Markets are like tidesโvolatile and unforgiving. In stormy seas, it's not about chasing waves but preserving your boat for calmer waters ahead.
If you're still looking to make quick bucks in this market, bewareโthe market might wipe you out.
Over the last six months, we've seen massive swings on both sides. For the first half of the year, markets were heavily bought into, creating a "buy on dips" mentality, particularly in F&O stocks and with leverage. However, in the last two months, every rise has been aggressively sold off. From 26,200 to 23,900, rallies have been crushed, leaving retail investors reeling as the market showcased its bearish nature.
This is not an easy market to navigate, with wild swings and frequent whipsaw movesโone day up, another day down. The Indian market isn't even in sync with global trends. Since the October expiry, markets have been light on positions. While deep dips attract buying, any rise is met with strong selling pressure, particularly from FIIs, contributing to the sell-off.
What Triggered This Market?
The market's shift in momentum stemmed from a shocker. Over the past 2โ3 years, we hadn't witnessed a significant slowdown or de-growth in the Indian economy. However, since May-June, there were hints of trouble: economic growth slowing, unsecured loans increasing, and even the RBI imposing restrictions on unsecured lending to prevent worsening conditions.
Despite these signals, the market moved higher, buoyed by expectations of robust retail/SIP inflows and confidence in a "strong Indian economy." However, as Q2 earnings season unfolded, where estimates were already soft due to seasonal factors, the results underperformed significantly. Worse, management commentary across sectors turned bleak. This triggered a sell-off by FIIs, HNIs, and DIIs, with FIIs redirecting funds to markets like China, the US, and Japan.
Retail investors, burdened by debt, are also struggling. Recent data indicates that many have taken loans from multiple institutions, leading to a debt trap, often exacerbated by stock market losses. Nestle's management highlighted urban slowdownsโwhere most market participants resideโwhile rural demand remains resilient.
Adding to this, high volatility has led to significant losses in the F&O market. K.V. Kamath recently commented that approximately โน1.5 trillion was lost in Indiaโs F&O market, much of it funded by unsecured loans. If these figures are accurate, further pain may lie ahead.
Will Markets Improve?
Indian markets have historically commanded premium valuations due to strong economic growth and consistent fund inflows. However, doubts over H2 results, sluggish management commentary, and weak demand could keep markets range-bound for now. Improvement could come from strong November-December data, increased government spending (currently down 20% YoY), or a notable recovery in demand. Until there is clarity on H2 numbers, markets are unlikely to rally significantly.
Currently, markets are consolidating, with gradual declines in stock prices. Many stocks are undergoing both time and price correctionsโa painful period that erodes capital slowly. Without realizing it, investors can see 25-40% of their capital vanish in small bites.
Strategy for This Market
To navigate these challenges, first, understand the problem. Out of 5 trades, 3 may result in losses, 1 in profit, and 1 in breakeven. The odds aren't favorable.
Consider this analogy:
In a casino, dealers change interval of every 30-60 minutes. Some dealers bring luck, while others do not.
If you encounter an unfavorable dealer, you either stop playing, reduce your bets, or switch tables.
The current market is similarโthink of the "dealer" as unfavorable right now.
1. Avoid F&O, Index Trades, and Leverage: These are risky in such volatile conditions.
2. Preserve Capital: If your market capital is below โน5L, avoid trading aggressively until fundamentals improve. It's better to be late than lose your capital.
3. Focus on Value Stocks: If you have ample capital, trade in cash stocks with minimal risk.