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October Results: (So far)

QQQ -9% 🔴
QQQ -69%🔴
QQQ +38%🟢
MARA -86%🔴
SAVA (Put) +8%🟢
NVDA +55%🟢
CLSK +83%🟢
TLT +22%🟢
RIOT +14%🟢
HOOD +47%🟢
NVDA +30% 🟢
AMD +32% 🟢
AMD +21% 🟢

Total so far: +186% 🟢

October Results: (So far)

QQQ -9% 🔴
QQQ -69%🔴
QQQ +38%🟢
MARA -86%🔴
SAVA (Put) +8%🟢
NVDA +55%🟢
CLSK +83%🟢
TLT +22%🟢
RIOT +14%🟢
HOOD +47%🟢
NVDA +30% 🟢

Total so far: +133% 🟢

AI Energy Watch List 👀

Nuclear Energy:

1. NextEra Energy ( $NEE ) – Clean energy, including nuclear.

2. Exelon Corporation ( $EXC ) – Large nuclear operator.

3. Duke Energy ( $DUK ) – Operates nuclear plants.

4. Southern Company ( $SO ) – Nuclear energy investment.

5. BWX Technologies ( $BWXT ) – Nuclear components.

6. Dominion Energy ( $D ) – Operates nuclear facilities.

7. Entergy Corporation ( $ETR ) – Nuclear power provider.

Natural Gas:
1. Cheniere Energy ( $LNG ) – Natural gas export.

2. Kinder Morgan ( $KMI ) – Natural gas infrastructure.

3. Williams Companies ( $WMB ) – Gas transportation.

4. Enbridge ( $ENB ) – Gas pipelines.

5. EOG Resources ( $EOG ) – Natural gas production.

Renewable Energy:

1. NextEra Energy ( $NEE ) – Wind, solar, and nuclear.

2. First Solar ( $FSLR ) – Solar energy technology.

3. Ormat Technologies ( $ORA ) – Geothermal and clean energy.

4. Brookfield Renewable Partners ( $BEP ) – Wind and solar energy.

Energy Storage & Grid Technology:

1. Tesla ( $TSLA ) – Energy storage solutions.

2. Fluence Energy ( $FLNC ) – Energy storage and grid technology.

3. AES Corporation ( $AES ) – Renewable energy and storage.

4. Enphase Energy ( $ENPH ) – Solar energy storage.

Data Center Energy Solutions:
1. Equinix ( $EQIX ) – Data center infrastructure.

2. Digital Realty ( $DLR ) – Global data centers.

3. Switch Inc. ( $SWCH ) – Data centers powered by renewables.

Bullish Thesis for Natural Gas:

$UNG $BOIL

Natural Gas as a Bridge Fuel: Natural gas is critical in the global energy transition from coal to renewables. David Tepper emphasized its importance in meeting near-term energy demands, especially in regions like Asia where renewable infrastructure is not yet sufficient.

Rising Demand for LNG: Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase significantly, with U.S. LNG exports projected to rise by 17% in 2025. This creates strong growth potential for natural gas investments.

Supporting AI and Data Center Energy Needs: Natural gas is well-positioned to support the increasing energy demands of AI-driven industries. Companies like Microsoft are already using natural gas-powered fuel cells to ensure consistent energy for their data centers.

Hedge Fund Support for Natural Gas: Bernard Drury of Drury Capital has seen strong returns from natural gas investments, citing the commodity's recent price movements as a key driver of performance.

Medium-Term Price Upside: Natural gas prices are expected to remain stable in the short term but could rise in 2025 as global demand increases. Forecasts suggest Henry Hub prices could reach $3.30/MMBtu, making natural gas an attractive investment opportunity.

Long-Term Investment Potential: With its role in the clean energy transition, continued demand for LNG, and its support of AI growth, natural gas offers both short-term gains and long-term growth potential.

FTX is about to distribute up to $16 billion to creditors, potentially injecting significant liquidity into the crypto market. Many recipients are expected to reinvest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which could boost market activity and prices. While this could have a bullish effect, some volatility may occur as large sums re-enter the market.

- China announced major economic stimulus as their economy crashes.

- Retail investors are pouring into stocks, reminiscent of pandemic-era stimulus.

- China's problems started with a collapse in the real estate market.

- Evergrande, a major real estate company, went bankrupt.

- China's real estate market is down over 80% from its peak, even lower than 2008 levels.

- The country faces deflation, with prices declining over the past five quarters.

- While the rest of the world battles inflation, China struggles with deflation, signaling deeper issues.

- Ray Dalio compared China’s situation to Japan’s 1990 crisis, calling for economic restructuring.

- Consumers are hoarding cash, and businesses are suffering.

- China recently responded with:
1. Cutting reserve requirements by 0.5%

2. Reducing 7-day RRP by 0.2%

3. Lowering mortgage rates

4. Injecting $142 billion into banks

5. Enforcing rate cuts

- Chinese stocks soared after the stimulus announcement, with brokerages staying open 24/7 for new traders.

- The Chinese market saw its biggest jump since 2008, and US markets also surged, with the S&P 500 nearing 5800.

Key Events This Week:

1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Monday

2. September ISM Manufacturing data - Tuesday

3. JOLTs Jobs data - Tuesday

4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday

5. October OPEC Meeting - Wednesday

6. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

7. September Jobs Report - Friday

These 2 ‘Strong Buy’ Bitcoin-Driven Stocks Show Promising Upside, Says Macquarie


- Bitcoin Performance: Bitcoin is up 11.5% in September, traditionally its worst month.

- Market Outlook: Experts predict crypto stocks may rise as credit access improves following a rate cut.
- Macquarie Analyst's View: Paul Golding sees potential gains for Bitcoin-related stocks but notes not all stocks will benefit equally.

- Crypto Mining Evolution: Differentiation in mining comes from execution, technology, diversification, and capitalization.

- Stock Recommendations: Golding recommends two Bitcoin-driven stocks with expected 90%+ growth in the next 12 months.

Stock 1: CleanSpark (CLSK)
- Company Overview: CleanSpark is a Bitcoin miner using low-carbon renewable energy with mining operations in several U.S. states.

- Performance: CleanSpark has deployed 163,648 mining rigs and achieved a 22.6 EH/s hashrate, with 7,558 Bitcoin in holdings as of August.
- Recent Moves: Acquired additional mining sites in Mississippi and Wyoming, increasing hashrate to over 26 EH/s, with plans for further expansion.

- Financials: In Q3 FY24, CleanSpark reported $104.1 million in revenue (up 128% YoY) but missed forecasts. The company had an EPS loss of $1.03.

- Analyst Rating: Golding gives CLSK an Outperform rating with a $20 price target, indicating a 98% potential gain.

- Consensus: Strong Buy rating, with a 129% average projected gain.

Stock 2: Riot Platforms (RIOT)

- Company Overview: Riot Platforms operates the largest crypto mining operation in North America and is expanding with new facilities.

- Mining Capacity: Rockdale facility has a capacity of 700 MW and a 14.7 EH/s hashrate. The Corsicana facility is under development with 400 MW completed and a 7.5 EH/s hashrate.

- Performance: Riot produced 10.4 Bitcoin per day in August and holds 10,019 Bitcoin, a 37% YoY increase.

- Financials: Q2 revenues were $70 million, down 8.7% YoY, with an EPS loss of 32 cents per share.

-Analyst Rating: Golding gives RIOT an Outperform rating with a $15 price target, suggesting a 93% gain.

- Consensus: Strong Buy rating, with a 116% average projected gain.

What is David Tepper buying in China? "Everything," he says. "ETFs, I would do futures - everything. Everything."

September VIP Trade Alert Results

Options:

SPY -24% 🔴
FIS +46%🟢
RIOT -64%🔴
ARKK -64%🔴
RIOT -96%🔴
NVDA +29%🟢
RIOT +6%🟢
ARKK +34%🟢
USO +39%🟢
AAPL +12% 🟢
SPY +85%🟢
MARA -12%🔴
MARA +22%🟢
HOOD +23🟢
PLTR +18%🟢
SPY +35%🟢
SPY +4%🟢
SPY +31%🟢

Result: +124% 🟢

FX:
USD/JPY +31 Pips 🟢

$MU

- Micron Technology (MU) earnings report: September 25, 2024, 4:05 PM ET.

- Consensus estimate: $1.15 EPS on $7.65 billion in revenue (90.8% YoY growth).

- Earnings Whisper: $1.21 EPS.
- Guidance: $1.00 to $1.16 EPS on $7.40B to $7.80B revenue.

- Investor sentiment: Bearish, 76.8% expect a beat.

- Short interest: Up 24.1% since last earnings; stock down 33.1% from $104.95 high.

- Stock 13.4% below 200-day moving average.

- Options market: Pricing in 10.1% move post-earnings; average 7.6% move in past quarters.

- Notable option activity: 14,597 contracts of $170 calls expiring November 15, 2024.

Bitcoin resistance sits at 67.5k

$SPX Implied move this week at +/- 75 points

The chart shows a bearish outlook on oil due to a sharp drop in net long positions (red line) and an increase in short positions (yellow area). This indicates that money managers are betting on lower oil prices, likely driven by expectations of weaker demand or oversupply.

- The stock market slump doesn't necessarily signal an impending recession.

- Recent U.S. economic outlook has dimmed, but the sharp stock selloff seems driven by obscure forces, not directly indicating a recession.

- S&P 500 is down 9% since reaching an all-time high three weeks ago, influenced by technical factors like trades on the Japanese yen, big-tech stocks, and low volatility.

- Despite alarming data, Federal Reserve rate cuts could help avoid a downturn.

- Wall Street action resembles a routine market shake-up caused by faltering popular trades.

- Calm financial markets lead traders to risky, leveraged strategies, which fuel volatility when conditions change.

- Hedge funds have exploited U.S.-Japanese interest rate gaps, but this strategy is faltering with rate changes in both countries.

- U.S. stock rally relied on mega-cap tech stocks benefiting from the AI boom; recent declines reflect valuation adjustments, not a crisis.

- Nvidia shares exemplify this shift, up 107% for the year despite a recent decline.

- Analysts at LPL Financial note the market is unwinding from a strong rally, not entering a crisis.

- Market selloff benefits American consumers as money floods into U.S. bonds, driving interest rates lower.

- Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.34%, the lowest in over 18 months.

- Bottom line: The stock market is not the economy.