Pick: Nikola Jokic (DEN Nuggets)
Bet: Under 8.5 assists
Odds: @1.80
Stake: 5/10
Bookies: bet365, pinnacle
The key aspect of this pick is the Timberwolvesโ single coverage defense, which will likely leave Jokic 1-on-1 with Gobert. Because of this, I donโt expect a high volume of assists from Jokic, unlike what we might see in matchups against teams like the Thunder and Nets.
The Timberwolvesโ defense is quite strong and reliable in single coverage, especially on the perimeter, so I donโt expect a high hit rate or a significant number of potential assists for Jokic.
Last season, the Timberwolves allowed the third-fewest assists overall. This season, although itโs a small sample, they currently allow the second-fewest assists over their first four games.
Last season, Jokic went under this assist line in 8 out of 11 (73%) matchups against the Timberwolves, with two overs just barely reaching 9 assists.
Itโs also worth noting that last season, Jokic recorded his lowest number of potential assists specifically against Minnesota.
The Nuggets have looked rough to start this season, and we canโt expect their shooting percentages to be high, especially at one of the toughest away game in the league.