Devang Mehra, CFTe

The gain in dollar still looks short term as being shown by the relative strength chart in the lower panel which shows equities should still outperform dollar until structure changes.

What am I looking at? The Dollar Index. That’s a significant headwind for India. With China finally cooling off (positive for India) and Crude cooling off from 6500 (another positive as it reduces our import bill), dollar offers a big headwind as dollar surging always has been a concern for withdrawal of funds from emerging markets.

Peter Hamilton and Charles Dow stressed that, in order for the primary trend to be valid, both the Industrial Average and the Rail Average (now the transportation) must confirm each other. If one average records a new high or new low, then the other must soon follow for a Dow Theory signal to be considered valid.
PS: Why the rails? There is no doubt that today's economy is very different; consequently, the makeup of the DJTA has changed to favor the airlines. However, there is still some credibility in using the DJTA to confirm movements in the DJIA. Transport stocks are much more dependent on the economic environment than the average stock and will likely foreshadow economic growth.

“Small Caps are considered to be a gauge of investors risk appetite as well as generally a leading indicator for the broader averages. When large caps lag and Russel shines, it is often considered by many as a sign that investors are willing to take more risk and if that is the case, large caps generally follow.”

Russel 2000 (Small Cap)

Dow Jones Transportation Average

US Markets snapshot in 2 charts

Never give up on your dreams…
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBBi7PhJfmn/?igsh=ZWxzemlsY3dwdjc4

Hope you’re all keeping well! For all those who couldn’t attend, let’s do an online presentation of our workshop at Christ University, Bangalore conducted earlier this week. Just comment “Workshop” and I shall make sure you don’t miss it. Let’s keep growing together!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DA-aqUpOhhb/?igsh=cDhvazRqbnF2dHdr

Here are some snippets from lecture at Christ University, Bangalore!
https://www.instagram.com/stories/devangmehra/3475661863851649440?igsh=NXh2ajR2cWN6cXAw

We are more than excited to be delivering an offline workshop at Christ University, Bangalore on Wednesday. Unfortunately, it is completely sold out.
Nonetheless, the team would love to meet all the Bangalore community tomorrow evening. Get in touch with +919687048040 for more details on the meet up! Cheers xx

The “dot plot” signals interest rate down to 4.25 to 4.5% by the end of the year (2 add'l cuts likely). Vote today was 11 in favor and 1 against

Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points.

US markets will be closed today

Also, first time we are seeing accumulation of puts throughout the day. Over the last few days, markets used to sell off in the last 1 hour. Today, since morning calls have been under pressure and puts are holding their ground. Let’s see how we close today.

Looks like today markets are going to give a lower closing for the first time after approximately 11 days.

Reliance AGM at 2 pm today

Banter for tonight 😂