News Alerts

Breadth was horrid today. The S&P 500 was only down 18 bps but the A/D line was -338 with just 81 stocks in the green. The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSP fell 0.85% and the small-cap Russell 2,000 $IWM fell 1.57%

BespokeInvest

Of the 35 times the Fed has cut rates since 1994, the increase in the 10-year yield after the most recent cut ranks as the third largest.

BespokeInvest

Nike $NKE and the NBA just announced a 12 year extension of their global outfitting, merchandising, marketing and content partnership

*NVIDIA CROSSES $3.5 TRILLION MARKET CAP FOR FIRST TIME $NVDA

*NVIDIA NOW JUST $70B AWAY FROM REPLACING APPLE AS MOST VALUABLE COMPANY ON EARTH

Junk bonds have been the best performing sector in the bond market this year as credit spreads have tightened to their lowest levels since 2007

Charlie Bilello

GDPNow from ⁦@AtlantaFed⁩ now up to +3.4% (q/q ann.) for 3Q2024 … housing still the only component subtracting from growth; consumption’s contribution was boosted in most recent update

Liz Ann Sonders

Gold spot price

FT Alphaville

Europe's STOXX 600 is unchanged over the last five months

BespokeInvest

ASML, leading supplier of advanced lithography equipment for making semiconductors lowered 2025 guidance today

GLOBAL CHIP STOCKS SHED $420 BILLION TODAY AS ASML SHOCK HALTS REBOUND - Bloomberg

According to the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, the mean probability of missing a debt payment hit the highest level since the onset of the pandemic. For those making over $100K, it was the highest delinquency probability since September 2014.

BespokeInvest

Today's Economic Indicators Results

CPI (MoM): 0.2% vs 0.1% est. 🟢
CPI (YoY): 2.4% vs 2.3% est. 🟢
Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% vs 0.2% est.🟢
Core CPI (YoY): 3.3% vs 3.2% est.🟢
Initial Jobless Claims: 258k vs 230k est.🔴
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1861k vs 1830k est.🔴

Fed's Williams expects the economy to allow for further rate cuts, with the pace and size determined by economic data. He views the economy as solid, with a strong labor market. The recent rate cut should maintain economic strength, and he forecasts inflation to decrease to 2.25% this year and close to 2% by 2025. GDP is expected to be between 2.25%-2.5% in 2024, averaging 2.25% over the next two years. Unemployment is projected to be around 4.25% this year and in 2025, with the job market not expected to drive inflation.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2024
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in August 2024 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $78.9 billion in July (revised) to $70.4 billion in August, as exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $8.4 billion in August to $94.9 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in August to $24.4 billion. Full Text

Published October 08, 2024 at 05:30AM
Read more at bea.gov

For the first time since 2005, we have a sub-900mb hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. Extrapolated surface pressure of 898.6mb.

Joins an elite list of storms. The only Atlantic tropical cyclones with a central pressure below 900mb are Allen (1980), Rita (2005), Labor Day (1935), Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).

This week’s data dump includes CPI on Thursday

Software price to sales is back to the same levels it was at back in 2021. Something to keep an eye on

BespokeInvest

Sentiment:

The 12-month average of AAII bull/bear sentiment is at its highest level since the mid-aughts. Pre-Financial Crisis it was routinely here. Is the trust in markets finally back?

BespokeInvest

Whenever the percentage of S&P 500 Utility sector stocks trading within 5% of a 252-day high surpassed 95%, the extreme overbought condition was likely to mark the end of a favorable period for the utility sector

Dean Christians