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https://www.bloombergtechnoz.com/detail-news/63631/harga-emas-tak-terbendung-pecahkan-rekor-tertinggi-lagi

(Bloomberg) -- *J.P. Morgan analyst Harsh Wardhan Modi cut the recommendation on Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT (BBRI) to neutral from overweight.*

PT set to IDR4,200, implies a 1.2% increase from last price.
Indonesia's BRI reported earnings and sales that trailed estimates for the quarter on Feb. 12.

*Macro Updates* -BNI Sekuritas-

*Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD3.5bn in January 2025, up from USD2.2bn in December 2024*, surpassing both internal and consensus estimates of USD1.8bn and USD1.6bn, respectively. The surplus was *driven more by a sharper-than-expected contraction in imports than by strong export growth*. Imports declined by 2.7% YoY, reversing 11.1% growth in December, with consumer goods (-7% YoY) and raw materials (-3% YoY) falling from 12% and 9% growth in December. This suggests a still-modest domestic consumption environment. Exports remained muted at 4.7% YoY, pressured by weaker global demand for key commodities. Palm oil (-3% YoY) and nickel (-2% YoY) exports declined, compared to strong growth in December (31.4% and 13% YoY, respectively). Despite the larger trade surplus, *Indonesia’s current account deficit is projected to widen to -1.0% of GDP in 2025, from -0.7% in 2024, mainly due to stagnant export growth and external risks*. These factors highlight potential downside risks to Indonesia’s trade performance amid global economic uncertainties.

*Financial Updates* -BNI Sekuritas-

*Banks' profits in 2024 were mostly in line with our expectations, except for Mandiri, which fell short, while BRIS outperformed*. Compared to consensus, BNI and BTN missed expectations, while BRIS exceeded them. The *Big Four banks' profit growth decelerated to 4% yoy in 2024, down from 22% in 2023, as SOE banks posted only low single-digit growth, while BCA achieved a solid 13% yoy increase*. For *2025, we expect Mandiri’s profit growth to improve slightly to 4% yoy (vs. 1% in 2024), BCA’s to moderate to 9% (vs. 13% in 2024), and BRI’s to decline by 4% yoy (vs. flat in 2024).*

The 2025 outlook remains mixed, with optimism fueled by a pro-growth government program, strong corporate loan demand, and lower SRBI and BI rates expected to improve funding costs. However, *liquidity conditions and consumer purchasing power remain key concerns. Loan growth is expected to slow, with Mandiri guiding for 10-12% yoy , the highest among peers*, while *BCA remains the most cautious at 6-8% yoy*. Credit costs should remain stable yoy , except for Mandiri, which projects an increase from 80bps in 2024 to 1-1.2% in 2025 due to the absence of write-backs rather than asset quality concerns. *Despite expected BI rate cuts, banks do not anticipate NIM improvement.*

Positively, LAR declined across banks, with BCA and Mandiri at 5.3% and 6.8%, respectively, and BRI and BNI around 10%. Loan yields for BNI and Mandiri improved qoq, while BCA signaled that lending rates have likely bottomed, with mortgage rates already rising in early 2025. However, *LDR levels were stretched, especially for Mandiri (98%) and BNI (95%).* Opex growth for the Big Four banks accelerated to 10% yoy, the fastest since 2021, while CIR increased for most banks except BCA. *Consensus expectations for 2025F were downgraded by up to 3% post-2024 results.*

Looking ahead, *BRI's 1M25 results will be closely watched as it may frontload credit costs in 1Q25. BI is expected to cut rates, improving liquidity and lowering SRBI yields*. Dividend yields remain attractive, exceeding 8% for BRI, while the postponed AGM for SOE banks in late March could serve as a key catalyst for potential management changes.

US stocks rose, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high in a late session advance, amid a rally in chippmakers and hoppes that US-Russia talks would drive an end to the war in Ukraine.

-Bloomberg-

(Bloomberg) -- *Indonesia’s central bank may cut as much as 50 basis points off its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday to boost economic growth*, according to Bahana.

SRBI yields have dropped by more than 50 bps since the last cut in January, “implying possible dovish surprise in monetary meeting this week,” analyst Satria Sambijantoro writes in a note
Policy rate could be the only tool left to support economic growth amid government budget cuts
Base case is for BI to cut 25 bps to 5.5% on Wednesday on the back of global monetary policy easing
“IDR assets would still maintain their appeal as most global yields are on the downward trajectory,” he says
Sees tactical buying opportunity for Indonesian assets, particularly equities, as foreign funds likely to stay in EM for a while

*Harga Saham Sudah Turun Jauh, Telkom (TLKM) Beri Sinyal Rencana Buyback Saham*

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) memberikan sinyal untuk melakukan pembelian kembali alias buyback saham. Pasalnya, saham telekomunikasi sudah meninggalkan level Rp 4.000. 
"Nanti (rencana buyback) akan diumumkan pada saatnya," ucap Ririek Adriansyah Direktur Utama Telkom Indonesia, saat ditemui Selasa (18/2). 

Hingga akhir perdagangan Selasa (18/2), TLKM berada di posisi Rp 2.680 per saham. Jika dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya, TLKM menguat 1,13% atau naik 30 poin. 

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/harga-saham-sudah-turun-jauh-telkom-tlkm-beri-sinyal-rencana-buyback-saham

*Bisnis Ojol Ngerem Sedikit, GOTO Bakal Begini*

JAKARTA, investor.id – Bisnis ojek online (ojol) alis on demand services (ODS) sedikit mengerem pada kuartal IV-2024. Namun, ini sudah sesuai prediksi PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO), pemain utama bisnis ODS sekaligus raksasa teknologi Indonesia.

Dalam ajang Mandiri Investment Forum (MIF), manajemen GOTO menyebutkan, perlambatan itu sudah masuk perhitungan panduan pertumbuhan GTV ODS tahun 2024 berkisar 12-15%, di mana pada kuartal IV diprediksi berkisar 13,7-25,3%, dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya 20,7%.

“GOTO masih mempertahankan target pertumbuhan GTV ODS 2024,” tulis Mandiri Sekuritas dalam risetnya, mengutip keterangan manajemen GOTO dalam MIF, dikutip pada Selasa (18/2/2025).

https://investor.id/market/389671/bisnis-ojol-ngerem-sedikit-goto-bakal-begini

*Gandeng Sinopec, Prospek Saham PGEO Seperti Apa?*

JAKARTA, investor.id - PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO) terus memperkuat posisinya sebagai pemain utama di sektor energi terbarukan (EBT) global.

Perseroan menggandeng anak usaha Sinopec Group, Sinopec Star Co., Ltd, untuk mengembangkan energi panas bumi serta mengeksplorasi potensi hidrogen hijau di Indonesia, China, dan pasar global lainnya.

Direktur Utama PGEO, Julfi Hadi, menjelaskan bahwa kolaborasi ini menggabungkan keunggulan kedua perusahaan. Sinopec Star memiliki pengalaman dalam pemanfaatan panas bumi bersuhu menengah dan rendah untuk district heating serta pengembangan hydrogen plant.

Sementara itu, PGEO memiliki pengalaman panjang dalam pemanfaatan panas bumi bersuhu tinggi untuk pembangkitan listrik di Indonesia.

https://investor.id/market/389660/gandeng-sinopec-prospek-saham-pgeo-seperti-apa