Labyrinth Capital @defi_hustle Channel on Telegram

Labyrinth Capital

@defi_hustle

labyrinthcapital.co.uk

Keeping you informed and up to date with the latest developments within the financial markets, minus the unnecessary economics jargon.

NFA

Labyrinth Capital: Your Go-To Source for Financial Market Updates (English)

Are you looking to stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments within the financial markets, but tired of wading through unnecessary economics jargon? Look no further than Labyrinth Capital! This Telegram channel, with the username @defi_hustle, is your go-to source for all things related to finance. Labyrinth Capital is dedicated to providing its followers with clear and concise updates on the financial markets, without overwhelming them with complicated terminology. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started in the world of finance, this channel is designed to keep you in the know and help you make informed decisions about your investments. With a focus on transparency and accuracy, Labyrinth Capital aims to be a trusted source for financial news and insights. The channel covers a wide range of topics, including stock market trends, cryptocurrency updates, and global economic news. Whether you're interested in traditional investments or the latest developments in decentralized finance (DeFi), you'll find valuable information and analysis on Labyrinth Capital. In addition to providing market updates, Labyrinth Capital also offers educational content to help followers better understand the complexities of the financial world. From beginner-friendly explanations to in-depth analysis of market trends, this channel is a valuable resource for anyone looking to expand their financial knowledge. With a commitment to keeping you informed and empowered, Labyrinth Capital is a must-follow for anyone interested in the world of finance. Join the channel today to start receiving regular updates and insights on the latest developments in the financial markets. Stay ahead of the curve with Labyrinth Capital!

Labyrinth Capital

21 Feb, 15:25

Everyone make sure you’re subscribed if you haven’t already!

New video will be out today🙏🏼

https://youtube.com/@10percentent?si=Upte2aMI4naq1BZL
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Labyrinth Capital

20 Feb, 16:12

FED'S BOSTIC: THE FED DOES NOT WANT ITS BALANCE SHEET TO BECOME A SOURCE OF INSTABILITY.
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Labyrinth Capital

20 Feb, 16:11

FED'S BOSTIC: THE POSSIBILITY OF SLOWING QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE DEBT CEILING, BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE FED DOES NOT WANT TO OVERSHOOT.
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Labyrinth Capital

20 Feb, 13:01

⚠️Key quotes for macro backdrop from Treasury Sec Scott Bessent:

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: THE BIDEN TEAM SHORTENED TREASURIES DURATION IN SALES

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: TERMING OUT THE DEBT IS A LONG WAY OFF.

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: IT'S EASIER TO EXTEND DURATION WHEN NOT COMPETING WITH THE FED

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT NOTES THE FED IS RUNNING DOWN ITS TREASURY HOLDINGS

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT REPEATS THE US HAS A STRONG DOLLAR POLICY

US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: I AIM TO TELL CHINA THEY NEED TO REBALANCE THE ECONOMY

///

See image for our Q1 forecast of Yellen's yield curve manipulation and the dangers of shifting policy back to long term coupons. Something Bessent has now said is a "long way off".

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Labyrinth Capital

20 Feb, 12:47

⚠️Some key statements out of China this morning:

"We are to promote cross border use of Yuan"

"We will direct more economic policy focus on boosting consumption"

///

"PBOC vows to improve credit enhancement system for private companies"

"PBOC vows to expand bond financing scale in the private sector"

The last two quotes are key. The PBOC is finally showing signs of indirect debt monetization by expanding credit to the private sector, Since Chinese banks are state owned, this will enable more private sector debt to be held or lent against, expanding their balance sheets and injecting more liquidity into the system.

Another positive for the global liquidity backdrop and of course, mentioned in Q1 report back in Jan!

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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 19:27

The most important quotes so that we can get the consensus of the FOMC:

Officials Discussed Slowing or Pausing Balance Sheet Runoff Pending Debt-Limit Resolution"

FOMC Minutes: "Reserves might decline quickly upon resolution of the debt limit and, at the current pace of balance sheet runoff, might potentially reach levels below those viewed by the Committee as appropriate.

FED: FEW BELIEVE FED FUNDS MAY NOT BE FAR ABOVE NEUTRAL LEVEL

FED CAN MAINTAIN POLICY AT RESTRICTIVE LEVEL IF ECONOMY STRONG

///

As we have said, the Fed will be forced to begin easing measures and with the debt ceiling debacle looming, it means until sorted, any QT will begin to eat into bank reserves and go below the already adequate level we project they’re currently at. This is a dangerous threshold (Ref 2019 Repo Spike)

Therefore any pause in QT will be welcomed and positive for the liquidity backdrop.

In regards to the neutral rate. You can see that they’re already trying to run with the idea that the neutral rate is close to the 4.5% Fed Funds so that if there is an economic downturn, the Fed Funds will not have to be cut that far to go below neutral and into an easing phase. This is part of the Feds communication tool.

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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 19:06

FOMC Minutes highlights.

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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 15:36

#Q1 guys would have expected this. Expect part of this deal to involve China monetary easing but in doing so finding a way to prevent the further de-valuing of the Yuan.

Positive for the macro liquidity backdrop.

https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2025q1report690words
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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 15:34

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: TRUMP EYES A BIGGER AND BETTER TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA - NYT.

TRUMP WOULD LIKE TO STRIKE A WIDE-RANGING DEAL WITH CHINA'S XI, ONE THAT GOES BEYOND JUST REWORKING TRADING RELATIONSHIP.

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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 13:33

Fund Manager cash allocation has fallen to its lowest level since 2008's GFC.

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Labyrinth Capital

19 Feb, 12:22

UK Inflation (Jan)

CPI (YoY): 3.0% vs. 2.8% exp. (prior 2.5%)

CPI (MoM): -0.1% vs. -0.3% exp. (prior 0.3%)

Core CPI (YoY): 3.7% vs. 3.7% exp. (prior 3.2%)

This is the highest inflation rate since March 2024.

As documented, the UK coupled with Canada and Eurozone nations was experiencing deflation in Q3 going into Q4 with September CPI at 1.7%. We are now at 3% in Jan.

The UK is still experiencing sluggish growth but above average inflation.

The result? Everyday workers being squeezed from both sides.

Next likely scenario is more stealth QE from BoE, unlikely to cut rates.

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Labyrinth Capital

18 Feb, 19:17

Global Liquidity is still rising in February. Update $BTC:

https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1891929550570803624?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
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Labyrinth Capital

18 Feb, 17:02

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke had this to say in November 2002.

Now apply it today. Powell and his colleagues at the FOMC follow this playbook.

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Labyrinth Capital

18 Feb, 16:59

The current situation with Gold and precious metals is a stark example of how the Fed use their communication tool.

Yesterday we posted this^^ about rumours in the media about a shortage of gold reserves with the Bank of England. This was down to the global uncertainty around tariff implementation and a rush for cold storage with investors.

This week we have also had reports about Trump and Musk investigating Fort Knox reserves to ensure that all the 4,580 reported tonnes are present and not stolen or traded away.

These reports perpetuated out into the markets and media has caused a run on gold in light of a rumoured shortage. Since the first report gold has moved from 2850 to 2940 and climbing.

How does this correlate to the Fed? For years now, we have made it clear that the Fed's most important tool is what they communicate out to the markets and media. This is then priced in and front run by participants even though the Fed have not tangibly moved rates. The 10Y, DXY and every asset class instead reacts to the narrative that is put out.

This gold move is proof of how this works.

Now what are the odds that Fort Knox is looked into and all reserves are there? What happens to the gold price then?

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Labyrinth Capital

18 Feb, 13:49

Trade speculators have built the largest Ethereum $ETH short position in history.

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Labyrinth Capital

18 Feb, 12:52

This morning UK jobs data was released.

- Jobless Claims Change: 22.0K (prev 0.7K; prevR -15.1K)
- Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% (prev 4.6%)

Market is continuing to fully price the next 25bp BoE cut by June after this data, with 57bp of easing seen by eoy.

On UK wages, key observation is recent rise in wage growth.

This is mostly driven by the lowest percentile of earners. Likely linked to rise in minimum wage coming into effect.

Rise in wages unlikely to have cyclical expansion for the UK as inflation is pretty persistent in Europe all round. Couple these two factors together, and market does not see rate cut in March.

See our recent analysis of the UK economy here: https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/the-uk-economy-is-failing-13817fa78863
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Labyrinth Capital

17 Feb, 17:03

Physical gold buying is skyrocketing.

Whilst gold has cooled off recently, gold demand is still in abundance and we still project higher prices in 2025.

Gold inventories in the 3 largest COMEX gold vaults surged by 15 MILLION ounces in 2 months, translating to a +115% increase.

There are many reasons for this, one being that the transfers of physical gold from the Bank of England to New York is now exceeding the panic during the COVID-19 crisis. Subsequently, the BoE has had to delay customer delivery of gold as they rush to meet demand.

The recent gold move also saw huge inflows from China as investors battle against debt deflation.

The run up was also pushed by frantic tariff frontrunning. In essence, people have been attempting to move gold domestically to protect against impromptu tariffs by trump.

Physical gold holdings are now ABOVE 2020 pandemic levels.

Buy Gold

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Labyrinth Capital

16 Feb, 21:49

Labyrinth Capital pinned «🧵2/2: Bessent recently also came out and said explicitly that he will continue Yellens "non QE QE", which means there is far less emphasis for Dollar and yield appreciation. Trump will get his lower 10Y as we have posted. Meanwhile markets also seem to be…»
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Labyrinth Capital

14 Feb, 13:39

🔴US January Retail Sales (MoM)
Est.: -0.2%, Act.: -0.9%

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Labyrinth Capital

14 Feb, 11:11

Remember this?

Why holding the Fed Funds at these high rates is actually LESS restrictive on the economy…

Standing the test of time. A resilient economy.

https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1859599220077994086?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 19:29

🔴 TRUMP REPEATS HIS THREAT TO BRICS OF A 100% TARIFF.
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13 Feb, 18:58

🔴 TRUMP: INTEREST RATES ARE GOING TO BE GOING DOWN.
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13 Feb, 18:58

🔴 TRUMP: I EXPECT JOBS TO GO UP, PRICES COULD GO UP SOMEWHAT SHORT TERM.
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13 Feb, 18:49

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: TRUMP: EU LOWERED TARIFF TO 2.5%. THAT'S A BIG WIN.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 18:49

🔴 TRUMP: NO TARIFFS IF MANUFACTURE OR BUILD PRODUCT IN THE US.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 18:49

🔴 TRUMP: VAT TAX WILL BE VIEWED AS A TARIFF.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 18:48

🔴 TRUMP: WHATEVER THEY CHARGE US, WE WILL CHARGE THEM.
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13 Feb, 18:48

TRUMP: I HAVE DECIDED TO CHARGE A RECIPROCAL TARIFF.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 17:55

Trump tariff news coming through in 5 minutes.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 17:39

See from here what Powell said. Nov 2024
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 17:36

Inflation *as expected* is back. Inflation expectations are trending higher also. Should this be a surprise?

The media will try to sell the narrative that the Fed failed, or that the Fed pivot failed. But this is a lie.

The Fed never wanted excessive rate cuts.

We held this view from the very beginning. Extract from Q1 report.

Tweet below better format:

https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1890091862158934212?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 15:17

🔴⚠️BREAKING: President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" that will be announced at 1 PM ET today will have a delay and may begin April 1st, per CNBC.
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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 13:32

🟢PPI y/y: 3.5% v 3.3% forecast

🟢PPI core y/y: 3.6% v 3.3% forecast

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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 13:30

🟢PPI m/m: 0.4%

Core PPI m/m: 0.3%

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Labyrinth Capital

13 Feb, 13:24

PPI in 5 minutes.

Consensus -

Core PPI forecast: 0.3% v 0% prior

PPI m/m: 0.3% v 0.2% forecast

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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 20:37

⚠️Reverse repo tumbles from $99.6BN to $76.4BN, lowest since April 2021

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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:42

“Alt szn” 101
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11 Feb, 16:33

FED'S POWELL: I BELIEVE NEUTRAL RATE HAS RISEN FROM VERY LOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:10

And here for stablecoins and RE - CBDC
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:09

Read again.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:06

🔴FED'S POWELL: I SUPPORT EFFORTS TO CREATE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK AROUND STABLECOINS.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:03

Absolutely key here folks. As we’ve told it word for word for months and months. But this here rhetoric is dangerous. If you read the Q1 report you’d know why! The amount of credit needing to be turned over in the next 2 years NEEDS QE!

Not good!
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:02

🔴🔴⚠️⚠️Q: What will we go back to QE?

Powell: We do QE only when we’re at the lower bound and can’t cut interest rates anymore. Only in a situation when rates are at 0 and we’re a long way from 0 now.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 16:00

🔴⚠️Q: Looking long term will the Fed continue to unwind the balance sheet.

Powell: We will continue to slow and then stop the decline when bank reserves are ample. Recent data and feel of market is that the reserves are abundant. We’re not yet stopping.
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11 Feb, 15:44

Q: Will IR remain above 6% for the year (for housing)?

Powell: Inflation and labour market is in tact still, but our level of IR is unlikely to be cut, we do not see a reason to.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:38

🔴FED'S POWELL: CAPITAL AT THE LARGEST BANKS IS ABOUT RIGHT.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:37

🔴 FED'S POWELL: I BELIEVE THE SYSTEM OF PAYMENTS AT THE TREASURY IS SAFE.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:03

FED'S POWELL: THE FED WILL WRAP UP FRAMEWORK REVIEW BY LATE SUMMER.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:02

FED'S POWELL: THE FED'S FRAMEWORK REVIEW WILL NOT INCLUDE A FOCUS ON THE INFLATION TARGET, WHICH WILL REMAIN AT 2%.
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11 Feb, 15:02

FED'S POWELL: POLICY IS WELL-POSITIONED TO DEAL WITH RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:02

🔴 FED'S POWELL: WE CAN EASE POLICY IF THE LABOUR MARKET UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS OR INFLATION FALLS MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 15:02

🔴 FED'S POWELL: WE DO NOT NEED TO BE IN A HURRY TO ADJUST POLICY.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 14:56

Powell testifies at 3pm, in 5 minutes.

Will post key comments.
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Labyrinth Capital

11 Feb, 10:54

The market-implied inflation rates over the next two and five years have climbed to the highest levels since early 2023.

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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 18:29

Big Thankyou for 2,000 subs in the Tele channel. 🫡

I appreciate all the support especially to the day1s like @Dotz10Percent and @tradebani

If you’ve been sharing the posts in here over the past 4 years just know I am very grateful and hope that we can continue to shift the paradigm in which macroeconomics and Fed analysis is looked at.

Below I posted on twitter about:

“The Biggest Threat To The Bull Market - The Debt Maturity Wall.”

If you like, rt and follow our Twitter, I’ll select a few accounts and send you our Q2 2025 Financial Report at the beginning of April.

Here is the tweet:

https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1887929968824565777?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 15:57

$DXY bulls for all tariff news. Macro narrative in tact 🫡
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 15:55

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: TRUMP TOLD REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS HE PLANS TO ISSUE RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY

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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:50

Key still, watch RRP
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:44

Overall no break of trend, neutral. Macro narrative still in tact.

Growth in wages supports higher CPI.

Current outlook supports a higher dollar short - medium considering tariffs and Treasury calendar.

Red flags from Q1 report still evident.

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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:32

🔴 RATE FUTURES TRADERS SEE THE FED NEXT CUTTING IN MAY VS JUNE BEFORE JOBS REPORT.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:30

Avg Hourly Employment: 0.5% 🟢
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07 Feb, 13:30

Unemployment Rate: 4% 🟢
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:30

NFP : 143k🔴
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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 13:10

⚠️NFP in 20 minutes.

Forecast: 169k v 256k forecast

Unemployment Rate to stay at 4.1%.

Avg Hourly Earnings staying at 0.3% also.

///

Any deviation showing weaker labour market will cause market to price in more easing from the Fed.

Recent comments from Fed members suggested holding Fed Funds at 4.5%.

Rhetoric and policy from Trump cabinet has also been goals of a stronger dollar $DXY.

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Labyrinth Capital

07 Feb, 08:52

Retail investors rushed to buy $NVDA’s recent dip at levels never seen before,

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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 20:24

You can think about it in this sense.

Every time the Fed alters monetary policy, the net effect on the dollar $DXY, its value and purchasing power will be directly reflected in stablecoins like $USDC $RLUSD and $USDT. They will fluctuate based on the Fed positions.

Stablecoins provide the digital component to conduct monetary policy more effectively. It is the first step to a fully fledged CBDC.

The ramping up of crypto adoption is also not a coincidence. As BTC and others become more integrated into the financial system, institutional investment in and out of stablecoins becomes a more prominent role of transactional volume.

Over time the US can then phase out cash as merchants accept stablecoins.

Stablecoins being backed by traditional dollars and treasuries, allows the Fed to inject liquidity into the economy without the need for a fully centralised CBDC. (This comes later)

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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 20:16

See here
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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 20:16

FED'S WALLER: STABLECOINS TO BROADEN USD AS RESERVE CURRENCY

Well would you look at that? It’s almost like having a digital version of the already longstanding world reserve. Simply expanding dollar hegemony into the digital space.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 18:29

BESSENT: DON'T SEE CHANGES IN ISSUANCE IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE

Scott Bessent = Janet Yellen. Hilarious we literally just talked about this.
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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 18:29

BESSENT: SURE POWELL WILL `DO THE RIGHT THING'
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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 18:28

BESSENT: WITH TRUMP'S POLICIES 10Y YIELD TO NATURALLY COME DOWN

🆗 😭👍
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Labyrinth Capital

06 Feb, 18:27

BESSENT: STRONG DOLLAR POLICY COMPLETELY INTACT UNDER TRUMP
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Labyrinth Capital

27 Jan, 14:06

Another reason investors are increasingly nervous ahead of earnings season is that Mag 7 profit growth is seen as slowing.

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Labyrinth Capital

27 Jan, 12:04

Whilst crypto is down, there have been rumours out of the Trump administration that US-based cryptocurrencies will be tax free.

The below diagram visualises the coins:

- Made in America
- Bought or supported by Trumps World Liberty Financial
- Part of the Grayscale Trust
- Part of Coinbase 50 Index

If you’re scratching your head about what projects to look at these have potential.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

27 Jan, 11:40

Bitcoin heads for its biggest drop since August 2024, whilst $2 trillion worth of market cap in US stocks has been wiped out.

Markets are reacting poorly to the fear of DeepSeek, with tech, crypto, and altcoins all showing blood.

NVIDIA on course to lose $350 billion in market value based on pre-market trading.

What do we know for sure? NVIDIA has been running huge profit margins for years. This has boosted investment all round in the Mag7, which has concentrated equity inflows since 2022 through AI hype.

For the time being, this threat is real for the Mag7 which has signified a short term sell off but we doubt this is a top in markets just yet. The FUD is not helped by the constant fear on social media either.

Once more however, mentioned in the Q1 report, gains in markets will be far more tough to come by this year. The AI hype will likely stabilise after the market calms down as the other very real threats mentioned come into view.

FOMC this week does NOT help the markets case either.
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Labyrinth Capital

26 Jan, 23:58

Key Events This Week.

Most volatile day: Wednesday USD FOMC Meeting. Expecting Fed Funds to be held at 4.5%.

Get the Q1 report here: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2025q1report690words
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 21:00

…
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 20:56

Trump Crypto Exec Order

Agencies are prohibited from establishing or promoting Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) within the U.S. or abroad.

A President's Working Group on Digital Asset Markets is established to recommend regulatory and legislative proposals.

The Working Group will propose a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins, within 180 days.

The Working Group will evaluate the potential creation of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 20:30

TRUMP SAYS HE EXPECTS THE FED TO LISTEN TO HIM ON INTEREST RATES
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 20:29

TRUMP SAYS HE WOULD CONSIDER TALKING TO POWELL ON INTEREST RATES
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 20:21

TRUMP ORDER ON CRYPTO TO DEVELOP NATIONAL DIGITAL ASSET STOCKPILE

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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 20:19

TRUMP SIGNS ORDER TO CREATE CRYPTOCURRENCY WORKING GROUP

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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 17:52

TRUMP: WANT TO 'OBLITERATE' US DEBT
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 17:51

TRUMP: I WILL DEMAND THAT INTEREST RATES DROP IMMEDIATELY
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 17:42

BREAKING: Trump says US will be world capital of AI and crypto

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 11:32

Has crypto topped out? https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1882231362813563048?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
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Labyrinth Capital

23 Jan, 11:05

Here are ETF flows since Election Day. Growth clear in Crypto and Equities as well as cash like bonds, which refers to short term highly liquid bills.

We went through in the Q1 report, how Yellen had been issuing far more short term bills than long duration bonds which has skewed the yield curve making it less effective as an indicator for a recession or downturn in the economy.

Short term bills getting huge inflows is directly linked to the recent influx in global liquidity, net positive for markets. Whether this carries on is down to Scott Bessent the newly appointed Treasury Sec.

Draw your eyes to the bottom of the chart and you see that long duration + International exposures have had the most withdrawals.

Once again USD exceptionalism.

Get the Q1 report here: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2025q1report690words
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Labyrinth Capital

22 Jan, 12:31

Massive inflows for U.S. large-cap equity ETFs last week.

Bonds saw interest as well, while U.S. small caps were shunned most (with nearly $2 billion in outflows).

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Labyrinth Capital

22 Jan, 11:38

Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of US$1.6bn (~19 tonnes) last week, the largest weekly net inflows since October.

Gold buys will only continue especially from China as a safe-haven against Chinese bonds and a debt ridden economy that has had insufficient easing from the PBOC.

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Labyrinth Capital

22 Jan, 11:22

Derivative traders held the equivalent of roughly $34.6 billion in total longs that stand to benefit from further gains in the dollar as of January 14th, a nearly $1 billion increase from the week prior. This is the most since 2019.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

21 Jan, 17:50

SEC LAUNCHES CRYPTO TASK FORCE LED BY COMMISSIONER PEIRCE

SEC CRYPTO TASK TO ESTABLISH CLEAR REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
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Labyrinth Capital

09 Jan, 19:13

SCHMID WANTS FED TO SHRINK BALANCE SHEET FURTHER
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Labyrinth Capital

09 Jan, 19:12

FED'S SCHMID: FED WON'T LIKELY GET TO 2% INFLATION UNTIL 2026
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Labyrinth Capital

09 Jan, 18:43

FED'S BOWMAN: THE DECEMBER INTEREST RATE CUT SHOULD BE THE LAST.
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Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:35

FED MINUTES: VAST MAJORITY OF PARTICIPANTS SAW IT AS APPROPRIATE TO LOWER TARGET RANGE BY 25 BPS AT THE DECEMBER MEETING.
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Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:35

FED MINUTES: SOME PARTICIPANTS SAID THERE WAS MERIT IN KEEPING RATES UNCHANGED AT THAT MEETING, CITING HIGHER RISK OF PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED INFLATION.
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Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:35

FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS ANTICIPATED THAT LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN SOLID.
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Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:34

FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS INDICATED IF DATA CAME IN ABOUT AS EXPECTED, IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL POLICY STANCE.
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Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:34

FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS EXPECTED INFLATION TO KEEP MOVING TOWARD 2%, BUT EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TRADE AND IMMIGRATION POLICY CHANGES SUGGESTED THAT PROCESS COULD TAKE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
169
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 19:34

FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT THE FED WAS AT OR NEAR THE POINT AT WHICH IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO SLOW THE PACE OF EASING.
165
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 13:37

Unemployment Claims: 🟢 201k v 214k forecast.
179
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 13:16

ADP: 🔴 122k v 139k forecast

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
186
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 11:46

A stronger dollar sucks up global liquidity, largely from equities. The flow of liquidity starts with the highest concentration of speculation so BTC, then trickles down through assets.

BTC pull back isn’t much of a surprise when you recognise this.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
204
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 11:45

Will reiterate the above..read it again. From now to 20th Jan, anything Trump says in relation to tariffs likely to be bullish for $DXY and unprecedented because he speaks on the off occasion until he’s in office.

The market will constantly react and try to price in conditions related to trade deals, tax cuts and tariff regulations.

All hint to a stronger dollar.

This is dangerous for markets. DXY is reaching levels that, while the Fed continue QT, is unsustainable.

I would expect Trump and Fed to curb inflation expectations soon.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
227
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 11:41

🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: TRUMP CONSIDERING AN EMERGENCY DECLARATION FOR NEW TARIFF PROGRAM.

$DXY reflecting this strongly

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
280
Labyrinth Capital

08 Jan, 00:42

😉

$XRP

https://x.com/bgarlinghouse/status/1876783603603939438?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
270
Labyrinth Capital

07 Jan, 15:02

US ISM Services PMI (Dec): 54.1 vs. 53.5 exp. (prior 52.1)
260
Labyrinth Capital

07 Jan, 15:02

US JOLTS Job Openings (Nov): 8.098mln vs. 7.740mln exp. (prior 7.744mln)
254
Labyrinth Capital

07 Jan, 13:11

Investors are piling right back into large-cap equity ETFs, which took in nearly $23 billion to start off 2025.

Also strong interest in bonds, with bond funds taking in $2.7 billion and government funds taking in $2.89 billion.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
267
Labyrinth Capital

06 Jan, 15:49

https://youtu.be/k7jNlUqLydE
257
Labyrinth Capital

06 Dec, 13:31

Avg Hourly Earnings: 0.4%
164
Labyrinth Capital

06 Dec, 13:30

Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
163
Labyrinth Capital

06 Dec, 13:30

NFP: 227k
164
Labyrinth Capital

06 Dec, 07:29

NFP Forecast 1:30pm:

218k

Unemployment Rate: 4.1%

Avg Hourly Earnings: 0.3%

Would not be surprised if we see further weakening in the labor market. A flush in equities would be ideal, resulting in an end of year rally.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
196
Labyrinth Capital

05 Dec, 02:37

🚨BTC hits $100,000🚨

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
268
Labyrinth Capital

03 Dec, 17:42

Donald Trump reportedly picks pro-crypto Paul Atkins for SEC chair, to replace Gary Gensler.

Boolish

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
572
Labyrinth Capital

03 Dec, 16:23

South Korea Ends Shortest Martial Law In History.
281
Labyrinth Capital

03 Dec, 15:03

+ 372K
286
Labyrinth Capital

03 Dec, 15:02

JOLTS comes in stronger than expected with openings up to 7.744 vs 7.372 mil last month. Quits rate up as well. Suggests a healthy job market.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
289
Labyrinth Capital

03 Dec, 14:33

🚨 - SOUTH KOREA'S YOON NOTES HE DECLARES MARTIAL LAW.

Expect:

Gold bulls
Bond bulls
Equities have a reason to bleed in response

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
287
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 19:16

Insane 😎
325
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 15:51

XRP Volume:

3.5x of BTC on Coinbase

No.1 across all perps aggregated.

Likely to get diluted into other projects as fomo dies down.

Take something off the table if you’re a long term holder, the momentum won’t last forever.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
307
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 14:45

The importance of the neutral interest rate: https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1859599220077994086
267
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 13:45

How inflation is created: https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1861859522773442770
266
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 13:02

There have been record inflows into equities over the last four weeks, according to BofA, as investors experience FOMO during one of the best election years for the market in history.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
268
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 12:58

If you purchased and read our Q4 report you’ll have seen that the extensive in depth research paid off. Our forecasts were spot on.

Please PM me a quick review it would be much appreciated!

@ZakCrypto
254
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 12:34

Crypto Market Update (2nd December)

- XRP becomes world's third-largest crypto
- Spot crypto exchange volume hit $2.7T in November.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
247
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 12:20

As of October 31st, global net flows into ETFs hit $1.4T, eclipsing 2021's full-year record of $1.33T.

This figure seems set to rise as we head into the latter end of the quarter.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
257
Labyrinth Capital

02 Dec, 12:15

Key Events This Week.

Most volatile day: Friday US NFP.

Q4 Report: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
214
Labyrinth Capital

01 Dec, 19:18

At the start of the year, we published our Cryptocurrency Report.

It includes the 14 projects we were looking at in detail, with fact files on everything you need to know in terms of utility tokens.

You can still get it here:

https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/cryptocurrency-report-2024
238
Labyrinth Capital

01 Dec, 19:15

Utility coins have been the top earners in the past 30 days.

If you have been following us for the past 3 years you’ll know what we’ve advocated for. Our website tells all.

$XLM 466%
$ALGO 264%
$HBAR 263%
$XRP 238%
$SOLO 537%
$QNT 93%

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
251
Labyrinth Capital

29 Nov, 21:42

New York's crypto regulator nearing approval of Ripple-issued stablecoin.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
285
Labyrinth Capital

27 Nov, 15:03

October PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, RISES to 2.3%, in-line with expectations of 2.3%.

Core PCE inflation RISES, to 2.8%, in-line with expectations of 2.8%.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
344
Labyrinth Capital

21 Nov, 18:07

Crypto won
123
Labyrinth Capital

21 Nov, 18:04

🚨- Gary Gensler announces he is stepping down as SEC Chair.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
126
Labyrinth Capital

21 Nov, 14:08

Twitter 🧵 Thread on the Neutral Interest Rate.

Key to understanding. Why is keeping rates at these higher levels contradictory to an economy that is performing well and evidently leading to fewer rate cuts.

See below:

https://x.com/labyrinthmarket/status/1859599220077994086?s=46&t=sUb1Ue14tFwZ_zX-6H64Mg
171
Labyrinth Capital

20 Nov, 21:31

Nvidia, $NVDA, posts RECORD quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion, above expectations of $32.3 billion.

Nothings stopping this train

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
370
Labyrinth Capital

20 Nov, 00:03

BREAKING: Donald Trump to replace SEC chair Gary Gensler with pro-crypto Teresa Goody Guillen

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
498
Labyrinth Capital

19 Nov, 11:26

Foreign Ownership of U.S. Treasuries rises to an all-time high of $8.67 Trillion.

There is enough evidence out there to prove to you that the Dollar is here to stay.

See the tweet below to show how the BRICS is a false flag: https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1856443177026416830
303
Labyrinth Capital

19 Nov, 00:01

Equally, US. ETFs have seen the largest annual inflow in history of $913 Billion.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
275
Labyrinth Capital

18 Nov, 23:59

Cryptocurrency just saw the largest weekly inflow in history of more than $6 Billion.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
266
Labyrinth Capital

18 Nov, 20:14

🚨NEW Article Is LIVE:

"A Booming Market But Weak Economy"

In this article we dissected the raw data to show you that despite markets reaching all time highs, Americans are being gaslit and lied to, suffering in real time.

Be sure to like and share.
https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/a-booming-market-but-weak-economy-31b73cdfce24

https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1858604178920403315
243
Labyrinth Capital

18 Nov, 15:16

Labyrinth Capital pinned «My personal raw thoughts is that recent hot inflation data is a blip. However, have to acknowledge Trumps Tariffs acting as a perceived inflation threat towards the market for the November report. Could very well add fuel to the fire. Combine this with NFP…»
0
Labyrinth Capital

18 Nov, 15:11

Key Events This Week.

Most volatile day: Friday US, UK, EU PMI.

Q4 Report: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
274
Labyrinth Capital

16 Nov, 11:49

😎👊🏽🪐
325
Labyrinth Capital

15 Nov, 10:11

This morning at 7am, the UK’s GDP came in at -0.1%. Adds to the deflation narrative we support in the United Kingdom. Below forecast of 0.2% growth.
365
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:57

Powell: We have a lot of space to cut rates if economy weakens and we can be careful when reducing rates.
329
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:57

Powell: Labor market shows policy is restrictive but we are not sure how restrictive just yet.
316
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:54

Powell: In our current situation we feel policy is restrictive, and its moved pretty much how we hoped it would. We started the process of cutting rates towards neutral and need to be patient. If the labor market deteriorates we will need to ease faster. We think policy has long and variable lags and in this situation we need to be careful as we approach neutral. It may then be the case we slow the pace of cutting so we get this right,
313
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:52

Great presser from Powell here giving all the gems on how the economy functions. FYI this is the exact documents we review to draw up how to work with the Feds likely decision...

Powell: "The era where rates were incredibly low, for ex major EU countries had longer term debt yielding negative 30bps so rates were low and that's a problem for CB because we cant cut rates meaningfully before 0 and cutting rates is what we do to support the economy so we like having positive interest rates like we do now. "

"We published a whole literature on how to deal with IR stuck at 0 and you cant cut or support the economy. So we did lots of research and took a mainstream approach to promise to let inflation run a little high if it was running too low. The idea was if people believe inflation is high than it will be."

"20 years of low inflation ended as soon as we did this framework."

"The new framework will revolve around how to deal with the 0 lower bound now, especially now that interest rates are substantially higher than they were back then. "

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
297
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:30

Q: Would the Fed step in if there was a problem with issuance of treasuries?

Powell: If really important markets broke down, we set up facility's to backstop the markets and they didn't actually get used because just those facilities being there was credible enough to restore credibility for the markets to work.

Another important quote.
262
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:27

Q: Deficits and debt to get harder for the Fed to operate?

Powell: Not yet, But the US budget is on an unsustainable path. We have a large deficit and we know it has to be addressed.
261
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:21

Powell: "If people believe inflation will be higher it will be, if they believe itll come down then people who take prices in wages will make sure it comes down."

A key quote most will ignore! Do you see?
265
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:20

Why did the Fed cut by 50bps? Whos lying?

https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1857156327933464763
151
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:10

read again
160
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:07

Just like that...

TRADERS OF RATE FUTURES TRIM BETS ON FED RATE CUTS AFTER POWELL'S REMARKS.

FED DECEMBER RATE CUT STILL SEEN AS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.
170
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:07

Powell: Economy is not sending signal that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to cut rates
239
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:06

Powell: Moving policy over time toward neutral, policy path is not pre-set
244
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:05

Powell: Labor market is solid.
211
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:05

Powell: The Fed expects these rates to continue to fluctuate in recent ranges
248
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:04

Powell: The Fed doesnt need to hurry in its reduction of interest rates
245
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 20:04

Powell: I expect inflation come continue to come down toward 2% goal.
205
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 19:56

Powell speaks in 5 minutes.
186
Labyrinth Capital

14 Nov, 13:40

My personal raw thoughts is that recent hot inflation data is a blip. However, have to acknowledge Trumps Tariffs acting as a perceived inflation threat towards the market for the November report. Could very well add fuel to the fire. Combine this with NFP staying relatively stable and the Fed then have reason to keep rate cutting pace fairly slow. This keeps the neutral rate elevated and inflation expectations elevated also, falling within the framework that the Fed wish to operate in. This is something we have made clear for the past year.

Make sure you get your hands on the Q4 Report. This is the best way for you to understand the true macro landscape. Our publications promote a different approach to viewing the market, with focus on Central Bank liquidity and not just mainstream indicators. We combine liquidity with the Fed and Central Bank official framework, something very little economists talk about. https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words
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Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 13:35

By sector see above.

Manufacturing poised to be weaker.

August and September were revised lower by a total of -112,000 jobs.

Clear weakening in labor market reliant on government jobs.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
111
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:31

Bigggg miss
174
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:30

4.1% unemployment rate
176
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:30

0.4% hourly earnings.
178
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:30

No typo
180
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:30

😂😂
182
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:30

NFP: 12k
182
Labyrinth Capital

01 Nov, 12:20

NFP in 10 minutes:

Forecast: 106k.

Unemployment Rate:

Forecast 4.1%

Average hourly earnings:

Forecast 0.3%

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
195
Labyrinth Capital

31 Oct, 17:20

Reverse repo dumps $27BN to $201BN, lowest since May 2021.

Like clockwork.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
188
Labyrinth Capital

31 Oct, 12:30

US Core PCE: 0.3%

Forecast 0.3%
185
Labyrinth Capital

31 Oct, 11:02

.
191
Labyrinth Capital

31 Oct, 11:01

Further quotes:

US TREASURY: WE EXPECT TO BUY UP TO $30 BLN IN OFF-THE-RUN SECURITIES FOR LIQUIDITY SUPPORT.

US TREASURY: WE ANTICIPATE BUYING UP TO $22.5 BLN IN ONE-MONTH TO TWO-YEAR SECURITIES FOR CASH MANAGEMENT PURPOSES.

Again, this is the first time the Treasury has announced such a program since 2002. The first time this was announced was back in April, which marked the bottom in bonds (See $TLT or $ZB1!).
191
Labyrinth Capital

31 Oct, 10:53

🚨- US TREASURY: WE PLAN TO CONDUCT WEEKLY LIQUIDITY SUPPORT BUYBACKS OF UP TO $4 BLN PER OPERATION.

This will put downward pressure on bond yields.

Theres a Labyrinth Capital article for everything. : https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/bond-buybacks-everything-you-need-to-know-5b462b9964cb
184
Labyrinth Capital

30 Oct, 12:34

Advance GDP q/q 2.8% below forecast of 3%.
194
Labyrinth Capital

30 Oct, 12:32

ADP reported a job increase of 233K - well above expectations for the payroll number on Friday.

This is your regular reminder that ADP being private employment data, and nonfarm payrolls often not correlated.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
199
Labyrinth Capital

30 Oct, 09:44

Institutional Traders just sold the most amount of stocks last week in more than 9 years.

Fairly normal as we get further towards the end of the year. Considering the macro landscape, particularly the indecisiveness from the Fed, this adds to the likelihood of selling from big funds.

Once again, mentioned in the Labyrinth Capital Q4 Report.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
213
Labyrinth Capital

30 Oct, 09:24

BTC ATH whilst alts drag:

https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1851389008422588856
204
Labyrinth Capital

29 Oct, 17:41

Deeper in the report:

JOLTS layoffs rose to 1.833M in September, up from 1.668M prior and highest since January 2023.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
210
Labyrinth Capital

29 Oct, 14:47

Gold has made a new All Time High. The OGs in here will know we've been advocating for Gold since the inception of this channel.

Vital you protect your wealth. What does this chart scream to you?

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
230
Labyrinth Capital

28 Oct, 17:34

More active on Twitter from now on. Make sure you're following the official Labyrinth Capital account. https://x.com/LabyrinthMarket/status/1850616998449045617
66
Labyrinth Capital

28 Oct, 17:21

The Federal Reserve's emergency BTFP dropped by $7 billion this week, with only $59 billion remaining.

In 5 weeks BTFP will be at $0, pulling all remaining emergency liquidity away from struggling banks.

On the surface, this looks very bad right. Search BTFP through the channel youll know we've been talking about this for a long time.

However, we covered the Feds response to this in March.

See: https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/bank-failiures-are-coming-the-fed-cant-stop-it-d62557f76abc

The Fed is planning to enforce regulation which encourages banks to go to the discount window at least once a year. This will mitigate the type of crisis that the market is expecting here.
82
Labyrinth Capital

28 Oct, 14:55

Treasury yields have moved in a straight line higher since the “Fed pivot.”

+65 basis points in one month putting 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%.

Want to know why? See our latest article.

https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/why-fed-cuts-have-caused-rates-to-rise-40d645ff43c1
103
Labyrinth Capital

28 Oct, 09:30

Labyrinth Capital pinned «📣🚨We have today published the Q4 report as we close out 2024. This is a 6800 word report, 27 pages long, including breakdowns for catalysts in the upcoming quarter. The topics we detail: - Global Liquidity Update / Backdrop. - The Feds approach - Central…»
0
Labyrinth Capital

28 Oct, 07:37

In the recently published Q4 report, we covered the US Election also. This is happening on November 5th (2 weeks).

Ensure you're kept in the loop alongside the Global Liquidity backdrop!

https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words
133
Labyrinth Capital

27 Oct, 22:20

Key Events This Week.

Most volatile day: Friday US Non-Farm Payroll.

$DXY weekly cloee forecast in response to news: 🔴

Q4 Report: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
154
Labyrinth Capital

27 Oct, 19:13

🚨📣New Article is Live:

"Why Fed Cuts Have Caused Rates To Rise"

In this article we covered why the recent Fed 50bps cut has resulted in other debt instruments such as mortgage rates and treasury yields to rise instead.

Be sure to like and share.

https://medium.com/@LabyrinthCapital/why-fed-cuts-have-caused-rates-to-rise-40d645ff43c1
144
Labyrinth Capital

24 Oct, 12:30

Unemployment Claims: 227k

Forecast: 243k
Prior: 241k

#Q4watch

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
250
Labyrinth Capital

22 Oct, 19:48

Key Events This Week.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
319
Labyrinth Capital

22 Oct, 16:40

For transparency. We have audited the price for the remaining parts of the Q. Was travelling in the first half wanted it to be done properly. Any queries pm me.
290
Labyrinth Capital

22 Oct, 16:33

📣🚨We have today published the Q4 report as we close out 2024.

This is a 6800 word report, 27 pages long, including breakdowns for catalysts in the upcoming quarter.

The topics we detail:

- Global Liquidity Update / Backdrop.
- The Feds approach
- Central Bank expectations
- China's path & stimulus program
- Labour Market expectations
- Deflation in the US
- US Equities Expectations
- Commodities and Fixed Income Expectations
- Crypto Expectations
- Where to position yourself for Q4

This report is for the investor, student, economist who wishes to understand the backdrop more in depth.

We do not currently offer any paid services so this is the best way to learn about the real economy whilst also supporting the channel.

Get the Q4 report here: https://labyrinthcapital.co.uk/financial-reports/p/2024q4report6800words
280
Labyrinth Capital

22 Oct, 16:32

We published our Q3 report in July which aided investors, students and economists alike in identifying the trends in the market and being in-line with the liquidity backdrop.

Above are just a few screenshots of what the layout of our quarterly reports entail.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
244
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 15:30

Two-thirds of the 34 major central banks are already in easing mode versus 9% at the lows in July-2023.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
352
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 13:30

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY RESTRICTIVE.
326
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:59

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: LATEST DATA POINTS TO MORE SLUGGISH GROWTH.
334
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:59

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: INCOMING DATA SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.
325
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:34

Big beat across the board. Traders now price in less Fed Easing after retail sales.

See how easy it is?

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
365
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:30

US Retail Sales m/m up to. 0.4% from 0.3% forecast.

Core Retail Sales 0.5% from 0.1% forecast.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
330
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:20

TRADERS HOLD ECB RATE-CUT BETS STEADY, SEE 25BPS IN DECEMBER

Lagarde speaks at 1:45pm to cover QnA and conference.

As we arrive at the inflection point with monetary policy, this is where the decision by the Central Banks becomes more significant, so watching communication and guidance from members is more important than it would usually be.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
250
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:17

ECB: INFLATION EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BEFORE DECLINING TO TARGET

ECB: DISINFLATIONARY PROCESS IS WELL ON TRACK
245
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:17

ECB WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A DATA-DEPENDENT AND MEETING-BY-MEETING APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL AND DURATION

*ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH

*ECB TO KEEP RATES SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED

Reminder, as per the mandate from every Central Bank that most people dont read, the communication is more important than the rate decision itself

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
223
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 12:16

EUROZONE ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION (OCT) ACTUAL: 3.40% VS 3.65% PREVIOUS; EST 3.40%

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
209
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 11:57

At 1:15pm today, ECB should ease policy further and cut key interest rate by 25bps.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
242
Labyrinth Capital

17 Oct, 11:27

Compared to past four expansions, current one is still relatively young, especially when looking at two most recent expansions that started in 2009 and 1991.

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
227
Labyrinth Capital

16 Oct, 08:16

We say “real” Fed easing because a reminder until we get below neutral, the $USD is still in restrictive territory.

Other Central Banks are guiding markets to cycles below their neutral weakening each of their respective domestic currencies against the dollar (for now).

labyrinthcapital.co.uk
246

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