Edward Morra

$BTC

In case there is some weekend shakeout thing. This is the dip I would like to add.

Don't puke at the bottom

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lgw68V4K/

$DOGE

If you hold some DOGE, here is the chart with some targets for near future

https://x.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1847244660902891848

BTC Dominance to at least 60%+, then alts season

https://x.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1847236724805730728

$BTC

Everybody already posted about this diagonal a million times but still, feels like price been coiling up for long enough already and we can see an explosive move soon.
Whenever that happens - expect high volatility, we have been ranging for 8 months. So, be careful with leverage. When BTC sends - most altcoins probably going to suffer first, this is usually what happens (BTC pumps first - alts suffer -> BTC consolidates - alts send).

👨‍💻Big FTX Update

FTX repayments are coming and it’s time to finally make a big update. I know a lot of you are wondering whether you should wait till the official repayments or sell your claim now? When can we expect repayments realistically? How much to expect?What potential problems can we face? Etc.

Let’s discuss below:

▪️When can you expect repayments?

For claims < $50k one time payment: Jan ’25 - March ’25
For claims > $50k multiple payments: Q1-Q4 ’25
FTX bankruptcy plan was approved October 8th -> effective date will be set within 90 days from October 8th -> repayments will be made within 60 days from effective date.
So, realistically as early as January ’25. Worst case scenario - March ’25.

▪️How much can you expect?

For claims < $50k - around 118%* of claim value. One time payment.
For claims > $50k - up to 142%* of claim value. Multiple payments throughout 2025.
*claim value is calculated at the time of the bankruptcy i.e. November 2022.

▪️How will you get your repayment?

Most likely wire (bank) transfer. This might be a serious problem if you don’t have a bank account or don’t want your bank to know about your crypto money. You might need to explain the source of those funds (how/when did you get them etc) and possibly face tax consequences.
Ideally, you want to get repayments in stablecoins (USDC, USDT) to avoid bank questions and taxes. Unfortunately, this is still not decided. Time is running out and they (FTX) need to find a distribution partner asap. Stay tuned and hope for the best. However, if you don’t want to deal with uncertainties and risks - your best bet is to sell your claim for USDC now before the official repayments so you can deploy this money right into the market. Claim prices are the highest they ever been and for some people this may be the perfect option. You can find out how much you can get for your claim here. Let’s discuss whether you should consider selling your claim below.

▪️Should you sell your claim now or wait until official repayments?

Not financial/legal advice, DYOR.
▫️This is really something you should decide yourself. In my opinion, for claims under $50k - probably just wait until official payment. You will get it in 1 time payment. Unless of course you need that money right now and/or have a clear plan on how to use it to frontrun others who will most likely deploy money right back into crypto as soon as they receive it.
▫️For claims above $50k - it’s a tricky situation. You can easily get well over 100% for a large claim now. For 20-30% you are missing (remember official repayments for claims over $50k is up to 142%) you are not sacrificing up to another year of waiting till you get your whole repayment back. Considering crypto might easily pump 20-30%+ in a week, then selling a claim now and getting that liquidity before everyone else might be worth it.

If you decide to sell your claim or wondering how much can you get for it now, I recommend checking out FTX Creditor. I sold my claim (link to post) earlier this year and can absolutely vouch for them. Quick and smooth experience (can sell your claim within 24-48h, paid in USDC directly to your crypto wallet of choice).

Fill in the form to receive a quote on your claim. They are buying claims under $50k till 19th of October (4 days left). Larger claims till November. Use this link to get a better (best) quote:

👉 https://www.ftxcreditor.com/sell_claim?afmc=0007G8G3

$BTC

CME gap is filled!

We did it, bulls!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zJO9vb4j/

🔔Large amounts of crypto seized by chinese police from chinese ponzi scheme "Plus token" in 2019 began moving few hours ago. They have around $2 Billion in ETH that can be potentially transferred.
This doesn't mean they selling it (at least for now) but pay attention if they start deposit into exchanges in the coming days.

https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1821136313640481006

$BTC

We now have a fresh CME gap to the north. Usually all gaps are filled after.
Also, gaps aside these type of high volatility rapid nukes tend to retrace almost all the way, so keep holding your coins!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q4WTrTaR/

💭Current market thoughts | Black Monday

A lot of bad stuff happening at the same time:
- Middle east war tensions (Israel - Iran)
- Japan's market crash (YEN carry unwind), worst dump since 1987
- Stock market crash around the world: USA, Asia - Taiwan's worst day in 57 years etc.
- USA election, interest rates etc
- Biggest crypto shops and market makers (Jump, Genesis) liquidating hundreds of millions of their assets in ETH, SOL etc
- MtGox and Grayscale supply pressure

Really can't think of a worse scenario than what we have now. And its all happening simultaneously. In moments like this - its important not to lose hope and try not to overtrade / make big mistakes. Obviously, things will get back to normal sooner or later. Market had to deal with some bogeyman from the past, especially MtGox, Grayscale, governments selling (Germany, Usa). Once bad actors are out and supply overhang is absorbed - its going to be a smoother ride upwards. More than a billion $ was liquidated in the last 24h. These type of black swan events are pretty rare. Last ones we had were: FTX collapse November '22, massive nuke in May '21, covid-dump in March '20. Market always recovers after, and those who were brave enough to buy made handsome profits.

I started buying already yesterday (was a bit too early but anyway). Also set some more bids lower before bed and to be honest didn't think we would fill them and fill them so fast. Woke up completely underwater. This sucks but this is not the end of the world. Years of experience taught me to spread bids and never go above x1 of account value (no liquidation price). So, its time to be patient and wait for the recovery now.

I bought mostly SOL, BTC, ETH and some other alts (NEAR, SEI, AVAX etc).

$SOL | Update

Around +30% on spot.
Makes sense to shave some profits if you followed.

Thanks for playing 🤝

👨‍💻Germany is finally out of coins to sell.

https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany

💭We are still in a bear market (kind of). Bull has yet to start!

Let me explain 👇

This might be an unpopular opinion but few days ago I tweeted that we can still be in a bear market. The reason why this cycle feels so weird and empty is because ETF was introduced earlier than market was ready and kinda speedran the whole thing and we made a new (albeit small) marginal ATH. This led people turn bullish on everything else as well. On top of that we had a memecoin mania that also played with everyone. This is just my opinion but we made a new ATH way before we suppose to. See, historically BTC only was making new high after the halving (usually up to 6 months or more). This time we made new high before halving and failed to continue despite ETF flows. Majority of altcoins (with exception of few newer memecoins) never entered a bullish phase, some are retesting or even making new lows last week, suggesting we might still be in an accumulation. Weak price action across the board (including BTC) only confirms it.

Therefore, I think Q3 of this year has a nice chance of forming a real bottom and we see an expansion in Q4. We also have some solid fundamentals going into autumn. Lets review some positive signs (+):
▫️FTX might finally repay its victims around $15B by the end of this year (+)
▫️ETH ETF is coming quite soon (+)
▫️US elections, rate cuts, seasonality (+)
▫️German government will soon run out of BTC to sell (+)
Some negative factors:
▫️MtGox repayments. It can really take a while with this one but also it means the impact on the market will be spread out much smoother (-)
▫️Grayscale trust (both ETH and BTC), they still have a lot to sell but hopefully they will be more careful with execution (-)

Overall I think we are quite ok and headed into a bullish season finally. Definitively not the time to give up! Keep your morale up!

https://x.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1809314690553770348

👨‍💻Government of Germany has been selling its confiscated BTC for a while already. Initially they had around $3B worth of BTC.
Today was the largest outflow so far, almost $1 billion was sent to exchanges (presumably to sell). They are sending it across several major exchanges such as Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase etc. Now, the good news is they only have half left (~50%). Another $1.4B

Given the immense sell pressure we are still holding relatively ok. If today daily candle closes green - that would be a nice sign of absorption.
Once we clear this supply overhang - we can stabilize.

▫️Link to Arkham dashboard where you can check out how much BTC Germany still has:
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany

$ETH

Sticking to my plan. Added back more ETH.

ETF pump candle fully retraced. Send it!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/D1Qf1B5x/

$SOL

Started adding some $SOL on spot on this retest. Betting on this triangle fuckery pattern.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tSgMyEST/

$SOL

Triangle fuckery typical for crypto.

Stop out buyers -> trap sellers -> back inside the formation.

Lets see how it plays out, not setting any limit orders yet.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tc009AGF/

$ETH

After taking some profits in $3900s, I'm looking to add back (+more) at the levels below.

With impending (inevitable) ETF coming, I see no reason not to add (yes, I am retarded).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LpQZQ6UI/

$BTC

Looking to bid this bullish level just below $63k. Bulls - rejoice!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCSWXlAg/