Kashmir Weather

Weather Update

A weak Western Disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir from the evening of October 23rd through October 24th. This system may bring light snowfall to the higher elevations of North Kashmir, Ganderbal, and Anantnag districts. Snowfall is also likely at Phase 2 in Gulmarg and Zojila Pass in Sonamarg.

In the plains, the weather is expected to remain largely dry, though a brief spell of rain in some areas cannot be ruled out.

There is also a possibility of gusty winds.

Nothing significant is expected in Jammu region.

In Ladakh, there is also a chance of light snowfall in a few spots, especially in Kargil district.

There have been several reports circulating about potential heavy snowfall in Kashmir, even suggesting it could affect the plains. However, it is important to clarify that, as of now, no such forecast is there. These rumors are causing unnecessary panic, especially among apple farmers who are already struggling with low production this year.

While Western Disturbances are expected to approach around or after October 23, they are unlikely to bring snowfall to the plains. If the forecast changes, any significant updates will be shared in due course. For now, there is no reason to panic.

In the light of recent rumours, I want to clarify that there is no forecast of snowfall in plains during the next 10 days.

The chances are less than 0%.

Except for a shower (possibility very less around 16 - 17 Oct), there is no snowfall forecast for higher reaches as well.

Mostly dry weather will continue to dominate.

Jhelum is going to see a further decline in its water level. Water scarcity may arise in a few areas.

As promised, the weather remained on every political party's side during the election campaigns.
The official results may be due on October 8th, but the weather has already announced its verdict, delivering an early victory to the Sheen & Rued Party.

A fresh weak Western Disturbance is going to affect Jammu and Kashmir on 08th & 09th October. As a result, a rain shower/spell is expected in some parts of the UT with snow in higher elevations. However, for the most part, dry weather is likely to prevail.

Weather Update for the next 10 days

05 October:
Mostly dry weather. A few areas may receive a shower towards late afternoon/evening.

06 October:
Mostly dry weather. One or two spots may receive a short shower.

07 October:
Mostly dry weather.

08 October:
Mostly dry weather. A few spots may receive a short shower.

09 - 10 October:
Mostly dry weather will prevail. However, some areas may receive a short rain spell (50% chance).

11 - 14 October:
Mostly dry weather is expected.

Note:
1. The water level of streams and rivers is expected to fall further.
2. There will be a decrease in day and night temperatures in the coming days.

Monsoon Season Ends, Jammu and Kashmir Receives 26% Deficit Rainfall

This 26% is a huge figure.

Between June 01 & September 30, Jammu and Kashmir received just 408.5 mm of rainfall against the normal 549.1 mm.

Srinagar recorded a rainfall deficit of 30%.

Except Pulwama district which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13%, the other districts in south Kashmir received below normal rainfall in the range of -50 to -80%. Similar was the case in other districts of Kashmir Valley.

Baramulla was the only district in Kashmir to receive normal rainfall in the positive category (1% above normal)

Samba received above normal rainfall of 13% and was the best performing district. Jammu received exact normal rainfall as it should have.

Rest all districts in Jammu region received below normal rainfall in the range of -15 to -76%.

Meanwhile, Ladakh received surplus rainfall of 17%. Kargil with 8% surplus and Leh with 18%.

Very light snowfall ~ 1 cm recorded at Affarwat Top. Similar reports of snowfall from Sunshine Peak (1cm) and higher reaches of Sonamarg (2cm).

In case of a rain spell during the night. Higher reaches above 4000 m may receive a couple of inches of snow.

Weather Update

Today, generally cloudy weather is expected across Jammu and Kashmir, with the possibility of a rain spell in some parts.
Sunny break in between is also possible in a few areas.

Towards night/early morning tomorrow, another rain spell is expected to affect many parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Heavy intensity showers can't be ruled out in Jammu plains.

Improvement in weather is expected from tomorrow morning/afternoon onwards.

Thereafter, mostly dry weather is expected until 04 October, with a significant fall in night temperatures.

Weather Update for the next 7 days

25th Sept:
Dry & Sunny weather is expected.A short shower possible in a few spots.

26th Sept:
Mostly dry weather is expected. A few parts of Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in Jammu region may receive a short rain shower/spell. For Jammu plains, highest probability towards morning. For higher areas in Jammu region and Kashmir, highest probability towards afternoon and evening.

27th Sept:
Possibility of rainfall in many to most parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Intense showers/cloudbursts can't be ruled out. Rainfall isn't expected throughout the day.

28th Sept:
Light to moderate rain showers possible in some parts of Jammu and Kashmir, especially in Jammu region towards morning.
There is also a possibility that weather will improve from afternoon onwards with sunshine.

29th Sept:
Generally dry weather. A few spots may receive a brief shower/spell.

30th Sept:
Mostly dry weather. A few spots may receive a shower.

01 - 04 Oct:
Dry & sunny weather is expected.

Note:
1. Hailstorm can also affect a few areas.
2. Highest possibility of rainfall is on 27th September.
3. There is a possibility of light snowfall over extreme higher reaches. Light snowfall chances over Affarwat & Zojila Pass are around 50%.

At 33.2°C, Qazigund breaks its all previous records. This is the highest temperature ever recorded in Qazigund in September. Today's temperature was 7.6°C above normal.

Meanwhile, parts of Kashmir Valley are witnessing a severe heatwave with day and night temperatures 5 - 8°C above normal.

Severe Heatwave hits parts of Kashmir, Srinagar records all-time 2nd highest September temperature

Today's maximum in Srinagar: 33.8°C
All-time Highest: 35.0°C on 18 Sept 1934
33.8°C recorded on 01 Sept 1970 as well.
Overall, this is the 2nd all-time highest temperature in the month of September.
Departure from Normal: 6.4°C


Today's maximum in Qazigund: 32.8°C
This is the highest September temperature ever recorded in Qazigund.
However, 32.8°C was recorded on 12 Sept 2019 & 08 Sept 1988 as well.
Departure from Normal: 6.5°C

Weather Update for the next 24 hrs

Today, weather will stay generally cloudy in many parts of Kashmir. Sunny breaks are expected over some parts of north Kashmir, especially Kupwara.

Light to moderate snow showers are possible over some parts of Kargil & Leh districts, along with extreme higher reaches of south Kashmir & Ganderbal district.

A couple of rain showers can also occur over some parts of Jammu region (highest chances for Doda & Kishtwar districts) and Kashmir valley (highest chances for parts of south Kashmir).

Mostly dry weather is expected between 20 - 25 September.

Weather Update

Due to the effect of a weak Western Disturbance, as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies, a spell of rain or a shower is expected in some parts of Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hrs. Its impact will be more over Jammu plains than other parts.

Note: Rain shower/spell is expected in some areas only. Dry weather will continue to prevail for rest of the places.

Gusty winds can also occur in a few spots.

A deep depression is expected to move toward central and northern India in the coming days. However, the presence of a jet stream combined with a weak Western Disturbance will prevent this low-pressure system from advancing further north, causing it to stall over parts of Uttar Pradesh. Western Disturbances are so powerful that they can redirect even severe cyclones by 180° or dissipate a cyclone system within a single day.

In this case, the Western Disturbance will block the low-pressure system's northward progression. Otherwise, the monsoon might have remained active in Jammu and Kashmir, bringing heavy rainfall to Jammu plains.

With elections on the horizon in Jammu and Kashmir, political parties and independent candidates are preparing for a series of rallies. While the outcome remains a mystery, one thing is clear: the weather is on everyone’s side.

Forecasts indicate mostly dry conditions across Jammu and Kashmir for the next 15 - 20 days, ensuring that the favorable weather will aid in the smooth execution of these political events and provide an ideal setting for engaging with voters.

Regards: Kashmir Weather

Jammu and Kashmir Set for Monsoon Exit Two Weeks Ahead of Schedule

The southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw from Jammu and Kashmir now as weather forecasts show no significant weather activity in the next 15 days. However, a few spots could still experience a brief shower during this period.

The criteria established by the IMD for declaring the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon from northwest India include a cessation of rainfall for five consecutive days, a considerable decrease in moisture levels, and the development of an anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere. All of these conditions are expected to be met in the coming days.

The normal timeline for monsoon to withdraw from Jammu and Kashmir falls on September 22.

Regards: Kashmir Weather

Weather Update

05 Sept: Mostly dry and sunny weather is expected. Thundershower clouds can develop towards late afternoon in some areas. A short duration heavy shower can't be ruled out.

06 Sept: Morning monsoon showers can occur in some areas of Jammu region.
With mostly dry weather, a brief thundershower can occur in some areas of Kashmir towards late afternoon.

07 Sept: A morning monsoon shower can occur in a few spots in Jammu region.
Mostly dry weather is expected to dominate in Kashmir. A short duration thundershower can't be ruled out in a few spots towards late afternoon.

08 - 16 Sept: Mostly dry and sunny weather is expected. A short duration thundershower can't be ruled out in a few spots.

Forecast Insights: Kashmir Weather

SHOPIAN POLICE ISSUED HELPLINE NUMBERS IN VIEW OF ADVERSE WEATHER
Shopian Police established emergency helpline Service to facilitate the general public to seek help during an emergency arising due to inclement weather.
In case of any emergency the general public can contact on below mentioned cell numbers 24x7.

PCR Shopian:- 9596768831, 9596768856, 01933261891.

Dysp Hqrs Shopian:-9596768862,

DySP Imamsahib:-9596768825.

SDPO Zainapora:-889377005.

SHO Shopian:- 9596768826.

SHO Keller:- 9596768828.

SHO Heerpora:-9596768829.

SHO Imamsahib:-9596768853.

SHO Zainapora:-9596768827.

DO wachi :- 9596768830,

DO Keegam :-9596768852.

DO Hermain :-9906533045.

DO Berthipora:-6005099941.

DO Turkwangam:-7889805990.

DO saidpora:- 7051833580.

Reports indicate that a cloudburst near the Sports Stadium in Banihal has resulted in the death of a person namely Zahir Ahmed (an excavator helper) s/o Ab Qayoom and resident of Manjoos Srachi Khari.

Cyclone-Like Winds Sweep Through Kulgam, Gusts Reach 81 km/h

This afternoon, Kulgam was hit by powerful wind gusts that reached speeds of up to 81 km/h, as recorded by an Automatic Weather Station in the area.

Such wind speeds fall within the range associated with a Cyclonic Storm, which is characterized by 3-minute sustained wind speeds between 63 and 87 km/h.

There is also a possibility that wind gusts in certain parts of Kulgam may have even exceeded 90 km/h, near a Severe Cyclonic Storm category, which is defined by 3-minute sustained wind speeds between 89 and 117 km/h.

Although the sustained winds may not have reached cyclone levels, the wind gusts highlight their intensity.

Regards: Kashmir Weather