GOLDZILLA FX : Noel's Treasury Tactics

Top 5 Most Volatile News Reports That Could Rock the Markets

1. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):

- U.S. job data report. 📉
- First Friday of the month. 🗓
- Positive boosts USD and negative weakens it. 💵
- Expect big currency moves. 💥

2. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):

- U.S. central bank actions. 💱
- Interest rate decisions impact USD 💰

3. Trade Balance:

- Trade data. 🗺
- Surpluses strengthen the currency. ↗️
- It can cause market jolts. ⚡️

4. Consumer Price Index (CPI):

- Measures price changes. 📈
- High inflation weakens the currency. V
- Can cause currency swings. 🔄

5. Retail Sales:

- Consumer spending data. 🛒
- Good sales signal growth. 📈
- Unexpected changes can move currencies 💣

Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Technical Analysis VS Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis:

- Focuses on past price movements and charts. 📊
- Uses patterns and indicators for predictions. 📉
- Short to medium-term trading. ⏳

Fundamental Analysis:

- Analyzes financial health (earnings, revenue). 💰
- Considers industry trends. 📈
- Long-term investing. 📅

Traders and investors choose based on their style and goals. 🎳

Rejection Block (RB)

This pattern is highlighted by a long wick on the candlestick, which shows that price was pushed back from a key level, suggesting a potential reversal.

Red RBs signal selling pressure at resistance levels, while green RBs indicate buying pressure at support levels.

This pattern is useful for traders to identify possible entry or exit points based on the market's inability to sustain a move beyond these crucial price zones.

Break of Structure (BO)

Prices often follow a trend, going up or down in a certain way.

When prices suddenly change direction by forming a new high (in a downtrend) or a new low (in an uptrend), it's called a break of structure.

It signals a potential trend reversal, and traders pay attention to these points for trading decisions.

Think of it as a "break" in the usual price movement, which can indicate a shift in market direction.

Order Block (OB)

Bullish Order Block 📈
- Last down candle before an up move.
- Potential support area for buyers.

Bearish Order Block 📉
- Last up a candle before a down move.
- Potential resistance area for sellers.

Order blocks are used by traders to identify key areas where significant buying or selling activity can cause price reversals, helping in making informed trading decisions.

Fair Value Gap

Occurs when the current exchange rate of a currency pair deviates significantly from what is considered a reasonable or fair value. In simple terms:

Fair Value Gap Explained:

- Fair Value: Estimated currency value based on economic factors
- Gap: Significant deviation from this value

Traders watch for gaps to spot overvalued or undervalued currencies. These gaps might present trading opportunities but come with risks ⚠️

A Major Trendline is established using an extensive timeframe to delineate the primary trajectory of the market.

Conversely, a Minor Trendline is applied within a narrower timeframe to facilitate accurate entry points, thereby reducing potential market exposure and enhancing decision-making precision.

Let's continue for the next lesson. ✍️

TAP TAP EMOJI IF YOU READY

The RBS (Resistance turned into Support) trendline is drawn to indicate a price retest or retrace after a breakout.

Here's how to draw this trendline:

1. Draw a WHITE line for the Resistance Trendline 📈

2. Mark the RETEST area with a RED circle 🔴

3. After a breakout, the WHITE line becomes Support ⬇️

4. Enter after the price touches the Support 💡

This strategy helps you enter trades at a good point post-breakout! 🚀

The SBR (Support turned into Resistance) trendline is drawn to indicate a price retest or retrace after a breakout.

Here's how to draw this trendline:

1. Draw a WHITE line as Trendline Support from one LOW to another LOW. 🖊

2. Mark the Retest/Retrace area with a RED box. 🔴

3. The WHITE line changes to Resistance after a breakout. 🔄

4. Look for entry after the RED circle, where the price touches the new Resistance. 🎯

This strategy helps enter trades at favourable points post-breakout, leveraging the former Support as Resistance.

TRENDLINE RESISTANCE (DOWNTREND)

1. 📉 Draw from a higher high to a lower high.

2. ✔️ Ensure 2-3 significant touches for confirmation.

3. 🖋 Connect the candle shadows (lower wicks) to accurately represent the downtrend.

TRENDLINE SUPPORT (UPTREND)

1. 📉 Draw from a lower low to a higher low.

2. ✔️ Ensure 2-3 significant touches for confirmation.

3. 🖋 Connect the candle shadows (upper wicks) to capture price movement accurately.

Step 1 (Major Trendline):

- Draw on larger timeframes based on your method:

- 🕒 M30/M15 for scalping
- 📆 D1 for intraday
- 📅 W1/MN for swing trading

Step 2 (Minor Trendline):

- Draw on smaller timeframes for entry points:

- ⏱ M1/M5 for scalping
- ⏳ H1 for intraday
- 📆 D1 for swing trading

Step 3 (SNR - Support and Resistance):

- ⏳ Wait in the Trendline and SNR zone for favorable entry opportunities based on price action.

How to Draw a Trendline:

1. 📈 Resistance: Draw from one HIGH point to another HIGH.

2. 📉 Support: Draw from one LOW point to another LOW.

For Risk and Floating:

- Body to Body: Higher risk, larger floating losses.
- Shadow to Shadow: Lower risk, smaller floating losses.

Types of Trendlines:

Major Trendline: 📅 Created on Monthly, Weekly, Daily, H4 timeframes.

Minor Trendline: ⏳ Created on H1 and lower timeframes.

How to Draw Trendlines:

- ✏️ Body-to-Body
- ✏️ Body-to-Shadow

Uptrend/Support Trendlines:
- Draw from two rising lowest points.

Downtrend/Resistance Trendlines:
- Draw from two falling highest points.

🔍 The method depends on each trader's "sweet spot" for confirmation.

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Trend Line (TL)

📉 A Trendline is a line used to indicate a trend, whether it is an uptrend or a downtrend.

Uptrend Trendline:

📈 Identifying the direction of the market (Uptrend)
🔍 Searching for BUY opportunities (Continuation)

Downtrend Trendline:

📉 Identifying the direction of the market (Downtrend)
🔍 Searching for SELL opportunities (Continuation)

🔗 Trendlines are often used as reference levels for market movements, and some traders use them as a confirmation for market entry.

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When the price breaks support, here's what you do:

1. ⚠️ Acknowledge the support line was breached.

2. ⏳ Wait for a pullback to consider a potential selling entry.

3. 🔄 Recognize that the former support line may now act as a new resistance level (SBR), indicating potential future price barriers.

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When the price breaks resistance, here's what you do:

1. 👀 Recognize the existence of a resistance line.

2. 📈 Note the breakout above that resistance.

3. ⏳ Wait for a pullback to consider a potential buying entry.

4. 🔄 Understand that the former resistance line may now act as a new support (RBS), suggesting potential future price support.

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Identifying Breakouts or "Causes" of Structure Changes

🔗 Strong Support and Resistance (S&R): These are key price levels where price movement tends to reverse or pause.

What happens when a Resistance/Support is broken?
⚡️ It signals that the market may want to change the trend or structure.

📊 Strong Resistance becomes Support and forms a Key Level (RBS).

Basic Breakout Formula:
🚨 Breakout ➡️⏳ Pullback ➡️💼 Entry

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