 1.35M

DATA IS FLAT FOR DOLLAR

3:30PM EUR ZONE DATA

Final Core CPI y/y
Actual: 2.7%
Forecast: 2.7%
Previous: 2.7%

Final CPI y/y
Actual: 2.0%
Forecast: 2.0%
Previous: 2.0%