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USD/CAD aims to break above 1.3600 on upbeat US job data for September.

Traders see the Fed reducing interest rates gradually.

The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure despite the Oil price rising to a fresh five-week high.

#market_updates

EUR/JPY drops sharply to near 162.70 as swelling ECB rate cut bets weigh on the Euro.

ECB Villeroy warned about rising risks of Eurozone economic slowdown.

Middle East tensions led to higher safe flows in favor of the Japanese Yen.

#market_updates

UOB Group analysts suggest that the Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to decline further, with the potential to break below the 0.6750 level.

In the short term, AUD is expected to trade sideways within a range of 0.6785 to 0.6825, as there hasn't been a significant increase in downward momentum.

Over the next 1-3 weeks, a continued decline is anticipated due to increasing momentum, with a strong resistance level now at 0.6855. The analysts had previously expected AUD to stay in a range but now see a higher likelihood of further weakening.

The recent US jobs report has caused markets to align with the Federal Reserve's Dot Plot projections, which anticipate 25 basis point cuts in November and December. There’s little expectation of a dovish shift until late October when new economic data is released.

Inflation data (CPI, PPI) this week isn’t expected to alter the Fed's stance, with core CPI likely slowing to 0.2% month-on-month. The idea of a dovish Fed has faded, and central banks in Europe, the UK, and Japan have also shown dovish signals.

US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to remain around 103.0 by the end of October.

Pound Sterling Pressured by Middle East Tensions and Waning Fed Rate Cut Bets

The Pound struggles near 1.3100 against the US Dollar, impacted by rising Middle East geopolitical risks and fading hopes of a large Fed rate cut.

Key Points:

Middle East Tensions: Iran-Israel conflict heightens uncertainty, boosting oil prices and hurting risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound.

Bank of England Signals: Governor Bailey suggests rate cuts, but Chief Economist Pill prefers a cautious approach, fueling market confusion.

US Dollar Strength: Strong US Dollar supported by September’s positive Nonfarm Payrolls data, highlighting payroll growth and wage hikes.


Technical Analysis:

Resistance: 1.3110 (50-day EMA); 1.3234 (20-day EMA).

Support: 1.3000 (psychological support).


Outlook:
Failure to stay above 1.3100 risks further losses, with 1.3000 as the next support. A recovery above 1.3234 could signal a bullish move. Watch Thursday’s US CPI data for additional market drivers.

USD/CAD draws support from a modest downtick in Oil prices and a bullish USD.

Reduced bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut next month continue to benefit the buck.

Middle East tensions act as a tailwind for the Loonie and cap gains for the major.

#market_updates

EUR/USD Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair has turned bearish, breaking below 1.1080 and signaling potential further declines.

Key Technical Indicators:

4-hour Chart:

The pair broke a key bullish trend line at 1.1145 and is now trading below the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.



Resistance Levels:

1.1080: Immediate resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1208 to 1.0950 move.

1.1145: The next major resistance.

1.1200-1.1250: If the pair clears 1.1145, further gains toward these levels are possible.


Support Levels:

1.0950: Immediate support.

1.0920: A break below this level could accelerate the downtrend.

1.0840: Key lower support in a bearish scenario.


Outlook:

As long as EUR/USD remains below 1.1080, it is expected to stay under bearish pressure. A move below 1.0920 could open the door to deeper declines. However, recovery above 1.1080 might trigger a test of 1.1145 and higher.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped to around $2,650 in Monday's early Asian session, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses. The stronger US Dollar, driven by better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls data for September (254,000 vs. 159,000 in August), is putting pressure on gold. The US unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, dampening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

While the stronger USD weighs on gold, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

AUD/USD trades in positive territory around 0.6805 in Monday’s early Asian session.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls came in stronger than expectations in September.

Middle East geopolitical risks might weigh on the Aussie, but a hawkish RBA could cap its downside.

#market_updates

Hello, traders! A fresh week brings new challenges and chances. Stay focused and trust your skills.

#economic_calendar

This event may affect the market on 7 October.

The USD/PHP currency pair has been showing signs of a strong rally, breaking above the 56.20 PHP level and aiming for further gains. Despite the Federal Reserve's drastic rate cuts, which typically weaken the US dollar, the rally indicates a potential shift. The Philippine peso has benefited from the perception that its economy may grow faster than the US. However, the pair remains influenced by global economic conditions, with traders weighing whether to invest in the Philippines or opt for safer US Treasury markets.

Technically, the pair is nearing a resistance at 56.50 PHP, coinciding with the 50-day EMA. A break above this level would likely push the US dollar higher, possibly causing emerging market currencies to weaken. Conversely, if the pair declines, it could signal a "risk on" sentiment, favoring riskier assets like the Philippine peso. Caution is advised for traders due to the volatile nature of this pair.

The Pound Sterling slumps to near 1.3070 against the US Dollar after upbeat US NFP report for September.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps in November has waned.

BoE’s Bailey emphasized the need to cut interest rates aggressively.

#market_updates

US Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:

The DXY has shown a strong recovery, with bullish momentum supported by technical signals. Upcoming US Jobs data will likely impact the next move.

Key Technical Indicators:

55-day SMA:

The 55-day SMA at 102.05 is the first major resistance. A break above this would confirm further bullish momentum.


100-day and 200-day SMAs:

Resistance levels are found at the 100-day SMA (103.36) and the 200-day SMA (103.75).



Resistance Levels:

103.18 is the next significant resistance.

Above that, the 103.99-104.00 area is pivotal and could cap near-term gains.


Support Levels:

100.62 is now key support.

If the index drops, watch for 100.16 (2024 low) and 99.58 (July 2023 low) as further support.


Outlook:
DXY remains bullish while above 100.62. A breakout past 102.05 could lead to further gains toward 103.18 and 104.00. Failure to hold above current levels may trigger a retest of 100.16 and lower.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 254K in September, surpassing the 147K forecast, while the Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, as per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on Friday.

In response to this data, the US Dollar gained strength against its major counterparts.

Take advantage of key economic events. Start learning how to trade forex today!

#USD #NonFarmPayroll #NFP

The EUR/USD pair is hovering above 1.1000, with the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data expected to trigger a major move. The US Dollar has been supported by recent geopolitical events and a potential Fed rate hike, with a 25 basis point increase now more likely.

For the past seven weeks, EUR/USD has traded between 1.1000 and 1.1200. A positive NFP surprise could break 1.1000 support and extend the downtrend, while disappointing data might boost the Euro. Despite Middle East concerns, the focus remains on US labor data, and analysts are cautious ahead of the release.

Traders, prepare to update your USD portfolio! The nonfarm payroll is on the horizon. The monthly report will be released today at 12:30 p.m. UTC.

The data could impact:
🔹 the U.S. dollar, bond, and stock markets
🔹 the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in the U.S. in November.

Previous U.S. labour market reports have shown stronger-than-expected figures. Market expectations for the September nonfarm payrolls report are set at a decrease of 140K.

A higher-than-expected number could strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a lower NFP figure could weaken the dollar, boosting gold's appeal.
Don't miss the opportunity! Trade in the Octa app via the link.

#Trading #Forex #WeeklyTradingCalendar #MarketUpdates

USD/JPY Analysis:

USD/JPY shows a neutral to downward bias but signals of potential upside remain as buyers attempt to push higher.

Key Indicators:

Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo):

Price is testing the bottom of the Kumo at 147.25. A break above could see resistance at Senkou Span B (147.78), followed by 148.00.

A continued bullish move could target the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 151.02.

RSI:

The RSI is trending upward, indicating bullish momentum in the near term, suggesting a possible further rise in price.

Potential Downside:

Support Levels:

First support at the 50-DMA around 145.38.

Key psychological support at 145.00.

Senkou Span A at 143.93.

Outlook:
If USD/JPY clears 147.25, further upside could target 148.00 and possibly the 200-DMA at 151.02. On the downside, a break below 145.38 could lead to declines toward 143.93.

#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 4 October.

Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ending September 28, exceeding the expected 220,000. This figure follows a revised previous week's total of 219,000.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2%, with a 4-week moving average of 224,250, down by 750 from the prior week.

Despite the rise in claims, the US Dollar Index remained stable, slightly below 102.00, up 0.3% at 101.90.