Eugene, CEO of EarnPark

The collective analysis of these on-chain metrics presents a broadly optimistic picture for Bitcoin's long-term prospects:

Support for growth:
Many metrics indicate a strong support for continued growth. Long-term holders are accumulating, stablecoin inflows are increasing, and miner activity suggests confidence in BTC's future.
Market sentiment:
The sentiment among holders and traders remains positive, with a significant number of long positions and a steady outflow of BTC from exchanges indicating trust in Bitcoin's long-term value.
Supply dynamics:
The reduced selling pressure from long-term holders and miners, combined with growing stablecoin capitalization, suggests a stable and supportive environment for BTC.

❓Should you buy or sell?
While on-chain metrics show a favorable long-term outlook for Bitcoin, it's crucial to remember that market conditions can change rapidly.

Here are some considerations based on the analysis:
Buy: If you have a long-term investment horizon, the current metrics suggest that Bitcoin is well-supported for future growth. Accumulating BTC during periods of stability and lower prices could be a prudent strategy.
Hold: If you are already invested in Bitcoin, the metrics support holding your position. The market sentiment and support levels indicate potential for future appreciation.
Caution: For short-term traders, it's essential to stay vigilant. While the long-term outlook is positive, short-term fluctuations and pullbacks are possible. Pay close attention to market trends and be prepared for volatility.

Will you buy?🤔

Derivatives metrics group:

1️⃣ Futures Perpetual Funding Rate
This mechanism ensures that the price of a futures contract remains close to the price of the underlying asset.
Traders either pay or receive funding to/from the opposite side to keep the contract price aligned with the index price.

Positive Funding Rate: Indicates more long positions; traders are generally optimistic.
Negative Funding Rate: Indicates more short positions; traders are generally pessimistic.

Current situation: On March 31, 2024, the Perpetual Funding Rate (90d) reached its highest value within the current upward trend for Bitcoin.
From April 1 to May 10, 2024, the metric showed continuous decline, indicating a local decrease in the number of long positions.

Globally, the metric remains above "0", suggesting a positive funding rate and more long positions compared to short ones.
The Futures Perpetual Funding Rate has stayed positive for over 430 consecutive days, showing that participants have grown accustomed to BTC's growth.
The excitement peaked in late March with record high funding rates within the upward trend, but has since started to decline. Although participants continue to open long positions, the intensity has reduced compared to a month ago.

Overall, the number of long positions remains high, reflecting very bullish and optimistic sentiments.
Rating: 5/10 in favor of buyers.

The Derivatives metrics group highlights a significant trend in the Futures Perpetual Funding Rate, which reached a peak on March 31, 2024, before continuously declining from April 1 to May 10, 2024.
This indicates a local decrease in the number of long positions, but the metric remains positive overall, suggesting more long positions than short ones and a generally bullish sentiment among traders.

The positive funding rate for over 430 days indicates sustained optimism towards Bitcoin's growth.
Although the intensity of opening long positions has decreased, the overall number of open long positions is still high, reflecting a very optimistic market sentiment.

Exchange metrics group:

1️⃣Exchange Netflow Volume
The difference between the volumes entering exchanges and exiting exchanges, i.e., the net flow of coins to/from exchanges.
Exchange metrics are based on tagged exchange address data, which is continuously updated by Glassnode developers, as well as data science methods and statistical information that change over time.
Due to this, these metrics are variable — the data is stable, but especially the latest data points are subject to minor fluctuations over time. Hence, we use the 90-day EMA to smooth out unnecessary noise on the graph.
Current situation: Since June 2023, there has been a global outflow of BTC from exchanges.
On February 1, 2024, the Exchange Netflow Volume turned negative and has been decreasing steadily.
The 90-day average value is -761 BTC (compared to -1,932 BTC last month). This means that on average, participants withdrew 761 BTC more from exchanges than they deposited each day in April, including the first week of May, indicating a prevailing outflow of BTC from exchanges.
Rating: 6/10 in favor of buyers.

The Exchange metrics group indicates a continuing trend of BTC outflow from exchanges since June 2023.
The Exchange Netflow Volume metric turned negative on February 1, 2024, and has been decreasing steadily.
The 90-day average shows that more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, with an average daily net outflow of 761 BTC in April and the first week of May.
This persistent outflow suggests that holders are moving their BTC off exchanges, potentially indicating a positive long-term sentiment towards holding rather than selling.

If watching the market and your positions makes you feel uneasy, scared, or anxious, consider it the cost of future super profits.

In a market like this, more and more people start making mistakes.

For big players, there’s no need for anything fancy – it's simply "pressure the price" and "pressure the time," and people will start making mistakes on their own. ⏳

Always ask yourself:

🤔 Who is buying now, and who is selling?
❓ Who is making a mistake?
🔍 Who do you want to follow?

Miners metrics group:

1️⃣ Issuance
Reflects the number of new BTC coins mined each day (orange color). The graph is somewhat inconsistent due to the natural variability in the network’s hashrate and the number of blocks mined per day (and thus the number of coins). Halving events, marked by dotted vertical lines, occur every 210,000 blocks, roughly every 4 years, reducing the number of BTC mined per block.
Current situation: Following the fourth halving on April 20, 2024, issuance has decreased as expected.
Rating: 10/10 in favor of buyers.

2️⃣ Number of Days Until Halving
Estimates the time remaining until the next Bitcoin halving.
Current situation: The fourth halving occurred on April 20, 2024. As of May 10, 2024, the metric shows 1532 days until the next halving, according to Glassnode (data still in calibration).
Rating: Informative metric, not directly rated.

3️⃣ Puell Multiple
A cyclical oscillator that captures the overall behavior of the mining market. Calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of Bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of the daily issuance.
Components:
Daily total miner revenue in USD.
Annual average miner revenue over 365 days.
Current situation: As of May 10, 2024, the Puell Multiple (90d) reached 1.38, indicating that the current daily revenue is slightly above the annual average, suggesting that the mining market is stabilizing post-halving.
Rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

4️⃣ Miner Net Position Change
Indicates the net change in BTC held by miners' addresses, providing insights into their selling or holding behavior.
Current situation: Since November 21, 2023, miners have primarily been selling BTC, increasing selling pressure until March 30, 2024. Recently, the metric shows a decline in selling pressure, indicating that fewer BTC are being moved from miners' addresses, reducing their impact on the market.
Rating: 6/10 in favor of buyers.

Total Miners metrics group rating: 7.7/10 in favor of buyers.

The Miners metrics group highlights significant changes due to the recent halving event.
The Issuance metric reflects the expected decrease in new BTC mined daily post-halving, signaling a supply reduction.
The Puell Multiple indicates that the current daily miner revenue is stabilizing slightly above the annual average, suggesting a normalization in the mining market post-halving.
The Miner Net Position Change metric shows a recent decrease in selling pressure from miners, indicating reduced impact on BTC price. Overall, these metrics suggest a positive outlook for Bitcoin, with continued support from the mining sector amidst the global upward trend.

Lifespan metrics group:

1️⃣Supply-Adjusted CDD
This metric tracks the movement of old coins that have been in cold storage for a long period.
Strong spikes indicate the destruction of a large number of coin days, suggesting old coins are being moved, likely for selling.
Calculation: Coin Days = Number of coins * Number of days the coins were inactive.
Current situation: A sharp decline indicates reduced interest in selling old coins, suggesting a potential short-term pullback in Bitcoin within the broader upward trend.
Rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

2️⃣Binary CDD
Binary Coin Days Destroyed (Binary CDD) evaluates whether the volume of destroyed coin days for a given period is above or below the long-term historical average.
1: When the measured Supply-Adjusted CDD is greater than the long-term average.
0: When the measured Supply-Adjusted CDD is less than the long-term average.
Current situation: Recent aggressive declines suggest a sharp decrease in old coin movement.
The quarterly period with EMA is used to filter out daily noise and provide clearer information.
Rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

Total Lifespan metrics group rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

The Lifespan metrics group shows a significant local decline in the interest of long-term holders to sell their old coins, indicating a potential short-term pullback in Bitcoin within the global upward trend.
Despite this local change, the global outlook remains positive, supported by the behavior of these metrics.
The Supply-Adjusted CDD and Binary CDD suggest a decreased likelihood of old coins being sold, indicating a stable long-term outlook for BTC.

Stablecoins metrics group:

1️⃣Aggregate Supplies
This metric shows the combined supply of the four leading stablecoins: USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI.
These stablecoins are distributed across multiple blockchains, including Ethereum.

Current situation:
The total market capitalization of stablecoins continued to grow in April, increasing by more than $4.28 billion over the past 32 days (including the first week of May).
The majority of this growth was driven by USDT, which saw its market capitalization increase by $3.95 billion from April 8 to May 10.
The growth in stablecoin capitalization has been ongoing since September 30, 2023.
Rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

The Stablecoins metrics group highlights a continuous increase in the total market capitalization of stablecoins, with a significant contribution from USDT.
From April 8 to May 10, USDT's market cap alone increased by $3.95 billion.
The growth in stablecoin capitalization started on September 30, 2023, and has been rising steadily since then.
Overall, the increasing market capitalization of stablecoins indicates growing demand and adoption, suggesting a favorable outlook for the market.

This trend supports the broader cryptocurrency market by providing liquidity and stability, which can be beneficial for further growth and investment.

Supply metrics group:

1️⃣Supply Delta
Demonstrates how strong and weak hands accumulate and distribute their Bitcoins. It serves as a leading indicator for identifying new price peaks and risk zones, helping to determine cycle tops and accumulation zones.
Current situation:
Long-Term Holder Supply is increasing slightly since April 19, 2024, indicating more coins are being held by long-term holders.
Short-Term Holder Supply is decreasing, indicating fewer coins are held by short-term holders.
Rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

2️⃣Percent Supply in Profit
Shows the percentage of the total supply that is in profit, providing insight into the profitability of the circulating supply.
Percent Supply in Profit is calculated by dividing the Supply in Profit by the Total Supply and multiplying by 100% to convert to a percentage.
Components:
Supply in Profit (the amount of supply that is in profit)
Supply in Loss (the amount of supply that is in loss)
Current situation:
This metric indicates a positive trend as a higher percentage of the supply is in profit, suggesting favorable market conditions.
Rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

Total Supply metrics group rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

The Supply metrics group indicates that in mid-April, long-term holders (LTH) stopped distributing their coins to short-term holders (STH).
Starting from April 19, 2024, the Long-Term Holder Supply began to increase slightly, showing that the number of coins under the control of long-term holders is rising.
At the same time, the supply held by short-term holders began to decrease.

Сhanges from April to early May:
Long-Term Holder Supply: 14,028,594 BTC (+42,436 BTC over 32 days)
Short-Term Holder Supply: 3,357,333 BTC (-26,843 BTC over 32 days).

From December 3, 2023, to April 19, 2024, approximately 930,000 BTC were redistributed by long-term holders. However, since April 19, the trend has shifted.
Globally, the upward trend remains a priority. Locally, there could be a significant pullback within the global upward trend.

5️⃣Net Realized Profit/Loss
The net amount of profit or loss realized by all coin holders, indicating capital inflow or outflow.
Current situation: Negative values suggest losses are being realized, potentially signaling investor capitulation and a higher chance of upward reversal.
Rating: 9/10 in favor of buyers.

6️⃣Realized P/L Ratio
Tracks the ratio of realized profit to realized loss, indicating the market's profit-taking intensity.
Current situation: High values indicate profit-taking is significantly higher than loss realization.
Rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

7️⃣Yearly Realized Profit/Loss (Relative)
Combines annual profit and loss data normalized by Realized Cap, allowing for accurate cycle analysis.
Current situation: Shows net relative annual realized profit/loss, indicating the market's overall profit/loss state.
Rating: 9/10 in favor of buyers.

Total Ratios metrics group rating: 7.7/10 in favor of buyers.

The Profits/Losses metrics group indicates a mixed local trend but maintains a globally bullish outlook for BTC.
Long-term and short-term holders show significant unrealized profits, demonstrating belief and hope in continued BTC growth.
High levels of realized profit further support a positive market sentiment.
Overall, these metrics suggest a favorable long-term outlook for Bitcoin.

Profits/Losses metrics group:

1️⃣LTH-NUPL (Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Modified version of NUPL, using only coins older than 155 days to assess market sentiment.
Current situation: In the "Belief" stage, indicating significant unrealized profits among long-term holders.
Rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

2️⃣STH-NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Measures unrealized profit/loss for coins younger than 155 days, indicating the network's profit/loss state.
Current situation: In the "Hope" stage, indicating short-term holders have more unrealized profits than losses.
Rating: 8/10 in favor of buyers.

3️⃣Realized Profit
Quantifies the total realized profit in USD for all moved coins, indicating capital inflow and network profitability.
Current situation: High levels of profit realization in a bullish market, with large holders selling profitable coins.
Rating: 7/10 in favor of buyers.

4️⃣Realized Loss
Measures the total realized loss in USD for all moved coins where the previous transaction price was higher than the current price.
Current situation: Peaks during aggressive price declines, indicating panic selling.
Rating: 6/10 in favor of buyers.